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 Irish Economy and Budget Watch / / /Emergency Budget Announced for April 7th

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PostSubject: Re: Irish Economy and Budget Watch / / /Emergency Budget Announced for April 7th   Wed Mar 04, 2009 6:25 pm

johnfás wrote:
Nope, that's the problem, you can't get a half time GMS contract - it is a huge discrimination against female GPs at it seriously effects your pension entitlements. But I can assure you the GMS contract holder in the practice is not earning what some would have you believe. It is a complicated situation which most practices have to deal with.

When the media reports on the payments to a GP they don't tell you that isn't the payment to the GPs pocket, that is the payment to the practice out of which they have to pay the mortgage on the premises, the light, heat and insurance, the computer system, the practice nurse, the secretaries and practice manager etc etc etc. Most practices will also have another GP working in subsidiary to the main GMS contract so you have to pay them as well.

I'm aware of that johnfás, I have overheads meself Mad : a lot of GPs though ( I'm sure not the one in your house) invest nothing in their surgeries. I know one without a loo, for example Shocked
Some of them are dirty, small, unheated and decrepit. There is often no practice nurse and little evidence of systematic file keeping. There is also often a drawer full of 50s and 20s.
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PostSubject: Re: Irish Economy and Budget Watch / / /Emergency Budget Announced for April 7th   Wed Mar 04, 2009 6:31 pm

johnfás wrote:
Most GPs aren't on the huge salaries that some would suggest - I live with one.

Everybody always thinks the other guy is getting more and any group or class which makes good money will always be the subject of begrudgery and jealousy. The main problem for the doctors is that the estate agents, accountants, stock-brokers, bankers, solicitors, bankers, insurance brokers and architects have all been cleaned out in part if not altogether. The doctors and dentists are the last men standing!

Back on topic - why the increase in health expenditure? Anyone know?


Last edited by Zhou_Enlai on Wed Mar 04, 2009 6:48 pm; edited 1 time in total
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PostSubject: Re: Irish Economy and Budget Watch / / /Emergency Budget Announced for April 7th   Wed Mar 04, 2009 6:32 pm

Yea but you combat that by introducing tighter regulation of their buildings.

There are a huge amount of GPs who would rather be directly employed by the State in healthcentres as public servants, I can tell you that as fact, particularly female GPs who cannot take on a fulltime GMS contract owing to other commitments. Of course if the State were to do that it would cost the State a huge amount more too so there is as much a reluctance on the part of the State to engage in that as there is from the IMO... however reflective of the body of practitioners that body actually is.

I think referring to GPs as a whole is about as off the mark as referring to the "public service" as one body. You have the GPs down in Foxrock who will jab you with the botox and earn themselves a handy 100 euro for doing it but then you have the surgeries like where the person who lives in my house is where methadone, depression, substance abuse, poor diet, lack of education are more the order of the day and you do the half it through French.
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PostSubject: Re: Irish Economy and Budget Watch / / /Emergency Budget Announced for April 7th   Thu Mar 05, 2009 11:09 am

ECB rate going to be lowered by 0.5% to 1.5% in an attempt to stimulate Eurozone. A little bit of welcome relief for mortgage holders here in Ireland. In effect it's an extra €50 quid or so for every 100k ?? That should be a good bit of extra cash appearing in the economy out of fresh air .... will it have any great effect though ? People will probably pay down debts which is no harm.

I'd love to know what it works out at overall in the economy ...

Jesus it just struck me that if enough economies around the world or in the Eurozone had a mortgage bubble then wouldn't it potentially drag down entire economies and hence interest rates over a long period of time ?

Growth is only good if it's sustainable anyway ...
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PostSubject: Re: Irish Economy and Budget Watch / / /Emergency Budget Announced for April 7th   Fri Mar 06, 2009 11:21 am

JP Morgan says Ireland is "remarkably strong"... then again aren't JP Morgan the people the Government are getting alot of advice from?

Quote :
One of the biggest banks in the US has reportedly told its clients that Ireland's financial position is "remarkably strong" despite the current banking crisis.

Reports this morning say an analysts' at JP Morgan believe Ireland's banks cold have to write off almost €27bn in debt in a worst-case scenario, which would require a further €13bn recapitalisation by the Government.
However, it says the Government would be capable of funding such a recapitalisation and points out that Ireland's debt-to-GDP ratio is better than many other euro-zone countries.
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PostSubject: Re: Irish Economy and Budget Watch / / /Emergency Budget Announced for April 7th   Fri Mar 06, 2009 3:29 pm

CORI not COIR have criticised the Govt. for not having a plan but they've been doing that for years and no one was listening. If bailout plans fail and the IdeasCampaign.ie we saw on Prime Time last night fails and the Quantitive Easing fails etc. etc. etc. then we'll all be back to the church very soon, believers or non believers.

