This thread was split from the oil price watching thread and was largely a little exercise for me with the new powers I have to split and merge threads. The original thread veered quickly, as Helium Three says below, from an innocent comment on the price of gold to a discussion on Resource Wars

So I split it off in order to try to get a discussion going on the possibility of more wide-scale Resource Wars occurring in the near future involving not just the United States and Iran but possibly Russia and China as well.

Apologies to H3 for disturbing their Sunday like that. - Auditor
edited 16:24


Was it not youngdan in the land of p.ie a couple of weeks back who told us all that gold was heading north of $1000/oz? Duly shown to be correct - fair play. Did he have Denman though?

[Slightly alarmed Edit: This post was made yesterday simply as a modest comment on the Oil etc thread, complimenting youngdan on his foresight about the price of gold. Logging on now, my tranquil Sunday has been shaken (though not stirred) by seeing it promoted to lead post on a new thread someone in a postion of great cyberpower (yes that is you Auditor...) has given a dramatic Resource Wars title to. Just so you know it was not me!]

Helium Three wrote:

Was it not youngdan in the land of p.ie a couple of weeks back who told us all that gold was heading north of $1000/oz? Duly shown to be correct - fair play. Did he have Denman though?

Youngdan also said silver would go to $100 in a year. If it continues at this rate then he could almost be right about that too. If it even gets to $60 an ounce by the end of the year will be a big jump. Some people on those threads in p.ie believed silver was the one to watch because there's less of it coming out of the ground. It's rarer than gold (and prettier)

I googled Denman and gold but only got auto & Denman set for Gold Cup General Sports Chat. ... Who's Denman?

I miss youngdan ...

Thank you very much Auditor. This being your endevour I will support your efforts as best I can. As mentioned already a lot has happened in the last 10 days. I sold my google puts at a modest profit. It was a disappointing result as my profits would have really multipled from where is was if google had continued lower. The problem was I was running out of time as theyexpire next Friday. At the stage they were they were doubling and halving. I did not want to end with nothing with a stock that went from 749 to 435. Undeterred I used the money to buy call options on Hecla mining at 15 for June and for Newmont for January at a high strike price. I still have my apple and nordstrom puts for April. The day the Dow went up 440 points was a killer. I am optimistic on the metals and have already plenty of calls going forward. When I see what happened to Bear Sterns Iwish I had taken my own advice and shorted it at 104 dollars. The way silver is acting is very positive. It and oil should be dropping in the expectation of a bad recession at least and the fact they are not can only mean that supplies are tight. The Fed is expected to drop .75 next Wednesday so we shall see what effect that will have. Carlye group have to sell 17 billion in assets also. The thing to watch will be if these defaults lead to defaults by the counterparties who were counting on being paid. To reiterate I do expect silver to go to 100 and gold to 3000. The ISEQ will drop 90% in my opinion. My reason for this negative view is that Ireland has no way to influence either monetary or fiscal policy. The much ballyhoed 6 billion Euro bond issue of some time ago is no longer feasable in this climate. So if we can get the rest of the stock guys here to join those already here the conversation will be back in full swing

At the moment it appears that demand for oil is still very strong. Is this because we are still in an overhang before recession makes its impact?

I think that supply is falling. The big Ghawar in Saudi and the big Mexican field is in decline. Once a field declines the graph is pretty steep. The proponents of peak oil seem to have the upper hand at the moment. Some say that there is great supplies in Alaska and that Brazilian find are pretty big but in the shorter term oil production seems to be maxed out. I have commented on the fact that the gold price and the oil price move pretty much in sync. So the price in dollars will rise so that the Arabs will still be able to get amount of gold as before. The ECB gold sales and the Arab propping up of the western financial system may be linked. The demand for oil is increasing with the big jump in vehicles in China and India. This car for 2500 dollars will guarantee that demand will continue to rise. Also the resignation of Admiral Fallon put about 5 dollars on the price this week. There was not going to be an Iran attack while he was commander and now Bush has fired him.

youngdan wrote:

Thank you very much Auditor. This being your endevour I will support your efforts as best I can. As mentioned already a lot has happened in the last 10 days. I sold my google puts at a modest profit. It was a disappointing result as my profits would have really multipled from where is was if google had continued lower. The problem was I was running out of time as theyexpire next Friday. At the stage they were they were doubling and halving. I did not want to end with nothing with a stock that went from 749 to 435. Undeterred I used the money to buy call options on Hecla mining at 15 for June and for Newmont for January at a high strike price. I still have my apple and nordstrom puts for April. The day the Dow went up 440 points was a killer. I am optimistic on the metals and have already plenty of calls going forward. When I see what happened to Bear Sterns Iwish I had taken my own advice and shorted it at 104 dollars. The way silver is acting is very positive. It and oil should be dropping in the expectation of a bad recession at least and the fact they are not can only mean that supplies are tight. The Fed is expected to drop .75 next Wednesday so we shall see what effect that will have. Carlye group have to sell 17 billion in assets also. The thing to watch will be if these defaults lead to defaults by the counterparties who were counting on being paid. To reiterate I do expect silver to go to 100 and gold to 3000. The ISEQ will drop 90% in my opinion. My reason for this negative view is that Ireland has no way to influence either monetary or fiscal policy. The much ballyhoed 6 billion Euro bond issue of some time ago is no longer feasable in this climate. So if we can get the rest of the stock guys here to join those already here the conversation will be back in full swing

Weyhey !! youngdan you are a celebrity among boards people, see sixth or seventh post here
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055249732

However long you stay may you enjoy it however you came here is not as important as that you are here. All we need as you say is Anorakphobia and freedomlover and a couple others and the ISEQ thread is back in action.

Weyhey

A lot of people in the US must be going through the mill already, between housing foreclosure, the end of cheap oil, food price increases and cuts in welfare. No wonder there is enthusiasm for "change". Do you think that Bush intends to move on Iran before the election? And would it be that easy? Also this crazy Colombian laptop supposedly linking Venezuela with Iran makes me wonder if he is not eyeing up Venezuela even more than Iran. Even with a mult-war strategy there are only so many wars the US can run at any one time. Perhaps this should be in another thread, but where is the US going?

youngdan wrote:

I think that supply is falling. The big Ghawar in Saudi and the big Mexican field is in decline. Once a field declines the graph is pretty steep. The proponents of peak oil seem to have the upper hand at the moment. Some say that there is great supplies in Alaska and that Brazilian find are pretty big but in the shorter term oil production seems to be maxed out. I have commented on the fact that the gold price and the oil price move pretty much in sync. So the price in dollars will rise so that the Arabs will still be able to get amount of gold as before. The ECB gold sales and the Arab propping up of the western financial system may be linked. The demand for oil is increasing with the big jump in vehicles in China and India. This car for 2500 dollars will guarantee that demand will continue to rise. Also the resignation of Admiral Fallon put about 5 dollars on the price this week. There was not going to be an Iran attack while he was commander and now Bush has fired him.

Also the resignation of Admiral Fallon put about 5 dollars on the price this week. There was not going to be an Iran attack while he was commander and now Bush has fired him.

That could really put the cat among the pigeons!

Great to see you Cactus. Generals Zinni and Abizaid were both replaced when they disagreed with the chickenhawks and now Fallon is gone. Hillary and McCain will attack Iran so if Hillary is looking strong the attack can wait. I think that Obama is not a complete puppet like the other two. It is my theory that it was not conceived possible that Barack could have gotten to where he is when he was groomed to be token opposition like the other past losers, Edwards, Biden and Kucinich and given the keynote speach in 2004. Obama seems a true globalist socialist with a favouritism to the Arab cause. If things are on the level which I doubt then Israel would be very foolish not to make their move now. It is said that the Israeli raid into Syria some time ago was to force the Syrians to activate the new Russian air defense system so the Israelis and US will be able to figure out how to counteract it. Some US ships have moved into the Mediterranian coast off Lebanon and Syria. They will be able to give Syria a good pounding if necessary. The South American thing that was being hyped was deflated when they all shoke hands. The priority now is to create an excuse for the economic collapse which seems to be here at last.

You sound relieved. We're looking at WWIII then if Iran is attacked?

The US strategy appears to be a multi-war empire building with sock puppet governments, collecting oil rich territories and disrupting economic rivals. They are looking at China, Africa (US troops now being taught French and Portuguese) Russia and the EU in a hostile and predatory way. Kosovo appears to me to be part of the game plan in relation to weakening the EU. They probably would love a No vote in Ireland, for very different reasons to Kate P's.

