Foreign Exchange Watch

Interesting perspective. I went long Swiss on a couple of futures contracts and just got out this evening. The Anglos look awful and the dollar is getting a pasting along with sterling. The Yen didn't move too much today in comparison with the Euro and Swiss. Getting out totally on Friday and coming back after 2 weeks. Doubtless it will be all change.

This will be a huge weekend for shopping centres in Norn Iron with the Euro-Sterling rate. The property market might be dead in the water but parking places in Newry will be at a huge premium

Slim Buddha wrote:

Interesting perspective. I went long Swiss on a couple of futures contracts and just got out this evening. The Anglos look awful and the dollar is getting a pasting along with sterling. The Yen didn't move too much today in comparison with the Euro and Swiss. Getting out totally on Friday and coming back after 2 weeks. Doubtless it will be all change.

This will be a huge weekend for shopping centres in Norn Iron with the Euro-Sterling rate. The property market might be dead in the water but parking places in Newry will be at a huge premium

George Lee looking pretty sick on the nine o'clock saying that the UK is deliberately driving the pound down - the idea of a level playing field common market is a bit of a joke under the circumstances. There must be shops about to close all along the border counties and I wouldn't want to be selling to the UK. If you have euro and want to change it to sterling the bank wants to take the difference.

I never traded a currency but had I sold the dollar last Monday week it would be a great trade. What happens from here is anyones guess because bad news on the euro is not too far away. I will stick with the gold calls.

There is a political angle . The pound and dollar can be allowed to drop without risk to their political backing units but a euro crash could break up the EU. They will try to prevent this but my prediction is that this will happen. This happy jive talk will dissipate as soon as economic bite kicks in. Even the posters here who are seriously deluded know that the only thing that sells the EU is the promise of cash. A better society is the mush talk

I would hold a short trade on the dollar if I had one and let it run

The old UK is rattling her old spears. Anti-terror laws set on Iceland, the pound on an agressive dive and 2 new battleships. Who the heck does that old wagon brittania think she is?

Will this Stg./Eu race to parity create a rippling of unintended consequences on the Emerald Offshore?
Were we not top of the tree when it came to shovelling muckloads of moolah into the UK Property Bubble?
To my uninvested eye it does not look too Cricklewood for a multitude of pressurised Paddyvestors and their forlorn financiers?
Any takers for an interest only in Ilkley?
http://www.independent.ie/unsorted/property/the-smart-investors-money-is-on-northwest-england-269615.html

powderfinger wrote:

Will this Stg./Eu race to parity create a rippling of unintended consequences on the Emerald Offshore?
Were we not top of the tree when it came to shovelling muckloads of moolah into the UK Property Bubble?
To my uninvested eye it does not look too Cricklewood for a multitude of pressurised Paddyvestors and their forlorn financiers?
Any takers for an interest only in Ilkley?

http://www.independent.ie/property/the-smart-investors-money-is-on-northwest-england-26915.html

Hi powderfinger. That link isn't working too well I'm afraid - 404.

I have to compliment you on your question on p.ie once - at least I think it was you - on the subject of the SSIA deposits being used to create more money in the Irish system through the fractional reserve jobbynora. I think you said there was 15 billion in deposits so there could potentially have been 130 + billion created out of that... I wonder did you ever follow that one up - it was a sneaky little McCreevy one if so. Maybe innocuous at the time by him though.

Euro / Stg : what goes up must come down though ? The costs and prices just over the border are getting into a little bubble themselves surely ? I heard Enniskillen was the 6th busiest shopping town in the world .. ?

Conas ata tu Audi?That link is fixed now.
On that ceist.I asked the regulator and the answer he gave was a tad Teddish.I kid you not.His reply was that "That would be an operational matter for the individual institutions."
Ecumenical ,or what?

powderfinger wrote:

Conas ata tu Audi?That link is fixed now.
On that ceist.I asked the regulator and the answer he gave was a tad Teddish.I kid you not.His reply was that "That would be an operational matter for the individual institutions."
Ecumenical ,or what?

Tá mé go maith - go raibh maith agat. Agus tú féin ?

This is what gets me - our regulator gives you a jack hackett answer like that and charges you handsomely for the privilege when it should be your right to know. It's also in the interest of the shareholders of the banks to know what their institutions are doing.

