Subject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond / Mon Jan 19, 2009 12:42 am
Half million euro mansions? You couldn't get a starter 3 bedroom semi in most areas of dublin for half a million 18 months ago.
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Subject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond / Mon Jan 19, 2009 1:47 am
johnfás wrote:
Half million euro mansions? You couldn't get a starter 3 bedroom semi in most areas of dublin for half a million 18 months ago.
It's very different now, isn't it. 'Down the country' you'd get a ranch one time for half a million, you understand, but now (well, ~two years ago) you'll get an oversized yoke in nice little estate. It'll cost you a million in the long run unless the ECB and other banks push the rate down to zero for the duration of your mortgage. Then, is there the job for life you need to sustain that lovely big momma of a house you bought so you could move away from (really 'piss off') the old neighbours and maybe impress the friends and family along the way ?
Ah let them fry now. There could be strange 'class' problems out of this if some people have their mortgages Freddie and Fannied; others worked harder for less and won't be bailed out. There could be an awful lot of bitterness, hatred and bile yet coming out of all this.
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Subject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond / Mon Jan 19, 2009 2:52 am
johnfás wrote:
Half million euro mansions? You couldn't get a starter 3 bedroom semi in most areas of dublin for half a million 18 months ago.
Auditor #9 wrote:
It's very different now, isn't it. 'Down the country' you'd get a ranch one time for half a million, you understand, but now (well, ~two years ago) you'll get an oversized yoke in nice little estate. It'll cost you a million in the long run unless the ECB and other banks push the rate down to zero for the duration of your mortgage. Then, is there the job for life you need to sustain that lovely big momma of a house you bought so you could move away from (really 'piss off') the old neighbours and maybe impress the friends and family along the way ?
Ah let them fry now. There could be strange 'class' problems out of this if some people have their mortgages Freddie and Fannied; others worked harder for less and won't be bailed out. There could be an awful lot of bitterness, hatred and bile yet coming out of all this.
Already there is, look at the Sindo, drumming up lynch mobs to string up the public sector workers, IBEC, primary school teachers who become Government Ministers, any one who isn't a Sindo journalist basically. The public sector workers might have been a bit smug, but mostly they didn't even ask for the money, it was pushed down their throats by Government just to make sure of their votes.
Where did it all come from? An awful lot of funny money came into the country in the last two or three years, and/or was invented by the Banks. The place was awash with it. The Banks were even stopped from using it as a fund in case of bad loans.
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Subject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond / Mon Jan 19, 2009 3:05 am
There is responsibilities on both sides, cactus. Last week George Lee was making the analogy of the people of Ireland living as if we were all at the roulette table of a casino. The Unions, that is the elected representatives of teachers etc, were at it just as much as the Government were.
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Subject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond / Mon Jan 19, 2009 3:21 am
johnfás wrote:
There is responsibilities on both sides, cactus. Last week George Lee was making the analogy of the people of Ireland living as if we were all at the roulette table of a casino. The Unions, that is the elected representatives of teachers etc, were at it just as much as the Government were.
Yes and the doctors too. Our consultants get paid twice what a Germand doctor would get. Average ESB wages are more than 70,000 p.a. and they were just paid an increase. All heads were in the trough, that's true, but the problem was that the trough appeared to be full. If the supply of money had been tighter, we would have got deflation sooner, but without the horrendous indebtedness.
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Subject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond / Mon Jan 19, 2009 3:49 am
Absolutely. However, I still don't believe that people have fully woken up to the idea that they have bought a bad product. I disagree with the idea that the entire blame lies with the Government or the proverbial "they" for selling this product to people. The people bought into it as much as they were sold it.
As I have said before I have sympathy all around here for 80% of society who were merely hopping on the bandwagon and being led up the garden path. However, I have greatest sympathy for the savers in our society. These were the prudent people who followed the advice of Government to take out a pension, to invest and to save for their future. Many of these people have been the hardest hit and it is on the back of their savings and investments that the property cowboys made their dosh and indeed the average splurger bought their unafforable car and hot tub. They're also the people least likely to get a bailout.
