Our precious Gulf Stream - is it stopping?

Its a lovely day in Alicante (although I'm at work testing some new kit) and I'm just reading about the cold snap which is effecting the east of the country. Without doubt this has got to be one of the coldest years ever. So much for Global Warming you would think.

But what about the effect of global warming on the Gulf Stream. The melting icecaps mean that cold water is the north west atlantic is now dilluting the power of the Gulf stream pump which has warm water on the surface and cold water flowing in the opposite direction in the deep.
Last month, in Schull west Cork the water was far colder than what I would normally expect. And its not just beacuse teh soft Med climate has made me soft. I heard it from parctically everyonethere as well.

Could it be that while global temperatures are going up, our own temperatures will be going down, especially in Winter? Will we become like New Foundland?

Perish the thought.

You're right about the cold. Today's Indo tells me that Tuesday was the coldest October day since 1948.

I have no idea what effect the loss of the gulf stream would be for Ireland. It must certainly mean colder winters.

EvotingMachine0197 wrote:

You're right about the cold. Today's Indo tells me that Tuesday was the coldest October day since 1948.

I have no idea what effect the loss of the gulf stream would be for Ireland. It must certainly mean colder winters.

Meteorologists have forecast 10 cold years, after which the long trend to a much warmer climate will kick in again.

If the gulf stream reversed, we would get the same weather as Newfoundland, I think - looking along the line of latitude. Ice and snow most of the year.

I read somewhere that although the climate will warm up in most parts of the globe from the equator region to the northern-most and southern-most extremes of the tropics, there will be wetter and colder extremes at either end of the world. Without the gulf stream our climate is expected to be wetter and colder, apparently.

Hey, look me up in Clonakilty next time you're going to Schull Repvblica! You're right about the water too - it has been freeeeeeeezing these last few years. As an annual sea-bather in this part of the world, it's unmistakable. Normally by mid-July the sea has warmed up to bearable temperatures but for 3 years now it has never stopped being bone-achingly cold to the end of August (usually the warmest sea month of them all).

Aragon wrote:

I read somewhere that although the climate will warm up in most parts of the globe from the equator region to the northern-most and southern-most extremes of the tropics, there will be wetter and colder extremes at either end of the world. Without the gulf stream our climate is expected to be wetter and colder, apparently.
Hey, look me up in Clonakilty next time you're going to Schull Repvblica! You're right about the water too - it has been freeeeeeeezing these last few years. As an annual sea-bather in this part of the world, it's unmistakable. Normally by mid-July the sea has warmed up to bearable temperatures but for 3 years now it has never stopped being bone-achingly cold to the end of August (usually the warmest sea month of them all).

Without the gulf stream, it would be freezing. I just looked it up in my atlas - no livestock at our latitude apart from the gulf stream zone - UK and ireland.
No intensive agriculture. The country would only support a fraction of the present population. You are looking at an area north of Newfoundland for the equivalent.

So no more spuds and Wicklow Lamb cutlets ?

EvotingMachine0197 wrote:

So no more spuds and Wicklow Lamb cutlets ?

Only if you thaw them out first

Gulf Stream is certainly cooling but that doesn't mean that it will be entirely extinguished, merely diluted. For that reason direct comparisons with areas such as Newfoundland are not particularly helpful as even if the Gulf Stream was heavily diluted you would not end up with the precise same climate, there are multiple factors at work. Beyond that, if you go way West of Newfoundland we are about the same latitude as Vancouver, which despite being a little chilly at times, has quite a similar climate to ourselves. It is all too simplistic to say that because the Gulf Stream is diluting we are going to end up with the same climate as another region of similar latitude.

cactus flower wrote:

Without the gulf stream, it would be freezing. I just looked it up in my atlas - no livestock at our latitude apart from the gulf stream zone - UK and ireland.
No intensive agriculture. The country would only support a fraction of the present population. You are looking at an area north of Newfoundland for the equivalent.

The Netherlands has an extensive agricultural sector, particularly dairy cattle.

johnfás wrote:

Gulf Stream is certainly cooling but that doesn't mean that it will be entirely extinguished, merely diluted. For that reason direct comparisons with areas such as Newfoundland are not particularly helpful as even if the Gulf Stream was heavily diluted you would not end up with the precise same climate, there are multiple factors at work. Beyond that, if you go way West of Newfoundland we are about the same latitude as Vancouver, which despite being a little chilly at times, has quite a similar climate to ourselves. It is all too simplistic to say that because the Gulf Stream is diluting we are going to end up with the same climate as another region of similar latitude.

