Sunday Independent Poll 11.1.08 - Cowen, Gormley, hammered - Kenny limps on - Yes vote up


The poll of 500 people, carried out on Friday, shows that in the immediate aftermath of the country's reputation as a location for high-technology industry receiving a devastating setback, with the loss of 1,900 jobs at Dell, the popularity of Fianna Fail (28 per cent) down eight points since our last poll in August 2008, and the Greens (two per cent) down four points is worst hit.

Satisfaction with the Taoiseach, Brian Cowen (35 per cent), down 10 points, and John Gormley (39 per cent), down six points, is also haemorrhaging, in stark contrast to the fortunes of the Opposition parties.

Fine Gael (27 per cent), up four points and Labour (18 per cent), up six points, have emerged as clear favourites to form the next Government.

Their respective leaders, Enda Kenny (35 per cent), up four points, and Eamon Gilmore (58 per cent), up 17 points, also seem to have consolidated favour with the electorate.

The surge in support for Labour, and particularly its leader, Mr Gilmore, comes in the aftermath of that party's trenchant and increasingly personal criticism of the Government and its leaders.

As the economy continues to decline at an alarming rate, the poll has also picked up on the public's fear, with a huge swing in support of the Lisbon Treaty: 55 per cent (up 16 per cent since we last asked that question in our December 12 poll) now say they will vote Yes, while 37 per cent (down seven per cent) say they will vote No, while 15 per cent are undecided (24 per cent in December).

Quote :

After months of indecision, the Government has finally arrived at the point where it must take drastic measures to prevent further decline of the economy to the point where prolonged damage of up to 10 years may occur.

Yesterday, there were reports of a difference of opinion between the Taoiseach and the Minister for Finance, Brian Lenihan, in relation to the speed and extent of remedial action.

The battleground, therefore, has been drawn around the issue of public sector reform, the debate centring on the issue of job losses and pay cuts.

The Taoiseach's preferred option of negotiating such reform through the mechanism of Social Partnership showed signs last night of developing into a protracted affair. Mr Lenihan, meanwhile, is urging all haste.

Yesterday, SIPTU General Secretary, Jack O'Connor said that: "The unilateral imposition of cuts in rates of pay will meet with stout resistance from trade union members generally."

Mr O'Connor's comments followed similar remarks on Friday by Peter McLoone, who assured his 60,000 public sector members that he "will not negotiate public service pay cuts with the Government".

The Finance Minister, however, has said that both numbers and pay in the public sector would have to be looked at, while the Taoiseach has only said such issues would have to be "discussed" with the social partners.

Yesterday, Fine Gael finance spokesman, Richard Bruton sought to exploit the prospect of a difference of emphasis between the two most senior people in Government. He said: "The promise of a mini-Budget by Minister Lenihan at the end of January was undermined by the clear lack of co-ordination with the Taoiseach's office."

In an article in today's Sunday Independent, former Labour leader, Ruairi Quinn also raises questions over the Government's approach through Social Partnership. He says: "The broad outline of what needs to be done should be spelt out and debated in Leinster House. The implementation of some of the measures can be negotiated, in detail, with the Social Partners where necessary."

There are now more than 290,000 unemployment claimants on the Live Register. A total of 22,777 people signed on for the first time last month, as companies shed staff before Christmas.

The Central Statistics Office (CSO) said that the estimated unemployment rate has now reached 8.3 per cent, up from the November estimate of 7.8 per cent.

It is now feared that the rate of job losses will accelerate further, with a massive redundancy announcement at computer manufacturer Dell and hundreds of jobs in the balance at Waterford Crystal and Tara Mines.

The number of people on the Live Register is expected to surpass the 300,000 mark for the first time as early as next month and economists expect the unemployment rate to reach 10 per cent by the middle of the year.

Following an €8bn fall in tax revenue, the Government has now warned that revenues will fall by a further €4bn this year to €37bn, before remaining at that figure for 2010.

Mr Lenihan is to produce an emergency plan to cut €2bn off this year's spending as agreed in the October Budget.

Tax revenues, now back to 2005 levels, will not return to last year's disastrous performance until 2012, and they will bring in just €42bn the following year.

- JODY CORCORAN

A poll of 500 is, well... not very satisfactory from a national newspaper.

johnfás wrote:

A poll of 500 is, well... not very satisfactory from a national newspaper.

