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 Lisbon stuff - split from Sibin

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PostSubject: Re: Lisbon stuff - split from Sibin   Fri Jun 06, 2008 2:13 am

So tell us ibis (I know you won't) is it dead in the water? Do you feel it in the bowels?
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PostSubject: Re: Lisbon stuff - split from Sibin   Fri Jun 06, 2008 3:18 am

Auditor #9 wrote:
So tell us ibis (I know you won't) is it dead in the water? Do you feel it in the bowels?

I think there's only been a couple of occasions when I felt it would pass, to be entirely honest. Somewhat depressing, really. I think I can lay a fair claim to
Libertas' slogan - facts, not politics - and by and large the political
establishment has been a burden rather than a help.

I think the complete lack of 'official' effort through March and April left the field clear for the No side, so that a lot of what they said wasn't contradicted early on. The official campaigns only started in May, and by that time they had too much ground to make up - they started a reactive campaign to counter the various spurious claims (the majority of which only sound good), and haven't actually got a positive campaign off the ground at all. FF's early effort wasn't even reactive - it was scaremongering, and dismissals of the various No campaigns themselves.

I think FG have run a very good campaign - they were in early, out on the streets early, and ran a rebuttal campaign early. As far as I can tell through the smoke, FG are now trying to run a positive campaign, but the outlying elements of the party are still at stage 1. I see the FF shills on p.ie are already trying to put the blame on FG, amazingly.

Labour were...where? Running an early poster campaign for the locals, I think.

The Greens, unfortunately, were somewhat hamstrung. McKenna found her movement early on, but the main players...hmm. I imagine they would be wary of alienating the third of their support base that oppose the Treaty.

The attention paid by the media to Libertas has given the No vote a respectable face. We may not consider Libertas respectable (and most of the No side doesn't), but 'successful businessman' just attracts automatic respect in Ireland.

Is it actually dead in the water? No, I don't feel that. It's been in a state of flux all along. What matters is what people think on the day. The polls had it for the opposition just before the general election last year (you may remember the FG crowing before the results), but I thought a large part of that was attributable to people not wanting to say they were going to vote for the crowd of chancers. I think it's currently popular to say you're voting No, but all that actually counts is where you put your mark on the ballot paper.

As Edo says, though, it's a complicated treaty, about a complicated institution, and one which the Irish government frequently uses as a scapegoat for its own misdeeds. Frankly, very few people are actually good at explaining complicated things in an understandable way.
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PostSubject: Re: Lisbon stuff - split from Sibin   Fri Jun 06, 2008 3:39 am

Well it's not over yet of course but the last IT poll where FF got their General Election thereafter was spot on. The Bertie distractions must have played a part too this year early on.

The folks I've heard voicing their concerns really center around getting our shit together here first and they sound very adamant - I was really surprised at some meetings recently as they seemed to have supernatural conviction about this and expressed their concern at the loss of sovereignty with the competences and all that stuff. They went on about the health here too and basically their line was that we're not on the ball here at all so how can we vote for something bigger which is a fair point.

I can see how Europe might help us out of that too though.. environmentally maybe but socially I don't know if this treaty has stuff in it for ordinary joe soaps.

I don't see the hullaballoo about Libertas either unless he was the only businessman coming out and he happened to be coming out against it - weren't there big profile firms and businessmen coming out for this Treaty? Or was it all economists and some academics?
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PostSubject: Re: Lisbon stuff - split from Sibin   Fri Jun 06, 2008 4:17 am

Auditor #9 wrote:
Well it's not over yet of course but the last IT poll where FF got their General Election thereafter was spot on. The Bertie distractions must have played a part too this year early on.

The folks I've heard voicing their concerns really center around getting our shit together here first and they sound very adamant - I was really surprised at some meetings recently as they seemed to have supernatural conviction about this and expressed their concern at the loss of sovereignty with the competences and all that stuff. They went on about the health here too and basically their line was that we're not on the ball here at all so how can we vote for something bigger which is a fair point.

I can see how Europe might help us out of that too though.. environmentally maybe but socially I don't know if this treaty has stuff in it for ordinary joe soaps.

I don't see the hullaballoo about Libertas either unless he was the only businessman coming out and he happened to be coming out against it - weren't there big profile firms and businessmen coming out for this Treaty? Or was it all economists and some academics?

There were plenty, but...well, hmm...here's the scores for mentions in the press since early February:

Sinn Fein: National 513, Regional 46
Libertas: National 357, Regional 14
IBEC: National 130, Regional 17

That's based on search engine results - still, that's a pretty impressive performance for a newcomer like Libertas - 66% of Sinn Fein's coverage.
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PostSubject: Re: Lisbon stuff - split from Sibin   Fri Jun 06, 2008 1:37 pm

Cowen on RTE 1 now
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PostSubject: Re: Lisbon stuff - split from Sibin   Fri Jun 06, 2008 1:58 pm

Atticus wrote:
Cowen on RTE 1 now

Shite, missed it. Was he grumpy ?
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PostSubject: Re: Lisbon stuff - split from Sibin   Mon Jun 09, 2008 6:30 pm

The Article numbering in the DoFF White paper (This one) seems to have no correlation to the Article numbering in the Treaty.

Can anyone help me with that please ?
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