I recall adults talking along these lines when I was young - that the world economy would go belly up if some magical technological bullets such as 'free energy' were discovered.

It might not take the discovery of free energy but only an augmentation in our efficiencies before the whole shebang would need to be changed. Take our Air Car for example - it has fewer moving parts and requires a lot less maintenance putting mechanics out of business overnight not to mention two-thirds of the people involved in the production process itself...

Could there be a secret cabal out there co-ordinating things so that the whole thing doesn't go belly-up because of simple technological improvements?

Eh, Auditor #9? Why is this in Political Theory, Fringe Movements, Radical Politics? Your discussion relates to economics, not politics.

The world economy would not collapse of course but the economy of BP and Magic Arse would certainly be hard hit.

I recall a similar thread on p.ie like this. I'm nearly sure I made some interesting comments on it but can't for the life of me remember what they were.

So ist das Leben!

Thanks for the move, but the world economy wouldn't collapse. The energy sector would un-doubtedly decline in importance but sectors such as manufacturing would in fact be strengthened by free energy since it would cost less to prouduce each unit. That would mean that they could produce and therefore sell more units.

Don't just think of it as energy but the whole production process improved by new design which eliminates employees, obviates labour and bypasses professionals... the Air Car could do something like this to the Automobile industry (you have to use Amurican terminology now we're here in Dallas...) because the car is now half as complex as its conventional counterparts.. Similarly with free or very cheap energy - any magic bullet would leave millions unemployed in a matter of years..

Are there not forces out there trying to prevent this happening?

Not that i'd be worried if unemployment was compulsory in the morning - the first thing I'd do is run naked through all the factories I worked in all my short life...

New technology has been coming for centuries now which renders some employment irrelevant or obsolete. But overall employment is much higher, isn't it? Labour force participation rates are at all-time highs across the Western World as a result of womern joining the labour force. These new technologies require servicing, require sales-people to sell them and hauliers to transport them. There may be some destruction, but it will be creative destruction. That is the beauty of capitalism.

The first minute and a half of this video explains a lot more than half the economics books in Hodgis and Figgis

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=krcNIWPkNzA

It says the video is no longer available. Is it Trek? What's it about?

Ard-Taoiseach wrote:

It says the video is no longer available. Is it Trek? What's it about?

Try it again it just worked for me ..

I dont think the world economy would collapse for a number of reasons

while a Eureka break-thru on a clean renewable and limitless energy source would possibly cause on serious run on the spirits mini-bars in Riyadh and Teheran, and might provoke a degree of revisionism in government financial planning circles in Moscow,Caracas and several african capitals - the fact of the matter is that it would take decades to integrate this new technoloyy into the World economy.

Our Oil and fossil-fueled economy is not just about fuel for electricity generation and transportation - it goes far far deeper than all that.

It deals with the danger of loosing ones cherry. Which brings me to the act of copulation commited daily on car owners. What would Magic Arse do with the petrol tax gone

Edo wrote:

the fact of the matter is that it would take decades to integrate this new technoloyy into the World economy.

Even still, the futures market in oil and gas would crash straight away. Oil and gas consumption is increasing and supply is limited, were the consumption of oil and gas for all but a few purposes (plastics, fertalisers etc) to be replaced in a number of years the price of oil and gas would drop dramatically.

The economies of some of the world's biggest producers who's access to vast amounts of capital which is invested in other economies around the world would also collapse and that would have a knock on effect.

The free energy is just a symbol for extremely efficient production processes that would jeopardise world economics. For example another thing might be computers or home technology which only require voice
instruction or even fix themselves once connected to the net (Bill Gates' idea not mine)

Such things would obviate engineers and other professionals. Do you think there might be a concerted effort to keep the status quo as it is ? And only allow technology to appear slowly over the time you are saying Edo?

Ard-Taoiseach wrote:

Thanks for the move, but the world economy wouldn't collapse. The energy sector would un-doubtedly decline in importance but sectors such as manufacturing would in fact be strengthened by free energy since it would cost less to prouduce each unit. That would mean that they could produce and therefore sell more units.

Just look at Kodak and the digital camera.
There have been plenty of industries that have gone belly up historically.
There are I suppose massive vested interests in oil. Also, I don't think it is as easy to replace as we would like. After all it took millions of years to produce it.
The new factor is the urgent need to mind this planet. This appears on the face of it even more important than the functioning of the market.

Auditor #9 wrote:

The free energy is just a symbol for extremely efficient production processes that would jeopardise world economics. For example another thing might be computers or home technology which only require voice
instruction or even fix themselves once connected to the net (Bill Gates' idea not mine)

Such things would obviate engineers and other professionals. Do you think there might be a concerted effort to keep the status quo as it is ? And only allow technology to appear slowly over the time you are saying Edo?

Thats a fair point Auditor - is there a conspiracy of sorts in place to keep new technology from emerging into the marketplace ala Ben Eltons "Gridlock" or the like?

Well - (Edo in classic liberal mode) - yes and no!

From my perch in the semi-conductor industry - I will make the following observations and you can make of them what you will.

