Its payback time - Lisbon pays for Nice

It's not my community but nevertheless, it's a positive and proactive step on behalf of the natives there.

On the other hand, there was an article in the Times last week (I think) about Brazilian workers in Gort who had been a big part of the local community and now were returning home en masse because there just wasn't work for them.

I wonder how many 'immigrants' have actually put down roots here - I imagine fewer Poles, Latvians and Lithuanians than Nigerians and Romanians. I say that because of the representation of their kids in local schools. Many Eastern Europeans have made very little effort to really integrate into their adopted communities and don't have good English. Many of them (at least in my part of the world) are single. They will find it impossible to transfer whatever skills they have into other areas and will most likely cut their losses and go home.

I expect other posters know more about this than I do - I'd be interested to hear what they have to say.

Just wondering, Edo what the proportion of Yes to No (or don't know) is on the doorsteps as you are meeting people?

And what are the Yes people in favour of? Have they read the treaty or the documentation?

And those who are saying no to the treaty - what are they saying no to?

Right now, with less than 35% of the electorate likely to vote, Lisbon is going to go down. Sean and Mary Citizen of the 'burbs won't bother voting, so the backbone of FF's vote last time in the constituencies around Dublin out isn't going to turn out for them, or indeed for us.

I'm instinctively pro EU, mainly because I spent a lot of time in London and got a pain in my face from opponents of the social chapter and Little Englanders who hated any outsider. However, echoing Edo's comments the No campaign can be as disorganised and scattershot as it likes, all it has to do is play on fear. There is no onus on the No campaign to be intelligent at all, and that's frightening.

Kate P wrote:

Just wondering, Edo what the proportion of Yes to No (or don't know) is on the doorsteps as you are meeting people?

And what are the Yes people in favour of? Have they read the treaty or the documentation?

And those who are saying no to the treaty - what are they saying no to?

Its running about 50% against, 30% for and 20% undecided AFAICS

% of people who have actually read the treaty itself - 2%

The Yes supporters would divide between Party Loyalists, Ferverent Pro-Europeans who feel the treaty is a sop to the nationalists and doesnt go far enough - but its the best deal going at the moment, and those who postively detest Sinn Fein, Patricia McKenna and the fringe left.

The the vast majority of the Nos, at least 80% IMO, just want to give the gov a good kicking and this is an ideal opportunity - most could not give a monkeys about the farmers, QMV, the commissionership, neutrality or anything to do with the treaty,real or imagined by either side , with the pointed exception of immigration and the state of the domestic scene - The lisbon treaty is not seen as important and the world will not fall into shite if we dont pass it.

Surprisingly - given the very high visibility and money spent in the area - The Libertas campaign has been a total disaster with the exception giving Lucinda an even higher profile than she has now - only time Libertas are vaguely mentioned is in relation to the lucy poster and the agreement is that it was in poor taste!

its a total mixed bag and may change as we get closer to the date and FF.FG and Lab campaign kick into overdrive from May 17th onwards - that a calcualed gamble and it may work - 3 weeks is the max most people will tolerate a political campaign and we have only been doing some very gentle canvassing so far.

Thanks for that, Edo.

That is very uplifting reading even though I see some would wish to ignore the will of the people.

jmcc wrote:

Brandubh wrote:

I have been saying pretty well all of this for years mate on another Site and was called every name under the sun for doing so.

Yes but you were upsetting some of the delicate people there.

Quote :

Fact is senior politicians told bare faced lies about the consequences of voting Yes in Nice II - we were told only a few thousand would reach our shores etc etc etc and yet they came by the hundreds of thousands...

Agreed.

Quote :

Now its payback time...

Well
as long as everyone plays nicely and nobody gets hurt. However
there should be penalties imposed on the politicians who lied.

Regards...jmcc

I lived in East London during one of those phases when the Bengali community came under siege from skinhead/BNP types. Little children couldn't walk home five minutes from school safely. It was pulled up hard when the Bengali youths shaped up and ran them out.

I don't think the Poles would be a push over for bullies. Ironically, there are a fair number of Poles who are anti-semitic and racist too.
Racism is never anything other than a dirty business of scapegoating and it always ends in violence and innocent people getting hurt. Not a lot of point Bertie and Paisley burying the N/S hatchet if we are going to start laying into each other on an E/W basis.

I was in Millstreet last week which with all respect to Millstreet is the back end of the universe, and it was full of bright, sharp young people from all over Europe.
If anyone has watched "Where Has My Job Gone" and listened to Edo and others about the amount of investment in Eastern Europe, it does seem very likely that a lot of recent migrants will turn around and go back home to where the jobs are. There are some I know who I would be very sorry to see go.

This whole discussion of immigration has reminded me of something. When are the Eastern Europeans going to be allowed into France and Germany? As I understand it, most countries placed some sort of quota system on immigration from the East, to protect their own workers. Ireland, Britain and maybe someone else didn'yt bother. But that quota was set to run out after a few years. Has it happened, or will it?

905 wrote:

This whole discussion of immigration has reminded me of something. When are the Eastern Europeans going to be allowed into France and Germany? As I understand it, most countries placed some sort of quota system on immigration from the East, to protect their own workers. Ireland, Britain and maybe someone else didn'yt bother. But that quota was set to run out after a few years. Has it happened, or will it?

Comprehensive answer here.

youngdan wrote:

That is very uplifting reading even though I see some would wish to ignore the will of the people.

Maybe we should have a referendum on the next Finance Act, too?

The Finance Act is no more or less constitutional than the Treaty, more people know whats in it and it has a much greater impact on our daily lives than the Treaty, so why not?

In fact, in the past, provisions of Finance Acts have been found to be unconstitutional, but no such finding has ever been made about an EU Treaty.

Kate P wrote:

I wonder how many 'immigrants' have actually put down roots here - I imagine fewer Poles, Latvians and Lithuanians than Nigerians and Romanians. I say that because of the representation of their kids in local schools. Many Eastern Europeans have made very little effort to really integrate into their adopted communities and don't have good English. Many of them (at least in my part of the world) are single. They will find it impossible to transfer whatever skills they have into other areas and will most likely cut their losses and go home.

I expect other posters know more about this than I do - I'd be interested to hear what they have to say.

In my experience, those coming here from Eastern Europe tend to be younger, and haven't started families yet. Of my former colleagues (restaurant with staff of 50-60, 90% from Eastern Europe), three have married in the past year, and only one has had a child in the five years since I started working with that motley crew. Some of them will end up going home, but many will stay here to settle down.

On the comment that there are fewer children of Eastern Europeans in schools, I'd say that it's because they haven't got around to having children yet. Much of the African immigration was based around family units, whereas much of the European immigration has been individuals.

ibis wrote:

905 wrote:

This whole discussion of immigration has reminded me of something. When are the Eastern Europeans going to be allowed into France and Germany? As I understand it, most countries placed some sort of quota system on immigration from the East, to protect their own workers. Ireland, Britain and maybe someone else didn'yt bother. But that quota was set to run out after a few years. Has it happened, or will it?

Comprehensive answer here.

Cheers Ibis.

I am looking forward to it being voted down to see how the politicians will try to proceed anyway. I see some MEP called Neachtain is predicting economic destitution. There is no economic destitution for him. The Brits were afraid even to give the people a referendum.

youngdan wrote:

I am looking forward to it being voted down to see how the politicians will try to proceed anyway. I see some MEP called Neachtain is predicting economic destitution. There is no economic destitution for him. The Brits were afraid even to give the people a referendum.

Quote :

Court challenge to EU referendum
Millionaire Stuart Wheeler has won his battle to force a High Court review into whether the government should hold a referendum on the EU's Lisbon treaty.

Prime Minister Gordon Brown has ruled out a public vote on the treaty, saying it does not alter the UK constitution. - BBC

Do all the 27 countries have to ratify the treaty or what's the story? Is there a list of ratified countries, pending, n/a etc.?

I await the answer to this inconvenient question

youngdan wrote:

I await the answer to this inconvenient question

whats the question?

How many countries have had the opportunity to have a simple yes/no referendum on what would seem to be a very important decision.

youngdan wrote:

How many countries have had the opportunity to have a simple yes/no referendum on what would seem to be a very important decision.

Hmm. Only Ireland is having a referendum. Those countries that normally ratify through their parliaments are ratifying through their parliaments. In the case of, say, Denmark, their AG-equivalent reckoned that it didn't impact Danish sovereignty, so a referendum wasn't required. The Labour government rowed back on a promised referendum.

I know this causes widespread outrage amongst those who see referendums as their best chance to scupper the Treaty, but there really isn't enough in it to warrant one in most countries.

I would imagine that in the back of voters minds is the realisation that the Irish politicians would not give them a say if they could get away with it just like the rest of the 26 countries. We will see how it plays out

youngdan wrote:

I would imagine that in the back of voters minds is the realisation that the Irish politicians would not give them a say if they could get away with it just like the rest of the 26 countries. We will see how it plays out

Which part of the Treaty requires an amendment to our Constitution?

Why has the AG's advice on the matter not been published?

seinfeld wrote:

youngdan wrote:

I would imagine that in the back of voters minds is the realisation that the Irish politicians would not give them a say if they could get away with it just like the rest of the 26 countries. We will see how it plays out

Which part of the Treaty requires an amendment to our Constitution?

Why has the AG's advice on the matter not been published?

I don't think the AG's opinion is usually published.

ibis wrote:

seinfeld wrote:

youngdan wrote:

I would imagine that in the back of voters minds is the realisation that the Irish politicians would not give them a say if they could get away with it just like the rest of the 26 countries. We will see how it plays out

Which part of the Treaty requires an amendment to our Constitution?

Why has the AG's advice on the matter not been published?

I don't think the AG's opinion is usually published.

Surely, it is made available to the Cabinet?

seinfeld wrote:

ibis wrote:

seinfeld wrote:

youngdan wrote:

I would imagine that in the back of voters minds is the realisation that the Irish politicians would not give them a say if they could get away with it just like the rest of the 26 countries. We will see how it plays out

Which part of the Treaty requires an amendment to our Constitution?

Why has the AG's advice on the matter not been published?

I don't think the AG's opinion is usually published.

Surely, it is made available to the Cabinet?

I presume so - but Cabinet minutes are only made available 30 years later, I think.

ibis wrote:

seinfeld wrote:

ibis wrote:

seinfeld wrote:

youngdan wrote:

I would imagine that in the back of voters minds is the realisation that the Irish politicians would not give them a say if they could get away with it just like the rest of the 26 countries. We will see how it plays out

Which part of the Treaty requires an amendment to our Constitution?

Why has the AG's advice on the matter not been published?

I don't think the AG's opinion is usually published.

Surely, it is made available to the Cabinet?

I presume so - but Cabinet minutes are only made available 30 years later, I think.

I didn't necessarily mean to a Cabinet meeting; I meant to the members. Is the Minister for Foreign Affairs precluded from letting the public know why we need an amendment? I can't imagine why.

If we weren't having a referendum, and someone sought to injunct the ratification a la Crotty, the AGs opinions would have to be given in open court.

Kate P wrote:

It's not my community but nevertheless, it's a positive and proactive step on behalf of the natives there.

On the other hand, there was an article in the Times last week (I think) about Brazilian workers in Gort who had been a big part of the local community and now were returning home en masse because there just wasn't work for them.

I wonder how many 'immigrants' have actually put down roots here - I imagine fewer Poles, Latvians and Lithuanians than Nigerians and Romanians. I say that because of the representation of their kids in local schools. Many Eastern Europeans have made very little effort to really integrate into their adopted communities and don't have good English. Many of them (at least in my part of the world) are single. They will find it impossible to transfer whatever skills they have into other areas and will most likely cut their losses and go home.

I expect other posters know more about this than I do - I'd be interested to hear what they have to say.

In our office there is someone from Croatia married to an irishperson, a Polish person married to another Polish person: they have just had a baby whom they have called Patrick. Their older child is at school here. There is a South African married to an Irish person: they also have a child at school here. There is a person from the Czech Republic who is divorced from an English person. She has Irish cats, no children. There is a Lithuanian woman whose daughter is living with an Irishman. Her boyfriend is from Cork. There is a Welshwoman married to a Welshman - one of their children is in school in Ireland and another in Wales. There are two Irish people, married to each other. You couldn't invent it, and I didn't.