CF
Don't mention horses I still hurt.

Ryanair are obviously feeling the relief of falling prices, that of they are taking a huge gamble. Their prices are down at the levels of a year ago. Suits me well as I have to travel over to London an awful lot between now and February.

A friend of mine who stayed in the oil industry, and is now Regional Well Engineering Manager for the North Sea, West Africa and Central Asia, called me this morning from here:



which in turn is here:



It's in the Rub' al Khali, the Empty Quarter of the Saudi Peninsula. He'd walked up to the top of a dune away from his camp, and found his mobile phone had reception, so he gave me a call. He also texted me his lat/long, which meant I could find him on Google Maps and look at what was around him, see his camp (the green is a reed-bed sewage system about an acre in size). The green and white area to the north is a sabkha called The Mother of All Poisons, and yes it's that colour really....

There is a point to this (apart from how cool technology is) - I asked him about peak oil, and he's amazed there are people who don't think it's happening. The oil industry is on a plateau, and it's harder every year to maintain current production levels.

ibis what about all the unexplored area around the U.S. ? And in Alaska and possibly under the North Pole ? Do the Americans know what's under the U.S. coasts that are currently protected ?

Auditor #9 wrote:

ibis what about all the unexplored area around the U.S. ? And in Alaska and possibly under the North Pole ? Do the Americans know what's under the U.S. coasts that are currently protected ?

Hmm. The problem is that while we might find new fields, we are not going to find another Middle East - in other words, a new area of the world that contains the kind of hydrocarbon reserves that the Middle East does. That essentially means that any new fields, however large, are unlikely to add more than a couple of percent to the world's reserves. Since existing fields are playing out, that means that all these fields will do is keep the plateau going.

What about the Middle East in Irish territorial waters?

ibis wrote:

Auditor #9 wrote:

ibis what about all the unexplored area around the U.S. ? And in Alaska and possibly under the North Pole ? Do the Americans know what's under the U.S. coasts that are currently protected ?

Hmm. The problem is that while we might find new fields, we are not going to find another Middle East - in other words, a new area of the world that contains the kind of hydrocarbon reserves that the Middle East does. That essentially means that any new fields, however large, are unlikely to add more than a couple of percent to the world's reserves. Since existing fields are playing out, that means that all these fields will do is keep the plateau going.

You're right there. So we know for sure, you're saying, that there isn't a similar quantity of oil under Louisiana or off the coast of San Francisco (or somewhere) ? How do we know, if we know ? Some sort of sonar exploration or x-raying the ocean bed is used is that it ?

Auditor #9 wrote:

ibis wrote:

Auditor #9 wrote:

ibis what about all the unexplored area around the U.S. ? And in Alaska and possibly under the North Pole ? Do the Americans know what's under the U.S. coasts that are currently protected ?

Hmm. The problem is that while we might find new fields, we are not going to find another Middle East - in other words, a new area of the world that contains the kind of hydrocarbon reserves that the Middle East does. That essentially means that any new fields, however large, are unlikely to add more than a couple of percent to the world's reserves. Since existing fields are playing out, that means that all these fields will do is keep the plateau going.

You're right there. So we know for sure, you're saying, that there isn't a similar quantity of oil under Louisiana or off the coast of San Francisco (or somewhere) ? How do we know, if we know ? Some sort of sonar exploration or x-raying the ocean bed is used is that it ?

Well, taking both questions together, we know pretty much the geology of the world at a large scale, with the exception of the deep ocean basins. There are various techniques in use, such as seismic profiling. In particular, even areas that are off-limits to drilling have been geologically mapped, and often explored by seismics. So we know that there's nothing like the Middle East out there.

Thing about the ME is that the geology is extremely simple - the rock formations are predictable over hundreds of miles. You can measure the depth of a formation surface (bedding plane) and the angle at which it dips at one point, and work out with a calculator what depth it will be at 200 miles away. The Irish offshore, on the other hand, is much like the Irish onshore - so chopped up by faults and old mountain ranges that you can't even say what kind of geology you'll be looking at twenty miles down the road.

