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 Clean Energy & Efficiency

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Can America substitute oil for renewables in 10 years? (poll closes July 18, 2018)
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PostSubject: Re: Clean Energy & Efficiency   Thu May 08, 2008 10:33 am

Auditor. A barrel is I beleve 42 gallons of crude oil. The price is real. http://www.energy.ca.gov/gasoline/whats_in_barrel_oil.html
Your sums are wrong we are paying about .58 Euro. It looks like you are paying about 80 pence a litre tax. God bless ye keep it up, ye will be rewarded in the next life.
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PostSubject: Re: Clean Energy & Efficiency   Fri May 09, 2008 4:12 pm

Ard-Taoiseach wrote:
Does anyone think that this graph...



...is bearing the hallmarks of a speculative bubble which will burst in the coming 12 months?

Only if an alternative energy source appears. Optimism won't get us out of this. Sticking up windfarms, nuclear plants and tidal generatos might just, along with plugin points in every estate for electric cars...

Anyone got the carbon emission figures for the Nissan Quashqai?? Glad to hear SUVs are dead.... would someone mind telling South Dublin??? Grrr!!! Seems like some folks have deep pockets......
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PostSubject: Re: Clean Energy & Efficiency   Fri May 09, 2008 4:24 pm

We put in a solar panel two months ago and thought we were being a bit cracked and idealistic because the estimated pay-off time was about 10 years (by which time the panel may well have gone for recycling). Now we reckon we are down to a 6 year pay-off and are feeling less cracked. Lovely unlimited hot water for the last week.

The solar panel is nice, but the main answer has got to be cutting back and using less of energy in the first place. Every "alternative" energy has an environmental footprint in production stage and in use.

Joseph O'Connor was on the radio yesterday crying over his €1,000 gas bill (or was it more). We simply will not have the money to carry on with high energy solutions and will have to cut back and live poorer.

Nuclear is high risk and the supply of uranium is limited and short term. Simply not worth it.
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PostSubject: Re: Clean Energy & Efficiency   Fri May 09, 2008 6:14 pm

cactus flower wrote:


Joseph O'Connor was on the radio yesterday crying over his €1,000 gas bill (or was it more). We simply will not have the money to carry on with high energy solutions and will have to cut back and live poorer.

Nuclear is high risk and the supply of uranium is limited and short term. Simply not worth it.

gaaahhh.... 1000 yoyos to Bord Gais?? our last bill was 550+.... but ONLY because it included a boiler repair that accounted for more than 300 of the total. Is he sniffing the stuff?? Did he elaborate as to how he managed to burn that much?? Even the rellies with an AGA (on all the time, but also heats the house) only manage a 350 odd bill.....when also running the CH... in a single glazed house

Yeh, I'd kinda agree about nuclear, except that it WOULD provide a good backup for wind power and the modern plants last about 50 years, don't they?? Even if we only had 1 nuclear power plant, it would give us a few years to make it obsolete. ....just playing devils advocate though, the waste issue worries me, as does the estimate of 2035 for peak uranium, especially as the USGS had peak oil down for 2030.... don't make me laugh.
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PostSubject: Re: Clean Energy & Efficiency   Fri May 09, 2008 6:21 pm

expat girl wrote:
cactus flower wrote:


Joseph O'Connor was on the radio yesterday crying over his €1,000 gas bill (or was it more). We simply will not have the money to carry on with high energy solutions and will have to cut back and live poorer.

Nuclear is high risk and the supply of uranium is limited and short term. Simply not worth it.

gaaahhh.... 1000 yoyos to Bord Gais?? our last bill was 550+.... but ONLY because it included a boiler repair that accounted for more than 300 of the total. Is he sniffing the stuff?? Did he elaborate as to how he managed to burn that much?? Even the rellies with an AGA (on all the time, but also heats the house) only manage a 350 odd bill.....when also running the CH... in a single glazed house

Yeh, I'd kinda agree about nuclear, except that it WOULD provide a good backup for wind power and the modern plants last about 50 years, don't they?? Even if we only had 1 nuclear power plant, it would give us a few years to make it obsolete. ....just playing devils advocate though, the waste issue worries me, as does the estimate of 2035 for peak uranium, especially as the USGS had peak oil down for 2030.... don't make me laugh.

In my minds eye I see a three storey single skin brick Georgian, with rattling sash windows and winds whistling down the hall ways.

