Subject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond / Thu Dec 11, 2008 4:37 am
Technical analysis is something else. Huge textbooks are written on it. Every zig-zag has a name. And if you are wrong then what looked like a head and shoulder top can now b e more easily seen as a rising bowl bottom.
A famous guy who believed in waves was a Russian who was spot on and a genius. Unfortunatly he was not to glick and he predicted to Stalin that tough times were ahead. He was right for the last time as Stalin did not like bad news and he sent him to Siberia where he turned into an ice-pop.
Subject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond / Thu Dec 11, 2008 11:04 am
How the hell did America lose 500,000 jobs in November youngdan ? In the first week of December you've lost 34,000 jobs already according to a ticker on that CNN video I just posted on the Vehicles thread.
I can see the point about 2 or 3 million jobs going if the Auto Industry was allowed to fail but I don't think bailouts are the answer.
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Subject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond / Thu Dec 11, 2008 11:34 am
You have got to remember Audi that all the money you hear about is being funnelled in at the top. Meanwhile at the bottom everyone is flat broke. From mid Sept. spending just dried up. The economy is a dead man walking.
Dinosaur juice at 1.57 a gal down from over 4 dollars. Says it all.
Any sign of riots back there in Clare. At least you are looking forward to the sausage returning. Told you it was horseshythe.
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Subject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond / Thu Dec 11, 2008 12:03 pm
No riots but plenty of demonstrations. I don't think I've seen so many demonstrations about local issues like education, farming and the hospital for a long time. Usually demonstrations happen in Dublin and are about America leaving Iraq but I suppose people feel squeezed here from all angles so they're taking to the streets in one shape or another.
It looks like the Govt. might do a U-turn on the farm changes that happened to Clare farmers. Apparently Clare farmers get special treatment because we are very good-looking but sometimes we get some extra dosh because our land is feckin shyte (it's ok to say feck now).
Farmers here were going to lose upto 2 grand a year in grants and supports but they're threatening to vote FG en masse and apparently the County would implode if there was no FF people here so these subsidies might return.
This German or Austrian youtuber is good I think. I watched some of his shows from the earlier part of the year and he predicted the banking trouble we saw later in the year. He works in these markets as a buyer I think. Pity he doesn't go on about the German economy a bit more but here he is predicting a massive sell-off of stocks in the New Year. With his German accent and logic he is telling you that there will be chaos the way he would tell you how you would defrost the windows of your car or a fridge.
Subject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond / Thu Dec 11, 2008 12:42 pm
With interest rates so low, how are banks supposed to function? How can they cover bad debts and generate money for loans?
Quote :
11/12/2008 - 09:21:17 The Swiss National Bank cut its key interest rate in half to 0.5% today – its fourth reduction since October.
The move came a week after European central banks cut their rates in an attempt to ward off a long recession triggered by the financial crisis.
Before cutting its interest rate to 2.5% in October, the Swiss bank had reduced its rates only once in the last five-and-a-half years.
It cut its rates twice last month, to 1%.
Only once in the past has the bank’s key interest been lower – 0.375% between March 2003 and June 2004.
Experts have forecast a 0.5% drop in Switzerland’s real GDP for the coming year.
Breaking News
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Subject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond / Thu Dec 11, 2008 10:02 pm
Yeah that's an interesting one cactus - interest rates lower, how do banks make any money ? Am I wrong in saying it could be the volume of good business they are doing that counts moreso than their profits ? As long as they have some money coming in then they can get subbed from other banks or the share market. If the share price climbs at all then they can issue new capital and they'll look good for lending from banks which have plenty of money. There plenty of banks who have plenty of money too still.
Here is the Beardy Guy, not doing some rap music but talking about buying Gold krugerrands. Gold has gone from 775$ to 825$ between 9th and 11th of December and it had a similar spike this time last year as Beardy reminds us. Christmas presents for the missusses of the world ? People getting hitched around now perhaps ? Going on honeymoon for New Year's Eve ? Or something more sinister perhaps like Alex Jones, the filthy rich megalomaniac buying up tons and tons of it so he and his New World Order friends can live off it when the whole shebang goes pear-shaped ?
