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 The Lisbon Debate Continues

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PostSubject: Re: The Lisbon Debate Continues   Fri Jun 13, 2008 1:04 am

There is counting all around the country. I may be wrong but I don't think anyone at all can turn up - you need some kind of justification either as an official, a member of the press or be sanctioned by a politician. I'm well open to correction on that.
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PostSubject: Re: The Lisbon Debate Continues   Fri Jun 13, 2008 1:07 am

Kate P wrote:
There is counting all around the country. I may be wrong but I don't think anyone at all can turn up - you need some kind of justification either as an official, a member of the press or be sanctioned by a politician. I'm well open to correction on that.

Yep kate - you're right about that - I got my golden ticket this evening for the RDS for tomorrow (God knows why Im going - for anybody on the Yes side - its going to be masochism in the extreme)
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PostSubject: Re: The Lisbon Debate Continues   Fri Jun 13, 2008 1:18 am

It's going to be a No in your opinion so Edo?

Why don't they charge at the door, get a cup of coffee etc. - it's not really open if you have to be special to go in, is it? I can understand being limited by numbers but surely there'd be a way of avoiding the possible dangers they are trying to avoid by golden tickets..

rant rant rant
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PostSubject: Re: The Lisbon Debate Continues   Fri Jun 13, 2008 1:28 am

Auditor #9 wrote:
It's going to be a No in your opinion so Edo?

Why don't they charge at the door, get a cup of coffee etc. - it's not really open if you have to be special to go in, is it? I can understand being limited by numbers but surely there'd be a way of avoiding the possible dangers they are trying to avoid by golden tickets..

rant rant rant

I honestly dont know Audi - but it would be the trend - the Nos were a pretty dedicated bunch - The Euro referendums are their big occasions - when their vote will actually count for something - the dont knows will stay at home -

FF say that they have got their supporters out - but they wont see where their supporters put the X on the ballot sheet and I've got a sinking feeling about that - this isn't a GE so like so many in this country -will use the opportunity to give the boys a bit of a kick - because everybody knows that there will no consequences out of this ballot.

My family is split down the middle - Mother and sis are voting no , mself and the auld lad yes and the other 2 bros couldn't be arsed changing the habit of a lifetime and actually turning up at the polling station.

As regards the count and who can go - well ye probably have a point - dont know exactly why - probably health and safety and security considerations and the only muppets who are normally interested are political nerds like meself. Didnt get a ticket for the GE , but turned up in the horseshow house after work and one of the labour guys was going home and he gave me his.
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PostSubject: Re: The Lisbon Debate Continues   Fri Jun 13, 2008 2:46 am

So we have a man on the inside in the rds tomorrow. Quite the scoop. Will you have internet access?
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PostSubject: Re: The Lisbon Debate Continues   Fri Jun 13, 2008 2:18 pm

riadach wrote:
So we have a man on the inside in the rds tomorrow. Quite the scoop. Will you have internet access?

Is that what we need an RSS feed for? text access to MN ?
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PostSubject: Re: The Lisbon Debate Continues   Fri Jun 13, 2008 3:48 pm

I'm sure you can access websites normally with some of the more recent internet phones although Kerrynorth has had problems with this site with his. Do you think Nokia might give us a trial version to test for them if we wrote?
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PostSubject: Re: The Lisbon Debate Continues   Fri Jun 13, 2008 4:08 pm

Hey Guys - just back from the RDS - sorry had no laptop with me.

Congrats to the Nos - except for those Coir nutters - I will be back boys! - the opportunity was there and you took it - Well done - but I think Sinn Fein and the peoples movement should take most the credit that I dont give to the Government - Funnily Libertas will claim the credit - but in truth they had little to do with - the ABC1s that they targeted voted firmly Yes

Photo of the Day when I get a chance to upload it off me phone - Johnny McGuirk tastefully and dutifully carryingf around Mrs Ganley's Gucci Bag around the RDS- fcking priceless!

Looks like it will be 55-60% No - 40-45% Yes - Definite No - just depends on the margin - just as I felt it would be - a big populist protest vote.

On the pluses - from the tallycounts my consitituency will vote Yes about 60/40 - with the 6 areas I most extensively canvassed and leaftleted -went at from 60-40 up to 75-25 in favour - so I guess that is something.

I was tallying with Chris Andrews and Eoin Ryan over our shoulder and was fully agreed that the FF vote had stayed at home

Later Guys
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PostSubject: Re: The Lisbon Debate Continues   Fri Jun 13, 2008 4:10 pm

Edo wrote:

I was tallying with Chris Andrews and Eoin Ryan over our shoulder and was fully agreed that the FF vote had stayed at home

Later Guys

Really? That'll wound their ability to pin this No vote on the Opposition parties. The euro has plunged on the back of this expected No.
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PostSubject: Re: The Lisbon Debate Continues   Fri Jun 13, 2008 4:12 pm

Heard that about the Euro on the Pat Kenny extended Referendum edition earlier. Micheál Martin had it dead right about the disconnect between the voter and politicians/Europe...

The dollar hasn't surged with that Dakota oil find reported in Bloomberg in youngdan's post on the oil/energy thread has it?


