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 General Election in 2009? Paddy Power Obviously Thinks So

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PostSubject: General Election in 2009? Paddy Power Obviously Thinks So   Wed Feb 18, 2009 6:51 pm

The odds on a Paddy Power for a General Election in 2009 have been
slashed recently. Of any year between now and 2012, the most likely
year is 2009 going by their odds. The odds have surpassed evens at this
stage:


2009 - 4/5
2010 - 9/4
2011 - 4/1
2012 - 6/1
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PostSubject: Re: General Election in 2009? Paddy Power Obviously Thinks So   Wed Feb 18, 2009 7:16 pm

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PostSubject: Re: General Election in 2009? Paddy Power Obviously Thinks So   Wed Feb 18, 2009 8:00 pm

They must use our polls to set their odds Very Happy
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PostSubject: Re: General Election in 2009? Paddy Power Obviously Thinks So   Wed Feb 18, 2009 8:41 pm

Dan Boyle has told Reuters that the Green's Commitment to remain in Government with Fianna Fáil is "not an open ended commitment"
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PostSubject: Re: General Election in 2009? Paddy Power Obviously Thinks So   Wed Feb 18, 2009 9:00 pm

How long before Gormley and Ryan have "earned" their Ministerial pensions?
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PostSubject: Re: General Election in 2009? Paddy Power Obviously Thinks So   Wed Feb 18, 2009 9:09 pm

soubresauts wrote:
How long before Gormley and Ryan have "earned" their Ministerial pensions?
I don't believe that is a concern for the ordinary members, the NEC or even important to the ministers.
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PostSubject: Re: General Election in 2009? Paddy Power Obviously Thinks So   Wed Feb 18, 2009 9:16 pm

eoinmn wrote:
soubresauts wrote:
How long before Gormley and Ryan have "earned" their Ministerial pensions?
I don't believe that is a concern for the ordinary members, the NEC or even important to the ministers.
Obviously not, only a dunderhead would bring it up, but it does go to show how stuck for a legitimate argument their detractors are.
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PostSubject: Re: General Election in 2009? Paddy Power Obviously Thinks So   Wed Feb 18, 2009 9:33 pm

Excellent post by someone called Veronica on IrishElection.
Sums up my thoughts, that this "golden circle" scandal (or gate as they are now called) smells of being manufactured.
Either FF are looking shifty, to reel FG in, and then afterwards have a perfectly reasonable explanation which will make FG look silly.
Or FG are making kicking up a stink in order to manufacture "events" where the Greens think this going to turn into a long protracted dripfed scandal and will just jump ship quickly before they even know the full details.
If that is the case, and the GP does jump, afterwards it could be like 1994 when Labour walked out on Albert Reynolds and afterwards nobody could remember why.
http://www.irishelection.com/02/we-are-committed-to-remaining-in-government-but-that-is-not-an-open-ended-commitment/

Having said all that.. if a FF backbencher is involved then all bets are off.
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PostSubject: Re: General Election in 2009? Paddy Power Obviously Thinks So   Wed Feb 18, 2009 10:29 pm

soubresauts wrote:
How long before Gormley and Ryan have "earned" their Ministerial pensions?

Indeed, 2 years is it not? So June at the earliest?

I just do not see either FF or the Greens wanting to head into an election. They have the numbers and can sit it out if they wish.

FG and Labour would be a lot more credible if they had some drastically different vision of how to proceed. Clearly they don't so basically what we have is opportunistic snipping rather than any clear alternative.

That said I do think FF need to be replaced. They are a hindrance to the restoration of confidence.
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PostSubject: Re: General Election in 2009? Paddy Power Obviously Thinks So   Wed Feb 18, 2009 10:39 pm

eoinmn wrote:
Excellent post by someone called Veronica on IrishElection.
Sums up my thoughts, that this "golden circle" scandal (or gate as they are now called) smells of being manufactured.
Either FF are looking shifty, to reel FG in, and then afterwards have a perfectly reasonable explanation which will make FG look silly.
Or FG are making kicking up a stink in order to manufacture "events" where the Greens think this going to turn into a long protracted dripfed scandal and will just jump ship quickly before they even know the full details.
If that is the case, and the GP does jump, afterwards it could be like 1994 when Labour walked out on Albert Reynolds and afterwards nobody could remember why.
http://www.irishelection.com/02/we-are-committed-to-remaining-in-government-but-that-is-not-an-open-ended-commitment/

Having said all that.. if a FF backbencher is involved then all bets are off.