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Subject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond / Mon Jan 19, 2009 4:10 am
johnfás wrote:
Absolutely. However, I still don't believe that people have fully woken up to the idea that they have bought a bad product. I disagree with the idea that the entire blame lies with the Government or the proverbial "they" for selling this product to people. The people bought into it as much as they were sold it.
As I have said before I have sympathy all around here for 80% of society who were merely hopping on the bandwagon and being led up the garden path. However, I have greatest sympathy for the savers in our society. These were the prudent people who followed the advice of Government to take out a pension, to invest and to save for their future. Many of these people have been the hardest hit and it is on the back of their savings and investments that the property cowboys made their dosh and indeed the average splurger bought their unafforable car and hot tub. They're also the people least likely to get a bailout.
I'm thinking of this more and more now and how unjust it seems. I'm also thinking of that bit of the Bible which states that it is not good to bury your Dinars but to put them work and turn them into other stuff...
What about the people who had nothing before during and won't have anything after this nonsense ? They are accounted for in the Bible too - Blessed are the people who have shag all, Theirs will be the Kingdom after the other two groups nuke each other.
I'm telling you there will be hatred and twisted bitterness as well as resentment and that will be just the bit coming from me. There will also be bloodshed and burnings [mod]No incitement to violence or potentially incriminating yourself please [/mod]
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Subject: California suspending welfare, public payments, bonds and about to start issuing own currency Mon Jan 19, 2009 10:48 am
California may be about to pop. It will begin suspending the payments listed below in February in some attempt at closing a $42 billion deficit ...
It will begin issuing "IOUs" to pay its bills - something it did before in 1992. California is a wildly profligate state according to the blogger, The American Thinker who says, though welfare recipients and students will get hammered, prison officers receive annual salaries of over 100k.
Expect tent cities, looting, riots if this isn't addressed by Terminator Schwarzenegger.
Quote :
California controller to suspend tax refunds, welfare checks, student grants
John Chiang announces that his office will suspend $3.7 billion in payments owed to Californians starting Feb. 1, because with no budget in place the state lacks sufficient cash to pay its bills.
By Evan Halper and Patrick McGreevy. January 17, 2009
Sacramento -- The state will suspend tax refunds, welfare checks, student grants and other payments owed to Californians starting Feb. 1, Controller John Chiang announced Friday.
Chiang said he had no choice but to stop making some $3.7 billion in payments in the absence of action by the governor and lawmakers to close the state's nearly $42-billion budget deficit. More than half of those payments are tax refunds.
The controller said the suspended payments could be rolled into IOUs if California still lacks sufficient cash to pay its bills come March or April.
"It pains me to pull this trigger," Chiang said at a news conference in his office. "But it is an action that is critically necessary."
The payments to be frozen include nearly $2 billion in tax refunds; $300 million in cash grants for needy families and the elderly, blind and disabled; and $13 million in grants for college students.
Even if a budget agreement is reached by the end of this month, tax refunds and other payments could remain temporarily frozen. Chiang said a budget deal may not generate cash quickly enough to resume them immediately.
Not all payments will stop Feb. 1. Most school and healthcare programs will be paid, as required by state and federal law. The state will continue to pay more than $6.6 billion in such bills.
And Los Angeles County officials said they would cover welfare payments to more than 500,000 local recipients -- for now.
But California is projected to be $346 million short of the funds it needs to pay all its bills in February. By March, the state would be so far in the red that even continuing to suspend payments would not cover the shortfall. California would be insolvent, making the issuance of IOUs likely.
State officials have already designed an IOU template, Chiang said, and have been negotiating with banks over whether taxpayers could cash or deposit them if they are issued. The state could be forced to pay as much as 5% interest on delayed tax refunds if they are not paid by the end of May, Chiang said.
The last time the state issued such IOUs -- the only time since the Great Depression -- was in 1992.
The suspension of payments is the latest radical move by officials to help keep the state from running out of cash as Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and the Legislature battle over how to avoid insolvency.
Schwarzenegger, who hopes to speed up public-works projects to stimulate the economy, wants tax increases, spending cuts and legislation to relax some environmental rules and allow private companies to do some government construction.
Democrats are seeking tax increases as well, but fewer spending cuts. Republican lawmakers would only pare spending and have been blocking any tax hikes.
