cactus flower wrote:

Were you able to find a graph that would show that warming is faster than it was in the previous spikes Ibis?

I''ll have a look at the C02 absorbtion of longwave radiation later, thanks for that.

It depends to some extent what graph you pick, obviously - I used the one above because it's got nice thin lines - but the rates of change in historical climate change are very much slower than current rates of change.

This is the graph I'm interested in - the spike 130,000 years ago, for example. Is the red vertical above the 0 representing C02 levels in the last 100 years?

[img][/img]

Your second graph covers the same period, so it is useful. Do you have a link to the article it goes with?

Sure:

http://math.ucr.edu/home/baez/temperature/temperature.html

In order to focus minds on how climate change can effect the planet, one might want to take a look back at what is thought to be the worst extinction event in Earth's history. No not the dinosaur one, 65m years ago, but well before that.


During the Permian era period (between 299 and 251 million years ago) an extinction event occurred which brought this period to an end and could very well have stopped the clock of life on Earth completely, --it is known as The Permian Triassic Mass Extinction event, or more informally, as the "Great Dying" or the "mother of all mass extinctions". About 90% of the earth’s species were wiped out.

The thing is, this end-Permian global mass extinction - some 251 millions years ago - was most likely caused by global warming.
(there are other extinctions with similar footprints but this is the most dramatic.)


In this case the carbon dioxide initially injected into the atmosphere seems to have come from 'early Earth' style flood basalt, volcanic eruptions and/or a meteor strike, - this was the forcing rather than our carbon emissions today.

This forcing increased the temperature enough to start the planet's own carbon and methane to take over - the methane hydrates started coming apart at the seems.

The methane sitting at the bottom of the ocean, started to move, resulting in the sudden shift in carbon isotopes we see in the record.
There is a rapid change in the isotopic composition of carbon in carbonate rocks during the extinction, the extinction also concurred with a rise in sea level.

The ratio of theses isotopes of oxygen shows a six degrees centigrade increase in global temperature. This was the last time there was such a global rise of temperature.

I think six degrees is around the upper estimate, or range, produced by the IPCC for global warming by 2100?

As far as I'm aware, I don't think even the most recent IPCC model takes into account the possibility of a partial melting of the methane hydrate in vast quantities around the fringes of the polar seas?

But back to the result of the temperature increase way-back-when.
The result of such a rapid change in temperature on life on Earth, was of course devastating. The seas were wiped out almost clean, the only survivors were those adapted to the near-absence of oxygen.
On land, only two four-legged reptile-like animals survived and one, a pig-like creature dominated the land's surface.

It took one hundred and fifty million years before the world would become as biodiverse as it was in the Permian.


also see
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Permian_Age
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Permian_Age#Permian-Triassic_extinction_event



The Permian–Triassic extinction event, labeled "End P" here, is the most significant extinction event in this plot for marine genera which produce large numbers of fossils.




The world around the time of the P-Tr extinction. The Siberian Traps eruptions occurred on the eastern shore of the shallow sea (paler blue) at the north of the map. The earlier Emeishan eruptions occurred on the north edge of the almost enclosed shallow sea just north of the equator - at this time the blocks that currently form China and South-East Asia were just emerging.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Permian%E2%80%93Triassic_extinction_event

The Day the Seas Died
http://www.dailygalaxy.com/my_weblog/2008/12/the-day-the-sea.html

Quote :

...The recent discovery of sections from the Permo-Triassic boundary in South China has, however, allowed more detailed analysis to take place, leading to a conclusion that the Great Dying was probably caused by poisonous gas, released by a massive volcanic event in Siberia, known as the Siberian Traps, which spewed about 3 million cubic kilometers of basalt lava over vast swathes of the Siberian landmass (to put this in perspective, the largest eruption in historical time, of Mt Pinatubo in Iceland in 1783, released 12 cubic km of lava onto the island).

Payne, a paleobiologist who joined the Stanford faculty in 2005, studies the Permian-Triassic extinction and the following 4 million years of instability in the global carbon cycle.

In the July issue of the Geological Society of America Bulletin, Payne presented evidence that a massive, rapid release of carbon may have triggered this extinction.

"People point to the fossil record as a place where we can learn about how our actions today may affect the future course of evolution," Payne said. "That's certainly true: The deep geologic record provides context for modern events. We may miss very important processes or underestimate the magnitude of changes in the future by using only the past couple thousand years as a baseline."...

[...]

