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 Anecdotal Evidence

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PostSubject: Re: Anecdotal Evidence   Wed Aug 20, 2008 1:45 pm

Zhou_Enlai wrote:
I have heard of a guy who rents machinery to builders whose work has increased because the guys who have been laid off are renting the machinery to do work directly for home renovators. I can't remember where I heard this. It could have been on this site!

Equally I know of a large supplier of plant machinery who is very much on the rocks, particularly as it is a business which trades in both jurisdictions on the island. The situation in the North is even worse than that down here. The was some element of necessity in the building effort down here but it was hijacked by speculators. Almost the majority of the projects in the North were pure speculation and mostly with money from down here.
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PostSubject: Re: Anecdotal Evidence   Wed Aug 20, 2008 4:46 pm

Zhou_Enlai wrote:
I have heard of a guy who rents machinery to builders whose work has increased because the guys who have been laid off are renting the machinery to do work directly for home renovators. I can't remember where I heard this. It could have been on this site!
While in Mr Hire in Rathfarnham/Nutgrove, I noticed a flyer from two Polish chaps (judging from their names, at least; they may have been Lithuanian) who were advertising as independent contractors. They cited lots of experience here and abroad. Interesting to see that it isn't just Irish people who are doing this, but some of our recent arrivals too.
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PostSubject: Re: Anecdotal Evidence   Wed Aug 20, 2008 5:26 pm

Would you call Nutgrove a separate area? *hmmmm* I wouldn't really. I suppose I might say near Nutgrove.

Is that the place on Nutgrove Avenue near the chipper? Never hired anything from there, used to hire stuff from the place near Rathfarnham Castle on the corner of the village.
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PostSubject: Re: Anecdotal Evidence   Wed Aug 20, 2008 5:28 pm

johnfás wrote:
Zhou_Enlai wrote:
I have heard of a guy who rents machinery to builders whose work has increased because the guys who have been laid off are renting the machinery to do work directly for home renovators. I can't remember where I heard this. It could have been on this site!

Equally I know of a large supplier of plant machinery who is very much on the rocks, particularly as it is a business which trades in both jurisdictions on the island. The situation in the North is even worse than that down here. The was some element of necessity in the building effort down here but it was hijacked by speculators. Almost the majority of the projects in the North were pure speculation and mostly with money from down here.

Has it already been mentioned on this thread that a lot of contstruction machinery is being flogged off to Poland and elsewhere. Big write-offs involved, but off-setable against tax I guess.
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PostSubject: Re: Anecdotal Evidence   Wed Aug 20, 2008 5:31 pm

johnfás wrote:
Would you call Nutgrove a separate area? *hmmmm* I wouldn't really. I suppose I might say near Nutgrove.

Is that the place on Nutgrove Avenue near the chipper? Never hired anything from there, used to hire stuff from the place near Rathfarnham Castle on the corner of the village.
Well, it's on Nutgrove Avenue, and describing it as Rathfarnham just isn't specific enough; it doesn't give any impression of where it is.

It is the place beside the chipper. I got a carpet cleaner from them. €36 incl VAT for a day, plus whatever amount for cleaning solution. It was quite good really, taking a worrying amount of dirt out of the carpets, though it took a fair amount of time and effort.
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PostSubject: Re: Anecdotal Evidence   Wed Aug 20, 2008 5:34 pm

We had a go with a carpet cleaner once but it was rubbish so we got someone in to do it.
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PostSubject: Re: Anecdotal Evidence   Mon Oct 20, 2008 2:42 pm

100 jobs going at Aer Arann.
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PostSubject: Re: Anecdotal Evidence   Mon Oct 20, 2008 11:08 pm

I've also noticed that I haven't seen that many new cars around the place the past few months. You'd see a steady stream of new cars going around the roads up until a few months ago but now there aren't/are very few about.

Is that other people's experience?
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PostSubject: Re: Anecdotal Evidence   Mon Oct 20, 2008 11:16 pm

Ard-Taoiseach wrote:
I've also noticed that I haven't seen that many new cars around the place the past few months. You'd see a steady stream of new cars going around the roads up until a few months ago but now there aren't/are very few about.

