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 The ISEQ Thread Part I - March 2008 - October 2008 **LOCKED**

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PostSubject: Re: The ISEQ Thread Part I - March 2008 - October 2008 **LOCKED**   Wed Oct 08, 2008 3:18 pm

If they're rioting after an 8% drop we should be nuking Leinster House following the drop we've had.
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PostSubject: Re: The ISEQ Thread Part I - March 2008 - October 2008 **LOCKED**   Wed Oct 08, 2008 3:33 pm

floatingingalway wrote:
OK. Now I'm getting scared - Riots in Hong Kong

I guess this is what Lenihan, Cowen and Bruton were trying to avoid.

It is hard to imagine communist China coming to the rescue of the Hong Kong capitalists. Imagine trying to justify that one at a general meeting of the Communist Party!
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PostSubject: Re: The ISEQ Thread Part I - March 2008 - October 2008 **LOCKED**   Wed Oct 08, 2008 7:02 pm

What are you worried about floating in galway. Did they not cut the interest rate like I said and did not interest rates rise like I said. You should be out in Ballinasloe fighting with knackers. Excellent preperation for the upcoming riots
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PostSubject: Re: The ISEQ Thread Part I - March 2008 - October 2008 **LOCKED**   Wed Oct 08, 2008 7:04 pm

Youngdan, is it a possibility that you are related to George Lee?
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PostSubject: Re: The ISEQ Thread Part I - March 2008 - October 2008 **LOCKED**   Wed Oct 08, 2008 7:10 pm

floatingingalway wrote:
Shelter and food are a right taken as given for every other animal except the human animal. What is fundamentally wrong with the capitalist system is that it attempts to put a price on things that should not have a price on them.

People keep wondering when the "bottom" will be. The "bottom" will be when the ordinary people realise that a small number of people have made huge profits on keeping up the illusion that food and shelter have a value.

Debt slavery is about to be blown out of the water, with any luck.

Worth talking about, and imo worth a thread of its own. Where is the "line in the sand" beyond which with capitalism should not be allowed to persist, and how could it be replaced by something better?
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PostSubject: Re: The ISEQ Thread Part I - March 2008 - October 2008 **LOCKED**   Wed Oct 08, 2008 7:10 pm

johnfás wrote:
Youngdan, is it a possibility that you are related to George Lee?

It's a definite possibility.
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PostSubject: Re: The ISEQ Thread Part I - March 2008 - October 2008 **LOCKED**   Wed Oct 08, 2008 7:41 pm

You must have heard of Olddan's reputation.
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PostSubject: Re: The ISEQ Thread Part I - March 2008 - October 2008 **LOCKED**   Wed Oct 08, 2008 8:58 pm

youngdan,

where did you get your economics education?
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PostSubject: Re: The ISEQ Thread Part I - March 2008 - October 2008 **LOCKED**   Wed Oct 08, 2008 9:41 pm

youngdan wrote:
What are you worried about floating in galway. Did they not cut the interest rate like I said and did not interest rates rise like I said. You should be out in Ballinasloe fighting with knackers. Excellent preperation for the upcoming riots




Sorted
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PostSubject: Re: The ISEQ Thread Part I - March 2008 - October 2008 **LOCKED**   Wed Oct 08, 2008 10:09 pm

Somebody today decided that the ISEQ should not go below 3,000.

http://www.ise.ie/app/popup_graph.asp?INDEX_TYPE=
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PostSubject: Re: The ISEQ Thread Part I - March 2008 - October 2008 **LOCKED**   Wed Oct 08, 2008 11:20 pm

cactus flower wrote:
Somebody today decided that the ISEQ should not go below 3,000.

http://www.ise.ie/app/popup_graph.asp?INDEX_TYPE=

cheers cheers cheers Yay! - Apocalypse: Averted
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PostSubject: Re: The ISEQ Thread Part I - March 2008 - October 2008 **LOCKED**   Thu Oct 09, 2008 1:04 am

That is an excellent start Floatingingalway. A suitable slashhook for men, women and children. Slings now for getting a bit of speed into the stones and away you go.

My formal education is in civil engineering from UCG. I have been an options buyer for years. It is a very difficult trade and I have lost more than won like everyone else. I went entirely to physical some time ago as I believe it to be the trade of a lifetime here.

I have no idea how many books on the markets I have read down through the years but nowadays you can learn anything you need to know easily enough.
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PostSubject: Re: The ISEQ Thread Part I - March 2008 - October 2008 **LOCKED**   Thu Oct 09, 2008 4:21 am



Asia bit of a mixed bag tonight but trend is down.
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PostSubject: Re: The ISEQ Thread Part I - March 2008 - October 2008 **LOCKED**   Thu Oct 09, 2008 6:57 am

rockyracoon wrote:
Squire, I tend to agree with you but something isn't just quite right and the markets are reflecting (stock markets for all the ballyhoo about their forward pricing sagacity, are often as not just as reactionary) the growing uncertainty between long term credit destruction and short term stimulus. Youngdan has a far better grasp of how the Fed and others are injecting 100's of billions into the system and where this money is coming from and ultimately resting.

I gladly defer to YoungDan on such matters. Right now I am more interested in trying to convey what this actually means to a business trying to make decisions. My interests are prosaic and practical, but with this sort of backdrop sane business decisions, are proving well nigh impossible. If I am typical of many many others that is a major recessionary trend. Money not used is dead money. (Isn't there is some Biblical tale of a son who sits on his money and gets told off?)

