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 Questions about the ECB

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PostSubject: Re: Questions about the ECB   Tue Jul 22, 2008 12:20 pm

Squire wrote:
What do all these curves have in common? IMO a distinct similarity to the curve on property prices.
Have the metal bubbles inflated after the property one peaked? (We are now possibly in the energy bubble so I wonder are metals going to drop next if you're right)
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PostSubject: Re: Questions about the ECB   Tue Jul 22, 2008 1:04 pm

I don't know, but I don't like to enter any market after sharp rises. Clearly there is a flight to commodities at the minute. Precious metals are a bit peculiar in that their value will very much depend on the value of currencies and how we think they are going to go.

It is such a complicated interrelationship, chaotic really and beyond me.

Will the dollar, sterling and the Euro fall? The dollar is already down as is sterling and I think that to be competitive with Eastern economies they (and the Euro) need to fall further or some of the eastern currencies rise. Despite all the banks being real pillocks, and a few more may go down, I just don't see a major melt down. A year ago it was a very real possibility, but now I doubt it. So currencies systems adjust but collapse I don't think so.


With all the funny money that is being printed in theory that will push up inflation, but there are so many deflationary pressures, high levels of debt being one such. Interest rates in Europe will increase I can see say 1% but beyond that again I doubt it.

With the American economy it will shrink, but really we have to keep a sense of balance, we are talking about a major developed economy not the Congo. America may decline in relative importance, but it is not going to go the way of the USSR. As for it dragging other countries down with it, yes it will cause some pain, but China and India need as much production as possible diverted to domestic demand and real need. We don't need Americans to be the worlds consumers.

We are going to have some lean years ahead, but really that is merely a return to normality and perhaps no bad thing.
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