Mr. Beard makes a fair point now towards the end - we intend to change it back into currencies later when things get more stable so gold tends to be a safe place to put your money for now while currencies are imploding. You don't make too much money it just holds value so you can translate it back into currency again later. But if the whole thing goes belly up then what exactly will you translate all your krugerrands into ? Or are they intended to be used to bribe your oppressors as they are kicking in your door ? Can you really imagine Alex Jones taking a couple of krugerrands and leaving your house alone with his sledgehammer ? Gold buyers: just more suckers or wha ?
Subject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond / Thu Dec 11, 2008 10:07 pm
God, this is a depressing Depression thread. Can't we talk about cushions and puppies? Everything's just so black here. Black. Black. Black....
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Subject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond / Thu Dec 11, 2008 10:15 pm
Auditor #9 wrote:
No riots but plenty of demonstrations. I don't think I've seen so many demonstrations about local issues like education, farming and the hospital for a long time. Usually demonstrations happen in Dublin and are about America leaving Iraq but I suppose people feel squeezed here from all angles so they're taking to the streets in one shape or another.
It looks like the Govt. might do a U-turn on the farm changes that happened to Clare farmers. Apparently Clare farmers get special treatment because we are very good-looking but sometimes we get some extra dosh because our land is feckin shyte (it's ok to say feck now).
Farmers here were going to lose upto 2 grand a year in grants and supports but they're threatening to vote FG en masse and apparently the County would implode if there was no FF people here so these subsidies might return.
This German or Austrian youtuber is good I think. I watched some of his shows from the earlier part of the year and he predicted the banking trouble we saw later in the year. He works in these markets as a buyer I think. Pity he doesn't go on about the German economy a bit more but here he is predicting a massive sell-off of stocks in the New Year. With his German accent and logic he is telling you that there will be chaos the way he would tell you how you would defrost the windows of your car or a fridge.
This guy strikes me as a little eccentric, Auditor #9, but telling it how he sees it. He says that there has been an explosion of cash pumped into the system in the last month. Its fine to say "buy gold and buy copper". Most people just want to be able to buy the week's groceries.
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Subject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond / Thu Dec 11, 2008 10:18 pm
And why are they not able to buy the groceries
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Subject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond / Thu Dec 11, 2008 10:19 pm
Auditor #9 wrote:
Yeah that's an interesting one cactus - interest rates lower, how do banks make any money ? Am I wrong in saying it could be the volume of good business they are doing that counts moreso than their profits ? As long as they have some money coming in then they can get subbed from other banks or the share market. If the share price climbs at all then they can issue new capital and they'll look good for lending from banks which have plenty of money. There plenty of banks who have plenty of money too still.
Here is the Beardy Guy, not doing some rap music but talking about buying Gold krugerrands. Gold has gone from 775$ to 825$ between 9th and 11th of December and it had a similar spike this time last year as Beardy reminds us. Christmas presents for the missusses of the world ? People getting hitched around now perhaps ? Going on honeymoon for New Year's Eve ? Or something more sinister perhaps like Alex Jones, the filthy rich megalomaniac buying up tons and tons of it so he and his New World Order friends can live off it when the whole shebang goes pear-shaped ?
Mr. Beard makes a fair point now towards the end - we intend to change it back into currencies later when things get more stable so gold tends to be a safe place to put your money for now while currencies are imploding. You don't make too much money it just holds value so you can translate it back into currency again later. But if the whole thing goes belly up then what exactly will you translate all your krugerrands into ? Or are they intended to be used to bribe your oppressors as they are kicking in your door ? Can you really imagine Alex Jones taking a couple of krugerrands and leaving your house alone with his sledgehammer ? Gold buyers: just more suckers or wha ?