To paraphrase The late Ron Greenwood - former West Ham and England Football manager - "Football is a simple game - the problem is making it look simple"

New technology and break-thrus are being made all the time in Labs across the world. Its the process of taking that new breakthrough from the lab into the wider sphere is always the biggest barrier or hurdle to be overcome.

I know that the company I work for has over 100 patents filed for new processes and solutions to do with semi-conductor technology and the processing of such techology - some of these patents have reached the light of day and are being used in manufacturing processes - some are still sitting on the shelf , interesting curiosities that we demonstrate to wow vistors - but as of yet , for a combination of reasons, some of which can be as simple as nobody has of yet picked up on how to integrate this piece of human know-how into something else and allied with other bits of new techology into a commerically viable and saleable product or commodity.

Considering the breaktaking pace at which our technology has advanced and is accelerating at (when you take a long view) - I dont think that there is any conspiracy that has placed these magic breakthroughs if they exist -into a vault underneath some North American mountain ala Roswell or Area 51 etc etc - a lot of disoveries just remain on ice until the rest of the jigsaw puzzle falls into place - in a capitalist world - there are no prizes for discovering something and having full knowlegde of its capabilites and being in a position to move immediately on it and then leaving it in cold storage until you are happy that you have exhausted the commerical possibilities of your existing technology that will become obsolete with the arrival of this new technology. Its simply too risky that somebody else will hit upon the same thing and get to the market place first. I think its fecking hillarious the number of confidentiality clauses I have to sign up to every year -a) because Im an Arts grad who specialises in getting shipments from A to B (I wouldn't know an electron from a proton if both of them bit me in the nose) but primarily becuase the semi-conductor science world is a small one and in this day and age nobody develops technology in complete isolation from the rest - the benifits of doing so are far outweighted by the risks of doing so and mssing out on somebody else who make look at what you have done from a completely different angle and suggest the missing link to what you are looking for - ie The personal computer was discovered in Xerox's Palo Alto Labs - they didnt see any commericial viablity in it - but a certain Steve Jobs did and the rest is history.



How many of you guys and gals watch Discovery channel - especially that brilliant programme - "how its made"

I know a lot of people go -" wow thats very simple in the end - they have machine that does that and there it is" - I just go - wow and get a pained expression on my face trying to add up all the manhours and planning and process making and development that went into making something operate so effectively and simply - the more outwardly simplified,consumer friendly and operator friendly something becomes - the more specialised and skilled engineers are required to keep it running - if its made by a human - it will break down -and will have to be repaired or reprogrammed by a human - thats the reason we are where we are - and are no longer just trying to avoid being a leopards lunch on the African Plains.

There is a concerted idea to preserve the status quo as an entire layer or parasites derive their livelihood from it. There was a great book written by William Rees-Mogg and James Davidson from about 1993 call The Sovereign Individual. I highly recommend it. It predicts nicely a lot that has developed since. It lays out the scenario where each person will be truely there own master and the power of the state will decrease. They predicted the push to form the EU superstate to save the buerocracy class before the member states themselves fragmented into smaller mini states. I have written that I believe that Ireland is well on the way to becoming a failed nation state where gangs are becoming more powerfull than the government. Elsewhere I saw a headline where the drinking age was to be raised to 21. How a politician can be thinking like this when 10 year olds rule Finglas just shows how clueless they are.

Edo wrote:

I know that the company I work for has over 100 patents filed for new processes and solutions to do with semi-conductor technology and the processing of such techology - some of these patents
have reached the light of day and are being used in manufacturing processes - some are still sitting on the shelf , interesting curiosities that we demonstrate to wow vistors - but as of yet , for a
combination of reasons, some of which can be as simple as nobody has of yet picked up on how to integrate this piece of human know-how into something else and allied with other bits of new techology into a commerically viable and saleable product or commodity.

Yeah, i've often tried to figure out how a company would release a product gradually (like a new mobile phone) without killing it's own golden goose by laying the best golden egg. Technology has to bleed into the market gradually or one magic bullet hand-held would wipe out entire markets.. But as you say above, certain technologies are contingent on others as well as on infrastructure and the readiness of the markets... A very simple techie question for anyone: why isn't there a direct USB connection to most mobile phones? I mean, I'd like to be able to stick a memory stick straight into my phone? Maybe advanced models currently have this but I haven't shopped for them yet.

Edo wrote:

Its
simply too risky that somebody else will hit upon the same thing and get to the market place first. I think its fecking hillarious the number of confidentiality clauses I have to sign up to every year -a)
because Im an Arts grad who specialises in getting shipments from A to B (I wouldn't know an electron from a proton if both of them bit me in the nose) but primarily becuase the semi-conductor science world is a small one and in this day and age nobody develops technology in complete isolation from the rest - the benifits of doing so are far outweighted by the risks of doing so and mssing out on somebody else
who make look at what you have done from a completely different angle and suggest the missing link to what you are looking for - ie The personal computer was discovered in Xerox's Palo Alto Labs - they didnt see any commericial viablity in it - but a certain Steve Jobs did and the rest is history.

Interesting as to what happens behind the curtains in some industries - they probably inter-co-ordinate business more than we think although a look at Apple/Microsoft would say no.