Maybe a few rolls of foam draft exclusion tape would sort his gaff out.

I read a lot of agonising about how hard it would be to make substantial cuts in energy use, but I just don't believe it.
Could they not start by not lighting the planet up all night? I can see no reason why deserted streets are kept fully illuminated from 3 a.m. to dawn. All night illuminated shop windows should just be banned ffs.
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PostSubject: Re: Clean Energy & Efficiency   Fri May 09, 2008 7:37 pm

expat girl wrote:


Only if an alternative energy source appears. Optimism won't get us out of this. Sticking up windfarms, nuclear plants and tidal generatos might just, along with plugin points in every estate for electric cars...

I understand that oil is running out, I understand that demand is rising strongly, especially in China and India, I understand that there is a fundamental reason why oil prices should, in general, be rising.

However, there are some times when price rises de-couple from the fundamentals which created them. I feel that the precipitous and vertiginous rise in the price of oil on global markets is consistent with a market that has a smack of a bubble about it.

Looking at that graph, I feel we've already had take off, first sell off, bear trap and we're well into media attention. I think enthusiasm, greed and delusion are the next few stages through which we will smartly progress. We'll be ripe for a big fall after all these surges.
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PostSubject: Re: Clean Energy & Efficiency   Sat May 10, 2008 10:54 pm

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10509303&ref=rss


"Oil jumped to a record of over $126 a barrel on Friday, extending gains to more than 11 percent since the start of the month on fuel supply concerns and a rush of speculator buying.

US crude rose $1.77 at $125.46 a barrel by 2:08pm EDT (1808 GMT), after hitting a record $126.20 earlier. London Brent crude traded up $2.04 to $124.88 a barrel.

Oil has surged since slipping as low as $110.53 a barrel on May 1. Investors have seized on disruptions to crude oil supplies in the North Sea and Nigeria, as well as galloping demand for distillate fuels, a category that includes diesel fuel and heating oil

If the price keeps going up, Opec may consult on an increase in production before it meets in September. In my view, any increase would have to be more than 500,000 barrels per day to have an impact on the price," said the Opec source."

George Bush will bring up the subject of oil prices during talks with Saudi leaders during a planned trip to the Middle East from May 8-13. The Iran-backed Hezbollah group seized the Muslim half of Beirut on Friday from fighters loyal to the US backed governing coalition in the worst spate of violence in Lebanon since the country's 1975-90 civil war(partly due to rising oil and foot prices). Although Lebanon is not an oil producer, civil unrest there has pushed up oil prices in the past, most recently in the summer of 2006 when Israel invaded Lebanon in an unsuccessful attempt to subdue Hezbollah.

Unrest in Nigeria and North Sea problems are also affecting prices.

The next oil threshold being discussed is 150 dollars a barrel.
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PostSubject: Re: Clean Energy & Efficiency   Wed May 14, 2008 3:49 pm

CNN LINKLINKLINK
expat girl wrote:
Ard-Taoiseach wrote:
Some of the economic news making the head-lines today:

Job vacancies decline from 10 to 7%

Households' finances worsened in 2007

Two words...... energy and prices

Fix the rising cost of energy and the economy will be back on track... we still have all our old advantages. Someone with a brain in the Govt needs to figure out that energy costs are going to be the alpha and omega of economic growth (or, rather, lack of it) and start accelerating the switchover from fossil fuel dependancy. Hopefully Eamon Ryan is on track, I hope he will have Lenihan's support Shocked

Was talking to a financial type yesterday.... this person used to be a sunny optimist, but that's been gone a year. They reckon even our 5% measure is an underestimate of Europe wide inflation, when all things are considered, and that we'll really be in the deep brown when the ESB, Bord Gais and all the British utilities hike their prices in the autumn... although no doubt the Brits will use their creative accounting skills to keep their official figures under 3%....lemme guess, they'll put housing costs back IN and take energy costs OUT affraid Evil or Very Mad


I've brought this link over from today's News Review. It shows how unreal the US CPI index is for assessing cost of living/quality of life. A lot of the issues apply to us here too.

