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 Economic Crisis: A Cyclical Event or Something More Sinister

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PostSubject: Economic Crisis: A Cyclical Event or Something More Sinister   Sun May 04, 2008 10:01 pm

here. It's not a clean break but... - Mod>


youngdan wrote:
Ibis, you question if the elite have concluded that the Earth can not sustain the growing population. I thought that everyone has concluded that the Earth can not sustain a growing population

I am not arguing with you about this, youngdan. The Pentagon predict and are undoubtedly preparing for more resource wars and there are no great signs of preparation to rescue and relocate the millions who are living just above sea level. If we want something different to Hurricane Katrina x 100,000 we will need to make sure it happens. So far as I can see, the only body that might be capable of co-ordinating this is the UN.


Last edited by Kate P on Mon May 05, 2008 1:43 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : Splitting thread)
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PostSubject: Re: Economic Crisis: A Cyclical Event or Something More Sinister   Sun May 04, 2008 10:24 pm

youngdan wrote:
The industry is gone. The high wages are gone. the military is depleted, the national guards are ruined, the economy is not dominant it is broke. Everything that you say makes absolutely feck all sense has already happened. That is why more people here understand what is happening by the day.

Sorry, but this raging conspiracy theory of yours doesn't stand up to scrutiny at the best of times, and not at all when you start talking about economics.

The US economy isn't the basket case you make it out to be, and has endured far worse recessions, and depressions, than the so called recession it is currently flirting with.

Your sweeping generalisations about an economy that is infinitely more complex than even the most seasoned economists can understand doesn't do much for the credibility of your argument.
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PostSubject: Re: Economic Crisis: A Cyclical Event or Something More Sinister   Sun May 04, 2008 11:29 pm

Of couse the economy is a basket case. Why do you think they are pumping a trillion dollars of bailouts into the economy. Why do you think they are having inter meeting emergency rate cuts. The US and everybody in it is broke. And what's more this is just the beginning. It is past tense and it is beginning in Ireland.
Cactus, the truth is that nobody in government cares about the people displaced by Katrina. It is just another example of people not believing their eyes. Bush and Clinton could not care less if they all died tomorrow.
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PostSubject: Re: Economic Crisis: A Cyclical Event or Something More Sinister   Mon May 05, 2008 12:45 am

This is middle class America as shown on the local NY tv http://www.vloggingtheapocalypse.com/viewVideo.php?video_id=539&title=NEW_YORK__MANY_TURNING_TO_FOOD_PANTRIES_FOR_HELP&vpkey=ab5286590b. Land of the free Home of the Hungry. Is this more conspiracy theory Seinfeld because it is headed your way.
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PostSubject: Re: Economic Crisis: A Cyclical Event or Something More Sinister   Mon May 05, 2008 12:49 am

youngdan wrote:
This is middle class America as shown on the local NY tv http://www.vloggingtheapocalypse.com/viewVideo.php?video_id=539&title=NEW_YORK__MANY_TURNING_TO_FOOD_PANTRIES_FOR_HELP&vpkey=ab5286590b. Land of the free Home of the Hungry. Is this more conspiracy theory Seinfeld because it is headed your way.

Couldn't open the video, youngdan - would you describe it?
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PostSubject: Re: Economic Crisis: A Cyclical Event or Something More Sinister   Mon May 05, 2008 1:00 am

youngdan wrote:
Of couse the economy is a basket case.

Yes its really knackered, and much more so than at any time in US history.




youngdan wrote:

Why do you think they are pumping a trillion dollars of bailouts into the economy.

Who has pumped what and where?

youngdan wrote:

Why do you think they are having inter meeting emergency rate cuts.