Quote :
The religious group CORI has expressed concern about the Government's failure to draw up a comprehensive plan to tackle the economic crisis.

The group was speaking as community, voluntary and farming representatives prepare to receive a briefing from the Department of Finance today about the worsening state of the public finances.

CORI spokesman Fr Sean Healy said the Government was lurching from crisis to crisis due to its failure to draw up "a clear, coherent and credible plan".

He says one-off initiatives introduced on an ad-hoc basis are not sufficient to lead Ireland out of recession.

http://www.breakingnews.ie/business/eyaukfgbcwoj/
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PostSubject: Re: Irish Economy and Budget Watch / / /Emergency Budget Announced for April 7th   Fri Mar 06, 2009 4:11 pm

The Churches are having a serious cashflow problem I am afraid. I wonder whether our modern day rich are up to the task of funding charitable dispensation like their predecessors were. I await evidence.
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PostSubject: Re: Irish Economy and Budget Watch / / /Emergency Budget Announced for April 7th   Fri Mar 06, 2009 4:13 pm

johnfás wrote:
The Churches are having a serious cashflow problem I am afraid. I wonder whether our modern day rich are up to the task of funding charitable dispensation like their predecessors were. I await evidence.

Can't you go back to selling indulgences ? Razz
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PostSubject: Re: Irish Economy and Budget Watch / / /Emergency Budget Announced for April 7th   Fri Mar 06, 2009 4:32 pm

johnfás wrote:
The Churches are having a serious cashflow problem I am afraid. I wonder whether our modern day rich are up to the task of funding charitable dispensation like their predecessors were. I await evidence.

Some churches are models for transparency that I hope is emerging. Sometimes there is a restoration project which the community ends up paying for. Bizarrely they don't mind fund-raising, throwing in the extra 20c into the basket and giving Father O'Brien a tip for a horse etc. ---- especially when the church accounts are made very very public and published every Sunday for all to see like the donation bar in Wikipedia getting fuller and fuller.

People like feedback, they like information. Why the hell don't we do this with Govt. ??????????
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PostSubject: Re: Irish Economy and Budget Watch / / /Emergency Budget Announced for April 7th   Fri Mar 06, 2009 4:51 pm

cactus flower wrote:
johnfás wrote:
The Churches are having a serious cashflow problem I am afraid. I wonder whether our modern day rich are up to the task of funding charitable dispensation like their predecessors were. I await evidence.

Can't you go back to selling indulgences ? Razz

My lot rejected such practices in the early 16th century...

The Churches are one of the largest dispensers of charitable intervention in this State and people are going to become increasingly reliant upon them over the next couple of years.
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PostSubject: Re: Irish Economy and Budget Watch / / /Emergency Budget Announced for April 7th   Fri Mar 06, 2009 9:05 pm

So Fitch has put Ireland on "Negative" watch - the recent falls in tax receipts being the reason.

JP Morgan said Ireland had significant capacity to cope with more debt.
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PostSubject: Re: Irish Economy and Budget Watch / / /Emergency Budget Announced for April 7th   Mon Mar 09, 2009 10:44 pm

http://www.rte.ie/news/2009/0309/morningireland_av.html?2503217,null,209

Fr. Sean Healy of CORI this morning on Morning Ireland - he sees we have several crises - banking, deficit, competitiveness.

He thinks the Govt. is tackling one problem at a time when we have a series of crises which deserve an overall plan that would take 5-7 years.

In the short term we need to increase tax he says - we're the only country in Europe without land or property tax. As well as that we should look at carbon tax but as long as it's not inequitable in that it doesn't penalise rural dwellers.

He gives Aine Lawlor a slap towards the end for remarking negatively when he mentions taxing economic growth - it will come again he says and we need to formulate as good a plan as we can which will extend over 5-7 years.

Stuff in there about tax I didn't understand.
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PostSubject: Re: Irish Economy and Budget Watch / / /Emergency Budget Announced for April 7th   Tue Mar 10, 2009 3:30 am

Auditor #9 wrote:
http://www.rte.ie/news/2009/0309/morningireland_av.html?2503217,null,209

Fr. Sean Healy of CORI this morning on Morning Ireland - he sees we have several crises - banking, deficit, competitiveness.

He thinks the Govt. is tackling one problem at a time when we have a series of crises which deserve an overall plan that would take 5-7 years.

In the short term we need to increase tax he says - we're the only country in Europe without land or property tax. As well as that we should look at carbon tax but as long as it's not inequitable in that it doesn't penalise rural dwellers.

He gives Aine Lawlor a slap towards the end for remarking negatively when he mentions taxing economic growth - it will come again he says and we need to formulate as good a plan as we can which will extend over 5-7 years.

Stuff in there about tax I didn't understand.