There should be an index of essentials - food, fuel, housing (purchase, rent) and let the non-essentials worry about themselves.


http://rss.cnn.com/~r/rss/money_topstories/~3/289693039/index.htm
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PostSubject: Re: Clean Energy & Efficiency   Wed May 14, 2008 8:26 pm

Inflation here is about 25%. It is caused by the federal reserve and is the easiest thing in the world to figure out. Ex Pat Girl, the reason energy is double back there is taxes and the government could halve petrol and diesel in the morning. Why should they, they can afford it and the mutts vote them back in every time.
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PostSubject: Re: Clean Energy & Efficiency   Wed May 14, 2008 10:44 pm

youngdan wrote:
Inflation here is about 25%. It is caused by the federal reserve and is the easiest thing in the world to figure out. Ex Pat Girl, the reason energy is double back there is taxes and the government could halve petrol and diesel in the morning. Why should they, they can afford it and the mutts vote them back in every time.

interesting.... what are the official inflation figures?? Bet they are nowhere near 25%. Creative accounting, feel that feelgood factor.

Sorry youngdan, but as a scientist and someone who accepts the reality of both Peak Oil and global warming, I am in favour of heavily taxing petrol. You should try it, might fund a halfway decent healthcare system for the poor (and keep your infrastructure maintained)..... although, in the case of the US, since they'd just spend it on the military, maybe not... What a Face
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PostSubject: Re: Clean Energy & Efficiency   Thu May 15, 2008 12:29 am

I used to believe in peak oil and everything points to it. However there is evidence that oil is being withheld from the market. Every effort at bringing energy to market has been scuttlled whether it is offshore drilling, offshore wind or drilling in Alaska. The oil interests own the politicians. The video of Williams linked elsewhere says that there is enough oil there for 200 years but BP are keeping it in the ground. That fine Irishman who is chairman of BP is doing a great job fooling people.
The global warming is just about the money. It was 42 degrees here this morning and the radio guys just this very day were laughing at the environmental whackos as they are called here. It seems Paul McCarthy decided to get a hybred limo and Lexus built him one for 85000 sterling. They flew the thing on Korean Airways to him in Britain at a carbon footprint that would take it being driven arround the globe 6 times to make up what it put out in carbon for the trip. These people are considered to be a joke here.
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PostSubject: Re: Clean Energy & Efficiency   Thu May 15, 2008 12:53 am

youngdan wrote:
Inflation here is about 25%. It is caused by the federal reserve and is the easiest thing in the world to figure out. Ex Pat Girl, the reason energy is double back there is taxes and the government could halve petrol and diesel in the morning. Why should they, they can afford it and the mutts vote them back in every time.

Did you read the link on the CPI youngdan? There are more and more people competing for food and fuel.
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PostSubject: Re: Clean Energy & Efficiency   Thu May 15, 2008 2:31 am

That article quotes Bill Gross as saying the inflation rate is a con job. He is the leading bond trader and is the man to listen to about inflation. I have described how the unemployment number is bogus but the inflation rate is worse. For example they take a tv and because it is technically more advanced than it was last year. So a 1000 dollar tv is judged to have cost 1500 a year ago for a similiar product. The inflation rate is cooked downwards so cost of living pension increases can likewise be kept low. As we have seen food has doubled recently.
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PostSubject: Re: Clean Energy & Efficiency   Thu May 15, 2008 2:40 am

Petrol and diesel are now €1.30 and €1.40 a litre down here in Clare. Kerry is near enough to drive for cheap petrol, it's always cheaper there they must be sucking it in out of the Atlantic.

Food does seem to be rising especially milk bread and Green and Black's organic chocolate. I'd have no problem cutting out milk. I really can't see any other prices going up dramatically - it's always cheap in Lidl and Aldi where I shop.
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PostSubject: Re: Clean Energy & Efficiency   Thu May 15, 2008 8:56 am

Here is the story about the hybrid limo. http://worldnetdaily.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=64316
I love these guys who are so worried about global warming that he spends 200000 dollars on a hybrid limo and then some clowns flew it on a plane from Japan. Did Cowen stick with a big merc or did he get a prius. What a laugh. Who is voting for these jokers.
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PostSubject: Re: Clean Energy & Efficiency   Thu May 15, 2008 10:22 am

youngdan where do you find them... Very Happy
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PostSubject: Re: Clean Energy & Efficiency   Wed May 21, 2008 2:02 am

http://www.breakingnews.ie/business/mhgbcwidaugb/

Oil $129 a barrel - what price will it be at the end of May? What price at the end of June?