Quote :

.... Douglas Erwin, curator of the Paleozoic invertebrates collection at the Smithsonian National Museum of Natural History, has dubbed this extinction event "the greatest biodiversity crisis in the history of life."

An unusually long period of time passed before biological diversity began to reappear. Scientists disagree on the causes of this extinction. However, nearly all explanations cite the high levels of greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide, low levels of oxygen in the oceans and high levels of toxic gases....

Quote :

...."This end-Permian extinction is beginning to look a whole lot like the world we live in right now," Payne said. "The good news, if there is good news, is that we have not yet released as much carbon into the atmosphere as would be hypothesized for the end-Permian extinction. Whether or not we get there depends largely on future policy decisions and what happens over the next couple of centuries."....

That was back when the earth was spewing its guts out left right and centre though wasn't it ? There was a lot more activity on back then anyway - do you know how much CO2 was coughed out simultaneously by the 700 active supervolcanos that were on the go at once by any chance ?

I'd say this might have happened over a very short period too - maybe two or three months or even less. Here we're talking about in this century at least a century if not two for the earth to adjust to a lot smaller quantity of CO2.

Some rocks naturally capture CO2 you know - the Burren could be getting bigger as a result for example.

If ever I ever feel a bit low, I remind myself that we could all be gone in a minute if a meteor hit us. For some reason I don't understand, that cheers me up

cactus flower wrote:

If ever I ever feel a bit low, I remind myself that we could all be gone in a minute if a meteor hit us. For some reason I don't understand, that cheers me up

Perfectly understandable, I would say.

Auditor #9 wrote:

That was back when the earth was spewing its guts out left right and centre though wasn't it ? There was a lot more activity on back then anyway - do you know how much CO2 was coughed out simultaneously by the 700 active supervolcanos that were on the go at once by any chance ?

I'd say this might have happened over a very short period too - maybe two or three months or even less. Here we're talking about in this century at least a century if not two for the earth to adjust to a lot smaller quantity of CO2.

Some rocks naturally capture CO2 you know - the Burren could be getting bigger as a result for example.

Well I think it's much longer that a few months. It was expected to be millions of years but it's now believed to have occurred over more like thousands of years with respect to the basalt eruptions and resultant carbon dioxide and methane emissions. The graph is useful above too.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Permian_Age#Permian-Triassic_extinction_event

Quote :

The final stages of the Permian saw two flood basalt events. A small one centered at Emeishan in China occurred at the same time as the end-Guadalupian extinction pulse, in an area which was close to the equator at the time.[81] The flood basalt eruptions which produced the Siberian Traps constituted one of the largest known volcanic events on Earth and covered over 200,000 square kilometers (77,220.4 sq mi) with lava. The Siberian Traps eruptions were formerly thought to have lasted for millions of years, but recent research dates them to 251.2 ± 0.3 Ma — immediately before the end of the Permian.[1][82]

http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/305/5691/1760

Quote :

Age and Timing of the Permian Mass Extinctions: U/Pb Dating of Closed-System Zircons
Roland Mundil,1 Kenneth R. Ludwig,1 Ian Metcalfe,2 Paul R. Renne1,3

The age and timing of the Permian-Triassic mass extinction have been difficult to determine because zircon populations from the type sections are typically affected by pervasive lead loss and contamination by indistinguishable older xenocrysts. Zircons from nine ash beds within the Shangsi and Meishan sections (China), pretreated by annealing followed by partial attack with hydrofluoric acid, result in suites of consistent and concordant uranium/lead (U/Pb) ages, eliminating the effects of lead loss. The U/Pb age of the main pulse of the extinction is 252.6 ± 0.2 million years, synchronous with the Siberian flood volcanism, and it occurred within the quoted uncertainty.

The rocks are not just one kind and are found across a global boundary layer similar to the 65m Cretaceous–Tertiary dinosaur extinction boundary.

Quote :

Three general areas are especially noted for their extensive Permian deposits - the Ural Mountains (where Perm itself is located), China, and the southwest of North America, where the Permian Basin in the U.S. state of Texas is so named because it has one of the thickest deposits of Permian rocks in the world.

As far as I know about this subject (and I'm not an expert but I've seen quite a few documentaries !) we are actually very lucky we can even find the isotopes of oxygen which shows the six degrees centigrade increase in global temperature.

And seeing as youngdan brought up Mars and climate change there earlier, I think any form of future climate change terraforming of the Martian atmosphere, is unlikely to take a few months!

