Are there any posters from Galway here? Arguments for and against the Homechoice Loan Scheme

The eventual amount of money pumped into the property market is somewhat irrelevant. Suffice that the scheme will be up and running soon and if it proves to be deemed "good" will attract further money.

Sympathy is something sadly lacking in our current political sphere. Practicalities, as some would like to portray their views and policies, have been so warped as to represent a sympathetic bias to the very people and insitutions who've landed us in this predicament

tonys wrote:

rockyracoon wrote:

Tony, the point is that people most don't have €60k laying about becuase our economy doesn't make this type of earnings/savings capability possible for the vast majority of people. Home prices, in the absence of securitisation and many other factors, would be much lower in Ireland and in line with people's incomes.

I have no sympathy with developers who have landed themselves in this mess along with a whole host of other property players who ramped Irish property prices way beyond what the economy can support. Let them hang on their avarice.

In addition, if the "seasoned property developers", as you call them, can buy the excess stock that is their choice. They are able to do this because the entire property market in Ireland was seen as a gravy train for so many vested interests and intentionally allowed to become a bubble.

The current govt scheme whereby €1.65 can be borrowed in this current economic climate is nothing more than a political and developer gravy train.

1. It’s 500 million, not 1.65 billion
2. Sympathy doesn’t come into it, the preservation of the national finances, such as they are, should.

I don't think, based on the figures one sees, that 500 million is going to make much of a dent in the problem. It would be much cleaner imv if local government bought empty houses as they come up for sale at building cost and then anyone who wanted to could buy under a shared ownership scheme that has worked pretty well up to now. Why have a new scheme at all.

A lot of the problem in the first place was that social housing stocks were run right down through cheap sale and not replaced. People had no alternative to looking for a mortage on a low income.

cactus flower wrote:

tonys wrote:

rockyracoon wrote:

Tony, the point is that people most don't have €60k laying about becuase our economy doesn't make this type of earnings/savings capability possible for the vast majority of people. Home prices, in the absence of securitisation and many other factors, would be much lower in Ireland and in line with people's incomes.

I have no sympathy with developers who have landed themselves in this mess along with a whole host of other property players who ramped Irish property prices way beyond what the economy can support. Let them hang on their avarice.

In addition, if the "seasoned property developers", as you call them, can buy the excess stock that is their choice. They are able to do this because the entire property market in Ireland was seen as a gravy train for so many vested interests and intentionally allowed to become a bubble.

The current govt scheme whereby €1.65 can be borrowed in this current economic climate is nothing more than a political and developer gravy train.

1. It’s 500 million, not 1.65 billion
2. Sympathy doesn’t come into it, the preservation of the national finances, such as they are, should.

I don't think, based on the figures one sees, that 500 million is going to make much of a dent in the problem. It would be much cleaner imv if local government bought empty houses as they come up for sale at building cost and then anyone who wanted to could buy under a shared ownership scheme that has worked pretty well up to now. Why have a new scheme at all.

A lot of the problem in the first place was that social housing stocks were run right down through cheap sale and not replaced. People had no alternative to looking for a mortage on a low income.

No, 500 million won’t make much difference to the housing market, but judging by the noise coming from the pin it may very well give the pinsters some much needed physical exercise away from their computers and thereby prove itself useful on health grounds if nothing else.

I don't think 40,000 plus can be described as "low income"

rockyracoon wrote:

The eventual amount of money pumped into the property market is somewhat irrelevant. Suffice that the scheme will be up and running soon and if it proves to be deemed "good" will attract further money.

Sympathy is something sadly lacking in our current political sphere. Practicalities, as some would like to portray their views and policies, have been so warped as to represent a sympathetic bias to the very people and insitutions who've landed us in this predicament

It seems to me that at the moment, how we got where we are should be very much second place to where we go from here.

tonys wrote:

rockyracoon wrote:

The eventual amount of money pumped into the property market is somewhat irrelevant. Suffice that the scheme will be up and running soon and if it proves to be deemed "good" will attract further money.

Sympathy is something sadly lacking in our current political sphere. Practicalities, as some would like to portray their views and policies, have been so warped as to represent a sympathetic bias to the very people and insitutions who've landed us in this predicament

It seems to me that at the moment, how we got where we are should be very much second place to where we go from here.

Given that we've had a week to moan and whinge and give out yards (rightly or wrongly), I would have to agree.