I sincerely hope not WWIII, but I am struggling to see how to get a good outcome. It is hard to see whether the US is driven by nationalist interests or by a small economic interest group within the US. The human species is facing too many difficulties to need war ( although of course the Pentagon would see war as inevitable and desirable in dealing with these difficulties). Perhaps we need to move beyond nationalism in some way and stand up for each other.

A start would be to stop renditions through Ireland.

I am not relieved, I am alarmed and see another big mistake coming. I don't believe a word I am being told. A collapse is here and the blame must be diverted. On CNBC Europe last Wednesday Jimmy Rogers laid the blame where it belongs and called for The Fed to be abolished. I believe the US is following the footsteps of the EU and consider it vital that Ireland withdraws. It is likely that the country has been pussified enough that they won't have the balls to do that. Russia is now standing tall and are blocking a move to world government. I think they have played the western globalist elites for suckers as laid out in the book New Lies for Old written by a kgb colonel who defected to the west in 1983. In it he predicted the wall coming down and glastnot and perestroika which were considered fruitcake predictions at the time. Everthing he predicted is happening and he said the deception of the west to reduce their nuke forces was the gameplan. The west is run by weak politicians at a time when strong leaders are needed. I now have to watch Chief Yellow Jacket give Bush a bowl of grass that cost the Irish taxpayers 100000 quid.

I would be interested to read New Lies for Old. I would assume that it was coloured by the interesting events of 1983 when the US undertook a full scale pre-emptive nuclear strike excercise against Russia that is still believed by some to have been planned as both a probe and a cover for an intended US first strike. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Able_Archer_83
Hiding of weapons with various smoke screens is of course widely practised and has been throughout history. Bush is pretty good at it himself.

Im sure you have read http://www.newamericancentury.org/RebuildingAmericasDefenses.pdf that sets out the US stall for "world government" by the US achieved by a multi war strategy.

I have been looking at some US fora and the degree of anger against Bush and his associates both on Iraq and the economy is phenomenal. Getting Halliburton to build concentration camps for US citizens seems like the rational response don't you think ? These people who have lost their homes, or who don't want to fight in wars, can be such a nuisance.

The guy who wrote it was Anatoliy Golitsyn. I know about him by listening to radio shows which deals with him every now and then and he is referenced by other people. I have on tape an interview Col Stanislav Lunev gave to Barry Faber where he tells the same story. He defected in 1992. Last September I believe the West's eyes were opened. A high level group consisting of Kissinger, Shultz and others went to Moscow to give Putin his marching orders with regard an upcoming attack on Iran. These people are members of the CFR who are a higher power than Bush. They have funded the Soviets through loans and wheat deals from the time they sprung Trotsky from the Canadian jail. This meeting was only reported in The Guardian newspaper. It appears that Putin told them to screw. At the time there were 3 carriers ready but the attack was scuttled. There seems to be 3 races now to see which will happen first. 1 an economic collapse that leads to a backlash against the neocons. 2 enough high level people like Paul Craig Roberts calling Bush a traitor to reach critical mass. 3 a war that will sidetrack peoples attention. Finally we have Spitzer. He is being called Client9. How come we don't hear anything about Client 1 through 8 and 10 through 200. He was asking questions of Silverstein. It reminds me of the DC Madam case last Summer. She had 53000 numbers in her book from years of business but the only person named was Senator David Vittar. The fact that he lead the anti immigration struggle against Bush and McCain was just a coincedence. Getting back to the Russians, in the 80's the Pershing missiles going into Europe would have given the US the ability to pull off a 1st strike. The Russians completely outwitted the US when they got the Pershings to be destroyed.

Yahoo news from just under a week ago
Admiral Fallon resigns


WASHINGTON - The Navy admiral in charge of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan announced Tuesday that he is resigning over press reports portraying him as opposed to President Bush's Iran policy.
Adm. William J. Fallon, one of the most experienced officers in the U.S. military,
said the reports were wrong but had become a distraction hampering his
efforts in the Middle East. Fallon's area of responsibility includes
Iran and stretches from Central Asia across the Middle East to the Horn
of Africa.

http://www.breakingnews.ie/World/mhidcwojsnql/

A change in government in the Czech Republic - sweeping victory by the Social Democrats - may mean that the plan for US bases there will end.