Irish Economy and Budget Watch / / /Emergency Budget Announced for April 7th

Have you any idea where the other 16 billion is coming to come from or is it 14bn ???? Should we borrow much more ???

The trouble is we're depending on the future and some upturn - that may not come lads.

In that case there will be even more cuts - severe ones on all public services unless we bottle that.

If that upturn doesn't come, the whole landscape could change dramatically. I'd love to know where or what the source of this upturn will be; if there is one in 2010/11, you can be guaranteed it won't be a patch on the Boom and you can bet that it won't be really effective for a year or two after that.

Higher income levy for higher income earners being anticpated as a Dáil measure later on - on Newstalk right now ...

tonys wrote:

Hermes wrote:

This is still only the beginning. The majority of the public still have their heads in the sand because they've yet to experience the full brunt of what's coming. Or even the force of what's happened already. Credit delays the pain. That's all it's good for.

Things will change over the next few months. Wait until people start dying, for lack of basic medicines and healthcare. Wait for the food and fuel shortages.

We're well up shit creek and all we have are gobshites, all rowing against each other. It's not just FF, it's the whole bloody lot of them.

Post civil war Ireland will look like a picnic compared to this.

Capitalism and this mockery of a democracy are going down the plug hole, and the bastards will not go gentle into that good night.

They'll rage. But they do not understand rage. They will come to understand it nonetheless.

Not going to happen.
There will be no food or fuel shortages nor lack of basic medicines and healthcare and no one is going to die where we can help it because of this situation. We are spending far too much, particularly on the public service, but the room is there to pull that back, people, partcularly the public service unions & their members just need to be made to understand what needs to be done, we're nearly there as it stands. There will be kicking & screaming yet, but in the end they'll come along, they'll have no choice.

I admire your confidence. But my observation allows for the compliance of the social partners/lapdogs. It's not the solution it's the precursor.

dp

Auditor #9 wrote:

Have you any idea where the other 16 billion is coming to come from or is it 14bn ???? Should we borrow much more ??? ..

I do.
Years 2 to 3
2.5 -3 billion, increases in income tax/savings on services, 2.5 - 3 billion new property + carbon tax, 3 - 4 billion increases in corporation tax, ending of tax loop holes, .6 - 1 billion from the banks. total = 8.6 - 11 billion.
years 4 & 5
Hoped for 10% increase in overall tax take due to increased economic activity = 5 billion extra while holding overall costs, inc. public service wage bill, at current level.

Hermes wrote:

tonys wrote:

Hermes wrote:

This is still only the beginning. The majority of the public still have their heads in the sand because they've yet to experience the full brunt of what's coming. Or even the force of what's happened already. Credit delays the pain. That's all it's good for.

Things will change over the next few months. Wait until people start dying, for lack of basic medicines and healthcare. Wait for the food and fuel shortages.

We're well up shit creek and all we have are gobshites, all rowing against each other. It's not just FF, it's the whole bloody lot of them.

Post civil war Ireland will look like a picnic compared to this.

Capitalism and this mockery of a democracy are going down the plug hole, and the bastards will not go gentle into that good night.

They'll rage. But they do not understand rage. They will come to understand it nonetheless.

Not going to happen.
There will be no food or fuel shortages nor lack of basic medicines and healthcare and no one is going to die where we can help it because of this situation. We are spending far too much, particularly on the public service, but the room is there to pull that back, people, partcularly the public service unions & their members just need to be made to understand what needs to be done, we're nearly there as it stands. There will be kicking & screaming yet, but in the end they'll come along, they'll have no choice.

I admire your confidence. But my observation allows for the compliance of the social partners/lapdogs. It's not the solution it's the precursor.

Wholeheartedly agree.

Aragon wrote:

Hermes wrote:

tonys wrote:

Hermes wrote:

This is still only the beginning. The majority of the public still have their heads in the sand because they've yet to experience the full brunt of what's coming. Or even the force of what's happened already. Credit delays the pain. That's all it's good for.

Things will change over the next few months. Wait until people start dying, for lack of basic medicines and healthcare. Wait for the food and fuel shortages.

We're well up shit creek and all we have are gobshites, all rowing against each other. It's not just FF, it's the whole bloody lot of them.