EvotingMachine0197 wrote:

tonys wrote:

rockyracoon wrote:

The eventual amount of money pumped into the property market is somewhat irrelevant. Suffice that the scheme will be up and running soon and if it proves to be deemed "good" will attract further money.

Sympathy is something sadly lacking in our current political sphere. Practicalities, as some would like to portray their views and policies, have been so warped as to represent a sympathetic bias to the very people and insitutions who've landed us in this predicament

It seems to me that at the moment, how we got where we are should be very much second place to where we go from here.

Given that we've had a week to moan and whinge and give out yards (rightly or wrongly), I would have to agree.

Responsibility and accountability are not the same as blame, and we are far more likely to go to a good place if we understand how we got to this bad one. Hearing government members looking for "forgiveness" from the public was bizarre, but to my ears a sure sign that they don't intend to change.

cactus flower wrote:

EvotingMachine0197 wrote:

tonys wrote:

rockyracoon wrote:

The eventual amount of money pumped into the property market is somewhat irrelevant. Suffice that the scheme will be up and running soon and if it proves to be deemed "good" will attract further money.

Sympathy is something sadly lacking in our current political sphere. Practicalities, as some would like to portray their views and policies, have been so warped as to represent a sympathetic bias to the very people and insitutions who've landed us in this predicament

It seems to me that at the moment, how we got where we are should be very much second place to where we go from here.

Given that we've had a week to moan and whinge and give out yards (rightly or wrongly), I would have to agree.

Responsibility and accountability are not the same as blame, and we are far more likely to go to a good place if we understand how we got to this bad one. Hearing government members looking for "forgiveness" from the public was bizarre, but to my ears a sure sign that they don't intend to change.

The analysis will go on for donkeys no doubt. I certainly will not forgive and forget. But the problem still has to be fixed. And this takes precedence over anything else. We are looking in bad shape for at least 3 years to come...

EvotingMachine0197 wrote:

cactus flower wrote:

EvotingMachine0197 wrote:

tonys wrote:

rockyracoon wrote:

The eventual amount of money pumped into the property market is somewhat irrelevant. Suffice that the scheme will be up and running soon and if it proves to be deemed "good" will attract further money.

Sympathy is something sadly lacking in our current political sphere. Practicalities, as some would like to portray their views and policies, have been so warped as to represent a sympathetic bias to the very people and insitutions who've landed us in this predicament

It seems to me that at the moment, how we got where we are should be very much second place to where we go from here.

Given that we've had a week to moan and whinge and give out yards (rightly or wrongly), I would have to agree.

Responsibility and accountability are not the same as blame, and we are far more likely to go to a good place if we understand how we got to this bad one. Hearing government members looking for "forgiveness" from the public was bizarre, but to my ears a sure sign that they don't intend to change.

The analysis will go on for donkeys no doubt. I certainly will not forgive and forget. But the problem still has to be fixed. And this takes precedence over anything else. We are looking in bad shape for at least 3 years to come...

Going forward is important, yeah. As long as we learn from our mistakes (which should demand intensive and detailed study)

floatingingalway wrote:

Auditor #9 wrote:

floatingingalway wrote:

See here for details of what you missed

Irish people get an interesting reaction when you tell them they have a chance of getting a roof over their heads. Did you think you convinced any of the sheeple there who were all up for pouring down for the sheep dip ?

It's quite hard to guage how many actual sheeple were there. There were certainly plenty of estate agents, pinsters and Fahy rentacrowd members. I think if we managed to raise a doubt in even one of the potential FTBs, then we did a good job.

My respect for you getting out there and mixing it floatingingalway. By definition most people there either wanted a house or wanted to support the Government. For people to really hear what you are saying though imo you need to have a solution to how people are to get housed, and it needs to be demonstrably a better solution than is being offered.

I agree. My suggestion would be for the local authorities to purchase the excess housing stock at cost price. That way the builders get back what they put in and no more, the long waiting lists for housing would be decimated, and the backlog of new builds goes back to a competitive level.

In a broader economic context, the banks will be under less strain as loans get repaid and therefore will be in a stronger position to withstand the current credit crunch storm.

I would put a number of conditions on the houses purchased. They would have to be A-rated in terms of energy efficiency and they would have to be homebond assured.

Auditor #9 wrote:

The Pin is getting serious ..

