Just in after another depressing evening on the canvass trail - This treaty campaign is going down in flames and its nothing to do with the Lisbon Treaty.

There is so much anger out there and bit by bit its all falling into place for me.

The comments in general what Im getting are as follows:

1) we are losing our identity and if we vote for this treaty we will lose it forever
2) economic uncertainty - will there be enough jobs for us all and particularly my children
3) Social services and facilities at stresspoint - too many people looking for too few services
4) we need to slow down and start caring care of our own and giving priority to our own

This in the leafy streets of Dublin 6

Nothing really to do about the treaty - everybody has got their blurb from the Referendum Commission and various missilletes from the various concerned party and to be honest at this stage - less than 10% of people I have talked to have even read any of the stuff except the total devotees - however there is big protest vote coming the direction of the Gov ,if not the mainstream in general - the people - even those who really have no excuse to give out - are angry and one aspect is coming out loud and clear even though it is being expressed very subtly because to mention the issue head on is not very PC at the moment which is why Im bringing it up here in the hopes of a sane conversation rather than over at the other place which is simply not conducive to that at the moment.

My thoughts were crystalized today on seeing an internal party poll on the main issues out there regarding Lisbon

The main issue to emerge by the proverbial country mile is immigration - the number one issue and it isnt that we haven't had enough immigration.

Everything is coming back to the massive influx into this country since 2004 - If you produced a matrix on all the specific issues raised and cross referenced them with a main large issue - immigration comes across loud and clear - People do not want to say it directly to you on the doorstep- but 10 times more will do so than even last year in the GE hustings.

With darker economic clouds on the horizon which is starting to result in less employment , more strain on social services with less expenditure going that direction - particularly areas where our new citizens are most visible, education and health - the total farce of the census which seriously underestimated the number of immigrants into Ireland to a laughable degree. I can get up in the morning , go to work, go out in the evening and to bed that night and not make contact with another Irish person - doesn't bother me in the slightest - been an emigrant for a long time and came back here as immigration here started to take off and If Im honest about it - dont have a nationalist bone in my body - I dont bat an eyelid at it - but given the reception I've been getting on the doorsteps I have started to step back and try and see the situation thru the eyes of my fellow citizens and Im suddenly more aware of what a topic of conversation it actually is and how negative it is getting even among those who would have been blase about it a few years ago.

There is a big feeling out there that we were jibbed over Nice ,in particular over the number of immigrants we were told we could expect - there is no trust in the Government to tell anything close to the truth.

Thus the merits or disadvantges of the Lisbon Treaty can go hang - this is about payback over Nice and particular over immigration - there is a palable anger out there and there is high level of insecurity - much imagained IMO - but when the middleclass start squealing as our immigrants start to climb the value chain as naturally happens in employment and the character of many areas change - we in for interesting times and as the morphine of economic good times and easy credit starts to fade - there is a massive protest vote coming - I will continue the good fight until the last possible moment - but the tide is flowing strongly against this treaty for reasons , with the honourable exceptions of folks here and a minority elsewhere who have strong ideological and theorectical reasons, that have everything to do with fear and anger and a massive desire to give the government a good kicking.

I admit some of the above maybe a bit contraversial and I welcome any comments on this - but I feel its a reality that is out there and has to be acknowledged

So immigration is the primary reason why many people have turned against the Treaty? Interesting. What sort of people are raising it with you. People in building bearing the brunt of the re-trenchment of that industry?

And how are they raising it, Edo?

I tend to agree. At no point has the majority of the debate actually been about the merits or demerits of the Treaty, and you could feel the undercurrents beginning to pull more and more strongly in the last couple of weeks. There's also very little feeling of engagement from FF (who are, I suppose, busy with internal matters).

I'd say the chances of it going down are pretty good, and for the reasons you give, stupid as that is.

I was browsing RTE, and came across this chilling little quote from their 'expert' interview:

RTÉ.ie: If Ireland rejects the treaty, what next for the EU?

Antonio Missiroli: I suppose that, not unlike 2001 (Nice Treaty), there will be strong pressure from all the other Member States to prepare the ground for a new referendum at a later stage. In other words, there could be a delay in the ratification process, in the hope that Ireland joins the others sooner rather than later. Nobody wants even to consider the possibility of either not proceeding with the new Treaty - after more than 6 years of negotiations (since the Laeken Declaration), or moving forward without Ireland. But that will also depend on Ireland itself.

I have to say this: it's a total disgrace that this or any other treaty isn't taught to people around the country in an obligatory way along with our own constitution on a regular basis to adults and older children alike. Bit by bit article by article for weeks months and years it should be taught and debated in public by us and Europeans here and people should be obliged to go and drink tea and read articles first in preparation like our book club.

It's a big project and it's getting bigger and no one is getting any wiser. People are voting NO out of cautionary ignorance and that's only a pure natural response to the massive unknown that is seen as the EU.

ibis wrote:

RTÉ.ie: If Ireland rejects the treaty, what next for the EU?

Antonio Missiroli: I suppose that, not unlike 2001 (Nice Treaty), there will be strong pressure from all the other Member States to prepare the ground for a new referendum at a later stage. In other words, there could be a delay in the ratification process, in the hope that Ireland joins the others sooner rather than later. Nobody wants even to consider the possibility of either not proceeding with the new Treaty - after more than 6 years of negotiations (since the Laeken Declaration), or moving forward without Ireland. But that will also depend on Ireland itself.

It's stuff like that which makes it so difficult to feel anything but antipathy towards this treaty. Why are we even bothering with this charade of democratic process if these Eurocrats are just going to go ahead with their institutional masterpiece, whatever we say?

Ard-Taoiseach wrote:

So immigration is the primary reason why many people have turned against the Treaty? Interesting. What sort of people are raising it with you. People in building bearing the brunt of the re-trenchment of that industry?

No Ard - there are very few people in D6 in the building industry - unless at the very top - actually as a total proportion immigrants, particuarly from Eastern Europe and Asia, made up a very small percentage of the building industry at its high - they filled all the vacancies in manufacturing and services as the paddies flocked to building industry and the public services -men to building and women to the public services - now that the job boom is over in both - those in the public service are ok - for now - but the attrition rate in construction has been crippling and its no surprise that men ,primarily from that industry make up 81% of the new signings on the live register - there are few vacancies to go back to in industry and services.

Now its middle class and middle class wannabes who are bringing it up the most - our immigrant community are , just like we did , but even faster because so many are extremely well educated and have good social skills , are climbing the value chain and as I always felt - when the middle class start squealing then the party is coming to an end regarding how smoothly immigration has been going here.

Ard-Taoiseach wrote:

ibis wrote:

RTÉ.ie: If Ireland rejects the treaty, what next for the EU?

Antonio Missiroli: I suppose that, not unlike 2001 (Nice Treaty), there will be strong pressure from all the other Member States to prepare the ground for a new referendum at a later stage. In other words, there could be a delay in the ratification process, in the hope that Ireland joins the others sooner rather than later. Nobody wants even to consider the possibility of either not proceeding with the new Treaty - after more than 6 years of negotiations (since the Laeken Declaration), or moving forward without Ireland. But that will also depend on Ireland itself.

It's stuff like that which makes it so difficult to feel anything but antipathy towards this treaty. Why are we even bothering with this charade of democratic process if these Eurocrats are just going to go ahead with their institutional masterpiece, whatever we say?

They don't, if you look at what he says. It's either not moving forward, or moving forward without Ireland. Both of those take account of an Irish No.

Edo wrote:

Now its middle class and middle class wannabes who are bringing it up the most - our immigrant community are , just like we did , but even faster because so many are extremely well educated and have good social skills , are climbing the value chain and as I always felt - when the middle class start squealing then the party is coming to an end regarding how smoothly immigration has been going here.

Right, thanks for the clarification, Edo. We, however, we can draw succour from the OECD report forecasting a decline in unemployment next year. That can smooth out any incipient problems.

Ard-Taoiseach wrote:

ibis wrote:

RTÉ.ie: If Ireland rejects the treaty, what next for the EU?

Antonio Missiroli: I suppose that, not unlike 2001 (Nice Treaty), there will be strong pressure from all the other Member States to prepare the ground for a new referendum at a later stage. In other words, there could be a delay in the ratification process, in the hope that Ireland joins the others sooner rather than later. Nobody wants even to consider the possibility of either not proceeding with the new Treaty - after more than 6 years of negotiations (since the Laeken Declaration), or moving forward without Ireland. But that will also depend on Ireland itself.

It's stuff like that which makes it so difficult to feel anything but antipathy towards this treaty. Why are we even bothering with this charade of democratic process if these Eurocrats are just going to go ahead with their institutional masterpiece, whatever we say?

Elected representatives of 26 other EU states are not Eurocrats.

The referendum is a charade. The result will not hold up institutional reform of the union, not should it.

The EU is vital to our interests. Without it, we may as well just switch off the lights.

I admit some of the above maybe a bit contraversial and I welcome any comments on this - but I feel its a reality that is out there and has to be acknowledged.

Edo

I have been saying pretty well all of this for years mate on another Site and was called every name under the sun for doing so.

This is good news though - Immigration is fast becoming a major political issue.

Fact is senior politicians told bare faced lies about the consequences of voting Yes in Nice II - we were told only a few thousand would reach our shores etc etc etc and yet they came by the hundreds of thousands...

Now its payback time...

Ard-Taoiseach wrote:

Edo wrote:

Now its middle class and middle class wannabes who are bringing it up the most - our immigrant community are , just like we did , but even faster because so many are extremely well educated and have good social skills , are climbing the value chain and as I always felt - when the middle class start squealing then the party is coming to an end regarding how smoothly immigration has been going here.

Right, thanks for the clarification, Edo. We, however, we can draw succour from the OECD report forecasting a decline in unemployment next year. That can smooth out any incipient problems.

Dont take this the wrong way Ard - but I dont think telling folks not to worry - the OECD says everything is going to be fine next year - after the turmoil of the last 12 months and the effects that all only hitting home now - is going to cut much ice on the doorstep. Confidence is confidence and predicting the direction of that has put many fine economists into serious debt with their Shrinks.

Edo wrote:

Ard-Taoiseach wrote:

Edo wrote:

Now its middle class and middle class wannabes who are bringing it up the most - our immigrant community are , just like we did , but even faster because so many are extremely well educated and have good social skills , are climbing the value chain and as I always felt - when the middle class start squealing then the party is coming to an end regarding how smoothly immigration has been going here.

Right, thanks for the clarification, Edo. We, however, we can draw succour from the OECD report forecasting a decline in unemployment next year. That can smooth out any incipient problems.

Dont take this the wrong way Ard - but I dont think telling folks not to worry - the OECD says everything is going to be fine next year - after the turmoil of the last 12 months and the effects that all only hitting home now - is going to cut much ice on the doorstep. Confidence is confidence and predicting the direction of that has put many fine economists into serious debt with their Shrinks.

I know that as well, Edo. It's irritating how narrowly focused and short-termist people can be. The economic gyrations of the last 12 months are bound to have a political effect. That OECD report is quite cheery, though. 4.2% growth next year is pretty chunky. Maybe if you were to re-package the good stuff from the OECD and the IMF, you could get a warmer reception?

Kate P wrote:

And how are they raising it, Edo?

In most cases its very subtle Kate - nobody wants to come across as a complete NAZI on the doorstep, especially in middleclass Dublin 6 - but the worry about getting the Kids into the private schools around here- ie so they wont have to mix with undesirables- For others ,particularly the elderly - the change in the character of the area - Rathmines , no doubt about it is turning into a melting pot and for some its just too much. Economic uncertainty and in particular when that uncertainty starts to involve ones assumed social position and status - particularly in finance and marketing - the staples around here for the middleclasses outside the professions - nobody wants to say it directly

Let us just say I've had a lot of "Im not a Xenophobe, some of my best friends are Xenos , but I have to say that..............."

One thing I am absolutely sure of is that the presence of Polish people here has not caused the economic crisis we are facing into. And the other thing we can be sure of is that that won't stop people trying to get political capital out of pretending that they did.

Did immigration come up at Libertas's Tallaght meeting Kate?

I wonder if the issues would be the same down the country - what do you think?

Kate P wrote:

I wonder if the issues would be the same down the country - what do you think?

Don't think immigration will really be much of an issue - the poles have been seen as a bit of an answer to rural depopulation in some places ...

Brandubh wrote:

I have been saying pretty well all of this for years
mate on another Site and was called every name under the sun for doing
so.

Yes but you were upsetting some of the delicate people there.

Quote :

Fact
is senior politicians told bare faced lies about the consequences of
voting Yes in Nice II - we were told only a few thousand would reach
our shores etc etc etc and yet they came by the hundreds of
thousands...

Agreed.

Quote :

Now its payback time...

Well
as long as everyone plays nicely and nobody gets hurt. However
there should be penalties imposed on the politicians who lied.

Regards...jmcc

WTO has come up at a lot of local meetings - but I know that IFA members are encouraging each other to go along and let speakers know that unless there's a guarantee that the Gvt will veto any WTO agreement, there will be an IFA no-vote.

Immigration didn't come up at the Libertas meeting. It did come up at the Blanchardstown Forum meeting, but to be honest, I don't think I've heard it anywhere else.

cactus flower wrote:

One thing I am absolutely sure of is that the presence of Polish people here has not caused the economic crisis we are facing into. And the other thing we can be sure of is that that won't stop people trying to get political capital out of pretending that they did.

Did immigration come up at Libertas's Tallaght meeting Kate?

To reply to you CF, and Kate and Auditor - I think there is suble change going on.

My little home village would be a prime example. When the Poles and Latvians et all arrived it was a real novelty and they were needed in rural Ireland and the fact that they were, lets be blunt about it, white,catholic, hard workers and hard drinkers and that their women were serious lookers and didn't discriminate , the fact that they in a lot of cases, were innocent pawns in some massive cases of displacement and that they were as rapicious as the Spanish when it came to the depletion of the local fish reserves were overlooked by the energy and dynamism they brought to small town Ireland and the fact that there was jobs for all as all the local lads set up their own construction and construction related empires - it was a full on Dallas experience down home.

Times and things have changed and the mood is lot more somber now - My Dad is still learning polish and goes fishing with Kyrs, Zebedee and Karllis who are working in the metal works next door every weekend - he is a pretty easy going bloke and is used to new experience having been dragged to the 4 ends of the world by his children and their various relationships with individuals of every nationality bar Mars over the last decade and a half - but go into the very depleted pub scene on a Saturday night and you get dark mutterings of a very different nature - the construction bust is hitting hard. Having said that many of the poles are going home , but there is an edge to things down home that there wasnt there before.

People who have nothing are normally the most open minded - people had nothing 20 years ago, got everthing over the last 10 years and now are finding that things are being slowly taken away from them are a very dangerous animal indeed.

Edo wrote:

cactus flower wrote:

One thing I am absolutely sure of is that the presence of Polish people here has not caused the economic crisis we are facing into. And the other thing we can be sure of is that that won't stop people trying to get political capital out of pretending that they did.

Did immigration come up at Libertas's Tallaght meeting Kate?

To reply to you CF, and Kate and Auditor - I think there is suble change going on.

My little home village would be a prime example. When the Poles and Latvians et all arrived it was a real novelty and they were needed in rural Ireland and the fact that they were, lets be blunt about it, white,catholic, hard workers and hard drinkers and that their women were serious lookers and didn't discriminate , the fact that they in a lot of cases, were innocent pawns in some massive cases of displacement and that they were as rapicious as the Spanish when it came to the depletion of the local fish reserves were overlooked by the energy and dynamism they brought to small town Ireland and the fact that there was jobs for all as all the local lads set up their own construction and construction related empires - it was a full on Dallas experience down home.

Times and things have changed and the mood is lot more somber now - My Dad is still learning polish and goes fishing with Kyrs, Zebedee and Karllis who are working in the metal works next door every weekend - he is a pretty easy going bloke and is used to new experience having been dragged to the 4 ends of the world by his children and their various relationships with individuals of every nationality bar Mars over the last decade and a half - but go into the very depleted pub scene on a Saturday night and you get dark mutterings of a very different nature - the construction bust is hitting hard. Having said that many of the poles are going home , but there is an edge to things down home that there wasnt there before.

People who have nothing are normally the most open minded - people had nothing 20 years ago, got everthing over the last 10 years and now are finding that things are being slowly taken away from them are a very dangerous animal indeed.

That's a pretty accurate description of the mood about that place.

What is so bloody frustrating is that this was all forseen, which make you wonder why on earth the Government decided to have a referendum on an EU issue at this time. Its ludicrous.

The only thing that is keeping me sane in all of this is the belief that if the referendum is defeated, the rest of the EU will say to the Government: "Too bad. Tell you what, we're going to go ahead anyway. Give us a shout when you get it sorted."

eloquently put Edo thank you.

Kate P wrote:

Immigration didn't come up at the Libertas meeting. It
did come up at the Blanchardstown Forum meeting, but to be honest, I
don't think I've heard it anywhere else.

It may well be that the
immigration problem will be split along class lines and those most
affected will be in the working class and poorer areas. What is really
going to kill Lisbon is when middle class parents can't find Summer
jobs for their kids. But those at the bottom of the ladder have had to
cope with displacement and competition for resources, services and
housing.

Just noticing that yet another of the immigration threads on P.ie has
unsurprisingly degenerated into a slanging match. That place really has
gone to the dogs.

Regards...jmcc

I was in a small town in the Midlands the other night where 40 people were learning Polish - the number had been higher but two big funerals in the town two weeks in a row had depleted numbers (that and the Liverpool-Chelsea horror).

The mood there was really positive - with people wanting to be able to communicate in some way with those they meet everyday in or through work or even socially. I spoke to quite a lot of people and there was none of the undertone of which you speak. But that doesn't mean it's not there. Yet.

Kate P wrote:

I was in a small town in the Midlands the other night where 40 people were learning Polish - the number had been higher but two big funerals in the town two weeks in a row had depleted numbers (that and the Liverpool-Chelsea horror).

The mood there was really positive - with people wanting to be able to communicate in some way with those they meet everyday in or through work or even socially. I spoke to quite a lot of people and there was none of the undertone of which you speak. But that doesn't mean it's not there. Yet.

thats great Kate - good for you and good for your community and long may it continue

Different areas of the country have been and will be hit harder in the coming economic storm depending on what other economic activity there is in the area and its proximity to Dublin and its jobs - Lets hope it just a passing squall - but given the makeup of our economic boom (ie so so much of it domestic construction related) I have a feeling that there are flocks of chickens come home to roost now.