Last edited by Auditor #9 on Fri Jun 13, 2008 4:13 pm; edited 1 time in total
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PostSubject: Re: The Lisbon Debate Continues   Fri Jun 13, 2008 4:13 pm

Auditor #9 wrote:
Heard that about the Euro on the Pat Kenny extended Referendum edition earlier. Micheál Martin had it dead right about the disconnect between the voter and politicians/Europe...

No vote can't be blamed on poor turnout either, 53% is the figure which is pretty high compared to previous referenda.

This is mighty exciting!
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PostSubject: Re: The Lisbon Debate Continues   Fri Jun 13, 2008 4:16 pm

Ard-Taoiseach wrote:
Edo wrote:

I was tallying with Chris Andrews and Eoin Ryan over our shoulder and was fully agreed that the FF vote had stayed at home

Later Guys

Really? That'll wound their ability to pin this No vote on the Opposition parties. The euro has plunged on the back of this expected No.

It was crystal clear Ard - FGs strongholds in the South and West of the Consitituency held firm and even better than expected - FF fell flat and totally capitulated to Sinn Fein in the Inner City - (Sorry Zhou - but it can't be avoided)


Last edited by Edo on Fri Jun 13, 2008 4:35 pm; edited 1 time in total
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PostSubject: Re: The Lisbon Debate Continues   Fri Jun 13, 2008 4:19 pm

Edo wrote:
Ard-Taoiseach wrote:
Edo wrote:

I was tallying with Chris Andrews and Eoin Ryan over our shoulder and was fully agreed that the FF vote had stayed at home

Later Guys

Really? That'll wound their ability to pin this No vote on the Opposition parties. The euro has plunged on the back of this expected No.

It was crystal clear Ard - FGs strongholds in the South and West of the Consitituency held firm and even better than expected - FF fell fall and totally capitulated to Sinn Fein in the Inner City - (Sorry Zhou - but it can't be avoided)

Interesting, and FF voters were supposed to be the ones strongest behind this and FG were the ones who were going to kick Cowen in the teeth in the ballot. Very good stuff. There will be as much soul-searching in FF as in the EU after this, methinks.
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PostSubject: Re: The Lisbon Debate Continues   Fri Jun 13, 2008 4:19 pm

I have to agree with you Edo. FF cannot pin this on the opposition and I don't think Cowen will try.

On the other hand, I don't think it is necessarily fair to blame the Government. The EU set-up should be something that people want to buy into. At the moment it isn't, despite the fact that the European identity is stronger than ever and the citizenry of Europe are critically aware of our common problems.
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PostSubject: Re: The Lisbon Debate Continues   Fri Jun 13, 2008 4:21 pm

Turnout is very interesting, isn't it? 53% is a very strong number considering the slow voting in the morning. There must have been a very strong surge between 7 and half 8, after people got home from work.
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PostSubject: Re: The Lisbon Debate Continues   Fri Jun 13, 2008 4:27 pm

Zhou_Enlai wrote:
I have to agree with you Edo. FF cannot pin this on the opposition and I don't think Cowen will try.

On the other hand, I don't think it is necessarily fair to blame the Government. The EU set-up should be something that people want to buy into. At the moment it isn't, despite the fact that the European identity is stronger than ever and the citizenry of Europe are critically aware of our common problems.

Bad Timing dude - it was all about the economics - DSE voted Yes because there were no economic issues outside the inner city pockets and they voted on the Treaty itself - its no surprise to me that its commuterland where negative equity,inflation, and job insecurity that voted loudest No in Dublin -and I hate to be honest here - a non existent campaign by FF compared to ourselves in FG - If I had the amount of time I had to give to the people in areas I canvassed - roughly 20 minutes each and answering all questions - to all other areas This referendum would have been carried - a lot of TDS and their local organisations will have to look in the mirror and ask themselves how hard they really tried.
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PostSubject: Re: The Lisbon Debate Continues   Fri Jun 13, 2008 4:29 pm

Edo wrote:
Zhou_Enlai wrote:
I have to agree with you Edo. FF cannot pin this on the opposition and I don't think Cowen will try.

On the other hand, I don't think it is necessarily fair to blame the Government. The EU set-up should be something that people want to buy into. At the moment it isn't, despite the fact that the European identity is stronger than ever and the citizenry of Europe are critically aware of our common problems.

Bad Timing dude - it was all about the economics - DSE voted Yes because there were no economic issues outside the inner city pockets and they voted on the Treaty itself - its no surprise to me that its commuterland where negative equity,inflation, and job insecurity that voted loudest No in Dublin -and I hate to be honest here - a non existent campaign by FF compared to ourselves in FG - If I had the amount of time I had to give to the people in areas I canvassed - roughly 20 minutes each and answering all questions - to all other areas This referendum would have been carried - a lot of TDS and their local organisations will have to look in the mirror and ask themselves how hard they really tried.

It's amazing how much these electoral events come down; not to policies, beliefs or attitudes; but to simple organisation.
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PostSubject: Re: The Lisbon Debate Continues   Fri Jun 13, 2008 5:03 pm

FF did very little as far as I can see. I think a year of Bertie bashing sucked the enthusiasm out of FF people. On top of that, things aren't going well economically so the motivation to get out there and get abused was probably quite low.