Meanwhile, Schwarzenegger has ordered that most state workers take two days off per month without pay -- equivalent to about a 10% pay cut. The governor also ordered most state offices -- including all DMV field offices -- to close on those two days. The order is being challenged in court by labor unions.
The state has also halted payments of bond money for more than 5,300 public-works projects.
On Friday, the state Department of Finance temporarily exempted 276 of the projects from the freeze, reasoning that because they are nearly complete, it could cost the state more to shut them down than to finish them.
The exemption, through Feb. 1, will allow the continuation of school construction by the Inglewood Unified School District and the construction of a new Court of Appeal facility in Santa Ana. Work on new rail tracks at L.A.'s Union Station and road projects involving Irwindale Avenue, Martin Luther King Boulevard and Imperial Highway in Los Angeles County will also be able to continue.
Some projects were exempted because the state is under court order to do the jobs. Others would threaten public safety if left uncompleted, according to Mike Genest, Schwarzenegger's finance director.
"We're going to take the risk of allowing them to continue a little longer because we are very hopeful will have a budget by Feb. 1," Genest said.
Meanwhile in other news, Bank of America will get 118 billion bailout
Quote :
Bank of America bail-out agreed
Bank of America will receive $20bn (£13.4bn) in fresh US government aid and $118bn worth of guarantees against bad assets.
The emergency funding will help the troubled bank - the US's largest - absorb the losses it incurred when it bought Merrill Lynch.
In return for the money, the US Treasury will take a stake in the bank.
Just hours after the aid package was announced, Merrill Lynch posted a fourth-quarter 2008 loss of $15.31bn.
Bank of America reported a loss of $1.7bn, compared with a profit of $268m for the same period a year earlier.
Bank of America had been seen as one of the strongest US banks, at least until its decision to take over Merrill.
"They were probably one of the best banks out there, balance sheet-wise, until they did the Merrill deal," said Cassandra Toroian at Bell Rock Capital.
Subject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond / Mon Jan 19, 2009 1:58 pm
Members videos - elainec - recording of 2 min. newsreport on the subject of the UK 'bank guarantee' as eoinmn has called it, accurately perhaps. No doubt they are still reeling at the memory of Northern Rock customers queueing outside the institution at one stage.
Subject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond / Mon Jan 19, 2009 4:21 pm
Trust me, the UK banks are even more screwed than ours. If that is actually possible. I see a lot of lined up dominos over there. The difference between them and us right now is merely that so far, the markets cannot imagine a big economy going splat, whereas they seem to have no problems imagining small countries running into trouble.
That may change. The UK is planning to run a 9.1% deficit this year, on top of a government debt that is probably 100% GDP including PFI. The Observer seems to think Euro membership may be looming
Watch this space.....
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Subject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond / Mon Jan 19, 2009 5:32 pm
'Rigging the rules of democracy to favour the moneybags'
Michael Parenti on top form and putting it all in a nutshell
Subject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond / Tue Jan 20, 2009 12:10 am
Speaking of 'Rigging the rules of democracy to favour the moneybags'.
That authoritarian neoliberal Marc Coleman (Newstalk's/O'Brien's in house economist) was on Lunchtime with Eamon Keane recommending that we should get rid of the PR voting system here!
It's a perfect example of shock therapy and the constriction of democracy.
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Subject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond / Tue Jan 20, 2009 12:46 am
Pax wrote:
Speaking of 'Rigging the rules of democracy to favour the moneybags'.
That authoritarian neoliberal Marc Coleman (Newstalk's/O'Brien's in house economist) was on Lunchtime with Eamon Keane recommending that we should get rid of the PR voting system here!
It's a perfect example of shock therapy and the constriction of democracy.
There's plenty of that about - sell this off, sell that off...
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Subject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond / Wed Jan 21, 2009 4:08 am
Quote :
Singapore Economy May Post Biggest Decline on Record Jan. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Singapore’s economy may suffer its worst annual contraction on record this year amid a slump in exports, increasing pressure on the government to take steps to help businesses and consumers.
Gross domestic product may shrink as much as 5 percent this year, the trade ministry said today, cutting its forecast for the second time in less than three weeks. It predicted a contraction of as much as 2 percent on Jan. 2. The economy grew 1.2 percent last year, less than earlier estimated.