$134 - $148...
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PostSubject: Re: Clean Energy & Efficiency   Wed May 21, 2008 2:04 am

I feel that we are in a bubble market. The price is rising too fast. Too much speculation is occuring. I feel it could top out over the Summer and crash spectacularly over the Autumn/Winter.
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PostSubject: Re: Clean Energy & Efficiency   Wed May 21, 2008 4:36 am

3.79 a gallon today. The Summer driving season starts this weekend.
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PostSubject: Re: Clean Energy & Efficiency   Wed May 21, 2008 12:29 pm

Ard-Taoiseach wrote:
I feel that we are in a bubble market. The price is rising too fast. Too much speculation is occuring. I feel it could top out over the Summer and crash spectacularly over the Autumn/Winter.

I thought a bubble was caused by price speculation, whereas real price increases were caused by production not meeting demand.

Is oil not the latter ?

Edit : Actually AT, This Article from March would appear to support your sentiment.

Quote :
In fact, demand is falling in some countries. According to economist
John Kemp at the commodities firm Sempra Metals, the U.S. consumed 4 percent less petroleum
in January 2008 than it did the year before. Evans agrees, noting that
the U.S. demand for petroleum products began falling off last July.
Interestingly, this drop in U.S. oil consumption began before crude
prices turned vertical and before we began to see weakness in the
broader economy. Even China's thirst for oil is abating somewhat. Its
demand for oil, which once rose at 10 percent per year, has now dropped
to 6 percent per year. In addition, world surplus oil production
capacity has gone from a very tight 1.5 million barrels per day a
couple of years ago to more than 3 million barrels today, says
petroleum economist Michael Lynch.
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PostSubject: Re: Clean Energy & Efficiency   Wed May 21, 2008 8:58 pm

A world recession would certainly ease the pinch. The last one saw the return of the salmon to the River Thames for the first time in 100 years.
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PostSubject: Re: Clean Energy & Efficiency   Wed May 21, 2008 9:45 pm

EvotingMachine0197 wrote:

Edit : Actually AT, This Article from March would appear to support your sentiment.

Quote :
In fact, demand is falling in some countries. According to economist
John Kemp at the commodities firm Sempra Metals, the U.S. consumed 4 percent less petroleum
in January 2008 than it did the year before. Evans agrees, noting that
the U.S. demand for petroleum products began falling off last July.
Interestingly, this drop in U.S. oil consumption began before crude
prices turned vertical and before we began to see weakness in the
broader economy. Even China's thirst for oil is abating somewhat. Its
demand for oil, which once rose at 10 percent per year, has now dropped
to 6 percent per year. In addition, world surplus oil production
capacity has gone from a very tight 1.5 million barrels per day a
couple of years ago to more than 3 million barrels today, says
petroleum economist Michael Lynch.

Exactly, and here's another quote which backs up this view:

"That brings us to speculation. Evans observes that since September 2003, the total number of open crude oil futures and options contracts rose by 364 percent. Meanwhile the global demand for petroleum rose by just 8.2 percent. "So the futures and options market has become more important than the physical supplies in driving the price," concludes Evans. "We are seeing investment flows into the oil market that don't have anything to do with the demand and supply of oil."

Source.

I feel prices will rise to about $175 in a huge bubbly surge over the Summer and crash back to below $100 by the start of 2009.
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PostSubject: Re: Clean Energy & Efficiency   Wed May 21, 2008 9:51 pm

I don't know about a crash because there are supply uncertainties. Bit it is certainly looking like a flight from capital to some extent as food and petrol look a little more certain than financial products.
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PostSubject: Re: Clean Energy & Efficiency   Wed May 21, 2008 9:56 pm

cactus flower wrote:
I don't know about a crash because there are supply uncertainties. Bit it is certainly looking like a flight from capital to some extent as food and petrol look a little more certain than financial products.

And with leading indicators suggesting a fall-off in the crunchiness of the liquidity crisis, we could see money switching from oil back to fund markets.

The conditions for lending are at a nine-month high, apparently, suggesting that the worst of the financial storm is over.
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PostSubject: Re: Clean Energy & Efficiency   Wed May 21, 2008 10:13 pm

That is just misleading by whoever Evans is because the number of contracts traded has absolutely nothing to do with the amount of oil consumed daily. It is like saying if more gamblers back a horse he will run faster.
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