Currencies aren't imploding. Forex is a zero sum game. The forex market ebbs and flows. Today was a bad day for the dollar but also for the pound. They will appreciate again soon and the dollar, I think, will come back to 1.15/1.20 v the €. Today it hit 1.3400. Currencies don't implode. Stocks implode. Stock indices implode. Commodities implode. But not currencies.
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Subject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond / Thu Dec 11, 2008 10:24 pm
First time I have seen you Slim posting something wrong
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Subject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond / Thu Dec 11, 2008 10:45 pm
What - currencies can implode ? Maybe implode is the wrong word but Beardy Fella used it. Weimer Deutchsmarks, the icelandic kronur is not doing too well either.
Sterling was killed by an investor in the nineties.
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Subject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond / Fri Dec 12, 2008 2:30 pm
A lot of news today - Veto of the US car manufacturers bailout by Republican Senators - not enough wage cuts, pension cuts etc. and not enough pain accepted by bond holders, in their view. Big drop in US financial markets following the above €200 billion "stimulus package" just announced by the EU Commission - supposed to be 1.5% of GDP per State - meeting to be held with Obama on US equivalent.
Printing money cannot solve this. The UK can't live by shopping alone. The idea of getting people to spend their way out of this seems barmy. At least if it goes into infrastructure and keeping businesses going (as per France) they will have something to show for it.
I suppose they will accept NDP spending as Ireland's part in this?
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Subject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond / Fri Dec 12, 2008 2:36 pm
cactus flower wrote:
Printing money cannot solve this. The UK can't live by shopping alone. The idea of getting people to spend their way out of this seems barmy. At least if it goes into infrastructure and keeping businesses going (as per France) they will have something to show for it.
I suppose they will accept NDP spending as Ireland's part in this?
I think this is slightly disingenuous of the British position and perhaps more reflective of our saturation by the British media than the actual position of the British Government. Consumer spending is always a huge part of an economy. However, at the same time over the last 24 hours Britain have announced the details of their £4bn investment in two new aircraft carriers, they will slow production in order to ensure greater employment, it is expected to create 10,000 jobs. Similarly a vote is taking place today on whether to introduce a congestion charge to Manchester, the package will result in £3bn investment in new public transport at Manchester. The development of the Olympic site at London is generating thousands of jobs. If you have been to London recently you will see the huge reinvestment in the Underground system which is taking place owing to the Olympics. We own a house North of London and there is a huge investment going into the local area, it is going to host part of the canoeing events. Similarly a huge amount of money has been granted over the last couple of weeks to the Scottish Executive to fund a huge infrastructural development in Scotland.
Britain continues to offer free postgraduate education for many of the most necessary sectors in their economy. I have a friend who is training to be a primary school teacher postgraduately in Britain because she could not afford to do the course here. My girlfriend was offered free education to train postgraduately as a Speech Therapist in Britain, it is costing her nigh on €10k for tuition over two years here. It appears that they are doing alot more to secure the fundamentals of their economy on the other side of the Irish Sea than our Government is here.
We should examine issues in the broad rather than snapping at soundbites.
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Subject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond / Fri Dec 12, 2008 3:23 pm
In the situation we are in at the minute trying to balance the budgets is going to throw everyone into 20 years of depression. In my childhood in India I can remember towns where there was little or no services probably because there was no money in circulation. There were no restaurants in many towns. The railway station was an oasis. It is hard to get economies in that sort of stagnation moving again.
You do need to invest to create money, but if I go to the bank and ask for a loan to invest they will expect a business plan to show how I can repay. So how can governments repay these sums? If they can it will mean high tax for generations and that is taking money out of the economy.