Post civil war Ireland will look like a picnic compared to this.

Capitalism and this mockery of a democracy are going down the plug hole, and the bastards will not go gentle into that good night.

They'll rage. But they do not understand rage. They will come to understand it nonetheless.

Not going to happen.
There will be no food or fuel shortages nor lack of basic medicines and healthcare and no one is going to die where we can help it because of this situation. We are spending far too much, particularly on the public service, but the room is there to pull that back, people, partcularly the public service unions & their members just need to be made to understand what needs to be done, we're nearly there as it stands. There will be kicking & screaming yet, but in the end they'll come along, they'll have no choice.

I admire your confidence. But my observation allows for the compliance of the social partners/lapdogs. It's not the solution it's the precursor.

Wholeheartedly agree.

On the other hand if the social partners take your collective view then indeed we could be headed for the shitter. Even then I would hope the 1.6 million workers & their families not represented by the unions but being dragged towards the shitter anyway would let their voices be heard and thereby bring the unions & others to their senses.

tonys wrote:

Auditor #9 wrote:

Have you any idea where the other 16 billion is coming to come from or is it 14bn ???? Should we borrow much more ??? ..

I do.
Years 2 to 3
2.5 -3 billion, increases in income tax, 2.5 - 3 billion new property + carbon tax, 3 - 4 billion increases in corporation tax, ending of tax loop holes, .6 - 1 billion from the banks. total = 8.6 - 11 billion.
years 4 & 5
Hoped for 10% increase in overall tax take due to increased economic activity = 5 billion extra while holding overall costs, inc. public service wage bill, at current level.

Thanks

This isn't factoring in new borrowing which we might have to do if the tax take falls even more, or if we take on bank liabilities that need to be serviced (?)

The proprty and carbon taxes are immense that's over the three years isn't it? Do you know how much the corporation tax will rise (screw them big style as they're leaving for America - is this why there's secrecy over when they'll leave?)

There's an exchequer report out at 4.30 today I hear and the tax take is down....

tonys wrote:

Hermes wrote:

This is still only the beginning. The majority of the public still have their heads in the sand because they've yet to experience the full brunt of what's coming. Or even the force of what's happened already. Credit delays the pain. That's all it's good for.

Things will change over the next few months. Wait until people start dying, for lack of basic medicines and healthcare. Wait for the food and fuel shortages.

We're well up shit creek and all we have are gobshites, all rowing against each other. It's not just FF, it's the whole bloody lot of them.

Post civil war Ireland will look like a picnic compared to this.

Capitalism and this mockery of a democracy are going down the plug hole, and the bastards will not go gentle into that good night.

They'll rage. But they do not understand rage. They will come to understand it nonetheless.

Not going to happen.
There will be no food or fuel shortages nor lack of basic medicines and healthcare and no one is going to die where we can help it because of this situation. We are spending far too much, particularly on the public service, but the room is there to pull that back, people, partcularly the public service unions & their members just need to be made to understand what needs to be done, we're nearly there as it stands. There will be kicking & screaming yet, but in the end they'll come along, they'll have no choice.

Tony, you are either living in an illusion or you are seeking to encourage others to. Did you read this, for example:

Quote :

Proposals circulating at the partnership talks contain at best only peripheral ideas on repairing the real (non-financial) side of our economy. Yet the magnitude of the debt problem facing these core sectors is simply staggering and dwarfs that of the banks.

Quote :

According to the latest figures from the International Monetary Fund and the Bank for International Settlements, total gross indebtedness of Irish residents, that is the State, the banks and the non-financial personal and corporate sector, stood at a gargantuan €1,671 billion at the end of 2008. This is over eight times national income, and compares to a mere €504 billion at the end of 2002 and €970 billion at the end of 2005. The greater part of the rise in this debt arises not from the State – its debt merely doubled from €27 billion in the fourth quarter of 2005 to €51.2 billion by the third quarter of 2008 (or €77.1 billion if the monetary authority liabilities are added) – but from the private sector.

The debt owed by the private sector rose from €876 billion to €1,594 billion over the period. Much of this represents real borrowings by Irish people and companies. As of September 2008, €591.2 billion in debt securities was outstanding by non-financial domestic companies – up from €473.6 billion in December 2006. Overall foreign claims on the Irish economy stood at a gargantuan seven times our national income. In absolute terms, this mountain of debt is one-sixth of the USA’s and greater than that owed by Japan.