Stock markets IMO have all the sagacity of a herd of wildebeest that have scented water. Herd instinct rules.

I anticipated the interest rate cut today and (with others) thought it may have been more, but agree they are trying desperately to stimulate now and all the BOE and ECB remits are out the window. It is like trying to put off the day of reckoning. That said from what I have seen recently (involvement in loan defaults) interest rate cuts will help a lot of people who are on the margins now, but further down the line is another matter. They need to reduce debt, if not by interest rates then they need to devise other means. I don't care how they do it but it must happen. As for western currency, they are over valued.

What strikes me as being so absurd is there are funds sitting. Trillions of dollars, but no one will move because they could well lose their shirt.

Yesterday I was at a meeting that, including prep., and considered weighing up after, went on from 8 am to 10 pm. Basically grinding through our options scheme by scheme, proposal by proposal. There was not a lot of optimism, not any.

Key to property is buying the site at a price that allows you to make a profit after construction. What became clear was that none of us can predict with any certainty the future value of property or rentals anywhere. Site values may plummet in the coming year, but there again will people be willing to sell at greatly reduced prices? Supply and demand, but with a serious final cost consequence.

I think they were perhaps over doing the gloom as what struck me as odd is that many had strong views on potential land values and sounded off, without considering that doing nothing also has risk. We can guess based on reasonable assumptions of a recession, but if this turns severe we end up with money tied up in sites that may sit undeveloped for a decade. Even if there is a need for housing, or whatever, there may not be the financial reason to construct. So what do you do but hold monthly reviews. More unproductive time. Each month that we sit means that thousands or jobs are not created. That is just one group of businesses and I am sure that this is being repeated over and over.

Not many considered that holding the currency in their pocket may prove less reliable than a land bank. My view was to aim towards buying sites which had potential, but which needed redevelopment. Sites that have a good and stable rental income. Invest in the boring. Secures some income. The time for some of us to break ranks may be approaching.


rockyracoon wrote:
Given the markets' decline today and over the last several days, one has to feel that even the big boys and girls in the unit, hedge and sovereign funds are bailing out of the markets. I'm personally committed to stay out of the markets until I see a quantifiable return to "normalacy" and then a bit more. Yet, I can see some lovely bargains lying around the market floors.

Hedge fund managers are watching, that is a definite, profit is their mantra. God only knows what Sovereign funds are doing. They tend to have long term objectives. They could enter the market, take a loss and wait. Equally they could have motive in staying out.

rockyracoon wrote:
In the "real" world there are many viable businesses that will need access for day-to-day funding facilities and this is where everyone's attention is focused. I'm not talking about grand building projects but on payrolls and stocking inventory.

Everyone is cutting back, reducing stock, staff etc. Those that don't go to the wall. It can become a trend that feeds on itself and becomes uncontrollable. Strict monitory types may well criticise governments, but the problem with purists is often lack of balance, inflexibility and myopia.

rockyracoon wrote:
Every Western govt, it seems, is scrambling to gather enough cash to inject into the credit pipe line. They are borrowing these funds. From who? I'm tending to believe that they are letting the printing presses slide a little which is evidenced by some commodity price increases.

Agree.

rockyracoon wrote:
Hell, the "experts" in govts have called this all wrong, and at this point I wonder if anyone really has a grasp on the entire situation. The ad hoc national approach in Europe tends to confirm the suspicions that there is no short-term or long-term grasp on the situation. gl

Governments were not paying a lot of attention to what experts were telling them. I am sure that some in the BOE and the UK Treasury (to take an example) were airing some alarming views. However what politician is going to leap in and end a spending binge, especially if it is one that increases tax revenue? Even now just listen to the two moppets the Democrats and Republicans have served up, spend, spend, spend. Politicians seem to be genetically predisposed to spending plans and averse to delivering bad news. I am not so sure that the current political structures serve us well.

Europe's adhoc approach was depressing, but the structures are wrong. I don't believe you can effectively have free trade and a common currency without political unity. Ireland's little guarantee highlights the problems that ensue. Basically if Ireland were outside the Euro it would be adrift in the ocean with Iceland, but when the problem became critical it was an Irish 'solution' as there is no effective and fast European means of arriving at a decision on such matters, and there should be. But equally by going it alone we created all sorts of problems for others. I do know the UK lot were working on plans for some time. Yesterday did not come entirely out of the blue.


Asia generally is up.

Time for a few hours sleep.
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PostSubject: Re: The ISEQ Thread Part I - March 2008 - October 2008 **LOCKED**   Thu Oct 09, 2008 9:06 am

I was talking to a guy from UBS last night who said that Credit Suisse have a large play in the running based on falling markets. If it pans out for them, they will earn hugely from this. I asked him how big was the potential profit they could make from this. "Enough to bail out Iceland single-handedly". Which is big.

He also said to watch Credit Suisse's quarterly figures due to be released on October 23rd. I asked him was there any significance to this. He just said "Not only do I expect them to buck the trend, they will have enough to go shopping (for banks) big time".

Interesting.
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PostSubject: Re: The ISEQ Thread Part I - March 2008 - October 2008 **LOCKED**   Thu Oct 09, 2008 10:44 am

This is a difficult article to follow but the whole idea of the Fed is to confuse. I hope to get back to this

http://seekingalpha.com/article/98991-how-bad-is-the-fed-s-balance-sheet

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