That's Newfoundland, not the Netherlands.

There is some dispute as to the extent to which our climate is determined by the Gulf Stream, but thermohaline shutdown would have big affects, even though we can't be sure exactly what they would be. A few years back, this was considered a wild hypothesis. Now there are alarming indications that change has already taken place.

http://www.americanscientist.org/issues/feature/2006/4/the-source-of-europes-mild-climate

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shutdown_of_thermohaline_circulation

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2005/dec/01/science.climatechange

Chill out

It`ll be ok lads. Norway has been able to base a successful economy around natural resources such as oil and around fishing. We`ve similar types of resources. Thankfully we`ve had a succession of visionaries in government who`ve ensured protection for those reources in order to ensure the well-being of our citizens.

My point cactus, was that there is a substantial livestock sector in the Netherlands, which is at the same latitude, approximately, as Ireland.

johnfás wrote:

My point cactus, was that there is a substantial livestock sector in the Netherlands, which is at the same latitude, approximately, as Ireland.

The Netherlands is also affected by the gulf stream, johnfás. For that matter, so is is Newfoundland. You would need to look further north.

I've read that the Gulf stream is slipping south, and this is measured by the saltiness of the water.
What would worry me would be a current coming down from the arctic in its place. The folks in Vancouver seem to be protected by the fact that the north pacific is closed off before it reaches the north pole. I'm just surmising here but couldnt the the north sea become a real freeze zone, making places like Edinburgh essentially uninhabitable?


Aragon . you'd want to bathe more frequently while you still have the chance. If I'm around west Cork I'll let you know.

won't the coriolis effect not prevail and restore the gulf stream.

As I understand it, the Gulf stream won't shut down. It might alter its course, shifting either north or south. North means that we get Spain's climate (which I hate), south means that we get Norway's climate.

cactus flower wrote:

johnfás wrote:

My point cactus, was that there is a substantial livestock sector in the Netherlands, which is at the same latitude, approximately, as Ireland.

The Netherlands is also affected by the gulf stream, johnfás. For that matter, so is is Newfoundland. You would need to look further north.

Effects:

ibis wrote:

cactus flower wrote:

johnfás wrote:

My point cactus, was that there is a substantial livestock sector in the Netherlands, which is at the same latitude, approximately, as Ireland.

The Netherlands is also affected by the gulf stream, johnfás. For that matter, so is is Newfoundland. You would need to look further north.

Effects:

What is that supposed to be Ibis?

cactus flower wrote:

ibis wrote:

cactus flower wrote:

johnfás wrote:

My point cactus, was that there is a substantial livestock sector in the Netherlands, which is at the same latitude, approximately, as Ireland.

The Netherlands is also affected by the gulf stream, johnfás. For that matter, so is is Newfoundland. You would need to look further north.

Effects:

What is that supposed to be Ibis?

Oops - I though there was an overlay on that. Zonal Temperature Anomalies - in other words how much warmer (orange-red) or colder (blue) an area is relative to the expectation for that latitude.

Expectation based on what?

ibis wrote:

cactus flower wrote:

ibis wrote:

cactus flower wrote:

johnfás wrote:

My point cactus, was that there is a substantial livestock sector in the Netherlands, which is at the same latitude, approximately, as Ireland.

The Netherlands is also affected by the gulf stream, johnfás. For that matter, so is is Newfoundland. You would need to look further north.

Effects:

What is that supposed to be Ibis?

Oops - I though there was an overlay on that. Zonal Temperature Anomalies - in other words how much warmer (orange-red) or colder (blue) an area is relative to the expectation for that latitude.

So eastern Canada is pretty normal for our latitude?
Well if the Gulf stream lost the power to reach Norway I would expect it to be replaced by a current from somewhere else - and the only other place would be North Pole.
We might be able to get away with a few degrees drop, especially in southern Ireland and Britain, but I would say Scandanavia would become as uninhabitable as Greenland.

Ye'll be all moving down here soon.
It only got up to 17 today! Is that still too hot for you 905?