On any reasonable metric, Irish households and indigenous companies are the most indebted in the entire EU. Put more starkly, when it comes to overall solvency prospects for Irish consumers and small and medium enterprises, we are ranking dead last across Europe.

Using IMF data and factoring in our liabilities arising from foreign direct investment, Ireland’s total personal and corporate indebtedness, net of borrowings by international and domestic financial institutions based here and public sector debt, stood at €790.8 billion (more than five times our GNP) at the end of 2008.

Would you lend Ireland money, if you had better options? Borrowing will rise in cost and/or borrowings will completely dry up. If you want to know what happens next, look at the IMF and EU terms applied to Iceland and Latvia.

The slush fund with which Fianna Fail and FG have traditionally bought our votes has run dry.

I have it on good authority that the State are making a great budgetary cut by heavily dragging its heels on paying for legal work which has already been carried out.

cactus flower wrote:

tonys wrote:

Hermes wrote:

This is still only the beginning. The majority of the public still have their heads in the sand because they've yet to experience the full brunt of what's coming. Or even the force of what's happened already. Credit delays the pain. That's all it's good for.

Things will change over the next few months. Wait until people start dying, for lack of basic medicines and healthcare. Wait for the food and fuel shortages.

We're well up shit creek and all we have are gobshites, all rowing against each other. It's not just FF, it's the whole bloody lot of them.

Post civil war Ireland will look like a picnic compared to this.

Capitalism and this mockery of a democracy are going down the plug hole, and the bastards will not go gentle into that good night.

They'll rage. But they do not understand rage. They will come to understand it nonetheless.

Not going to happen.
There will be no food or fuel shortages nor lack of basic medicines and healthcare and no one is going to die where we can help it because of this situation. We are spending far too much, particularly on the public service, but the room is there to pull that back, people, partcularly the public service unions & their members just need to be made to understand what needs to be done, we're nearly there as it stands. There will be kicking & screaming yet, but in the end they'll come along, they'll have no choice.

Tony, you are either living in an illusion or you are seeking to encourage others to. Did you read this, for example:
Proposals circulating at the partnership talks contain at best only peripheral ideas on repairing the real (non-financial) side of our economy. Yet the magnitude of the debt problem facing these core sectors is simply staggering and dwarfs that of the banks.

Quote :

According to the latest figures from the International Monetary Fund and the Bank for International Settlements, total gross indebtedness of Irish residents, that is the State, the banks and the non-financial personal and corporate sector, stood at a gargantuan €1,671 billion at the end of 2008. This is over eight times national income, and compares to a mere €504 billion at the end of 2002 and €970 billion at the end of 2005. The greater part of the rise in this debt arises not from the State – its debt merely doubled from €27 billion in the fourth quarter of 2005 to €51.2 billion by the third quarter of 2008 (or €77.1 billion if the monetary authority liabilities are added) – but from the private sector.

The debt owed by the private sector rose from €876 billion to €1,594 billion over the period. Much of this represents real borrowings by Irish people and companies. As of September 2008, €591.2 billion in debt securities was outstanding by non-financial domestic companies – up from €473.6 billion in December 2006. Overall foreign claims on the Irish economy stood at a gargantuan seven times our national income. In absolute terms, this mountain of debt is one-sixth of the USA’s and greater than that owed by Japan.

On any reasonable metric, Irish households and indigenous companies are the most indebted in the entire EU. Put more starkly, when it comes to overall solvency prospects for Irish consumers and small and medium enterprises, we are ranking dead last across Europe.

Using IMF data and factoring in our liabilities arising from foreign direct investment, Ireland’s total personal and corporate indebtedness, net of borrowings by international and domestic financial institutions based here and public sector debt, stood at €790.8 billion (more than five times our GNP) at the end of 2008.

Would you lend Ireland money, if you had better options? Borrowing will rise in cost and/or borrowings will completely dry up. If you want to know what happens next, look at the IMF and EU terms applied to Iceland and Latvia.

The slush fund with which Fianna Fail and FG have traditionally bought our votes has run dry.

1. I am not living an illusion, neither am I looking forward to some chaos and the opportunities that might bring.

2. The figures you quote are from the IMF, the same IMF who said only last week, there is no question of them having to intervene in the Irish economy.

3. My figures work, we can make this work, all we have to do is decide to do it.

4. There is not now nor was there ever a slush fund to buy votes. You show a remarkable lack of respect for your fellow citizens to suggest it was ever possible to do this. Where the left ever got the idea that they and they alone stand on the high ground is beyond me and is not justified by anything they themselves have ever done in the past or present.

tonys wrote:

Quote :

I do.
Years 2 to 3
2.5 -3 billion, increases in income tax, 2.5 - 3 billion new property + carbon tax, 3 - 4 billion increases in corporation tax, ending of tax loop holes, .6 - 1 billion from the banks. total = 8.6 - 11 billion.
years 4 & 5
Hoped for 10% increase in overall tax take due to increased economic activity = 5 billion extra while holding overall costs, inc. public service wage bill, at current level.

"Hoped for" is the only part of that that is real. Your figures don't work, they are pure fantasy.

I would be interested to see your IMF source.

Yes: the public purse has consistently been used as a slush fund to buy votes. There is no other explanation for the huge unsolicited increases in payments to public sector workers, just for one example amongst thousands.

As for slush funds, the SSIA scheme was the most profligate, appalling bribe ever - a gargantuan waste of money and a miserable imposition on the working poor who had no chance of being able to avail of it but whose taxes were used to subsidise it. A massive transfer of wealth from poor to rich.

In fairness, Tonys, all political parties everywhere make promises they often can't keep or afford long term, at election time. Ireland is no different to anywhere else. As Clinton's team said a long while ago; it's the economy, stupid. Low taxes and money in people's wallets effectively DOES buy votes. Everywhere. Economic slumps frighten voters away. I'd say it has been so since democracy was invented. A good politican will juggle the long term consequences with the short term aspiration to stay in/gain power.

Cowen speaking now in Dáil ...

Are ye watching the Real Budget

1.4bn to be cut from public pay - mainly through changes to pension plans and subsistence.

90 million off overseas aid.

cuts to legal fees - I wonder does that mean also not paying the ones they already owe, as I highlighted earlier

75 million euro off early childcare supplement and will only be paid to under 5s.

140 million off administrative costs.

300 million off capital allocations - tender prices now 20% less so they say will not affect output.

Tax on second homes then ?

Yes he also mentioned that but he didn't give the figure as to what it will be.

Kenny laying into Social Partnership.

"The People were Excluded from This Process".

"Fianna Fáil turned to their tight network of vested interests"

"This has always relied on your ability to dish out goodies to vested interest groups. There is no more room for political patronage. The developers are bust. The game is up".

Kenny appealing to break up uncompetitive practices in the professions - energy, etc.

Gilmore impressing when needed, as usual.

Tony you seem to believe what Cooper Price and the IMF say. Good luck in that.

The fact is regardless of even an introduction of rates of 2000 on every house tax revenue will fall to below 30 billion.

You can believe me, you can believe the government figure crunchers or you can wait and see.



This waiting for S&P to speak on the rating of course is a waste of time. These donkeys are clueless and time and time again are caught flatfooted. In reality the rating has already been lowed and is below even Greece.

It's snowing in Clare ....

Quote :

Ireland Had January Budget Deficit of EU747 Million

By Louisa Nesbitt
Feb. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Ireland had a budget deficit of 747.2
million euros last month, compared with a surplus of 629.9
million euros in January of last year, the Government said today
in an e-mailed statement.

http://www.finance.gov.ie/documents/exchequerstatements/2009/excheqjan09.pdf

Gilmore pretty much savaged Cowen who looked as if he was hearing these ideas for the first time and wondering he hadn't thought of them himself. Both Kenny and Gilmore are right that the absence of detail in the announcement is infuriating.

The pension levy is going to raze peopl'e incomes. Cowen now giving details.

Person on 45K will be paying an extra 4250 pa - that's the midpoint of 6.8% on the sliding scale

3.8% lowest rate on salaries of 15K and over - up to 9% for people on 300K.

Astonishingly, people in the private sector are exempt from these levies, if I understand what I've heard correctly.