Singapore will unveil this year’s budget plan tomorrow, as it attempts to speed up aid to companies hurt by the global recession and minimize job cuts. More than 10,000 people were retrenched last year and a worsening economy may result in job losses tripling in 2009, reaching numbers not seen since the Asian financial crisis a decade ago, the government said.
“All the government can do is to ensure that citizens and businesses cope with the recession because it’s not possible to counteract the drop in external demand,” said Chow Penn Nee, an economist at United Overseas Bank Ltd. in Singapore. “The situation may start to improve only in the fourth quarter” of 2009.
Be interesting to see how a small, expensive well-run city state with almost a command economy will fare as the winds blow around it .
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Subject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond / Wed Jan 21, 2009 5:22 pm
UK Banking Bill currently passing through Parliament ...
Quote :
The Government is set to throw out the 165-year old law that obliges the Bank to publish a weekly account of its balance sheet – a move that will allow it theoretically to embark covertly on so-called quantitative easing. The Banking Bill, which is currently passing through Parliament, abolishes a key section of the law laid down by Robert Peel's Government in 1844 which originally granted the Bank the sole right to print UK money.
The ostensible reason for the reform, which means the Bank will not have to print details of its own accounts and the amount of notes and coins flowing through the UK economy, is to allow the Bank more power to overhaul troubled financial institutions in the future, under its Special Resolution Authority.
However, some have warned that it means: "there is nothing to stop an unreported and unmonitored flooding of the money market by the undisciplined use of the printing presses."
Subject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond / Wed Jan 21, 2009 5:34 pm
here we go. I wonder what happens to both their economy and ours when there are 2 pounds to every euro
If in doubt, the default reaction of the UK parliament to any problem is to shove the problem under the carpet. New Labour and its spinmachine have made this problem 10 times worse. Whistle blowers are few and far between. The great jewel in the UK crown, however, is the quality press (and I should give the Channel 4 news an honourable mention; they took up the baton when the Beeb got done over Andrew Gilligan and bottled out) I don't think the Observer, Torygraph, Independent, Private Eye etc are about to let them away with this
Let the fun begin!
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Subject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond / Wed Jan 21, 2009 6:33 pm
expat girl wrote:
here we go. I wonder what happens to both their economy and ours when there are 2 pounds to every euro
If in doubt, the default reaction of the UK parliament to any problem is to shove the problem under the carpet. New Labour and its spinmachine have made this problem 10 times worse. Whistle blowers are few and far between. The great jewel in the UK crown, however, is the quality press (and I should give the Channel 4 news an honourable mention; they took up the baton when the Beeb got done over Andrew Gilligan and bottled out) I don't think the Observer, Torygraph, Independent, Private Eye etc are about to let them away with this
Let the fun begin!
Uncertainty has been the very devil in all this. Surely the idea that no one knows if youré printing money or not, would leave everyone having to assume the worst ( a bit like our banks, really)?
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Subject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond / Wed Jan 21, 2009 7:26 pm
Yuurp Cactus, ya just hit the nail on the head. Markets are very, very good at assuming the worst at the moment. However, in the case of the UK, this is countered by an inability to get the head around the idea that the fifth or sixth largest economy in the world could go splat. We shall see which strand of thought looms uppermost in the heads of the panicked traders.... fuelled by that wonderful free press
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Subject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond / Wed Jan 21, 2009 8:45 pm
This is typical of NEW Labour. They love pointless misleading statistics, lots and lots of them, and hiding the truth. Mind you the Conservatives are unlikely to be much better. See they have now dragged back Mr. Hush Puppy and cords. Ken is an entertaining fellow.
Anyone with any sense is out of Sterling, but saying that 'they are bad' does not relieve the problems in Ireland and it would not benifit Ireland at all if the UK economy totally failed. Equally it is not in the interest of the UK to see Ireland fail. There is no logic in any of that and I don't think it is even a vague consideration.
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Subject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond / Wed Jan 21, 2009 8:49 pm
It would suit me for hmmm about one week if sterling went to that level as I'm considering a year of study over there which will set me back alot of thousands in sterling .
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Subject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond / Thu Jan 22, 2009 12:30 pm
German 50 billion spending package worth 2% of GDP which will be spread over two years. It will comprise of investment subsidies and tax relief measures spread over two years. Members of the Coalition Government were happy that they could hammer out a deal - the biggest since WWII - as there was a lot of bickering during the process.