Funnily enough, I don't know if FF supporters will take the defeat that badly. They are voters themselves and it is hard to imagine that they weren't split like everybody else.
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PostSubject: Re: The Lisbon Debate Continues   Fri Jun 13, 2008 6:17 pm

Apparently, my constituency, Dublin North Central, edged a yes vote. At least I still feel my vote counts for something.
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PostSubject: Re: The Lisbon Debate Continues   Fri Jun 13, 2008 6:21 pm

riadach wrote:
Apparently, my constituency, Dublin North Central, edged a yes vote. At least I still feel my vote counts for something.

Didn't matter how I voted, I'm in No Mans'(and Women's) Land.
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PostSubject: Re: The Lisbon Debate Continues   Fri Jun 13, 2008 6:28 pm

Ard-Taoiseach wrote:
Edo wrote:
Zhou_Enlai wrote:
I have to agree with you Edo. FF cannot pin this on the opposition and I don't think Cowen will try.

On the other hand, I don't think it is necessarily fair to blame the Government. The EU set-up should be something that people want to buy into. At the moment it isn't, despite the fact that the European identity is stronger than ever and the citizenry of Europe are critically aware of our common problems.

Bad Timing dude - it was all about the economics - DSE voted Yes because there were no economic issues outside the inner city pockets and they voted on the Treaty itself - its no surprise to me that its commuterland where negative equity,inflation, and job insecurity that voted loudest No in Dublin -and I hate to be honest here - a non existent campaign by FF compared to ourselves in FG - If I had the amount of time I had to give to the people in areas I canvassed - roughly 20 minutes each and answering all questions - to all other areas This referendum would have been carried - a lot of TDS and their local organisations will have to look in the mirror and ask themselves how hard they really tried.

It's amazing how much these electoral events come down; not to policies, beliefs or attitudes; but to simple organisation.

Without wanting to take anything away from the efforts of canvassers of all kinds to make their case, the striking thing in this campaign was the extent to which people independently came to a similar conclusion, contrary to all the "best advice".
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PostSubject: Re: The Lisbon Debate Continues   Fri Jun 13, 2008 7:35 pm

Where is ibis on all this?

Now that it's dormant (if comments on another thread are true that Barrosso was told by Cowen that the treaty is not dead yet) I wonder what next.
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PostSubject: Re: The Lisbon Debate Continues   Sat Jun 14, 2008 11:29 am

Slighty off topic but Declan Ganley is on the Dunphy show at the moment praising Churchilll and Thatcher up and down and then his first choise of music is 'Follow me up to Carlow'.

From William Hague type hero worship to streams of flowing Saxon gore.....mmmmm....what the f...? Suspect
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PostSubject: Re: The Lisbon Debate Continues   Sat Jun 14, 2008 12:13 pm

Zhou_Enlai wrote:
FF did very little as far as I can see. I think a year of Bertie bashing sucked the enthusiasm out of FF people. On top of that, things aren't going well economically so the motivation to get out there and get abused was probably quite low.

Funnily enough, I don't know if FF supporters will take the defeat that badly. They are voters themselves and it is hard to imagine that they weren't split like everybody else.

I think Bertie was a factor - but not in the way you say. He dragged the whole sorry saga out interminably - long after the writing was on the wall for him. In the process he diminished himself and the FF party - who were held up by it - nobody knew what fresh mortifications Ahern would bring down on them at any time. Cowen couldn't seriously get down to a yes campaign before Ahern resigned and by then there was not enough time left to plan and implelent a strategy. Events were running him. But FF did themselves no favours by carrying on with a ludicrous attempt to defend the indefensible. The very worst thing they could do to themselves now is attempt a second referendum. People are very angry about being nagged and bullied into saying things they don't really mean.
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PostSubject: Re: The Lisbon Debate Continues   Sat Jun 14, 2008 12:31 pm

I'm inclined to disagree with you too, Zhou_Enlai.

I spoke to FF supporters yesterday who had been out trying to sell the Treaty without having read it and without really knowing what was in it. one said that they had been "briefed - in more ways than one" about it. In other words, they knew damn all and found it very difficult to deal with questions.

The leadership change was an issue but a general election campaign lasts three weeks. Theoretically it should have been possible for FF to run a blitz on information and canvassing in that time and they simply got the campaign wrong.

It happens over and over again that people complain they don't know enough about the issues and don't know how to vote on that basis. If FF and the others were serious about this, they would have combined their efforts to produce an information document that would quote parts of the Treaty and explain to people very clearly what the issues were. God knows the questions were being asked at national and local meetings since Christmas. The Yes response was naive and complacent in that regard.

There's no reason why the strategy couldn't have been in place before BA left. Remember, Cowen only came to power in May but for three weeks previous to his accession he had been Taoiseach in waiting. Plenty of time to be getting your act together.

The Yes side was far too slow in providing responses to the questions raised by the No side which gave the information a chance to become entrenched in the minds of some people. I was flagging this on p.ie for ages as an observation from the Forum meetings long before the campaign started.
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