The problem with much of the government expenditure is; a. It appears to be bailing out, at public expense, many who are of dubious merit and you have to ask could this have been done for less and with less exposure? b. It appears to me that the financial sector is getting undue attention. Does it need to be the size it is? What is its future potential? c. Due to work I may be behind the times, but it appears to me that there is no clear purpose on what governments want to achieve. Yes we want to reflate the economy, but what parts sould you give preference to? It seems random and those with the biggest bowl and brass neck do well. There is NO point in expanding retail if the produce comes from abroad. You need to try to make the money turn in your own economy. In that light (only in that light) war ships good 2.5% off VAT is an utter joke. IMO they should have increased VAT on much of retail to 30%-40% to curb imports. d. Lack of proper forward planning. Brown often goes on about cycles, well he should have spent less in times of plenty and he would be in a strong position now. Instead he has relentlessly increased public expenditure to a point where it is crippling the UK economy. e. If the money spent is borrowed how will it be repaid. The answer IMO is it never will. They will print paper and devalue. f. There is an emphasis on the large and the powerful. What about packages to encourage, small businesses, new businesses etc. Why not the self employed better tax breaks. Less tax on employment? etc etc. g. What are the industries that we wish to encourage, is it reflected in the package? h. How much attention is going towards regulating the miscreants who caused this problem? How much fervour is going into prosecuting those responsible for fraud and showing a real intention to clean up the system. This would help restore confidence and IMO is essential.
It all seems an incoherent muddle to me.
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Subject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond / Fri Dec 12, 2008 3:52 pm
johnfás wrote:
cactus flower wrote:
Printing money cannot solve this. The UK can't live by shopping alone. The idea of getting people to spend their way out of this seems barmy. At least if it goes into infrastructure and keeping businesses going (as per France) they will have something to show for it.
I suppose they will accept NDP spending as Ireland's part in this?
I think this is slightly disingenuous of the British position and perhaps more reflective of our saturation by the British media than the actual position of the British Government. Consumer spending is always a huge part of an economy. However, at the same time over the last 24 hours Britain have announced the details of their £4bn investment in two new aircraft carriers, they will slow production in order to ensure greater employment, it is expected to create 10,000 jobs. Similarly a vote is taking place today on whether to introduce a congestion charge to Manchester, the package will result in £3bn investment in new public transport at Manchester. The development of the Olympic site at London is generating thousands of jobs. If you have been to London recently you will see the huge reinvestment in the Underground system which is taking place owing to the Olympics. We own a house North of London and there is a huge investment going into the local area, it is going to host part of the canoeing events. Similarly a huge amount of money has been granted over the last couple of weeks to the Scottish Executive to fund a huge infrastructural development in Scotland.
Britain continues to offer free postgraduate education for many of the most necessary sectors in their economy. I have a friend who is training to be a primary school teacher postgraduately in Britain because she could not afford to do the course here. My girlfriend was offered free education to train postgraduately as a Speech Therapist in Britain, it is costing her nigh on €10k for tuition over two years here. It appears that they are doing alot more to secure the fundamentals of their economy on the other side of the Irish Sea than our Government is here.
We should examine issues in the broad rather than snapping at soundbites.
I've lost two replies to this - is that something to do with inflation ?
Britain is a former colonial country that has been living off its fat for years and has the delusion that it can live off "service sector" employment, house buying and banking. It can't compete with lower cost production from the East. I agree with Squire that the response is a muddle.
The bit that frightens me is the aircraft carriers. Depressions exert a powerful drag towards war, to get control of resources, divert angry populations, stimulate production (even if only of materiel that will be blown up), and to destroy non-productive assets. If an aircraft carrier is not used in war to procure resources, it is a dead loss to the economy.
The good things going in Britain, like the remains of the health service and free education, were gained mainly by the Trade Union movement in the post war years. At that stage Britain was still a great industrial power. The question of how to pay for these things in the future hasn't been answered.
Soundbites? Is that what Angela Merkel was reacting to when she was giving out about the British approach?
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Subject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond / Fri Dec 12, 2008 4:12 pm
Squire wrote:
... c. Due to work I may be behind the times, but it appears to me that there is no clear purpose on what governments want to achieve. Yes we want to reflate the economy, but what parts sould you give preference to? It seems random and those with the biggest bowl and brass neck do well. There is NO point in expanding retail if the produce comes from abroad. You need to try to make the money turn in your own economy. In that light (only in that light) war ships good 2.5% off VAT is an utter joke. IMO they should have increased VAT on much of retail to 30%-40% to curb imports. .. .. It all seems an incoherent muddle to me.
That's it - planning. Have we any plan at all ? Is there a structure to the spending of the stimulus package ? If we did something smart with it like use it to put in a broadband system for example and try to boost computer use then perhaps more people would end up here for instance
I'm wondering if there is a need for entire economies to 'breathe out' and take a rest ? I don't kill myself when I'm working but I found the boom that happened in Dublin since 1997 or so to be huge pain in the unmentionables for a while. Too much traffic, house prices gone nuts, lack of any inclination for a respite at all. The global upshot is that resources get pressured and then the environment and before you know it your fervour has put you in a cul-de-sac of some sort - either resource pressure or pollution pressure.
Aircraft carriers .. maybe economies have a tendency to cycles like any other phenomenon - perhaps we're heading for war soon ? Unfortunately that would be the kind of creative destruction we've seen operating in history so far.
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Subject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond / Fri Dec 12, 2008 4:31 pm
Audi
I agree I often think we lose ourselves in our pursuit of wealth. Often if everyone is at it we make no real progress as the more we all earn the more that which we want increases in price. We end up back where we started if we are not careful. There is a lot to recommend living well within your means and enjoying life. The last year or so I have been living in the slow lane, but it just is not my nature. A walk in the park is pleasant, but I want to plan the herbaceous border myself and see how it turns out.
I was also wondering about the nature of government responses. It is very much top down. I am definitely not a socialist, but there has to be a workable bottom up approach.
If the problem was sub prime (I don't think it was, that is a convenient scapegoat in this fraud) then why not buy the houses and rent them back? It would have cost a lot less than this fiasco. Even to my way of thinking that way we would be helping those in most need, would own assets which could be sold at some future date, banks get their money etc. Why not do that and tighten up on abuse in the financial sector? Everyone gains. Too easy?
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Subject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond / Fri Dec 12, 2008 5:34 pm
Squire wrote:
Audi
I agree I often think we lose ourselves in our pursuit of wealth. Often if everyone is at it we make no real progress as the more we all earn the more that which we want increases in price. We end up back where we started if we are not careful. There is a lot to recommend living well within your means and enjoying life. The last year or so I have been living in the slow lane, but it just is not my nature. A walk in the park is pleasant, but I want to plan the herbaceous border myself and see how it turns out.
Well you're probably an engineer of some kind - people have difference thirsts for their different fields - we possibly miss the chance of expressing that during unemployment much more than money.
Quote :
I was also wondering about the nature of government responses. It is very much top down. I am definitely not a socialist, but there has to be a workable bottom up approach.
I think so too and have been banging on about it all the while. I'll be banging on about it with LisbonII again soon. It's not enough to allow parliamentarians 100% rein over state power - not anymore anyway. 'Workable' is the key word here though. I've a feeling we're not using evoting or computers enough.
Quote :
If the problem was sub prime (I don't think it was, that is a convenient scapegoat in this fraud) then why not buy the houses and rent them back? It would have cost a lot less than this fiasco. Even to my way of thinking that way we would be helping those in most need, would own assets which could be sold at some future date, banks get their money etc. Why not do that and tighten up on abuse in the financial sector? Everyone gains. Too easy?
It's outrageous to think that a few failed mortgages could cause such devastation but I'm inclined to think it was perhaps the end of the bubble anyway/ Now everyone many with a house-loan is basically in a prison of their own making so consumer spending is suffering. We burned everything together in one go. "The flame that burns twice as bright, burns half as long". I'm convinced the responsibility of government was to try to modulate for a slow burn over the past ten years, allowing a natural up-cycle to coincide with it. There are glaring responsibility defaults that government have to answer now - were sub-prime and 100% mortgages wise to allow to be issued ? Where was the Regulator all the time ? And as you've said earlier, is banking too big and demanding way too much attention ?
On top of that bubble was built some mighty superstructure of financial alchemy that is coming to to nought, it seems. This is the CDs markets and the hedge funds the German boy above was talking about. Apparently there is a huge banking audit in January where nasty stuff will turn up.
For those still unsure of the Fractional Reserve System have a look at the same German fella above showing what $10,000 can be turned into by the Financial Alchemists... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L9NXWsCWKCU
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Subject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond / Sat Dec 13, 2008 1:22 pm
There are some bloody neat graphs above there of the evaporation of gold and silver stocks. Silver is not too dear now .. wouldn't mind converting some Eurons into some element Ag
Name: Silver Symbol: Ag Atomic Number: 47 Atomic Mass: 107.8682 amu Melting Point: 961.93 °C (1235.08 K, 1763.474 °F) Boiling Point: 2212.0 °C (2485.15 K, 4013.6 °F) Number of Protons/Electrons: 47 Number of Neutrons: 61 Classification: Transition Metal Crystal Structure: Cubic Density @ 293 K: 10.5 g/cm3 Color: silver
Subject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond / Sat Dec 13, 2008 3:09 pm
Eddie Hobbs was on the Late Late Show last night saying how after Christmas - especially during January and Februrary loads of Irish businesses were going to go to the wall - that we were going to witness a dire fall into further economic woes. He looked worried - downright frightened, I thought. How Pat Kenny had the nerve to sit there comiserating about it on that obscene, publicly funded salary...
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Subject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond / Sat Dec 13, 2008 3:11 pm
Yup he is absolutely right. I was going to start a thread on it the day after Christmas just to give us a seasonal cheer but you got in ahead of me. There an awful lot of businesses living in hope of a Christmas boost this quarter so that they can at least survive 2009, that is fact. It is not going to happen either. You have seen nothing of this economic crisis hit Ireland yet.
The Dad is a Chartered Accountant... it is a hectic time.
Last edited by johnfás on Sat Dec 13, 2008 3:15 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Subject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond / Sat Dec 13, 2008 3:13 pm
Anyone hear Hobbs on the radio last week discussing public sector pay. First decent (albeit unworkable) suggestion I've ever heard out of the guy - tax the value added benefit of public sector pensions as a benefit in kind. He reckoned it would bring in over €2 billion.
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Subject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond / Sat Dec 13, 2008 3:29 pm
johnfás wrote:
Anyone hear Hobbs on the radio last week discussing public sector pay. First decent (albeit unworkable) suggestion I've ever heard out of the guy - tax the value added benefit of public sector pensions as a benefit in kind. He reckoned it would bring in over €2 billion.
Jobs and services should be prioritised over the excessive wages of public sector management, I agree, but first lets hear about some radical cropping of the wages, pensions and perks of the political class, and the individuals who have made superprofits in the last five years.
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Subject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond / Sat Dec 13, 2008 3:34 pm
cactus flower wrote:
johnfás wrote:
Anyone hear Hobbs on the radio last week discussing public sector pay. First decent (albeit unworkable) suggestion I've ever heard out of the guy - tax the value added benefit of public sector pensions as a benefit in kind. He reckoned it would bring in over €2 billion.
Jobs and services should be prioritised over the excessive wages of public sector management, I agree, but first lets hear about some radical cropping of the wages, pensions and perks of the political class, and the individuals who have made superprofits in the last five years.
The nature of a benefit in kind is that it is taxed at the marginal rate. Consequently higher earners on public sector pensions would pay a much greater tax for the benefit in kind of that pension than lower earners within the sector.
Reason I think it would be incredibly difficult is 1) Resistence from the sector 2) How you benchmark the benefit in kind as against private sector pensions which are far more diverse in nature. Would be a minefield.
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