Upcoming ICC Ruling on Darfur War-Crimes

Guest

The International Criminal Court is expected to decide whether to issue an arrest warrant for Al-Bashir, the president of Sudan, in the next few weeks. If they do decide to issue a warrant it is very unclear what will happen then. Sudan may well ignore it, it's certainly very unlikely that they will depose him and hand him over. It will greatly weaken him however, and it may bring about a shift in power. Arguably, things can't get any worse, so a change is good. But it has been suggested that a Balkanisation is possible, with dire portents for peace in the already volatile region: SudanTribune article : Sudan faces fragmenting north, says scholar

The Security Council members could veto it indefinitely using article 16 of the Rome Statute.

Quote :

This has been requested by the AU, the Arab League, and even France. Russia and China are also likely to consider it. Their reasons:

Sudan is going through a difficult peace process right now, with a fragile peace in the South. Before Darfur came along, the government in Khartoum were fighting a vicious war with rebels in Southern Sudan, in which over two million civilians are said to have been killed. There is an election coming up in Sudan, and the last thing they need is government instability. Experts argue that utilising article 16 will give outside powers the chance to ensure proper peace process for the South and some sort of deal for Darfur.

The downside is yet another dictator will have gotten away with it scot free. Darfur won’t get the justice they deserve and other dictators will be relieved to know that the ICC is powerless when they have something to bargain with. The US is pressing for a conviction and I think the NGOs too.

So do we take the risk of destabilising the area for a warrant that probably won’t lead to a trial which might have gone is way anyway? Peace or the chance for justice seems to be the choice.

Guest

Upcoming ICC Ruling on Darfur War-Crimes Map-of-darfur

Would like to know more about this. I notice that the US Israeli accord signed in Washington last week referred to Sudan-Iran links.

Here is a map, anyway.

Guest

Sudan's government has been in the bad books for many years. They sheltered Bin Laden back in the nineties and I think were implicated in the embassy bombings in the region about ten years ago. The US certainly linked Al-Bashir's regime to the World Trade Centre bombing.

Back in the eighties it was the other way around. The Islamists were courted as they were as opposed to communism as the Yanks. Libya was a bit socialist and Ethiopia was certainly Marxist. The Southern Sudanese rebels were recieving support from these people, as well as Russia and Cuba.

I don't know about links to Iran. There are quite a few links to China as I'm sure ye know. An awful lot of weapons and oil traded.

Guest

The ICC has finally decided to issue the warrant. The president of Sudan has been charged with war crimes, there's no news yet on article 16 blockings.
BBC - Warrant issued for Sudan's leader

The report is rather dismissve of the warrant, as the ICC can't force Sudan to give him up. But the warrant has other implications.
Sudan Tribune - Sudanese president risks apprehension following arrest warrant: Lawyer
The warrant severly curtails the amount of foreign travel he can safely do. It casts a big black blot on Sudan itself. Even with an article 16 injunction, he will be a hostage to the will of others.

Guest

What do the Chinese think about this ? Are they in the Sudan too ?

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