Auditor #9 wrote:

That was back when the earth was spewing its guts out left right and centre though wasn't it ? There was a lot more activity on back then anyway - do you know how much CO2 was coughed out simultaneously by the 700 active supervolcanos that were on the go at once by any chance ?

I'd say this might have happened over a very short period too - maybe two or three months or even less. Here we're talking about in this century at least a century if not two for the earth to adjust to a lot smaller quantity of CO2.

Pax wrote:

Well I think it's much longer that a few months. It was expected to be millions of years but it's now believed to have occurred over more like thousands of years with respect to the basalt eruptions and resultant carbon dioxide and methane emissions. The graph is useful above too.

Now this is the image you posted earlier - a graph of time at the bottom against "% extinction intensity" on the left. Is this value the number of bodies of organisms that were found in fossils do you know ? Just after the 250 million years ago point there is a massive spike up towards 50% extinction. See it ? It is a very thin spike and we don't really know how long it is - it could be a million years it could be a thousand or a hundred from the graph. Is there any way of telling from the fossil records over what period of time these animals died ?

A volcano could be erupting for a thousand years for all I know but for what I do believe I know, I think I know that they erupt in one fell swoop like Krakatoa did. If you get 700 or so dinosaur-age superversions of Krakatoa all smoking at the same time then you can say good bye to the furry little animals over a very short space of time.

Auditor #9 wrote:

Pax wrote:

Well I think it's much longer that a few months. It was expected to be millions of years but it's now believed to have occurred over more like thousands of years with respect to the basalt eruptions and resultant carbon dioxide and methane emissions. The graph is useful above too.

Now this is the image you posted earlier - a graph of time at the bottom against "% extinction intensity" on the left. Is this value the number of bodies of organisms that were found in fossils do you know ? Just after the 250 million years ago point there is a massive spike up towards 50% extinction. See it ? It is a very thin spike and we don't really know how long it is - it could be a million years it could be a thousand or a hundred from the graph. Is there any way of telling from the fossil records over what period of time these animals died ?

A volcano could be erupting for a thousand years for all I know but for what I do believe I know, I think I know that they erupt in one fell swoop like Krakatoa did. If you get 700 or so dinosaur-age superversions of Krakatoa all smoking at the same time then you can say good bye to the furry little animals over a very short space of time.

Then again this is not a Krakatoa? It's a basalt eruption creating a new landmass, which happens over a period of time say, 200-300,000 years.

The dinosaur extinction event intensity is shown in that graph and is comparable to an end Permian extinction event. However the wider spike leading up to it, is perhaps indicative of slow basalt eruptions over thousands of years.

So you have a scarily similar situation to today but over a longer timespan, ending in a cataclysmic spike event. The fact that we can even find the isotopes of oxygen which shows the six degrees centigrade increase in global temperature means we can compare to a similar situation happening today.
However, you swap the volcanic and/or meteor forcing for todays human emissions then....

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flood_basalt

Quote :

...The final stages of the Permian saw two flood basalt events. A small one centered at Emeishan in China occurred at the same time as the end-Guadalupian extinction pulse, in an area which was close to the equator at the time.[81] The flood basalt eruptions which produced the Siberian Traps constituted one of the largest known volcanic events on Earth and covered over 200,000 square kilometers (77,220.4 sq mi) with lava. The Siberian Traps eruptions were formerly thought to have lasted for millions of years, but recent research dates them to 251.2 ± 0.3 Ma — immediately before the end of the Permian.[1][82]...

[...]

Quote :

...* Flood basalt volcanism has been implicated (along with the impact of large asteroids and/or comets, as well as disease and long-term climate changes) in major mass extinction events in the past.

* Basalt floods on the planet Venus are even larger than those on Earth (see: Volcanism on Venus). Their study may help understand the mechanisms responsible for these major geological events....

Anyway, I think the dailygalaxy quote above by Jonathan Payne, assistant professor of geological and environmental sciences at Stanford University, is instructive.

Quote :

...."This end-Permian extinction is beginning to look a whole lot like the world we live in right now,"
Payne said. "The good news, if there is good news, is that we have not
yet released as much carbon into the atmosphere as would be
hypothesized for the end-Permian extinction. Whether or not we get
there depends largely on future policy decisions and what happens over
the next couple of centuries."....

i.e. "The U/Pbage of the main pulse of the extinction is 252.6 ± 0.2million years, synchronous with the Siberian flood volcanism,and it occurred within the quoted uncertainty."