It must be the cuts. Its credibility is reduced - it should be 1,000. Its not likely to be seriously out of kilter though.

Not likely to be seriously out of kilter but 500 is not a satisfactory sample for any national poll.

That intire paper is not worth buying.

Some topics they don't understand,
most is just copied off the newswires and the rest is days later than everyplace else. It's days are numbered

It is an absolute rag but I am not sure its days are numbered necessarily. It has a much larger circulation than alot of newspapers. In fact I think it might be the single biggest selling newspaper in the State? Doesn't make it a decent paper of course - most people buy it for the poor celebrity gossip.

Its a bit of a "dog bites man" story.
I would have expected nothing less from potential voters. These are the kind of numbers that will see a full-term government. FF and the greens will be sh1tting themselves for a couple of years. The Locals must be considered a write-off at this stage.

youngdan wrote:

That intire paper is not worth buying.

Some topics they don't understand,
most is just copied off the newswires and the rest is days later than everyplace else. It's days are numbered

Now now, the only reason people buy the paper is for its amazing opinion pieces.

It's not likely to be seriously out of kilter with Fanning and O'Reilly's interests you mean. It's credibility is not reduced. It's the same as it ever was. Nil.

cactus flower wrote:

The poll of 500 people, carried out on Friday, shows that in the immediate aftermath of the country's reputation as a location for high-technology industry receiving a devastating setback, with the loss of 1,900 jobs at Dell, the popularity of Fianna Fail (28 per cent) down eight points since our last poll in August 2008, and the Greens (two per cent) down four points is worst hit.

Satisfaction with the Taoiseach, Brian Cowen (35 per cent), down 10 points, and John Gormley (39 per cent), down six points, is also haemorrhaging, in stark contrast to the fortunes of the Opposition parties.

Fine Gael (27 per cent), up four points and Labour (18 per cent), up six points, have emerged as clear favourites to form the next Government.

Their respective leaders, Enda Kenny (35 per cent), up four points, and Eamon Gilmore (58 per cent), up 17 points, also seem to have consolidated favour with the electorate.

The surge in support for Labour, and particularly its leader, Mr Gilmore, comes in the aftermath of that party's trenchant and increasingly personal criticism of the Government and its leaders.

As the economy continues to decline at an alarming rate, the poll has also picked up on the public's fear, with a huge swing in support of the Lisbon Treaty: 55 per cent (up 16 per cent since we last asked that question in our December 12 poll) now say they will vote Yes, while 37 per cent (down seven per cent) say they will vote No, while 15 per cent are undecided (24 per cent in December).

Quote :

After months of indecision, the Government has finally arrived at the point where it must take drastic measures to prevent further decline of the economy to the point where prolonged damage of up to 10 years may occur.

Yesterday, there were reports of a difference of opinion between the Taoiseach and the Minister for Finance, Brian Lenihan, in relation to the speed and extent of remedial action.

The battleground, therefore, has been drawn around the issue of public sector reform, the debate centring on the issue of job losses and pay cuts.

The Taoiseach's preferred option of negotiating such reform through the mechanism of Social Partnership showed signs last night of developing into a protracted affair. Mr Lenihan, meanwhile, is urging all haste.

Yesterday, SIPTU General Secretary, Jack O'Connor said that: "The unilateral imposition of cuts in rates of pay will meet with stout resistance from trade union members generally."

Mr O'Connor's comments followed similar remarks on Friday by Peter McLoone, who assured his 60,000 public sector members that he "will not negotiate public service pay cuts with the Government".

The Finance Minister, however, has said that both numbers and pay in the public sector would have to be looked at, while the Taoiseach has only said such issues would have to be "discussed" with the social partners.

Yesterday, Fine Gael finance spokesman, Richard Bruton sought to exploit the prospect of a difference of emphasis between the two most senior people in Government. He said: "The promise of a mini-Budget by Minister Lenihan at the end of January was undermined by the clear lack of co-ordination with the Taoiseach's office."

In an article in today's Sunday Independent, former Labour leader, Ruairi Quinn also raises questions over the Government's approach through Social Partnership. He says: "The broad outline of what needs to be done should be spelt out and debated in Leinster House. The implementation of some of the measures can be negotiated, in detail, with the Social Partners where necessary."

There are now more than 290,000 unemployment claimants on the Live Register. A total of 22,777 people signed on for the first time last month, as companies shed staff before Christmas.