I thought he was interesting too. Can't get the link to work - socket error confused
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PostSubject: Re: Irish Economy and Budget Watch / / /Emergency Budget Announced for April 7th   Tue Mar 10, 2009 3:33 am

Have you got realplayer installed?
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PostSubject: Re: Irish Economy and Budget Watch / / /Emergency Budget Announced for April 7th   Tue Mar 10, 2009 11:35 am

Ciaran Cuffe is on Morning Ireland talking about the Central Bank and Regulation. He says he learned more about this stuff from reading blogs and websites than from anywhere else.... hmm blogs and forums have their uses then.

This is an article from the Tribune from two weeks ago - it names 25 people who were instrumental in the exacerbation of the recession here. The Governor of the Central Bank comes out hardly scathed as he had issued warnings that were not heeded apparently.

http://www.tribune.ie/article/2009/mar/01/twenty-five-people-who-had-a-role-in-irelands-rece/

Quote :
John Hurley, Central Bank governor

The weakness of the regulatory system rendered Hurley largely powerless, and to be fair, he did issue warnings, via the Central Bank's quarterly reports, about excessive lending and about the property sector.

Under the regulatory system, the office of the regulator was not obliged to act on those warnings. But perhaps Hurley should have been more bolshie in his pronouncements. Given his stature, his was one voice that would have been listened to. Against that as governor of the Central Bank, he would have been careful not to stray into what might be deemed the political arena.
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PostSubject: EIB "ready to give priority to those countries which obviously are hard hit"   Tue Mar 10, 2009 12:35 pm

Quote :
Tuesday, March 10, 2009

Ireland ‘a priority’ for European Investment Bank


IRELAND is a priority country for the European Investment Bank (EIB) that is ready to lend to viable projects in the country, EIB president Philippe Maystadt said.

Up to now Irish State-owned and private enterprises were slow to borrow from one of the world’s richest banks, owned by the EU member states, but the Luxembourg-based agency is now seeing a major change in this.

"Ireland is one of the priority countries in the current circumstances. We are ready to finance viable projects but we are really ready to give priority to those countries which obviously are hard hit, and unfortunately Ireland is one of them," Mr Maystadt said in Brussels yesterday.

more ...
http://www.examiner.ie/World/idgbmhauoj/rss2/

(thread to be merged later with Irish Economy thread)
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PostSubject: Re: Irish Economy and Budget Watch / / /Emergency Budget Announced for April 7th   Tue Mar 10, 2009 12:51 pm

Stark warnings from Mary Harney on Q&A last night. She said that the name of the game was survival; that if the banks go down we all go down with them; that state pensions are only guaranteed "for the moment" because there will be no pensions if the country goes under (sovereign default / no available borrowings).

She also said that the Government could not hope to be popular in the circumstances. When attacked about her free-market ideology she said it was no time for acting on ideologies or discussing theory. She said the government has to be pragmatic and practical and the task that has to be achieved is getting the public finances in order.

I have criticised Harney a number of times. I criticised her adherence to ideology and the failure to hold the HSE and the Department of Health accountable. I think she performed well last night though and what she said gave me confidence that she is focussed on the main problem.
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PostSubject: Re: Irish Economy and Budget Watch / / /Emergency Budget Announced for April 7th   Tue Mar 10, 2009 1:00 pm

I find that woman intolerable but I was surprised when she floated the idea that starte pensions are only guaranteed "for the moment". Not that I now find her any more tolerable, but fair dues she was being honest for once. I must say though, I find comments from the Government to the effect that Ireland faces an existential threat a little disturbing. No matter how bad things get the country will always exist and any suggestion to the contrary reeks of treason to me.
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PostSubject: Re: Irish Economy and Budget Watch / / /Emergency Budget Announced for April 7th   Tue Mar 10, 2009 1:10 pm

I don't think it "reeks of treason". It is excessive scare-mongering though.

Essentially we are broke and have no money. The challenge we face is getting our heads around the problem and cutting our cloth to measure in order to avoid bankruptcy. There is a serious danger for vulnerable people tyhat if we go bust they will be left in abject poverty. There is a serious danger for the state that bankruptcy could cause such social unrest as to endanger the rule of law and our democratic institutions. However, bad as it is, our ancestors faced worse not so long ago. We are not as badly off as we were in 1922 or before.
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PostSubject: Re: Irish Economy and Budget Watch / / /Emergency Budget Announced for April 7th   Tue Mar 10, 2009 1:23 pm

Yes, you are right. Treason may be a bit strong.
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PostSubject: Re: Irish Economy and Budget Watch / / /Emergency Budget Announced for April 7th   Wed Mar 11, 2009 10:17 am

Quote :
Economy to contract by another 6% this year

THE economy is set to contract a further 6% this year and the unemployment rate should reach 11% by the end of December, the governor of the Central Bank, John Hurley, forecast yesterday.