Do you think the regulator knew ? Or even cared ?

cactus flower wrote:

The old UK is rattling her old spears. Anti-terror laws set on Iceland, the pound on an agressive dive and 2 new battleships. Who the heck does that old wagon brittania think she is?

One of the leading rank secondary Powers. Virtually the only one apart from the US with any power projection capability.

I still remember the shock and awe amongst various English liberal friends during the First Gulf War, when they discovered that the threadbare old hearthrug lion they were used to was still a major military power.

youngdan wrote:

These are emergency measures and forget about profit and loss when financial survival is at stake

Indeed.

As you know I have a fondness for Swiss and Yen, particularly Yen. However now the pack has arrived time to consider moving on.

You have to ask just how long can either country afford to have very high exchange rates? It is not as if the Japanese can do much to lower the value of their currency. Interest rates are practically zero. They can do all sorts of selling and buying but that often amounts to a serious waste of money with little real benifit.

Japan has a very large and consistent trade surplus with the rest of the world. It is currently running at over 10,000 billion Yen per year. Much of the imports are oil and resources and the cost of these is falling.

The value of the Yen is often in inverse relationship with the Nikkei. Interestingly the Nikkei peaked not a year or so ago, but back in 1989. It was around 38900. It bottomed in April 2003 at about 7850. Currently it is around 8570 and whilst it will fall back a bit more I don't see there being further major declines here. I would be very surprised if it goes below 7000. There are a lot of good sound businesses in Japan, but they are in fierce competition with other cheaper Eastern countries. I cannot see the Yen at current values being maintained in the medium term. If it is the industrial base will be damaged. So one of the intriguing questions is where does their surplus get invested?

Anyone who thinks the Euro will maintain current values while currencies all around it fall is an optimist. Yes the Euro zone has Germany and France but it also has Italy and Spain.

Right now it is about safe havens. As prices fall there is little point in purchasing assets, but this is going to change. What is the value of base metals now and say 3 years from now. 5 year copper graph below.
http://www.metalprices.com/pubcharts/PublicCharts.aspx?metal=cu&type=L&weight=LB&days=60&size=M&bg=&cs=1&cid=0

Value has dropped but there is a large increase in inventory due to lack of demand. So perhaps a further reduction in price in the short term?

5 year silver below

http://www.metalprices.com/pubcharts/PublicCharts.aspx?metal=ag%20comex&type=V&weight=LB&days=60&size=M&bg=&cs=1&cid=0

5 year gold

http://www.metalprices.com/pubcharts/PublicCharts.aspx?metal=au%20comex&type=V&weight=LB&days=60&size=M&bg=&cs=1&cid=0

Also I am told worth paying attention to cereals and food related as demand in virtually all sectors is increasing year on year. Food prices are likely to increase ahead of inflation. Good for farming.

Difficult, difficult and difficult and anyone who says they know are to be taken with a pinch of salt.

powderfinger wrote:

Were we not top of the tree when it came to shovelling muckloads of moolah into the UK Property Bubble?
To my uninvested eye it does not look too Cricklewood for a multitude of pressurised Paddyvestors and their forlorn financiers?

Those assets are all now worth less at the bat of an eye. It is probably worse than that for why would you now invest in Ireland when there is the appearance of better value elsewhere. Some will be tempted to invest their Euro in Belfast rather than Dublin.

Auditor #9 wrote:

powderfinger wrote:

Conas ata tu Audi?That link is fixed now.
On that ceist.I asked the regulator and the answer he gave was a tad Teddish.I kid you not.His reply was that "That would be an operational matter for the individual institutions."
Ecumenical ,or what?

Tá mé go maith - go raibh maith agat. Agus tú féin ?

This is what gets me - our regulator gives you a jack hackett answer like that and charges you handsomely for the privilege when it should be your right to know. It's also in the interest of the shareholders of the banks to know what their institutions are doing.

Do you think the regulator knew ? Or even cared ?

Who knows Audi?
Having said that ,the gobbldeygook he gave me another time when I played "Ask De regulator" was headscratchingly more Hacker than Hackett.
Some Irish Life Lovechild was born early 2007.She was baptised Bluecube.Alas the poor babog has no Reg Cert save the meagre protections of the Consumer Credit Act 1995.
Give them a call,it's a hoot.They don't have any literature to explain the Process.
At the time Davys were pronouncing the Irish Sub Prime Pork Barrell as a 4 billion Euro "opportunity".
Rest assured said Mr.Regulator,"any Payment Protection Insurance or suchlike contracted in conjunction with your subprime undertakings would come under the remit of his good self as the contract would be with the Host company".Or words to that effect.Huh?
http://archives.tcm.ie/businesspost/2007/04/01/story22278.asp A good backround article by Kathleen Barrington on the fleeting fins of those pioneering gents

Squire wrote:

powderfinger wrote:

Were we not top of the tree when it came to shovelling muckloads of moolah into the UK Property Bubble?
To my uninvested eye it does not look too Cricklewood for a multitude of pressurised Paddyvestors and their forlorn financiers?

Those assets are all now worth less at the bat of an eye. It is probably worse than that for why would you now invest in Ireland when there is the appearance of better value elsewhere. Some will be tempted to invest their Euro in Belfast rather than Dublin.

This raises an interesting possibility Squire.Given the penchant for all things property which hardwire the Celtic palate.Could we see a bit of internicine activity across the pond?Distressed Paddy versus Rich Cash Paddy is not a place for the squeamish.It is a genetic playground ruled by many unquantifiable variables such as ,vanity ,greed and ego.Unknown knowns?

I agree the euro is doomed for many reasons, not least of all because they have as backing US treasuries. However they will try to keep it alive more so than the others. I trust none of them and your coin is golden.

I would not put the the Japaroos and the Swiss in the same boat. The Japaroos have spent billions buying dollars to try to keep their yen low, but the Swiss recognise,hopefully, that the only important thing is that their currency survives.

This idea that Britain is done is false. The British people might be done all right but the real power are the bankers and Obama will jump like he is told.

http://www.group30.org/

There are many levels above him and this group here is just one of the groups who hold the power. You will see that Volcher is pulling Obama's strings and that the Treasury secretary incoming and the AIG boss is included

So many countries have an interest in keeping the value of the dollar up. Firstly they have investments which will depreciate with any fall and secondly they want to maintain a trade and manufacturing cost advantage. It is really quiet a subtle way to kill another countries economy. It is the financial equivalent of pushing drugs. Question is if, or rather when, the dollar falls who is going to be able to carry the loss and who will be dragged down? I am not so sure that being a global currency is a real advantage to the average American. It has priced them right out of work.

YoungDan

True Switzerland and Japan are very different. I wasn't trying to suggest similarity. A lot of people are making comparisons with Japan's recession and the more general here and now. I think that will lead to false assumptions.

Like everyone else I am at sea on this one, but as each month goes by I am more and more convinced that we are heading into an era of high inflation once we are through this initial period of deflation. I am not so sure about all this bipolar (or is that a mental condition) type of inflation some consider a possibility. High inflation, low asset values seems like a contradiction in terms.

Debasing currency value and promoting inflation has to be policy, either that or governments are completely devoid of intelligence. Money is being forced down and debased and will eventually fall against assets. People should start to think about getting out of currency and with the Euro high it is unlikely to get much better.

Expect Eurozone interest rate cuts to try to correct the relative value of the Euro down. If that does not happen every European currency outside the Eurozone is going to have relatively low currency value and that will threaten the economy of Germany. The likes of Nissan UK or even SAAB may become very competitive.

Fine collection of fellows in the G30.

If one believes that the gameplan is a NWO you must think one way and if you accept it at face value you think another way.

A good article here

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/dorsch/2008/1217.html

which suggests that the Swiss too are going to print away.

They all want to take us down it seems.

There will be big things happening soon

That is an interesting article; a good read over a bowl of broth.

It amazes me how anyone can believe that there is a free market.

powderfinger wrote:

Conas ata tu Audi?That link is fixed now.
On that ceist.I asked the regulator and the answer he gave was a tad Teddish.I kid you not.His reply was that "That would be an operational matter for the individual institutions."
Ecumenical ,or what?

Fabulous description, powderfinger. It says so, so much!

Does anyone else think this whole pound devaluation thing might even more deliberate than George Lee suggested?? I wonder if the Eurosceptics in the EU have seized another opportunity (along with overtly and covertly encouraging our Lisbon No vote), to shaft the Euro?? I suspect they dislike it even more than the Americans do at the moment.