Central bank meets and cuts/increases interest rates. Yes, its truely bizarre.
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PostSubject: Re: Economic Crisis: A Cyclical Event or Something More Sinister   Mon May 05, 2008 1:17 am

It is a local station detailing the plight of a Long Island family of 4. The wife was recently laid off from a mortage related job and her husband works for the government. When they got an unexpected bill she did not have money for food and went to a food pantry. It can also be noted that the pantry is a private charity. It says 200000 people in the city are in need of help but are too proud to beg. I believe a large percentage of what appear to be middle class people are actually close to calamity.
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PostSubject: Re: Economic Crisis: A Cyclical Event or Something More Sinister   Mon May 05, 2008 1:20 am

Is that the best you can do Seinfeld. Have you read a financial page of any newspaper in the last 8 months
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PostSubject: Re: Economic Crisis: A Cyclical Event or Something More Sinister   Mon May 05, 2008 2:43 am

youngdan wrote:
Is that the best you can do Seinfeld. Have you read a financial page of any newspaper in the last 8 months

You see, I'm possibly a little older than you, and remember things like stagflation, oil crises (where people had to q to buy gas), reagonomics, voodoo economics etc etc, and realise that the current woes of the US economy are cyclical (periods of low growth tend to follow periods of high growth), and not the symption of some vast political conspiracy.

Its is true that the US has shed heavier industries, but all economies change over time. By your logic, the fact that the US economy is no longer dependent on cotton, tobacco and potatoes is indicative of impending doom.
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PostSubject: Re: Economic Crisis: A Cyclical Event or Something More Sinister   Mon May 05, 2008 2:45 am

seinfeld wrote:
youngdan wrote:
Is that the best you can do Seinfeld. Have you read a financial page of any newspaper in the last 8 months

You see, I'm possibly a little older than you, and remember things like stagflation, oil crises (where people had to q to buy gas), reagonomics, voodoo economics etc etc, and realise that the current woes of the US economy are cyclical (periods of low growth tend to follow periods of high growth), and not the symption of some vast political conspiracy.

Its is true that the US has shed heavier industries, but all economies change over time. By your logic, the fact that the US economy is no longer dependent on cotton, tobacco and potatoes is indicative of impending doom.

I'm sure there was an olddan around to make that point.
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PostSubject: Re: Economic Crisis: A Cyclical Event or Something More Sinister   Mon May 05, 2008 2:46 am

seinfeld wrote:
youngdan wrote:
Is that the best you can do Seinfeld. Have you read a financial page of any newspaper in the last 8 months

You see, I'm possibly a little older than you, and remember things like stagflation, oil crises (where people had to q to buy gas), reagonomics, voodoo economics etc etc, and realise that the current woes of the US economy are cyclical (periods of low growth tend to follow periods of high growth), and not the symption of some vast political conspiracy.

I think youngdan's basically your age as well, from my extensive reading of his posts. How can you remember stagflation when that was a phenomenon of the Seventied? You were a child through the Seventies!
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PostSubject: Re: Economic Crisis: A Cyclical Event or Something More Sinister   Mon May 05, 2008 2:52 am

Ard-Taoiseach wrote:
seinfeld wrote:
youngdan wrote:
Is that the best you can do Seinfeld. Have you read a financial page of any newspaper in the last 8 months

You see, I'm possibly a little older than you, and remember things like stagflation, oil crises (where people had to q to buy gas), reagonomics, voodoo economics etc etc, and realise that the current woes of the US economy are cyclical (periods of low growth tend to follow periods of high growth), and not the symption of some vast political conspiracy.

I think youngdan's basically your age as well, from my extensive reading of his posts. How can you remember stagflation when that was a phenomenon of the Seventied? You were a child through the Seventies!

Pocket money.
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PostSubject: Re: Economic Crisis: A Cyclical Event or Something More Sinister   Mon May 05, 2008 2:55 am

ibis wrote:
Ard-Taoiseach wrote:
seinfeld wrote:
youngdan wrote:
Is that the best you can do Seinfeld. Have you read a financial page of any newspaper in the last 8 months

You see, I'm possibly a little older than you, and remember things like stagflation, oil crises (where people had to q to buy gas), reagonomics, voodoo economics etc etc, and realise that the current woes of the US economy are cyclical (periods of low growth tend to follow periods of high growth), and not the symption of some vast political conspiracy.

I think youngdan's basically your age as well, from my extensive reading of his posts. How can you remember stagflation when that was a phenomenon of the Seventied? You were a child through the Seventies!

Pocket money.

Maybe, but I was quite ignorant of the economic affairs of the nation in my early to mid childhood.
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PostSubject: Re: Economic Crisis: A Cyclical Event or Something More Sinister   Mon May 05, 2008 2:56 am

ibis wrote:
Ard-Taoiseach wrote:
seinfeld wrote:
youngdan wrote:
Is that the best you can do Seinfeld. Have you read a financial page of any newspaper in the last 8 months

You see, I'm possibly a little older than you, and remember things like stagflation, oil crises (where people had to q to buy gas), reagonomics, voodoo economics etc etc, and realise that the current woes of the US economy are cyclical (periods of low growth tend to follow periods of high growth), and not the symption of some vast political conspiracy.

I think youngdan's basically your age as well, from my extensive reading of his posts. How can you remember stagflation when that was a phenomenon of the Seventied? You were a child through the Seventies!

Pocket money.

Indeed.

A bag of Taytos was 3p for, like, forever, and when they went up to 4p, I thought it has something to do with the wrath of a vengeful God (at least that's what I was taught in school).
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PostSubject: Re: Economic Crisis: A Cyclical Event or Something More Sinister   Mon May 05, 2008 2:58 am

Ard-Taoiseach wrote:
ibis wrote:
Ard-Taoiseach wrote:
seinfeld wrote:
youngdan wrote:
Is that the best you can do Seinfeld. Have you read a financial page of any newspaper in the last 8 months

You see, I'm possibly a little older than you, and remember things like stagflation, oil crises (where people had to q to buy gas), reagonomics, voodoo economics etc etc, and realise that the current woes of the US economy are cyclical (periods of low growth tend to follow periods of high growth), and not the symption of some vast political conspiracy.

I think youngdan's basically your age as well, from my extensive reading of his posts. How can you remember stagflation when that was a phenomenon of the Seventied? You were a child through the Seventies!

Pocket money.

Maybe, but I was quite ignorant of the economic affairs of the nation in my early to mid childhood.

I know the price of things went up very rapidly. If you were in the UK (I was) there was a lot of discussion about these things - even as a kid you couldn't miss it (also the strikes and blackouts made things exciting).
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PostSubject: Re: Economic Crisis: A Cyclical Event or Something More Sinister   Mon May 05, 2008 3:00 am

ibis wrote:


I know the price of things went up very rapidly. If you were in the UK (I was) there was a lot of discussion about these things - even as a kid you couldn't miss it (also the strikes and blackouts made things exciting).

I see. Point taken and apologies for any slurs on seinfeld's intelligence and breadth of perspective.
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PostSubject: Re: Economic Crisis: A Cyclical Event or Something More Sinister   Mon May 05, 2008 10:57 am

Regardless of age we can all remember the ECB injecting 500 billion Euro because it was just a few months ago. Business cycles come and go but things are different now. The industrial jobs are gone for good. Now the construction has dropped to the level of 1970 and it will get worse. Any information job that can be done on a computer overseas is going. I recently read that x-rays are read by radiologists overseas and the opinion is zipped back. When the states and towns are forced to start layoff due to their budgets being busted the crisis will be at hand. The trade deals, the biofuel subsidies, the environmentalists that have prevented drilling, nuclear power and wind farms,has left us screwed. While driving home I was listening to BBC news and the President of Senegal was calling for the abolition of the FAO, he says it is responsible for the food shortages. He has figured it out. The scare talk of global warming is just that. They talk the talk while they fly round in jets and drive in reinforced SUVs. Same thing with guns, Hillary has been surrounded by armed guards sinse Bill was elected governor of Arkansas at the age of 30.
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PostSubject: Re: Economic Crisis: A Cyclical Event or Something More Sinister   Mon May 05, 2008 1:02 pm

youngdan wrote:
Regardless of age we can all remember the ECB injecting 500 billion Euro because it was just a few months ago.

It was €348b. It was a loan to 390 EU banks to at the height of the credit crunch to reduce short-term interbank lending rates in the run up to Xmas.

The ECB has engaged in similar activity in 2000 and on a number of occasions between 2004 and 2006. The amount alloated in Dec 2007 was the largest short-term loan given to EU banks to date, but the call for loans from banks was actually smaller than in 2000 or 2004.

This is kinda why Central Banks exist. You're familiar with the phrase: 'lender of last resort'?
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PostSubject: Re: Economic Crisis: A Cyclical Event or Something More Sinister   Mon May 05, 2008 1:07 pm

youngdan wrote:
That is not true because not only do I not believe in global warming but I believe the globalists are using the fear generated by global warming to give the likes of the UN laws to mandate us. Now when the effects of the trade deals are coming home to roost they want to ignore them. It all ties together and I am still waiting to be told where the money goes if Ireland is fined 200 million Euros for exceeding it's carbon allowance. The best I have seen is some poster on P.ie saying it does not matter where the money goes. Now they want us to believe that warming has stopped till 2015. Who can believe this .

youngdan, if you wan't to look for a much better conspiracy theory than that why not look at the funding of climate change sceptics by ExxonMobil, the suppression of climate change reports by George Bush, or the open omission by the IPCC of "worst case" projections from their reports for fear of scaring the horses?

Big money wants a free hand to carry on dirty manufacture and big politics don't want populations up in arms demanding that we do the necessary in terms of energy use and mitigation of impacts. Dirty manufacture is more profitable. You and I don't get the profit, we just get the environmental damage. They have succeeded in selling this to some people as a "freedom" issue just as they sold the Iraq war as a freedom issue.

LINK
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PostSubject: Re: Economic Crisis: A Cyclical Event or Something More Sinister   Mon May 05, 2008 1:20 pm

seinfeld wrote:
youngdan wrote:
Regardless of age we can all remember the ECB injecting 500 billion Euro because it was just a few months ago.

It was €348b. It was a loan to 390 EU banks to at the height of the credit crunch to reduce short-term interbank lending rates in the run up to Xmas.

The ECB has engaged in similar activity in 2000 and on a number of occasions between 2004 and 2006. The amount alloated in Dec 2007 was the largest short-term loan given to EU banks to date, but the call for loans from banks was actually smaller than in 2000 or 2004.

This is kinda why Central Banks exist. You're familiar with the phrase: 'lender of last resort'?

I am not a New World Order person Seinfeld, but I don't think what is happening now is the same as the 1970s. There is a shift in production to the east - read Edo's excellent ' insider ' posts that Auditor has gathered on another thread here. We are simultaneously dealing with food and fuel inflation and the costs of trying to deal with climate change mitigation and avoidance.
Ireland is a very small country. We only have to get one or two things right and everyone is working; I think that if we galvanise ourselves and invest in our people, in broadband and in energy self-sufficiency not in tarmacadam we can solve a lot.

The US is very different. There is a crash of people's hopes and expectations as well as flight of manufacture. A lot of people in the US already work 2 or 3 jobs to make ends meet and have half the holidays we do. They have been living on credit individually and as a State. Hundreds of thousands are losing their homes. They don't have the safety nets we do. The system has failed them.

This is none of it to do with climate change. Shall we ask Auditor if he can do a bit of surgery and put it into an economy thread?
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PostSubject: Re: Economic Crisis: A Cyclical Event or Something More Sinister   Mon May 05, 2008 1:28 pm

cactus flower wrote:
seinfeld wrote:
youngdan wrote:
Regardless of age we can all remember the ECB injecting 500 billion Euro because it was just a few months ago.

It was €348b. It was a loan to 390 EU banks to at the height of the credit crunch to reduce short-term interbank lending rates in the run up to Xmas.

The ECB has engaged in similar activity in 2000 and on a number of occasions between 2004 and 2006. The amount alloated in Dec 2007 was the largest short-term loan given to EU banks to date, but the call for loans from banks was actually smaller than in 2000 or 2004.

This is kinda why Central Banks exist. You're familiar with the phrase: 'lender of last resort'?

I am not a New World Order person Seinfeld, but I don't think what is happening now is the same as the 1970s.