Is that other people's experience?

in my experience, when you start to see young people driving new, fun, convertibles, that is the time to sell your house.

After the Thatcher property crash most people drove the same cars for the next five years.
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PostSubject: Re: Anecdotal Evidence   Mon Oct 20, 2008 11:20 pm

Pretty much sums it up, cactus. The amount of mini convertibles down at these exams I was sitting last week was scandelous.
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PostSubject: Re: Anecdotal Evidence   Mon Oct 20, 2008 11:27 pm

johnfás wrote:
Pretty much sums it up, cactus. The amount of mini convertibles down at these exams I was sitting last week was scandelous.

Well you are in a very affluent part of the country. In fact I was watching that, "Coast" programme made by BBC NI and they did a bit about Dublin Bay. The houses displayed in Howth wouldn't look out of place in St. Tropez, Martha's Vineyard or whatever. Very chi chi altogether.
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PostSubject: Re: Anecdotal Evidence   Tue Mar 03, 2009 11:30 pm

I have the pleasure of announcing to you the imminent end to the recession. I was walking down the street today and noticed that there was a very new 09 van parked on the side of the road, and it was very dirty! Surely if it's been that busy over the mere weeks since it has been bought there is significant activity going on out there?
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PostSubject: Re: Anecdotal Evidence   Wed Mar 04, 2009 3:48 am

Ard-Taoiseach wrote:
I have the pleasure of announcing to you the imminent end to the recession. I was walking down the street today and noticed that there was a very new 09 van parked on the side of the road, and it was very dirty! Surely if it's been that busy over the mere weeks since it has been bought there is significant activity going on out there?

I can only assume you are being very sarcastic.
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PostSubject: Re: Anecdotal Evidence   Wed Mar 04, 2009 3:58 am

Dreaded_Estate wrote:
Ard-Taoiseach wrote:
I have the pleasure of announcing to you the imminent end to the recession. I was walking down the street today and noticed that there was a very new 09 van parked on the side of the road, and it was very dirty! Surely if it's been that busy over the mere weeks since it has been bought there is significant activity going on out there?

I can only assume you are being very sarcastic.

He's a Bull. He's been absent a lot over the last while while there was lots of weeping and ghnashing but curiously he has returned very lately maybe there is a bottom to the iseq, dow, silver gold what have you. Maybe the trend now will be a mounting barrage of 09 cars and the return of Paddy and Pavel the breakfast roll builders in their opel nissan renault trafic vans and berlingos.?

I even predict for him in advance, a massive 09 vehicle bubble towards the end of the year but the one that will be prized most furing the year of the great market and budget deficit panic is the one where the reg. number is the same as the lowest lows of the Dow and ISEq and some other major indices.

Try to buy a few now if you have the money - they will be worth at least twice the price next year.
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PostSubject: Re: Anecdotal Evidence   Wed Mar 04, 2009 4:22 am

Auditor #9 wrote:
Dreaded_Estate wrote:
Ard-Taoiseach wrote:
I have the pleasure of announcing to you the imminent end to the recession. I was walking down the street today and noticed that there was a very new 09 van parked on the side of the road, and it was very dirty! Surely if it's been that busy over the mere weeks since it has been bought there is significant activity going on out there?

I can only assume you are being very sarcastic.

He's a Bull. He's been absent a lot over the last while while there was lots of weeping and ghnashing but curiously he has returned very lately maybe there is a bottom to the iseq, dow, silver gold what have you. Maybe the trend now will be a mounting barrage of 09 cars and the return of Paddy and Pavel the breakfast roll builders in their opel nissan renault trafic vans and berlingos.?

I even predict for him in advance, a massive 09 vehicle bubble towards the end of the year but the one that will be prized most furing the year of the great market and budget deficit panic is the one where the reg. number is the same as the lowest lows of the Dow and ISEq and some other major indices.

Try to buy a few now if you have the money - they will be worth at least twice the price next year.

He can't be serious. Ireland is only on the cusp of a massive depression and 1 dirty van isn't going to change that.

GDP is likely to fall by 8% when you combine that 2008 and 2010 we are looking at a fall that could be approaching 15% of GDP.

There has only been a dozen countries since 1900 that have suffered a fall of GDP of that magnitude.

http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12852043

Quote :

The left-hand chart shows The Economist’s ranking of slumps in
developed and emerging economies over the past century. It excludes
those during wartime (both Germany and Japan, for example, saw output
plunge by 50% or more after 1944). The depressions in Germany and
France in the 1930s make it into the top 12, but not that in Britain,
where GDP fell by a relatively modest 6%.
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PostSubject: Re: Anecdotal Evidence   Wed Mar 04, 2009 4:36 am

I don't think if he told Noel Dempsey on Prime Time tonight about the white van that it wouldn't do much for Noel's complexion - I thought he looked shook and was struggling to say we'd get 34 bn out of it this year. The unemployment figures were bad enough for February but were they slowing down ? At some point it will go into a vicious spiral and that 's the danger of deflation - industries will get pared back to the minimum - Toyota, Intel, Microsoft all experiencing bigger trouble than they've ever had before. These luxuries are the first ones to go in a deflation - a serious deflationary period that lasts a year or so. The economy gets pared back ....

People have been posting accounts by Russians and Argentinians on how you can get through the stuff that's ahead - do you think that's scaremongering and over the top ?
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PostSubject: Re: Anecdotal Evidence   Wed Mar 04, 2009 7:40 am

Ard-Taoiseach wrote:
johnfás wrote:
Pretty much sums it up, cactus. The amount of mini convertibles down at these exams I was sitting last week was scandelous.

Well you are in a very affluent part of the country. In fact I was watching that, "Coast" programme made by BBC NI and they did a bit about Dublin Bay. The houses displayed in Howth wouldn't look out of place in St. Tropez, Martha's Vineyard or whatever. Very chi chi altogether.

Some of them no doubt housing scared and desperate people with the words "negative equity" tatooed on their foreheads, gazing at the furniture they may have to sell and repeating the word "Bargaintown" in a zombie-like mantra.
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PostSubject: Re: Anecdotal Evidence   Wed Mar 04, 2009 11:02 am

Auditor #9 wrote:
I don't think if he told Noel Dempsey on Prime Time tonight about the white van that it wouldn't do much for Noel's complexion - I thought he looked shook and was struggling to say we'd get 34 bn out of it this year. The unemployment figures were bad enough for February but were they slowing down ? At some point it will go into a vicious spiral and that 's the danger of deflation - industries will get pared back to the minimum - Toyota, Intel, Microsoft all experiencing bigger trouble than they've ever had before. These luxuries are the first ones to go in a deflation - a serious deflationary period that lasts a year or so. The economy gets pared back ....

People have been posting accounts by Russians and Argentinians on how you can get through the stuff that's ahead - do you think that's scaremongering and over the top ?

Any link Auditor #9?

The Russian's didn't seem to do well out of the free market and privatisation. Life expectancy dropped by over 10 years.
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PostSubject: Re: Anecdotal Evidence   Wed Mar 04, 2009 11:33 am

cactus flower wrote:
Auditor #9 wrote:
I don't think if he told Noel Dempsey on Prime Time tonight about the white van that it wouldn't do much for Noel's complexion - I thought he looked shook and was struggling to say we'd get 34 bn out of it this year. The unemployment figures were bad enough for February but were they slowing down ? At some point it will go into a vicious spiral and that 's the danger of deflation - industries will get pared back to the minimum - Toyota, Intel, Microsoft all experiencing bigger trouble than they've ever had before. These luxuries are the first ones to go in a deflation - a serious deflationary period that lasts a year or so. The economy gets pared back ....

People have been posting accounts by Russians and Argentinians on how you can get through the stuff that's ahead - do you think that's scaremongering and over the top ?

Any link Auditor #9?

The Russian's didn't seem to do well out of the free market and privatisation. Life expectancy dropped by over 10 years.

Link to Prime Time or to those surviving those things ? Squire posted one on suriviving in Argentina and Aragon posted one on surviving in Russia during the economic collapse there.

The question of just how bad things could get here is being ignored on some of these forums and in the media in general - maybe there's no real threat though just a lot of pain ahead, poverty for two to three years and then the order will be restored afterwards after a significant and necessary downwards correction ?

fHowever - what would happen if Multinationals puilled out wholesale because of some law Obama passed? Maybe thankfully we've got Big Pharma as they are not industries which can pull out very quickly. I'm not sure if it's a good idea to think we can rely on MNCs forever though - Obama is making serious noise to lower those deficits by the end of his four years and that might include dealing with companies which have set up offshore. Do we know how secure these companies are here ? There are a ton of Big Pharma companies here - Schering Plough, Roche, Pfizer, Johnson and Johnson, Wyeth and still a bunch of digital companies - intel ibm HP etc.

Perhaps these companies are obliged to stay here for 15 years hence we have plenty of time to extricate ourselves from a a theoretical mess whereby a ton of them would leave all of a sudden. Shouldn't we not only be thinking about this but acting on it now ?
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PostSubject: Re: Anecdotal Evidence   Wed Mar 04, 2009 12:58 pm

We should have been acting on it 10 years ago when competitivity started to fall. Yes, we should be pulling out all the stops to keep the jobs we have. Issues like broadband should be sorted no matter how difficult things are here. Producing the right sort of graduates is also an urgent issue. We should be getting the price of energy down. We've been told these things over and over since the early 2000s.

We should also be looking at new sectors where new jobs are and maximising on any strengths we have.

At the same time, we should prepare to be on an emergency footing, with simply feeding the population, maintaining energy supplies, health and education as the bottom line
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PostSubject: Re: Anecdotal Evidence   Thu Mar 05, 2009 3:56 am

Dreaded_Estate wrote:
Ard-Taoiseach wrote:
I have the pleasure of announcing to you the imminent end to the recession. I was walking down the street today and noticed that there was a very new 09 van parked on the side of the road, and it was very dirty! Surely if it's been that busy over the mere weeks since it has been bought there is significant activity going on out there?

I can only assume you are being very sarcastic.

Well I noticed it, it's evidence of economic activity, but only of the anecdotal kind. I believe the implication of my words is obvious.
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PostSubject: Re: Anecdotal Evidence   Thu Mar 05, 2009 3:20 pm

Ard-Taoiseach wrote:
Dreaded_Estate wrote:
Ard-Taoiseach wrote:
I have the pleasure of announcing to you the imminent end to the recession. I was walking down the street today and noticed that there was a very new 09 van parked on the side of the road, and it was very dirty! Surely if it's been that busy over the mere weeks since it has been bought there is significant activity going on out there?

I can only assume you are being very sarcastic.

Well I noticed it, it's evidence of economic activity, but only of the anecdotal kind. I believe the implication of my words is obvious.

Good work A-T. Not as many graphs and stats as your usual reseach; the dirt on the van is something more tangible. I'm convinced - Champagne Jaeger bombers all round.
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PostSubject: Langan's furniture shop in Liffey Valley getting liquidated   Mon Mar 09, 2009 3:06 pm

Anyone hear about this last week on Joe Duffy?

http://www.askaboutmoney.com/showthread.php?t=106545


Last edited by Auditor #9 on Tue Mar 10, 2009 12:12 pm; edited 1 time in total
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PostSubject: Re: Anecdotal Evidence   Mon Mar 09, 2009 3:31 pm

I heard half the furniture sales places in Dublin had closed, and that some people lost their suites.
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PostSubject: Re: Anecdotal Evidence   Mon Mar 09, 2009 4:20 pm

It was on the front of the Sunday World yesterday. Apparently, from what I read in the shop, Langan and his wife, the daughter of the late Liam Lawlor, have been threatened by the Russian mafia, the Russian mafia having bought up some of the debt, and have been advised by Gardai not to go to Spain. It sounds like tabloid nonsense to me.

Interesting the Lawlor/Liffey Valley connection. I wonder was there a special deal on the rent...
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