Edo wrote:

How many of you guys and gals watch Discovery channel - especially that brilliant programme - "how its made"

I know a lot of people go -" wow thats very simple in the end - they have machine that does that and there it is" - I just go - wow and get a pained expression on my face trying to add up all the manhours and planning and process making and development that went into making something operate so effectively and simply - the more outwardly simplified,consumer friendly and operator friendly something becomes - the more specialised and skilled engineers are required to keep it running - if its made by a human - it will break down -and will have to be repaired or reprogrammed by a human - thats the reason we are where we are - and are no longer just trying to avoid being a leopards lunch on the African Plains.

A lot of software production is done freely though ... thank jesus

youngdan wrote:

There is a concerted idea to preserve the status quo as an entire layer or parasites derive their livelihood from it. There was a great book written by William Rees-Mogg and James Davidson from about 1993 call The Sovereign Individual. I highly recommend it. It predicts nicely a lot that has developed since. It lays out the scenario where each person will be truely there own master and the power of the state will decrease. They predicted the push to form the EU superstate to save the buerocracy class before the member states themselves fragmented into smaller mini states. I have written that I believe that Ireland is well on the way to becoming a failed nation state where gangs are becoming more powerfull than the government. Elsewhere I saw a headline where the drinking age was to be raised to 21. How a politician can be thinking like this when 10 year olds rule Finglas just shows how clueless they are.

I'll have a look out for these books ye are mentioning lads..

Edo wrote:

Auditor #9 wrote:

The free energy is just a symbol for extremely efficient production processes that would jeopardise world economics. For example another thing might be computers or home technology which only require voice
instruction or even fix themselves once connected to the net (Bill Gates' idea not mine)

Such things would obviate engineers and other professionals. Do you think there might be a concerted effort to keep the status quo as it is ? And only allow technology to appear slowly over the time you are saying Edo?

Thats a fair point Auditor - is there a conspiracy of sorts in place to keep new technology from emerging into the marketplace ala Ben Eltons "Gridlock" or the like?

Well - (Edo in classic liberal mode) - yes and no!

From my perch in the semi-conductor industry - I will make the following observations and you can make of them what you will.

To paraphrase The late Ron Greenwood - former West Ham and England Football manager - "Football is a simple game - the problem is making it look simple"

New technology and break-thrus are being made all the time in Labs across the world. Its the process of taking that new breakthrough from the lab into the wider sphere is always the biggest barrier or hurdle to be overcome.

I know that the company I work for has over 100 patents filed for new processes and solutions to do with semi-conductor technology and the processing of such techology - some of these patents have reached the light of day and are being used in manufacturing processes - some are still sitting on the shelf , interesting curiosities that we demonstrate to wow vistors - but as of yet , for a combination of reasons, some of which can be as simple as nobody has of yet picked up on how to integrate this piece of human know-how into something else and allied with other bits of new techology into a commerically viable and saleable product or commodity.

Considering the breaktaking pace at which our technology has advanced and is accelerating at (when you take a long view) - I dont think that there is any conspiracy that has placed these magic breakthroughs if they exist -into a vault underneath some North American mountain ala Roswell or Area 51 etc etc - a lot of disoveries just remain on ice until the rest of the jigsaw puzzle falls into place - in a capitalist world - there are no prizes for discovering something and having full knowlegde of its capabilites and being in a position to move immediately on it and then leaving it in cold storage until you are happy that you have exhausted the commerical possibilities of your existing technology that will become obsolete with the arrival of this new technology. Its simply too risky that somebody else will hit upon the same thing and get to the market place first. I think its fecking hillarious the number of confidentiality clauses I have to sign up to every year -a) because Im an Arts grad who specialises in getting shipments from A to B (I wouldn't know an electron from a proton if both of them bit me in the nose) but primarily becuase the semi-conductor science world is a small one and in this day and age nobody develops technology in complete isolation from the rest - the benifits of doing so are far outweighted by the risks of doing so and mssing out on somebody else who make look at what you have done from a completely different angle and suggest the missing link to what you are looking for - ie The personal computer was discovered in Xerox's Palo Alto Labs - they didnt see any commericial viablity in it - but a certain Steve Jobs did and the rest is history.



How many of you guys and gals watch Discovery channel - especially that brilliant programme - "how its made"

I know a lot of people go -" wow thats very simple in the end - they have machine that does that and there it is" - I just go - wow and get a pained expression on my face trying to add up all the manhours and planning and process making and development that went into making something operate so effectively and simply - the more outwardly simplified,consumer friendly and operator friendly something becomes - the more specialised and skilled engineers are required to keep it running - if its made by a human - it will break down -and will have to be repaired or reprogrammed by a human - thats the reason we are where we are - and are no longer just trying to avoid being a leopards lunch on the African Plains.

Edo: were you involved in the "Open Science" forum on P.ie a little while ago? One of the blockages discussed was that the ideas/ research people, university based were underestimating the difficulties and costs of bringing an idea to the market place, and the unis were looking for non-viable percentages - ergo no deal no product. Any ideas how this might be done better?