I'm not saying its like the 1970s either. I'm just saying that the world economy moves in cycles, and that the current correction we are seeing is part of an economic cycle and not part of a political conspiracy.
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PostSubject: Re: Economic Crisis: A Cyclical Event or Something More Sinister   Mon May 05, 2008 2:07 pm

I would agree with you, except I think a wheel is dropping off the cycle.
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PostSubject: Re: Economic Crisis: A Cyclical Event or Something More Sinister   Mon May 05, 2008 2:54 pm

cactus flower wrote:
I would agree with you, except I think a wheel is dropping off the cycle.

It isn't (not globally, at least). Current economic conditions have been forseen for years.

Check out the various stock market indices. They're depressed relative to the last few years, but there haven't been any seismic changes, and the long-term trend is still positive.

The negative economic impact of the US housing market correction is being offset by higher demand for commodities and food, energy (new and old) and an ever burgeoning services sector.

The big unknown is the price of oil. While the Fed continues to slash US interest rates to stimulate growth, the dollar remains weak, which insulates the rest of us from high oil prices.

If US inflation shifts a gear, and/or consumer spending re-emerges, then we may have problems, but again, these will be offset by higher demand for imports and services in the US.

None of this is new; its just being spun that way by the media because it makes good copy.
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PostSubject: Re: Economic Crisis: A Cyclical Event or Something More Sinister   Mon May 05, 2008 3:29 pm

cactus flower wrote:
youngdan wrote:
That is not true because not only do I not believe in global warming but I believe the globalists are using the fear generated by global warming to give the likes of the UN laws to mandate us. Now when the effects of the trade deals are coming home to roost they want to ignore them. It all ties together and I am still waiting to be told where the money goes if Ireland is fined 200 million Euros for exceeding it's carbon allowance. The best I have seen is some poster on P.ie saying it does not matter where the money goes. Now they want us to believe that warming has stopped till 2015. Who can believe this .

youngdan, if you wan't to look for a much better conspiracy theory than that why not look at the funding of climate change sceptics by ExxonMobil, the suppression of climate change reports by George Bush, or the open omission by the IPCC of "worst case" projections from their reports for fear of scaring the horses?

Big money wants a free hand to carry on dirty manufacture and big politics don't want populations up in arms demanding that we do the necessary in terms of energy use and mitigation of impacts. Dirty manufacture is more profitable. You and I don't get the profit, we just get the environmental damage. They have succeeded in selling this to some people as a "freedom" issue just as they sold the Iraq war as a freedom issue.

LINK

The other thing governments don't want is to raise taxes. I find it bizarre that this crops up as a central plank in such theories. Politicians like to cut taxes, because it gets them reelected, and because in the case of businesses it makes the location/country. Raising taxes happens because politicians have either promised something expensive, wasted what money they have, or are on the wrong part of a business cycle. A major plank in the referendum No campaign is that Lisbon will "force us to raise taxes".

However, it is never possible to disprove a conspiracy theory, since everything can be explained away as part of the conspiracy - "they just want you to think that", or "they're concealing the reality". If "official statistics" are all "lies", then one can only "believe the evidence of one's own eyes", even if that "evidence" is statistically meaningless.
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PostSubject: Re: Economic Crisis: A Cyclical Event or Something More Sinister   Mon May 05, 2008 6:01 pm

The ECB lent 348 billion, the bank of England was 50billion pounds, the Swiss were more, who can keep track, the bottom line was that if they did not the system would have failed completely which almost happened when Sterns had to be given to Morgan on a Sunday because had they waited till Monday the overseas markets would have already crashed overnight. My opinion is that the last business cycle that could have sorted itself out was 1991 but Greenspan dropped the short term rates low, he does not control long term rates and they staying high allowed the banks to reliquidify. The resulting boom was the result of Greenspan. The federal budget improved as defense spending was cut by Clinton and increased revenues from taxes. After that we had one bubble from different carry trades after another. To make a very long story short, there is a tidal wave of foreclosures coming and hopefully the central bankers will be sent packing
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