The Burren is a flattish limestone karst, but just over the other side of Galway Bay you're in the eroded remains of a mountain range that was higher than the Himalayas, and is folded to all hell - and which appears to have been shot into place on a huge horizontal fault. By the time you're up to Louisburgh, though, you're looking at the scraped up remains of an old ocean floor, the Clew Bay Ophiolite Complex. Up to Sligo, via more limestone, this time huge reefs like Benbulben, and then into South Donegal, where the Lough Derg Inlier may be about 1.5 billion years old, but nobody's sure, because it's been reduced to the structural consistency of porridge....and so on. It makes for a richly diverse set of landscapes, but dreadful oil conditions, because any reservoirs are almost certainly tiny.

I can not understand this wish to place faith in the unknown, why not just respond to what we do know and address our needs. We are running out of oil and we need new supplies of energy fast. It is as simple as that and unlike sinking money in dead banks it would create local employment and wealth. Just get on with it.

cactus flower wrote:

Where's expatgirl with her horses?

I still think we'll need them. The recession has cut demand to well below supply for now, so hydrocarbon prices are descending, but they won't go on doing that for ever, unless the recession goes on for ever. the problem is, that while we are largely fossil fuel dependant, any growth we experience is going to hit a ceiling of fuel availability, so spiralling prices will set off a new asset depreciation spiral.. hopefully Barack Obama will set an example and cover Arizona with solar panels, but my cynical side is thinking he'll probably get political and bail out the GM/Chrysler/Ford monsters in his North Eastern back yard instead....treating the symptoms and not the cause. Similarly, the bank bailouts. By the time they've copped the real problem, the money supply to fix it will really have dried up.... hope Dmitry, Vlad and Abdullah have our best interests at heart, but I doubt it!

Food (along with clean water) is essential; if we can lower the carbon count of the food supply chain, we can keep prices stable. Mature horse manure makes good fertilizer too.... there's money in muck! Small Irish/British farms can be run largely with horses, and, given the size of the dole queues at present, increasing the farm labour force wouldn't necessarily be a bad way to keep people out of trouble...and cutting out the air freight of fresh veg from Kenya/Argentina will keep more oil in the ground for when it is needed.

God knows how much oil is left in the ground but could an alternative energy bubble be a positive thing ? Plenty of the oil would have to be 'spent' on erecting that scheme but it might be worth it ... the world might at least be left with an infrastructure and set of machinery that would allow further - though slow, growth - if needs be but at least it would be sustainable.

We could see this or not and one of the first signs might be whatever Obama does with the Autos. Would it be a bad thing ?

check dis out.... price drop causing holy hell with investment in renewables and expensive new oil wells.... mean while all spare cash going to the pheckers in the banks, world wide. We're doomed

http://money.uk.msn.com/investing/articles/nicklouth/article.aspx?cp-documentid=11064352&GT1=63257

I think once the dust settles anyone with any sense will take a longer view of energy investment. When we start to come out of this recession commodities and energy will rise in cost. Energy costs will rocket if there is not substantial investment. Of course that scenario would suit some.

Ard-Taoiseach wrote:

cactus flower wrote:

Ard-Taoiseach wrote:

I think the oil prices will fall to as low as 50 dollars in the current climate of the global recession as part of the bursting of the commodity super-cycle.

The Opec reduction in production has not stopped the slide. Michael Ryan should have consulted you: he would have saved millions.

Well, yes. OPEC cannot cut supply fast enough to keep up with the falls in demand. I was accused of being optimistic when I said the price could go as low as eighty dollars! Look at us now! I wouldn't be surprised to see it at 50 by Christmas.

I'm feeling bolder now. I feel the price could go as low as 40 by Christmas.

Russia and Venezuela are no longer recession-proof due to the scale of the crash in oil prices. The bursting of the oil bubble should bring the growth rates down in both of those countries by several percentage points.

Ard-Taoiseach wrote:

Russia and Venezuela are no longer recession-proof due to the scale of the crash in oil prices. The bursting of the oil bubble should bring the growth rates down in both of those countries by several percentage points.

This is Alex Jones and Pastor Lindsey Williams. It's from July this year. Alex Jones looks bored out of his face throughout as he can't get a word in with Williams recounting every detail of his time spent in Alaska with the NWO conspirators, one of whom gives him the "information" below. Williams is always on about a massive undeclared oil reserve in Alaska at Prudhoe Bay which is the backdrop to the conversation in general. The question he is always asking is who is it controlled by ?

Fast forward if you can to 7 mins 40 seconds and let it play for half a minute ...