No, I don’t think so, it’s just taking itself seriously.

Hey! 100 posts, I’ve made my mark.

tonys wrote:

Auditor #9 wrote:

The Pin is getting serious ..

No, I don’t think so, it’s just taking itself seriously.

Hey! 100 posts, I’ve made my mark.

yeah it takes itself very seriously alright but could they do anything with this if they form enough of a lobby ? they're seriously galvanising for action you know. Couldn't homechoice loan be contrary to some fundamental EU market law ?

Are you off there now that you've made your mark here with 100 posts ? 100 posts - pfft! cactus had that in four hours earlier this year on the Easter Egg thread. We just get started seriously at 1000 here. Come on.

Auditor #9 wrote:

tonys wrote:

Auditor #9 wrote:

The Pin is getting serious ..

No, I don’t think so, it’s just taking itself seriously.

Hey! 100 posts, I’ve made my mark.

yeah it takes itself very seriously alright but could they do anything with this if they form enough of a lobby ? they're seriously galvanising for action you know. Couldn't homechoice loan be contrary to some fundamental EU market law ?

The problem with sites like the pin is that it attracts people of a similar view and the more they talk to each other the more they’re convinced they’re in the right of it.
In the old pre net days they’d just stay inside their own head and in the end come to believe that they’re probably nuts.

Proof, if it was needed that the old ways are best.

I think the reason they're cocky at the moment is that they are largely on the ball - they have after all been predicting the grisly end of a property bubble for four or five years now, maybe more.

They're trainspotters alright, not nuts, and that's not a bad thing - financial jargon/academia meeting the real world.

tonys wrote:

Auditor #9 wrote:

The Pin is getting serious ..

No, I don’t think so, it’s just taking itself seriously.

Hey! 100 posts, I’ve made my mark.

Cheers Tonys - whey heeey !

Auditor #9 wrote:

I think the reason they're cocky at the moment is that they are largely on the ball - they have after all been predicting the grisly end of a property bubble for four or five years now, maybe more.

They're trainspotters alright, not nuts, and that's not a bad thing - financial jargon/academia meeting the real world.

Well there is the classic broken clock example and that at least was right twice in one day, these guys have a way to go yet to be even half as good.
The fact that they are emboldened to action by their numbers, tells who and what you are dealing with here.
A little knowledge goes a long way, mostly a way too far, in my experience.

The Property Pin hasn't been reporting a property crash, or whatever, for several years as some would like to suggest. Various posters have analysed the probabilities and conditions in regards to asset inflation and many other topics; many which are not related to Ireland. (In fact, I can't find reference to the webiste before 2006).

Given the paucity and the often down-right irresponsible mainstream media attention given to the Irish property market, the property pin amongst many other sites has given a more balanced view of what might occur in Ireland.

Granted, some of their posters can be a bit OTT but given the utter shite written and presented in the mainstream media, they are no more guilty of excess than the various property cheerleaders of the last several years. It's up to adults to decide the merits of their analysis, but thank god there was an alternative to the mainstream.

Many Pin poster's knowledge is far superior to that so far exhibited by the so-called experts or the choir of the so-called experts.

If anyone agrees with the pin's move, they should support them. Many people on the pin are very ordinary folk who have seen through the lies and media spinning - just like many people here.
The builder bailout may not be as media friendly as the medical card fiasco but it is even more poisonous to our society.

floatingingalway wrote:

If anyone agrees with the pin's move, they should support them. Many people on the pin are very ordinary folk who have seen through the lies and media spinning - just like many people here.
The builder bailout may not be as media friendly as the medical card fiasco but it is even more poisonous to our society.

As kerrynorth said, is there provision in it somewhere for those who won't be able to pay their mortgages soon because they've no jobs ? KN reckoned the Local Authorities would be in the court over repossessions every second month however that works. That's what is dangerous about this thing now - the "No job ? No problem!" class of sub-prime loan.

Yesterday in the Clare People I saw a Clare house price drop from 350k to 250k - newly built detached house, enormous floor space. I'll get the article for ye later and scan it in. If this is happening to big builds like that then the smaller second-hand three-beds will fall to 180k and below to 160k yet there will be no credit lines open for people who want to purchase those 2nd hand houses? It's clearly not intended to make the buyer's life easier at all.