Now that it is being reported that Ireland has suffered through the coldest winter in 30 years surely the global warming people will call a halt to the scaremongering for at least till we see actual warmer tempertures.

Fot those like A-T who were waiting for the trend to change they will see that the trend did not change and they can keep waiting.

The truely brainwashed will ignore their eyes and come up with all sorts of computer models. These are the very people who accuse others of sticking their heads in the sand.

They predicted a harsh hurricane season and we got the calmest season in decades. Undaunted they predicted a mild winter and we got the coldest one in living memory.

Most just wish to ignore the Greens but now they want to give a billion euros to places like China for clouds. They really should be arrested and if people are talking about guillitining bankers they can chop a few greens as well

There was a TD (?) from the Northern Assembly on the Six One news complaining that the Power of One "switch off your standby x, y, z and save the planet" Campaign shouldn't be linked to the "propaganda" of Climate Change.

The Green Northern TD said the first fella was a "denier".

Auditor #9 wrote:

There was a TD (?) from the Northern Assembly on the Six One news complaining that the Power of One "switch off your standby x, y, z and save the planet" Campaign shouldn't be linked to the "propaganda" of Climate Change.

The Green Northern TD said the first fella was a "denier".

The first lad probably has a point. There's a lot of Creationism up north, so there's probably a lot of climate change "skepticism" too. Whatever works - it's the result that counts, not the message.

Coldest winter is 30 years and there is a lot of "skepticism". I would say there are a lot of people laughing their arses off at global warmers.

It does not matter how cold it gets to the brainwashed because they think they are melting. It is as if they are hypnotised. Someone should snap their fingers and they might wake up.

youngdan wrote:

Coldest winter is 30 years and there is a lot of "skepticism". I would say there are a lot of people laughing their arses off at global warmers.

It does not matter how cold it gets to the brainwashed because they think they are melting. It is as if they are hypnotised. Someone should snap their fingers and they might wake up.

Eh, no, dan - we've just had the coldest January since 2001, which is all of eight years ago. That's like saying your kid is the brightest in the bottom 5 of his class.

In your reality there appears that Winter consist's of just one month, how very odd. Did I not say Winter.

Go out and buy yourself the Irish Independent and read the article for yourself. If you refuse to believe what they say then that is your affair.

You are living proof that reality will be ignored by the brainwashed.

We are not interested in your child and you should not disparage his grades either

youngdan wrote:

Coldest winter is 30 years and there is a lot of "skepticism". I would say there are a lot of people laughing their arses off at global warmers.

It does not matter how cold it gets to the brainwashed because they think they are melting. It is as if they are hypnotised. Someone should snap their fingers and they might wake up.

Funnily enough we are have had the hottest January ever and over 130 have been killed since saturday in bushfires raging all over Victoria. The sky on Sat night had a glow that could be seen from central Melbourne. Our reservoirs are 31% full and I have't seen rain in so long I'm getting nostalgic for it. In my part of the globe its pretty feckin' warm I can tell you.

shutuplaura wrote:

youngdan wrote:

Coldest winter is 30 years and there is a lot of "skepticism". I would say there are a lot of people laughing their arses off at global warmers.

It does not matter how cold it gets to the brainwashed because they think they are melting. It is as if they are hypnotised. Someone should snap their fingers and they might wake up.

Funnily enough we are have had the hottest January ever and over 130 have been killed since saturday in bushfires raging all over Victoria. The sky on Sat night had a glow that could be seen from central Melbourne. Our reservoirs are 31% full and I have't seen rain in so long I'm getting nostalgic for it. In my part of the globe its pretty feckin' warm I can tell you.

youngdan has only just extended his appreciation of "global climate" from the weather where he lives to the weather where he used to live. Let's not rush him.

Does it get warm every Summer around Melbourne, don't visit the Sahara and report back that you don't see any glaciers.

Who can take you seriously, you only went to Australia a few months ago and you are nostalgic for rain.

Do you suffer the same reading defect that Ibis was shown up as a fool for. The Independent article is talking about a season called Winter and not as Ibis is talking about a month called January.

I've been living for Melbourne for a few years Dan and Its been months since the last decent downfall so I'll miss rain if I want thank you very much. Its also been the hottest summer ever, not just a hot summer.

And Dan you clearly know diddly squat about Melbounre. Its not a particularly hot city, not by Australian standards and probably not by North american standards either.