24 billion will be spent on infrastructure like schools 2 billion for car industry lower state health care contributions tax rate for low earners cut from 15% to 14% credit guarantees for businesses
Critics worried that it will boost the German Economy next year when it will be hit hardest - a bit too late ?
Also that it will do nothing to boost falling German exports .. (but this should pick up after the recession elsewhere lifts)
All in all they agree that this package could take Germany through it where they will emerge stronger on the other side. Could be an action by a well-managed economy that would make Keynes dance in his grave.
Subject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond / Fri Jan 23, 2009 12:28 am
Squire wrote:
This is typical of NEW Labour. They love pointless misleading statistics, lots and lots of them, and hiding the truth. Mind you the Conservatives are unlikely to be much better. See they have now dragged back Mr. Hush Puppy and cords. Ken is an entertaining fellow.
Anyone with any sense is out of Sterling, but saying that 'they are bad' does not relieve the problems in Ireland and it would not benifit Ireland at all if the UK economy totally failed. Equally it is not in the interest of the UK to see Ireland fail. There is no logic in any of that and I don't think it is even a vague consideration.
I totally agree. I'm just very worried about the UK.... more specifically the family I have over there. It's been in a financial mess since the war started really. Doesn't show up in the official stats, but if you live there, it is obvious in the unfilled potholes and vast queues at the GPs. New Labour are wasters and cynical spinners, not that the previous administration were any better. What annoys me so much is with the human capital and natural resources they have, they could be so much better. But the Establishment prefers things to operate for the benefit of an elite, and is addicted to free market fundamentalism..... so there we have it. Oh and there's the wars.
We REALLY don't need them to fail; and we certainly don't need Sterling to slump any further. My worry is that they will crash, and bring what remains of us down with them. I suspect they are closer to the edge than we are.
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Subject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond / Fri Jan 23, 2009 2:23 am
The general talk is that the British banks are pretty well all insolvent, as are the US banks.
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Subject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond / Fri Jan 23, 2009 9:04 am
This is the best guide to the chaos in financial markets I have seen. Brilliantly illuminating!
Subject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond / Fri Jan 23, 2009 12:41 pm
cactus flower wrote:
The general talk is that the British banks are pretty well all insolvent, as are the US banks.
yurrp. Newsnight last night... RBS alone had lent out 1.7trn, more than UK GDP. The interviewer gave Lenihan a real grilling... they did a feature on Ireland rather than grilling their own politicians... I posted some of the detail on the Nationalisation watch thread.
In the cold light of morning, I am not distressed so much by the hard time she gave Lenihan.... many of the posters on this site would have asked the same questions. He did an adequate job of self defence, anyway
What distresses me is the easy ride they gave their own politicians.
I'd have loved it if they'd asked Gordon Brown about 1) the fact that the PFI debt aint on the official Govt debt figures, and would double them. 2) how are they going to pay for their banks if RBS alone has a balance sheet larger than the nation 3) why, in this climate of general insolvency, are they going ahead and building 70 Billion OF NEW NUCLEAR WEAPONS?? Especially since these can't be operated without permission and knowhow from the US, so they don't count as a truly independent "deterrent" anyway?? 4) Given the huge declared and undeclared public debt, the wars and the nukes and aircraft carriers to pay for, how EXACTLY are the trillion dollar debts to be paid off in the future??
But the Beeb don't dare ask their Government any awkward questions at all, since they were emasculated after the Gilligan affair. They simply change the focus by pointing at other nations that also have economic problems; look at them, they're worse than us... well, actually, I doubt that.
She gave Lenihan a hard time over the public sector pay cuts, but has failed to mention that the public service in the UK have been intermittently striking for years, because they got 2% pay rises during the boom when the real cost of living was rising by 5%. And their salaries have been further devalued by the slump in sterling
The British public have some serious protesting to do. Sadly, unlike us, they've had the good times for longer. My husband and colleagues were out on strike a few times while we lived there; many of the 20-25 year old age group didn't even know what a picket line was.
Children of Thatcher, the chickens are coming home to roost.
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Subject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond /
The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond /