China rocks the dollar - Paul Kanjorski and the 550 billion dollar drawdown
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Subject: China rocks the dollar - Paul Kanjorski and the 550 billion dollar drawdown Mon Oct 27, 2008 10:44 pm
Are China's recommendations likely to be taken up? The US is knackered for the forseeable future and let's face it, the Chinese are making sense:
BEIJING (Reuters) - The United States has plundered global wealth by exploiting the dollar's dominance, and the world urgently needs other currencies to take its place, a leading Chinese state newspaper said on Friday.
The front-page commentary in the overseas edition of the People's Daily said that Asian and European countries should banish the U.S. dollar from their direct trade relations for a start, relying only on their own currencies.
A meeting between Asian and European leaders, starting on Friday in Beijing, presented the perfect opportunity to begin building a new international financial order, the newspaper said.
The People's Daily is the official newspaper of China's ruling Communist Party. The Chinese-language overseas edition is a small circulation offshoot of the main paper.
Its pronouncements do not necessarily directly voice leadership views. But the commentary, as well as recent comments, amount to a growing chorus of Chinese disdain for Washington's economic policies and global financial dominance in the wake of the credit crisis.
"The grim reality has led people, amidst the panic, to realize that the United States has used the U.S. dollar's hegemony to plunder the world's wealth," said the commentator, Shi Jianxun, a professor at Shanghai's Tongji University.
Shi, who has before been strident in his criticism of the U.S., said other countries had lost vast amounts of wealth because of the financial crisis, while Washington's sole concern had been protecting its own interests.
"The U.S. dollar is losing people's confidence. The world, acting democratically and lawfully through a global financial organization, urgently needs to change the international monetary system based on U.S. global economic leadership and U.S. dollar dominance," he wrote.
Shi suggested that all trade between Europe and Asia should be settled in euros, pounds, yen and yuan, though he did not explain how the Chinese currency could play such a role since it is not convertible on the capital account.
A two-day Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM) of 27 EU member states and 16 Asian countries was set to open on Friday. Though few analysts expect much in the way of concrete agreements, Shi said it could prove momentous.
"How can Europe and Asia grasp each other's hands and together confront the once-in-a-century global financial crisis sparked by the U.S.; how can they construct a new equitable and safe international financial order?" he said.
"The world is waiting for this Asian-European meeting to achieve big results in financial cooperation."
Subject: Re: China rocks the dollar - Paul Kanjorski and the 550 billion dollar drawdown Mon Oct 27, 2008 11:02 pm
On the "death of the dollar" thread last week:-
The idea of placing the dollar as reserve currency with a basket of currencies is being floated, and rockyracoon has posted on this in detail. The writer of the blog homes in on the US's very high level of indebtedness as ultimately likely to lead to an end to the currency's reserve role, but at the moment it may be a case of "any familiary port in a storm" and people are pursuing dollars for the want of anything better.
Does the rise of the dollar make it more or less likely that Chinese money will be pulled out of it ? Chinese wealth has propped the dollar up for years?
On another thread, Slimbuddha is saying the Euro may be banjanxed as euro region banks have loaned so much to the emerging Eastern European and Latin American economies that are now contracting.
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Subject: Re: China rocks the dollar - Paul Kanjorski and the 550 billion dollar drawdown Tue Oct 28, 2008 1:02 am
Quote :
Shi suggested that all trade between Europe and Asia should be settled in euros, pounds, yen and yuan, though he did not explain how the Chinese currency could play such a role since it is not convertible on the capital account.
Interesting stuff. The Chinese currency only converts to the dollar at the moment or what? Is this for businesses only or something and in terms of the hard currency it is not kept by other central banks at all? I don't understand the half of this but it's interesting all the same. I don't know how the dollar as reserve world currency could allow America a bunch of free credit or whatever happened... Is it because the dollar is convertible to everything then it gets printed more and diluted among the world's currencies and business ? Or is it not directly the result of international debt being issued only in the dollar so America's debt falls with the fall of international business ?
from two years ago:
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China to gradually make capital account convertible: official (Xinhua) Updated: 2006-04-12 19:24
China is pushing forward its currency Renminbi (RMB)'s capital account convertibility gradually and in a stable manner, said an official with the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), ruling out both an adventurous leap and conservative cautiousness.
Li Dongrong, deputy director of the SAFE made the remark here recently at a working conference held by SAFE on foreign exchange management.
The rules for converting the RMB under capital accounts must be put forward step by step, Li said.
The current mission is to strengthen regulations governing the cross-border flow of capital and promote a more balanced international balance of payments, according to the conference.
RMB convertibility under capital accounts is a complicated issue, said SAFE Director Hu Xiaolian in March. It is a process that should be adapted to China's economic development, capability of macro-control and financial regulation, the maturity of financial markets and the risk management capability of market players, Hu said.
"There is no timetable for China's RMB convertibility under capital accounts," said Hu.
Subject: Re: China rocks the dollar - Paul Kanjorski and the 550 billion dollar drawdown Tue Oct 28, 2008 1:08 am
As far as I understand, China does most of its foreign trading in dollars and also has loaned vast amounts to US banks in dollar form.
This has not been great for them recently as the dollar is worth a lot less than it was a couple of years ago. Now it seems to be increasingly volatile, which is also not great for a trading.
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Subject: Re: China rocks the dollar - Paul Kanjorski and the 550 billion dollar drawdown Mon Feb 02, 2009 12:33 am
It was about September 15th - here's the facts: on Thursday at about 11 o'clock in the morning, the Federal Reserve noticed a tremendous drawdown of ...... money market accounts in the United States to the tune of 550 billion dollars ........... was being drawn out in a matter of an hour or two.
The Treasury opened up its window to help, they pumped 105 billion dollars in the system and quickly realised they could not stem the tide, we were having an electronic run on the banks. They decided to close the operation, close down the money accounts and announce a guarantee of $250,000 per account so there wouldn't be further panic out there and that's what actually happened.
If they had not done that, their estimation was that by 2 o'clock that afternoon, five and a half trillion dollars would have been drawn out of the money market system of the United States which would have collapsed the entire economy of the United States and within 24 hours, the world economy would have collapsed.
Subject: Re: China rocks the dollar - Paul Kanjorski and the 550 billion dollar drawdown Mon Feb 02, 2009 2:07 am
Where do you find these Auditor #9? If there was a Chinese run on the banks, why did they stop? As this is interesting if it is true, is it true, or are these two guys fantasists?
As the Chinese hold a large proportion of their assets in dollars there is a big disincentive to pulling everything they have out in a hurry, but there clearly are breaking points for anything.
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Subject: Re: China rocks the dollar - Paul Kanjorski and the 550 billion dollar drawdown Mon Feb 02, 2009 2:14 am
cactus flower wrote:
Where do you find these Auditor #9? If there was a Chinese run on the banks, why did they stop? As this is interesting if it is true, is it true, or are these two guys fantasists?
As the Chinese hold a large proportion of their assets in dollars there is a big disincentive to pulling everything they have out in a hurry, but there clearly are breaking points for anything.
Some of the fellas on youtube are anoraks and I subscribe to them and they watch every move I suppose. Youngdan might know more about this as it seems to have just come out on television by the looks of it but it could be bs.
Interesting bs though - Kanjorsky is a Representative but he probably hasn't really a handle on the machinations of American dollar funds. I've no idea how the Chinese would have taken the money out - maybe they started selling bonds or something???
5 trillion dollars though - no doubt if there's some truth in it we'll be hearing about it before too long - or maybe there's something about it on Bloomberg
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Subject: Re: China rocks the dollar - Paul Kanjorski and the 550 billion dollar drawdown Mon Feb 02, 2009 2:28 am
It wouldn't be in China's interest to see a disorderly deleveraging of their exposure to US government debt since this would endanger the economic health of the biggest consumer of Chinese products and source of FDI.
That said, it doesn't make much sense for the Chinese to continually lend the US money to continue to build up deficits, increase debt, replace production-led growth with consumption and generally act the economic rogue.
What the Chinese should do is sell their Treasuries slowly - a few billion a month in periods of heavy trading where their activity will not be noticed and re-invest the money into transforming China into a fully-developed economy with world-class infrastructure, education, health service and economic supports for growth industries.
The US should continue to close their trade gap and be fiscally prudent and take this opportunity to re-grow their atrophied production base and work, rather than spend, their way out of this mess.
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Subject: Re: China rocks the dollar - Paul Kanjorski and the 550 billion dollar drawdown Mon Feb 02, 2009 2:37 am
In fact, it is interesting that China, so fond of the double digit growth, might enter an outright recession this year given the fall-off in electricity consumption
"The present boom started in 2003. The speed of GDP growth has been catching up to power consumption growth since then. Nonetheless, GDP growth has been below power consumption growth all through the boom, even with the large upward revision in 2007 GDP. In 2008, though, as the economy came under duress, GDP was suddenly much faster than power consumption.[9] The fourth quarter was far starker: GDP growth was said to hold 6.8 percent even while power demand contracted an (unweighted) 6.7 percent.[10]
Electricity consumption cannot be magically slashed from year to year, much less quarter to quarter. If it could, China's excessive coal use would long since have been resolved. Based on power consumption, a reasonable figure for 2008 annual growth is 6 percent with very little growth in the fourth quarter."
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Subject: Re: China rocks the dollar - Paul Kanjorski and the 550 billion dollar drawdown Mon Feb 02, 2009 2:53 am
Ard-Taoiseach wrote:
It wouldn't be in China's interest to see a disorderly deleveraging of their exposure to US government debt since this would endanger the economic health of the biggest consumer of Chinese products and source of FDI.
That said, it doesn't make much sense for the Chinese to continually lend the US money to continue to build up deficits, increase debt, replace production-led growth with consumption and generally act the economic rogue.
What the Chinese should do is sell their Treasuries slowly - a few billion a month in periods of heavy trading where their activity will not be noticed and re-invest the money into transforming China into a fully-developed economy with world-class infrastructure, education, health service and economic supports for growth industries.
The US should continue to close their trade gap and be fiscally prudent and take this opportunity to re-grow their atrophied production base and work, rather than spend, their way out of this mess.
We've seen mention of this before - the Deadly Embrace of China and America in terms of bonds and trade and isn't it possible that China could have cracked because they weren't getting paid for their work basically? Maybe they thought "to hell with it we'll take the hit" ? At the time, Karl Denninger said the bailout money had gone overseas - paulson knew the exact amount too - was that to placate the Chinese and keep the dance going?
There's something funny about the huge oil price too during the summer but I can't fit it in - was it that ordinary Americans got so screwed by the price of oil that they just weren't paying their debts ? Incredible stuff, the whole lot.
Good news for the environment with the electricity drop of course.
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Subject: Re: China rocks the dollar - Paul Kanjorski and the 550 billion dollar drawdown Mon Feb 02, 2009 3:03 am
Kathy Lien said this at the end of last year:
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2009 Risk: Run on the Dollar
One of the biggest risks facing the US dollar in 2009 is a run on the currency. The global slowdown has forced many central banks around the world to become internally focused. This means that any money that they have will be spent on spurring growth domestically instead of funding US spending. With next to zero yield, a deteriorating balance sheet and the risk of a weaker dollar eroding the notional value of any US investments, there are almost no reasons for foreign investors to load up on US debt. Having been burned badly by investments in Fannie and Freddie Mac, sovereign wealth funds like China have become skeptical of buying more US paper. According to an editorial in the state owned newspaper, China Daily, “China’s increased purchase of U.S. Treasury securities should not be interpreted as an endorsement of the assumption that the U.S. can borrow its way out of the current financial crisis.” If dollar demand continues to wane, we have yet another reason to expect the dollar to weaken in the first half of next years.
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Subject: Re: China rocks the dollar - Paul Kanjorski and the 550 billion dollar drawdown Mon Feb 02, 2009 3:06 am
cactus flower wrote:
Kathy Lien said this at the end of last year:
Quote :
2009 Risk: Run on the Dollar One of the biggest risks facing the US dollar in 2009 is a run on the currency. The global slowdown has forced many central banks around the world to become internally focused. This means that any money that they have will be spent on spurring growth domestically instead of funding US spending. With next to zero yield, a deteriorating balance sheet and the risk of a weaker dollar eroding the notional value of any US investments, there are almost no reasons for foreign investors to load up on US debt. Having been burned badly by investments in Fannie and Freddie Mac, sovereign wealth funds like China have become skeptical of buying more US paper. According to an editorial in the state owned newspaper, China Daily, “China’s increased purchase of U.S. Treasury securities should not be interpreted as an endorsement of the assumption that the U.S. can borrow its way out of the current financial crisis.” If dollar demand continues to wane, we have yet another reason to expect the dollar to weaken in the first half of next years.
I always guessed it wasn't just money that made the world go round but activity. The Economy everywhere is healthy as long as we are all working for Uncle Sam. Very nice of them.
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Subject: Re: China rocks the dollar - Paul Kanjorski and the 550 billion dollar drawdown Mon Feb 02, 2009 3:09 am
But isn't it amazing how poor so many Americans are, when they are so hard working. Is that guy right, that it all goes on wars, and bankers bonuses?
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Subject: Re: China rocks the dollar - Paul Kanjorski and the 550 billion dollar drawdown Mon Feb 02, 2009 3:20 am
Auditor #9 wrote:
We've seen mention of this before - the Deadly Embrace of China and America in terms of bonds and trade and isn't it possible that China could have cracked because they weren't getting paid for their work basically? Maybe they thought "to hell with it we'll take the hit" ? At the time, Karl Denninger said the bailout money had gone overseas - paulson knew the exact amount too - was that to placate the Chinese and keep the dance going?
It could have been, but it's important that China and the US reduce their economic exposure to each other slowly. It is like the arms stockpiles during the Cold War. It took many SALTs and the disarmament of the 90s to see that military situation brought into some balance. China and the US should set a date of, say, 2020 where both China has cut its holdings of US debt and the US has run both fiscal and current account surpluses for a good number of those years. One of the world's biggest economic imbalances is the disparity between China and the US.
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There's something funny about the huge oil price too during the summer but I can't fit it in - was it that ordinary Americans got so screwed by the price of oil that they just weren't paying their debts ? Incredible stuff, the whole lot.
I believe we found the developed world's pain barrier with that spike in the oil price. $150 is that pain barrier and it caused a reflex action which accelerated the crash from those bubbly heights of last Summer.
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Good news for the environment with the electricity drop of course.
It is, but China needs to drastically cut the amount of coal used in electricity production and move to wind, solar, gas, nuclear and hydroelectricity.
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Subject: Re: China rocks the dollar - Paul Kanjorski and the 550 billion dollar drawdown Mon Feb 02, 2009 3:23 am
cactus flower wrote:
But isn't it amazing how poor so many Americans are, when they are so hard working. Is that guy right, that it all goes on wars, and bankers bonuses?
It's ok if there's pain in the economy as long as everyone is taking the pain.
There's no way that's going to happen though.
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Subject: Re: China rocks the dollar - Paul Kanjorski and the 550 billion dollar drawdown Mon Feb 02, 2009 9:04 pm
Whatever about the ins and outs of the possibility of China destroying the dollar, their economy is due a fairly sharp drop in altitude. While slipping into outright recession remains a long-shot(and is indeed one of 2009 black swans of Saxo Bank lore), the economic growth this year should be "only" 5-6%. I'm interested that India's economy is also expected to grow at this rate this year. Given that productivity improvements, investment levels and the generally poorer economic climate in India compared to China, it's interesting that the economic consensus is for both countries to experience the same rate of growth. If China was to grow by 5-6%, then it would be natural to assume that India could but attain a 4% rate yet the consensus opinion does not seem to reflect this assumption.
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Subject: Re: China rocks the dollar - Paul Kanjorski and the 550 billion dollar drawdown Mon Feb 02, 2009 9:27 pm
The chinese are going to have enough problems on their hands by the looks of things
Subject: Re: China rocks the dollar - Paul Kanjorski and the 550 billion dollar drawdown Mon Feb 02, 2009 9:39 pm
from that Guardian link Edo posted:
Quote :
Chen Xiwen, director at the Office of the Central Leading Group on Rural Work, told a news conference that a government survey showed that 15.3% of an estimated 130 million rural migrants to the cities had returned home jobless. Adding in new entrants to the rural labour market gave a total of around 26 million unemployed and potentially restive people in the countryside. Some economists believe this is an underestimate and say the real figure could ultimately reach 40 million.
Government figures issued last month showed almost 9 million urban residents registered as jobless in December and the first increase in the urban unemployment rate - to 4.2% - after five years of successive falls. Many believe the true rate is far higher. Academics have also estimated that 1.5 million of this year's graduates could fail to find work.
"There's a considerable number of rural migrants who are unemployed. After they return to villages, what about their incomes? How will they live? That's a new factor concerning social stability this year," said Chen.
He added that local officials have been told to handle unrest with care and "go to the frontline to explain to and persuade the public". He added: "In principle, police power cannot be applied."
Can anyone else see a new 21st Century Welfare State appearing? To quote yoganmahew on the Pin dole thread:
Quote :
There are two reasons for the dole: - a safety net for those who find themselves out of work against their wishes. - a social stability mechanism to keep from a return to 19th century levels of poverty and disorder, even for those who do not otherwise contribute. Both are useful to society. http://www.thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?p=199720#p199720
I'd go further and say it's now getting necessary that some new system of welfare gets introduced; there's too much production, not enough demand and falling employment...
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Subject: Re: China rocks the dollar - Paul Kanjorski and the 550 billion dollar drawdown Mon Feb 02, 2009 9:57 pm
The biggest short term problem potentially faced by China is US protectionism, or a US default.
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Subject: Re: China rocks the dollar - Paul Kanjorski and the 550 billion dollar drawdown Mon Feb 02, 2009 9:58 pm
Auditor #9 wrote:
from that Guardian link Edo posted:
Quote :
Chen Xiwen, director at the Office of the Central Leading Group on Rural Work, told a news conference that a government survey showed that 15.3% of an estimated 130 million rural migrants to the cities had returned home jobless. Adding in new entrants to the rural labour market gave a total of around 26 million unemployed and potentially restive people in the countryside. Some economists believe this is an underestimate and say the real figure could ultimately reach 40 million.
Government figures issued last month showed almost 9 million urban residents registered as jobless in December and the first increase in the urban unemployment rate - to 4.2% - after five years of successive falls. Many believe the true rate is far higher. Academics have also estimated that 1.5 million of this year's graduates could fail to find work.
"There's a considerable number of rural migrants who are unemployed. After they return to villages, what about their incomes? How will they live? That's a new factor concerning social stability this year," said Chen.
He added that local officials have been told to handle unrest with care and "go to the frontline to explain to and persuade the public". He added: "In principle, police power cannot be applied."
Can anyone else see a new 21st Century Welfare State appearing? To quote yoganmahew on the Pin dole thread:
Quote :
There are two reasons for the dole: - a safety net for those who find themselves out of work against their wishes. - a social stability mechanism to keep from a return to 19th century levels of poverty and disorder, even for those who do not otherwise contribute. Both are useful to society. http://www.thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?p=199720#p199720
I'd go further and say it's now getting necessary that some new system of welfare gets introduced; there's too much production, not enough demand and falling employment...
Or a new system to manage supply to meet demand ? Reduce the working week?
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Subject: Re: China rocks the dollar - Paul Kanjorski and the 550 billion dollar drawdown Mon Feb 02, 2009 10:06 pm
Reduce the working week? Now you're talking. Put a tax on work - the more you do the more you have to pay to do it