The Central Statistics Office (CSO) said that the estimated unemployment rate has now reached 8.3 per cent, up from the November estimate of 7.8 per cent.

It is now feared that the rate of job losses will accelerate further, with a massive redundancy announcement at computer manufacturer Dell and hundreds of jobs in the balance at Waterford Crystal and Tara Mines.

The number of people on the Live Register is expected to surpass the 300,000 mark for the first time as early as next month and economists expect the unemployment rate to reach 10 per cent by the middle of the year.

Following an €8bn fall in tax revenue, the Government has now warned that revenues will fall by a further €4bn this year to €37bn, before remaining at that figure for 2010.

Mr Lenihan is to produce an emergency plan to cut €2bn off this year's spending as agreed in the October Budget.

Tax revenues, now back to 2005 levels, will not return to last year's disastrous performance until 2012, and they will bring in just €42bn the following year.

- JODY CORCORAN

55 plus 37 plus 15 equals 107 percent. Interesting maths there.

I treat the results of these polls by the Sunday Independent with a great degree of suspicion. I find they are the least reliable of the polls with Red C and tns MRBI doing far better work in accurately capturing the mood of the nation at a particular moment in time. While they have accurately captured the trend, I wouldn't put much store in the full precision of these numbers since they come from half the sample size of similar polls, are conducted over the phone and don't adjust for don't knows as well as others.

905 wrote:

youngdan wrote:

That intire paper is not worth buying.

Some topics they don't understand,
most is just copied off the newswires and the rest is days later than everyplace else. It's days are numbered

Now now, the only reason people buy the paper is for its amazing opinion pieces.

And the glossy pictures of posh girls in their knickers.

cookiemonster wrote:

905 wrote:

youngdan wrote:

That intire paper is not worth buying.

Some topics they don't understand,
most is just copied off the newswires and the rest is days later than everyplace else. It's days are numbered

Now now, the only reason people buy the paper is for its amazing opinion pieces.

And the glossy pictures of posh girls in their knickers.

That's what they print when we are obedient and should be rewarded. Otherwise we get this if we've been bold:

The figures for Lisbon are actually
Yes 55%
No 30%
Don't know 15%
(from page 2)

Although it is not a poll I would have any great faith in - it gives the impression of having been conducted in South County Dublin. The SBP poll in a couple of weeks will be more interesting..

I'm pro Lisbon and I wouldn't trust the Sindo poll. Agreed about the SBP one.

Ronald Binge wrote:

cookiemonster wrote:

905 wrote:

youngdan wrote:

That intire paper is not worth buying.

Some topics they don't understand,
most is just copied off the newswires and the rest is days later than everyplace else. It's days are numbered

Now now, the only reason people buy the paper is for its amazing opinion pieces.

And the glossy pictures of posh girls in their knickers.

That's what they print when we are obedient and should be rewarded. Otherwise we get this if we've been bold:

I saw that on my way to work the other morning. What a way to run a day that's just begun.

A meaningless poll from a meaningless paper.

- a 500 participant survey is effectively worthless.

- Sunday Independent 'polls' are dodgy to put it mildly and usually spun to suggest that the Sindo's editorial line is right.

It is always as meaningless as the biased comment about Enda Kenny 'limping on' even though according to this poll his support is up 4 and his party is up 4. Some limp.

DeGaulle wrote:

The figures for Lisbon are actually
Yes 55%
No 30%
Don't know 15%
(from page 2)

Although it is not a poll I would have any great faith in - it gives the impression of having been conducted in South County Dublin. The SBP poll in a couple of weeks will be more interesting..

And the Irish Times one even more so. tns MRBI do the best polling in Ireland so it will be very valuable to see where they put those percentages.

Ronald Binge wrote:

cookiemonster wrote:

905 wrote:

youngdan wrote:

That intire paper is not worth buying.

Some topics they don't understand,
most is just copied off the newswires and the rest is days later than everyplace else. It's days are numbered

Now now, the only reason people buy the paper is for its amazing opinion pieces.

And the glossy pictures of posh girls in their knickers.

That's what they print when we are obedient and should be rewarded. Otherwise we get this if we've been bold:

At least now that RTE has axed the 'talent' show he was that nutter is gone from our television screens.

You didn't see Tubridy then at new year? Car crash television.