Wasn't refering to either the indo or winter either, just mentioning the simple fact that its been the hottest few days since records began around here and now its feared up to 300 have been killed (unfortunately it keeps rising) in the fires caused in large part by the hot weather. Hardly off topic on a thread about climate change is it.

shutuplaura wrote:

I've been living for Melbourne for a few years Dan and Its been months since the last decent downfall so I'll miss rain if I want thank you very much. Its also been the hottest summer ever, not just a hot summer.

And Dan you clearly know diddly squat about Melbounre. Its not a particularly hot city, not by Australian standards and probably not by North american standards either.

Wasn't refering to either the indo or winter either, just mentioning the simple fact that its been the hottest few days since records began around here and now its feared up to 300 have been killed (unfortunately it keeps rising) in the fires caused in large part by the hot weather. Hardly off topic on a thread about climate change is it.

Very sorry about the terrible fires. Was reading articles reprinted by the Guardian from a local newspaper. People must be feeling devastated.

youngdan wrote:

Does it get warm every Summer around Melbourne, don't visit the Sahara and report back that you don't see any glaciers.

Youngdan, behave yourself - no need for sarcasm when the poster clearly says it's the hottest summer on record. People are dying, it's accepted that the weather is off the scale. Do the research before you jump in with both feet.

Quote :

Who can take you seriously, you only went to Australia a few months ago and you are nostalgic for rain.

Tempted to delete this from an adhominem perspective. Quite apart from the fact that you got plenty of sympathy when your balls were freezing in Boston and now you've no compassion for people who are living in a country that is literally burning up.

Quote :

Do you suffer the same reading defect that Ibis was shown up as a fool for. The Independent article is talking about a season called Winter and not as Ibis is talking about a month called January.

Sigh. You can do better than this. I know you can take a point and actually make a point, explain it and give some evidence to back up the substantive issue rather than nitpicking.

Kate P wrote:

youngdan wrote:

Does it get warm every Summer around Melbourne, don't visit the Sahara and report back that you don't see any glaciers.

Youngdan, behave yourself - no need for sarcasm when the poster clearly says it's the hottest summer on record. People are dying, it's accepted that the weather is off the scale. Do the research before you jump in with both feet.

Quote :

Who can take you seriously, you only went to Australia a few months ago and you are nostalgic for rain.

Tempted to delete this from an adhominem perspective. Quite apart from the fact that you got plenty of sympathy when your balls were freezing in Boston and now you've no compassion for people who are living in a country that is literally burning up.

Quote :

Do you suffer the same reading defect that Ibis was shown up as a fool for. The Independent article is talking about a season called Winter and not as Ibis is talking about a month called January.

Sigh. You can do better than this. I know you can take a point and actually make a point, explain it and give some evidence to back up the substantive issue rather than nitpicking.

Unfortunately, youngdan doesn't know anything about the science involved, so it is more or less impossible for him to make substantive points. He's simply convinced it must be wrong, but the best we'll get is the assertion that the scientists are making it up. To be fair, that's completely in line with other climate change 'skeptics'.

If you were making an observation about the Summer in Melbourne that is fine. But when you quote me it normally indicates that you are answering or refering to my remarks. Now clearly I am talking about the Independent article and you say that you wern't refering to the article or winter.

So don't quote and then rant on about nothing pertaining to the quotation or you will be put in the same bracket as the others.

Ibis is a broken record at this stage with his doom, gloom and fearmongering and reality does not impinge on him at all.

Papal who has wised up and quit for the moment does not read any posts but just prattles on.

You are right about one thing though, I know little of Melbourne. It is a location. I follow the climate in North America and Europe.

As regards fires. Stay back or you will be burned. Smokie the Bear told me that

youngdan wrote:

If you were making an observation about the Summer in Melbourne that is fine. But when you quote me it normally indicates that you are answering or refering to my remarks. Now clearly I am talking about the Independent article and you say that you wern't refering to the article or winter.

So don't quote and then rant on about nothing pertaining to the quotation or you will be put in the same bracket as the others.

Ibis is a broken record at this stage with his doom, gloom and fearmongering and reality does not impinge on him at all.

Papal who has wised up and quit for the moment does not read any posts but just prattles on.

You are right about one thing though, I know little of Melbourne. It is a location. I follow the climate in North America and Europe.

As regards fires. Stay back or you will be burned. Smokie the Bear told me that

Smokie would not have helped you down in Australia then. These fires were travelling faster that a motor bike in some places and no one was going towards them. Whole villages and towns have been burnt to the ground and the cars of people trying to get away burnt up before they had time to get out of them.

Nature is very powerful and sometimes all the good advice in the world can't help.