Sadly, I suspect this will mean that the British armaments industry will benefit hugely from this.... not to mention enouraging the Continentals to shop in Londres. I betcha this is their real economic escape plan... if the Euro go down in disarray, they win BIG time...more money to the City, UK manufacturing, etc. Funny, isn't it, that their exchange rate with the dollar isn't changing as much?? Wonder if the US is in on this one as well??

Mind you, could the ECB deliberately devalue in some way?? They possibly should consider this

There is one long term plus... de udder half was in the UK yesterday, apparently contacts in the university sector say their sci/tech research funding has crashed big time... one department to my knowledge was getting 15 mill in research funds in 2001.... down to 5 million now.

COWEN and CO MIGHT BE ONTO SOMETHING!!!

The ECB will be forced to reduce interest rates. Keep an eye on the value of ERM 2 countries currencies. The value of some of these currencies may well be tested in the months ahead.

youngdan wrote:

I agree the euro is doomed for many reasons, not least of all because they have as backing US treasuries. However they will try to keep it alive more so than the others. I trust none of them and your coin is golden.

I would not put the the Japaroos and the Swiss in the same boat. The Japaroos have spent billions buying dollars to try to keep their yen low, but the Swiss recognise,hopefully, that the only important thing is that their currency survives.

This idea that Britain is done is false. The British people might be done all right but the real power are the bankers and Obama will jump like he is told.

http://www.group30.org/

There are many levels above him and this group here is just one of the groups who hold the power. You will see that Volcher is pulling Obama's strings and that the Treasury secretary incoming and the AIG boss is included

youngdan: do you seriously think that bunch of conspirators is in control of what is going on, carefully yanking the strings ? This is systemic failure, and well out of the control of any individual or group of individuals.

expat girl wrote:

Does anyone else think this whole pound devaluation thing might even more deliberate than George Lee suggested?? I wonder if the Eurosceptics in the EU have seized another opportunity (along with overtly and covertly encouraging our Lisbon No vote), to shaft the Euro?? I suspect they dislike it even more than the Americans do at the moment.

Sadly, I suspect this will mean that the British armaments industry will benefit hugely from this.... not to mention enouraging the Continentals to shop in Londres. I betcha this is their real economic escape plan... if the Euro go down in disarray, they win BIG time...more money to the City, UK manufacturing, etc. Funny, isn't it, that their exchange rate with the dollar isn't changing as much?? Wonder if the US is in on this one as well??

Mind you, could the ECB deliberately devalue in some way?? They possibly should consider this

There is one long term plus... de udder half was in the UK yesterday, apparently contacts in the university sector say their sci/tech research funding has crashed big time... one department to my knowledge was getting 15 mill in research funds in 2001.... down to 5 million now.

COWEN and CO MIGHT BE ONTO SOMETHING!!!

I think Lee thinks it is deliberate and hostile, from his words and demeanor.
I think the ECB will have to respond, and if it can't the Euro is in trouble.

Would we be complaining if our Government was acting in the best interests of our State? I doubt it. Britain stayed out of the Euro so that they could define their own economic policy independently, particular in a time of crisis. History might well judge that to have been a stroke of genius. What they are doing is no different to our imposition of a low corporate tax rate which everyone knows full well has been the reason for a great many British companies relocating their tax base to Dublin - several high profile companies did so even in the last 12 months.

Got €2094.95 for a £2000 cheque this morning - boourns.

johnfás wrote:

Would we be complaining if our Government was acting in the best interests of our State? I doubt it. Britain stayed out of the Euro so that they could define their own economic policy independently, particular in a time of crisis. History might well judge that to have been a stroke of genius. What they are doing is no different to our imposition of a low corporate tax rate which everyone knows full well has been the reason for a great many British companies relocating their tax base to Dublin - several high profile companies did so even in the last 12 months.

Got €2094.95 for a £2000 cheque this morning - boourns.

Again, the frequency and velocity of angry statements from the UK about the Irish tax regime has noticeable increased in the last few weeks. The mangy old lion is shaking its old mane a lot. Ibis has some right on his side in saying that the UK is still a naval/military power, but it is not in the halfpenny place compared with the US, and the US is not able to maintain its operations without running up a massive deficit.