Papal Knight wrote:

A meaningless poll from a meaningless paper.

- a 500 participant survey is effectively worthless.

- Sunday Independent 'polls' are dodgy to put it mildly and usually spun to suggest that the Sindo's editorial line is right.

It is always as meaningless as the biased comment about Enda Kenny 'limping on' even though according to this poll his support is up 4 and his party is up 4. Some limp.

I have to say I wasn't very satisfied myself with the term "limping", but struggled to find a concise way of expressing what seems to me to be a very slow/feeble progress relative to the opportunity arising from the present circumstances. Would you like to suggest alternative wording?

With regards to Kenny, I think that solid would be a better choice of description. Fine Gael leaders are always going to find it very difficult to do well in these kind of polls. From my experience its much easier for a FFer or person from a SF background to acknowledge Labour than it is to do the same for FG. It may have something to do with Labour not being perceived as being a threat(they at least can be accomodated in colaition) or it may be based on perceptions of the national question.

Respvblica wrote:

With regards to Kenny, I think that solid would be better. Fine Gael leaders are always going to find it very difficult to do well in these kind of polls. From my experience its much easier for a FFer or person from a SF background to acknowledge Labour than it is to do the same for FG. It may have something to do with Labour not being perceived as being a threat(they at least can be accomodated in colaition) or it may be based on perceptions of the national question.

I would like to change the wording, but "solid" is not quite right - 35 per cent satisfaction rate - same as Cowen, less than Gormley and half that of Gilmore, is not solid, its disastrous.
I have no allegiance to either FF or FG - I'm just calling it how I see it.

cactus flower wrote:

Respvblica wrote:

With regards to Kenny, I think that solid would be better. Fine Gael leaders are always going to find it very difficult to do well in these kind of polls. From my experience its much easier for a FFer or person from a SF background to acknowledge Labour than it is to do the same for FG. It may have something to do with Labour not being perceived as being a threat(they at least can be accomodated in colaition) or it may be based on perceptions of the national question.

I would like to change the wording, but "solid" is not quite right - 35 per cent satisfaction rate - same as Cowen, less than Gormley and half that of Gilmore, is not solid, its disastrous.
I have no allegiance to either FF or FG - I'm just calling it how I see it.

Well dont listen to me then as I would be biased in this.

As to leadership, and this could deserve a thread on its own, I think that while it can be effective and can make a difference, assigning too much power and too much importance on to a single office or a single individual is folly.

EK has 35% satisfaction, which is more than the FG support and thats good enough for me.
By ideology I am utterly opposed to the concept of the Fuhrerprinzip and anything that tends in that direction. When W.T.Cosgrave led the first national irish government, he did so under the title of president of the executive. What we need is an honourable man, presiding over the executives, not dominating it. If you read the Sunday papers, especially the Sindo, you will hear them screaming for leadership. Its as if the people need the strong man at the helm so that they can return to the non-thinking world and gorge themselves on consumerist excess. And the pathetic thing is that Cowen will attempt to play to that game, by talking tough and by pretending to the country that he is in control. And we wonder why the ministers are such idiots?
The reality is, is that if you dont allow good people to take responsibility, if you dont listen to what they say(did Lenihan really want finance?) then you can make them appear like fools. Cowen is the biggest fool. He has 35% because there are still 30% in FF and the 5% could be in the statistical range of variance.

I may be wrong as we don't have the full poll results, but I think the percentage for the parties is based on how people say they would vote, and the percentage for the party leaders is a satisfaction/performance rating. Hence the 67% for Gilmore. The two therefore are not really comparable in relation to EK and the FG vote.

I share your opposition to the "strong leader" thing which is the opposite of what we need (all hands to the pump collective action). On the other hand, Enda K has imo an enormous body language problem which may be symptomatic of fundamentally of some negative feelings.

He keeps his head down when he speaks and is over tentative, and stammers. He dresses and keeps his hair in a strangely outdated mammy's boy style.

He seems to have no idea that every time FF politicians are on camera they select a carefully managed setting - school children, an impressive state building, whatever.
Enda gave an important interview last year in front of a tasselled curtain that made him look as though he was wearing a weird hat. I didn't hear a word he was saying.

It is with reluctance that I am passing on what is valuable information to FG, as I have no wish to see him leading the country.

What people's are looking for is someone normal-looking and with at least basic self confidence.

Off to Carr Communications with him in the morning.