Auditor #9 wrote:

floatingingalway wrote:

If anyone agrees with the pin's move, they should support them. Many people on the pin are very ordinary folk who have seen through the lies and media spinning - just like many people here.
The builder bailout may not be as media friendly as the medical card fiasco but it is even more poisonous to our society.

As kerrynorth said, is there provision in it somewhere for those who won't be able to pay their mortgages soon because they've no jobs ? KN reckoned the Local Authorities would be in the court over repossessions every second month however that works. That's what is dangerous about this thing now - the "No job ? No problem!" class of sub-prime loan.

Yesterday in the Clare People I saw a Clare house price drop from 350k to 250k - newly built detached house, enormous floor space. I'll get the article for ye later and scan it in. If this is happening to big builds like that then the smaller second-hand three-beds will fall to 180k and below to 160k yet there will be no credit lines open for people who want to purchase those 2nd hand houses? It's clearly not intended to make the buyer's life easier at all.

It's clearly anti-competitive.
It's clearly bailing out developers.
It's clearly a scam.

I'm so angry about this I have to stop typing for fear of what will come out next!

Just one last thing before you go berserk - do we know how many builders or developers will benefit from this or is it spread around between a good few ? If only 1750 FTBs will benefit from this - according to the Tribune - then what's the use of it ? If it's 500 million and if the prices of houses are dropping like shtones then it's possible that MAX 3000 people could benefit from this.. Is that worth it ?

But it'd be interesting to see which developers are receiving this money and how their accounts stand with the banks as it is..

Have a good day

p.s.

tonys point about it being a good time for investors to buy .. isn't it also a good time to whack a tax on investment properties above a certain number ? Someone generously said 5 but 3 sounds enough for anyone. After that you're paying BOOM prices in tax for the property.

Putting a property in your daughter's name and then re-selling it within 15 years or renting it will get your property lifted from you by the CAB.

Auditor #9 wrote:

Just one last thing before you go berserk - do we know how many builders or developers will benefit from this or is it spread around between a good few ? If only 1750 FTBs will benefit from this - according to the Tribune - then what's the use of it ? If it's 500 million and if the prices of houses are dropping like shtones then it's possible that MAX 3000 people could benefit from this.. Is that worth it ?

But it'd be interesting to see which developers are receiving this money and how their accounts stand with the banks as it is..

Have a good day

p.s.

tonys point about it being a good time for investors to buy .. isn't it also a good time to whack a tax on investment properties above a certain number ? Someone generously said 5 but 3 sounds enough for anyone. After that you're paying BOOM prices in tax for the property.

Putting a property in your daughter's name and then re-selling it within 15 years or renting it will get your property lifted from you by the CAB.

I have been arguing for rates on all domestic property for the last ten years, as have many other people. Rent income is taxed unless it is a tax incentive property - people with big incomes were essentially collecting those houses for free and not even paying rates.

What to do is a dilemma. Construction was 25% of the economy. I think the market will knock prices right down anyway, and then there will be a tight supply in a few years as no one can afford to build. Unless of course there is massive emigration.

Most of the damage was done from 2005 on. Up until then there was a genuine shortage of houses that was putting upward pressure on prices. That is why the Pin would not have been predicting a crash before then.

floatingingalway wrote:

Auditor #9 wrote:

floatingingalway wrote:

If anyone agrees with the pin's move, they should support them. Many people on the pin are very ordinary folk who have seen through the lies and media spinning - just like many people here.
The builder bailout may not be as media friendly as the medical card fiasco but it is even more poisonous to our society.

As kerrynorth said, is there provision in it somewhere for those who won't be able to pay their mortgages soon because they've no jobs ? KN reckoned the Local Authorities would be in the court over repossessions every second month however that works. That's what is dangerous about this thing now - the "No job ? No problem!" class of sub-prime loan.

Yesterday in the Clare People I saw a Clare house price drop from 350k to 250k - newly built detached house, enormous floor space. I'll get the article for ye later and scan it in. If this is happening to big builds like that then the smaller second-hand three-beds will fall to 180k and below to 160k yet there will be no credit lines open for people who want to purchase those 2nd hand houses? It's clearly not intended to make the buyer's life easier at all.

It's clearly anti-competitive.
It's clearly bailing out developers.
It's clearly a scam.

I'm so angry about this I have to stop typing for fear of what will come out next!

floatingingalway - I would be really interested to read the details of what is proposed in the budget on housing - do you have any links to the government statements ?