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 Anecdotal Evidence

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PostSubject: Anecdotal Evidence   Sat May 17, 2008 11:41 pm

tags: Langan's furniture shop in Liffey Valley getting liquidated

Here is the thread devoted to the fuzzier end of economics, away from the cold exactitude of BOP positions, GDP deflators and inflation-adjusted income levels and the like.

It's about people's own views and news from their own experience.

One of the things which stands out for me, anecdotally, is just how many of my neighbours are getting home improvements done. The amount of skips that have gone through my area in the last 12 months is staggering. There must have been plenty of demand generated by all that activity, and a good level of employment.

Does anyone else have anything to add?


Last edited by Ard-Taoiseach on Wed Jun 11, 2008 3:50 pm; edited 1 time in total
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PostSubject: Re: Anecdotal Evidence   Sat May 17, 2008 11:58 pm

Yes. Housing construction is at less than half the level it was last year. Next year it will be lower.

Instead of trading up, people are staying put and doing up.
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PostSubject: Re: Anecdotal Evidence   Sat May 17, 2008 11:59 pm

A house down the road from me, in most rural Cowen Country has a crane outside - the builders are no longer building estates and are using the crane on a one -off house.
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PostSubject: Re: Anecdotal Evidence   Sun May 18, 2008 12:02 am

I was talking to a builder chap the other day, he was saying that there is an awful lot of home improvement work going on at the moment and most of the people tell him that it is down to their plans of "trading up" being put out to pasture.
The conversation started over the close of Habitat, which some had put down to the fall in new builds. I did wonder about this, who can afford to buy a new house and furnish it with stuff from Habitat, it's fierce expensive.
I would have imagine the reason it closed is because it's in a pretty awful location and a pretty expensive premises too.

The commercial building sector, which has slowed down somewhat (but nowhere near the residental sector) still remains strong.

Perhaps if anything we'll learn our lessons on the way down the slope and do things right the next time.
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PostSubject: Re: Anecdotal Evidence   Sun May 18, 2008 12:03 am

IKEA killed Habitat.
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PostSubject: Re: Anecdotal Evidence   Sun May 18, 2008 12:09 am

Maybe a lot of people were considering having a bit of work done or an extension but were shocked into reality when the found out what tradesmen wanted for a days work. Now that these mighty may have fallen a bit their rates may be more affordable
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PostSubject: Re: Anecdotal Evidence   Sun May 18, 2008 12:15 am

cactus flower wrote:
IKEA killed Habitat.

And the sell the utensils they used for €8 each!
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PostSubject: Re: Anecdotal Evidence   Sun May 18, 2008 12:55 am

Interestingly in the UK Ikea and Habitat are owned by the same company I believe.
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PostSubject: Re: Anecdotal Evidence   Sun May 18, 2008 4:01 am

Fuzzy economics ?

Exactly what I need right now.

And an interest rate cut. (Which I suspect is on the cards anyway)
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PostSubject: Re: Anecdotal Evidence   Mon May 19, 2008 11:35 am

My recent experience of housing is that things were at a standstill from October to February. Things have started moving again. Two friends of mine have recently sold houses and agreed to buy other houses. Another couple have bought a house without selling their existing house. The rent will pay the mortgage even though they only have it a few years. All of them are trading up. I also know of three residential developments where sales are being made. The largest shows this to be a continually increasing trend. Essentially things bottomed out and started moving again. The stamp duty changes have made a difference as as well as people realising that the fundamentals are still relatively strong. Sellers have readjusted their expectations and are giving value to get sales. As long as the banks don't try to make up for past sins by going too much the other way things should keep moving.

I have also heard that we may have reached saturation point in the luxury hotel stakes. Look out for good value for weekends in fancy pants spa hotels.
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PostSubject: Re: Anecdotal Evidence   Mon May 19, 2008 1:01 pm

Called into a provincial shopping mall this morning at about 110.30 a.m. and saw about 6 people there. Staff outnumbered shoppers by about 4 - 1. No one at all in Dunnes.
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PostSubject: Re: Anecdotal Evidence   Mon May 19, 2008 1:05 pm

We have 2 houses on our road doing extensions/renovations at the moment. This morning 3 builders lorries arrived at another house to embark on what looks like some large adventure.

The latest thing around here at the moment seems to be driveways. The amount of people who are tearing up their lush, mature gardens to pour 3 tonnes of gravel down instead is quite ridiculous.
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PostSubject: Re: Anecdotal Evidence   Mon May 19, 2008 1:17 pm

I hope they all have planning permission for those new driveways!
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PostSubject: Re: Anecdotal Evidence   Mon May 19, 2008 1:20 pm

Do you need planning permission to redo a driveway? I wouldn't have a clue... They're all getting rid of grass and shrubbery and putting down those yellow stones with a few potted plants here and there. There is one house went all out and concreted their front garden, looks like a bloody carpark.
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PostSubject: Re: Anecdotal Evidence   Mon May 19, 2008 1:20 pm

Zhou_Enlai wrote:
I hope they all have planning permission for those new driveways!

Shocked You need PP for a driveway ?? Oh-Oh.
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PostSubject: Re: Anecdotal Evidence   Mon May 19, 2008 1:24 pm

You need it in most cases. You need to look at the original planning permission. In any event, I think you need it if you relocate or widen the entrance. People should definitely talk to an architect before they do it. Builders may tell you that a retention permission will be granted but relying on that is a very bad idea.
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PostSubject: Re: Anecdotal Evidence   Mon May 19, 2008 1:24 pm

You don't need planning permission for a gardening unless you raise the level more that a metre. You need permission for a new entrance, or for converting your front garden into a car park, but not for altering your driveway or landscaping.

I agree with Zhou about checking the conditions of your permission and planning drawings.

This is not professional advice. Check the DoE website and if in any doubt, ring your local authority planning department who will probably give you an answer - an architect or engineer could give an opinion too. (self modded - cf)


Last edited by cactus flower on Mon May 19, 2008 2:38 pm; edited 1 time in total
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PostSubject: Re: Anecdotal Evidence   Mon May 19, 2008 1:26 pm

What about altering your entrance? because they've got rid of grass so they can fit 2/3 cars in front of their houses most of them have also widened their gates by knocking down and rebuilding pillars.

Doesn't bother me too much but I do think it detracts from the road as most houses used to have good mature gardens, with plantings which had grown up over 30/40 years or so.
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PostSubject: Re: Anecdotal Evidence   Mon May 19, 2008 2:11 pm

I am afraid I cannot answer definitively. I only know that a lot of people do these works without checking with their architect as to whether it is allowed.
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PostSubject: Re: Anecdotal Evidence   Mon May 19, 2008 2:40 pm

johnfás wrote:
What about altering your entrance? because they've got rid of grass so they can fit 2/3 cars in front of their houses most of them have also widened their gates by knocking down and rebuilding pillars.

Doesn't bother me too much but I do think it detracts from the road as most houses used to have good mature gardens, with plantings which had grown up over 30/40 years or so.

This sounds to me as if it probably required planning permission, your local authority planning section would be able to answer this. I wonder if you are in a conservation area or if the houses are on the local authority list of Protected Structures - that would make a difference too.
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PostSubject: Re: Anecdotal Evidence   Mon May 19, 2008 2:51 pm

Refused by Dun Laoghaire Co Co.

DoE Leaflet - When Do I Need Planning Permission?

We are off topic a bit, so I won't post any more on this issue on this thread unless you'd like a new thread started.
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PostSubject: Re: Anecdotal Evidence   Tue May 20, 2008 12:29 am

Zhou_Enlai wrote:
My recent experience of housing is that things were at a standstill from October to February. Things have started moving again. Two friends of mine have recently sold houses and agreed to buy other houses. Another couple have bought a house without selling their existing house. The rent will pay the mortgage even though they only have it a few years. All of them are trading up. I also know of three residential developments where sales are being made. The largest shows this to be a continually increasing trend. Essentially things bottomed out and started moving again. The stamp duty changes have made a difference as as well as people realising that the fundamentals are still relatively strong. Sellers have readjusted their expectations and are giving value to get sales. As long as the banks don't try to make up for past sins by going too much the other way things should keep moving.

I have also heard that we may have reached saturation point in the luxury hotel stakes. Look out for good value for weekends in fancy pants spa hotels.

Great info, Zhou_Enlai, would you keep us posted on your future observations on the movements in the property market? You seem to be the man in the know. Many thanks for the above. I'm glad to hear that things are moving in the property market, it certainly seems that way with the number of successful launches in the past 3 months.

I also heard that Hanover Quay sold quite a good few flats in their launch a week ago. There was a pretty strong reception to the launch of property.
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PostSubject: Re: Anecdotal Evidence   Tue May 27, 2008 6:25 pm

I was up in Liffey Valley to see Indiana Jones(verdict: 3 stars), and Easons and Dynasty were both getting significantly revamped and it was pretty busy up there.
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PostSubject: Re: Anecdotal Evidence   Sun Jun 01, 2008 2:38 am

I promised youngdan that I'd deliver a good news story economically, and this is it: my uncle, who had about 2 months ago been made redundant, has, wait for it, found a job again! He'll be starting in the next fortnight and he'll be on good wages.
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PostSubject: Re: Anecdotal Evidence   Sun Jun 01, 2008 12:03 pm

Received letters from 2 metalwork suppliers on Friday confirming price increases of 8 - 8.6% from July. That's on top of 4% increase in the New Year.

Transportation costs up approx. 4 -5% in the last few months.

Throw in currency depreciation, with the Euro slaughtering sterling

... zippedy-do-da!! Crying or Very sad ....
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