Addressing a joint Oireachtas Committee on Economic and Regulatory Affairs, Mr Hurley said that by the end of 2010, the Irish economy will have contracted 10% over a three-year period.

This year, alone, will likely see a 6% fall in GDP and a similar decline in the level of employment, he warned.

"We have a very difficult time ahead of us, fiscally and economically. Whatever about wider international recovery signs, Ireland is facing into a difficult year or two and the most serious crisis in 45 years. But we can manoeuvre our way through this very difficult minefield if critical decisions are taken now. We can do this and create good potential for economic and jobs growth later on," said Mr Hurley.

He added that the adjustments needed were "essential", "very urgent" and, ultimately, political calls.

http://www.examiner.ie/Ireland/idgbeymhkf/rss2/
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PostSubject: Re: Irish Economy and Budget Watch / / /Emergency Budget Announced for April 7th   Wed Mar 11, 2009 10:30 am

Zhou_Enlai wrote:
I don't think it "reeks of treason". It is excessive scare-mongering though.

Essentially we are broke and have no money. The challenge we face is getting our heads around the problem and cutting our cloth to measure in order to avoid bankruptcy. There is a serious danger for vulnerable people tyhat if we go bust they will be left in abject poverty. There is a serious danger for the state that bankruptcy could cause such social unrest as to endanger the rule of law and our democratic institutions. However, bad as it is, our ancestors faced worse not so long ago. We are not as badly off as we were in 1922 or before.

The IMF is just doubling its contingency fund and Ireland has been repeatedly warned that it is on the brink of default. Harney is coming in at the tail end of a long list of people who have said this before her, starting with Cowen. The international press and economists have repeatedly warned. This is not scare mongering. But in terms of getting action out of government it is like trying to wake the dead.

The default if it comes will be because of Fianna Fail's corrupt relationship with the property sector, and reliance on taxation of development profits to provide for a vast slush fund for public spending aka vote and support buying. The banks, Government and the property sector are inextricably mingled. The collateral provided by Fitzpatrick for his loans was for example in the form of echoing and half empty tax incentivised shopping malls in Kilkenny and Clonmel. Irish investors were the second largest group in the European commercial property market at the height of the boom in 2007.

There is Guaranteed bad debt in the sum of at least 50 billion arising from these activities. At the same time there is a spectacular and rapidly increasing public sector deficit. It is no good saying that some of the property assets may recuperate part or even most of their value over 10 years if we cant pay our teachers and doctors next year.

The treason is from the small band of people who have created this nightmare. I don't include in this the many Fianna Fail supporters who are horrified at what has been done.


Last edited by cactus flower on Wed Mar 11, 2009 12:40 pm; edited 1 time in total
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PostSubject: Re: Irish Economy and Budget Watch / / /Emergency Budget Announced for April 7th   Wed Mar 11, 2009 11:12 am

Quote :
Not one crisis but five, Cowen told

IRELAND is facing not one but five separate crises at present, an economic advisory group to the Taoiseach has warned.

It comes as the cabinet holds a meeting this morning to discuss the tax hikes and spending cuts that will form part of next month’s emergency budget.

The National Economic and Social Council said while the international economy would revive, there would not be a return to the levels of growth witnessed from 1990 to 2008.

Such a situation "seems likely to have profound, as yet unknown, implications for Ireland", the report published yesterday states.

The council undermines government arguments that the recession can be blamed on the global downturn.
While the downturn and international credit crisis are two of the main factors, the others are domestic — loss of competitiveness beginning in 2000 and "one of the worst property bubbles the world has seen in recent years". The five closely related crises identified are:

* A banking crisis.

* A fiscal crisis.

* An economic crisis of competitiveness and job losses.

* A social crisis of unemployment, income loss and indebtedness.

* A reputational crisis.

more ...
http://www.examiner.ie/Ireland/idgbeygbey/rss2/
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PostSubject: Re: Irish Economy and Budget Watch / / /Emergency Budget Announced for April 7th   Wed Mar 11, 2009 11:23 am

http://www.nesc.ie/dynamic/docs/NESC-Report-No-118.pdf

The full NESC report is here.
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PostSubject: Re: Irish Economy and Budget Watch / / /Emergency Budget Announced for April 7th   Wed Mar 11, 2009 12:51 pm

The NESC is made up of:

  • Five persons nominated by agricultural and farming organisations;
  • Five persons nominated by business and employers’ organisations;
  • Five persons nominated by the Irish Congress of Trade Unions;
  • Five persons nominated by community and voluntary organisations;
  • Five public servants, of whom at least one represents the Taoiseach, and one the Minister for Finance; and
  • Five persons possessing knowledge, experience and skills which the Taoiseach considers relevant to the functions of the Council.

Social Partnership has followed the NESC for the last number of years. These guys may be part of the problem and may have a degree of blame to take. In fairness, they do say competitiveness is an issue.
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