|Subject: Re: Is the Irish Independent Lying? Fri Jun 20, 2008 2:24 pm|| |
I've got it on pdf. - good little report.
Fourth Master: Growth
Number of posts : 4226
Registration date : 2008-03-11
|Subject: Re: Is the Irish Independent Lying? Fri Jun 20, 2008 3:22 pm|| |
So it sort of looks like Fionnan Sheehan has been vindicated.
|Subject: Re: Is the Irish Independent Lying? Fri Jun 20, 2008 4:48 pm|| |
It is instructive to compare what he wrote about the poll with the actual poll report that is now - just about - in the public domain.
|Subject: Re: Is the Irish Independent Lying? Fri Jun 20, 2008 5:33 pm|| |
- Helium Three wrote:
- It is instructive to compare what he wrote about the poll with the actual poll report that is now - just about - in the public domain.
This was the Independent story taken from their site.
- Quote :
- ALMOST three-quarters of people who voted 'No' in the Lisbon Treaty referendum mistakenly believed the pact could be easily renegotiated.
A major survey of voters conducted by the European Commission immediately after last Thursday's referendum reveals why a majority of Irish people rejected the treaty.
The publication of the first research into the reasons behind the 'No' vote comes as Taoiseach Brian Cowen and Foreign Affairs Minister Micheal Martin desperately attempt to garner support across the EU to help Ireland resolve the crisis caused by the result.
The poll of 2,000 voters found:
- Young people voted 'No' by a margin of two to one.
- The vast majority of women voted 'No'.
- A large number of people who do not vote in general elections voted.
- People who did not understand the treaty voted 'No'.
- The huge influx of immigrants into the country was a factor in the 'No' vote.
- More than 70pc of 'No' voters thought a second treaty would be negotiated.
This belief is being attributed to the Nice I and II scenarios, where the treaty was re-run in a referendum after assurances were given on Ireland's neutrality.
The findings show immigration was an unspoken factor in the vote, as people expressed concern about the numbers of immigrants coming to the country in such a short time. The rise in unemployment, allied to foreign workers coming to the country, was also cited.
The story and as I remember the newspaper itself made big play of immigration as a factor and made out that there was a mistaken belief by No voters that the Treaty could be renegotiated.
This is what the eurobarometer report says
- Quote :
- The “no” voters were also presented with a list of the potential reasons for their decision, the responses were diverse and numerous – going from a lack of information about the treaty to, for example, a way of protesting against the government’s policies. A lack of information about “Lisbon” was the main
reason for voting against the treaty (22% of all answers), followed by the desire to protect Irish identity (12% of all answers).
Besides these two main rationales, “no” voters gave a number of other explanations – that together led to a multitude of reasons – these included a lack of trust in politicians in general; a wish to safeguard Irish neutrality in security and defence matters; the desire to keep an Irish Commissioner in every
Commission; the need to protect the Irish tax system (in each case, 6% of all answers) as well as interpreting their vote as a vote against a “unified Europe” (5% of all answers).
At the bottom of the list, just 1% of all survey responses adjudged the “no” votes that they cast to be either a way of avoiding an influx of immigrants or as a method of saying that the treaty did not need fixing, as it was “fine”.
It also said this
- Quote :
- EU-related issues:
• An impressive 76% of “no” voters supported the view that the “no” vote would allow the Irish government to renegotiate “exceptions” within the treaty, whereas only 38% of “yes” voters held this opinion.
• There was relatively little difference in the opinions as to whether the EU institutions would be blocked: 42% of “yes” voters vs. 33% of “no” voters agreed on that point
• There was even less difference concerning the views about the “no” vote blocking
moves to a more federal Europe: 52% of “no” voters vs. 48% in the “yes” camp
• When it came to whether Ireland’s position in the EU would be weakened, 64% of
the “yes” voters supported this view while only a quarter (24%) of “no” voters felt
• The vast majority in either camp (88.5% of the “no” voters and 89% of the “yes”
voters) rejected that the vote could mean that Ireland was on its way out of the EU.
• As expected, more “no” voters than “yes” voters felt that the result would strengthen Ireland’s position in the EU: 39% vs. 19%.
The impression a reader of the Independent would have got was that immigration was a major issue (if not the major issue) in the vote and that No voters had voted on the basis of a "mistaken" belief that renegotiation of exception for Ireland was possible. Given that renegotiations seem to have started de facto and that Barroso is talking about 27 Commissioners, it seems to be the Independent that was "mistaken".
|Subject: Re: Is the Irish Independent Lying? || |