The coup against Albert was a stinker. Some details and speculation here
http://machinenation.forumakers.com/national-politics-f32/albert-reynolds-the-legend-and-the-legacy-t1066.htm?highlight=albert

What is happening now is not the same at all. There is a deeply unpopular government that most people feel is out of its depth and many people feel is not acting in the interest of the country as a whole, but defending a cosy cartel. The Greens can't claim they are not responsible for what this Government is doing, as they are keeping the Government in power. Without their support there would be a General Election. I agree that the alternatives dont have the solutions, and I think FG would hit the poor just as hard or harder than would FF, but if Labour and other left parties will give it a go, there will be some sort of choice.

Government is seen as being unfair and incompetent. If they were also seen as corrupt, the game would be up.
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PostSubject: Re: General Election in 2009? Paddy Power Obviously Thinks So   Wed Feb 18, 2009 11:48 pm

If Paddy Power is giving 4/5 on an election in 2009, then it's a certainty. With all that's coming out, with the promise of more to come, it's bound to make the Greens feel uncomfortable. Hence the Reuters story today. They were so, so neaqr the pension too! It's so unfair!
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PostSubject: Re: General Election in 2009? Paddy Power Obviously Thinks So   Wed Feb 18, 2009 11:56 pm

I don't think its a certainty. The Greens are uncomfortable but it is highly unlikely that they will be in the next Government because FG and Lab would have a comfortable majority without them. Why bring the Government down in that circumstance.
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PostSubject: Re: General Election in 2009? Paddy Power Obviously Thinks So   Thu Feb 19, 2009 4:20 am

eoinmn wrote:
Excellent post by someone called Veronica on IrishElection.
Sums up my thoughts, that this "golden circle" scandal (or gate as they are now called) smells of being manufactured.
Either FF are looking shifty, to reel FG in, and then afterwards have a perfectly reasonable explanation which will make FG look silly.
Or FG are making kicking up a stink in order to manufacture "events" where the Greens think this going to turn into a long protracted dripfed scandal and will just jump ship quickly before they even know the full details.
If that is the case, and the GP does jump, afterwards it could be like 1994 when Labour walked out on Albert Reynolds and afterwards nobody could remember why.
http://www.irishelection.com/02/we-are-committed-to-remaining-in-government-but-that-is-not-an-open-ended-commitment/

Having said all that.. if a FF backbencher is involved then all bets are off.

Actually her post is nonsensical. Oh and BTW there was a very good reason why the FF-Lab government collapsed. The most basic requirement in a government is trust. Labour's trust in their FF colleagues had collapsed due to Albert's paranoia and bloodmindedness. The government as good as collapsed over the Beef Tribunal report when not only were Labour denied the copy of the report they were supposed to get until FF had read it first. They were actually locked out of the Taoiseach's corridor where the copies were. The fire doors half the way down the corridor, which never are locked, mysteriously were locked. (People hadn't even noticed they existed before as they were all open.) FF claimed that they had just accidentally jammed, which turned out to be a lie as FF staffers were seen going up to them, giving a coded knock and then when when it was thought no-one was looking, someone would sneak out, unlock the door to let the FF staffer in, then lock it again.

It was perverse. Labour had been increasingly fed up of Reynolds's odd behaviour, but they had no intention of walking out on the tribunal report. But they were understandably pissed off to find they locked out of the government buildings until FF could read it, with the first thing Labour knew about its contents being media reports spun by FF about its contents. Their relationship had been strained, and Labour felt they had doubts about whether they could trust their colleagues. But the shenanigans that night convinced them FF were untrustworthy. They could have pulled out of government there and then - people never stay in cabinet with people they don't trust. Trust is an absolute requirement. But Labour didn't leave because the Northern peace process was very delicate and they thought if they walked out, collapsed a government and caused an election it could wreck it. But FF was warned that Labour would put up with no more screwing around. They wanted full honesty or they would go. To Labour's astonishment FF almost immediately began fucking them over yet again. Labour expressed unhappiness with who Reynolds wanted to make chief justice. Labour felt he would make a bad chief justice. FF agreed to leave the issue alone for a while, then as soon as Dick Spring as Foreign Minister went abroad the nomination suddenly appeared on the cabinet agenda and was bulldozed through.

Labour concluded yet again they were being screwed over by FF and believed if they couldn't trust FF how could they work with them. FF appeared to apologise only to be caught still trying to screw them over. FF ministers pretended that they were appalled at what had happened and under Ahern would be upfront and honest. But then Labour found that the ministers were still up to their dirty tricks, and something (the Duggan case) which they claimed they had no knowledge about until later, they had known about days earlier. AT that point Labour understandably gave up the ghost - how can you sit in cabinet with people who you believe will lie to you, deceive you and stab you in the back day after day? The bottom line needed is trust. Labour could no longer trust a single thing FF said or did, and so, understandably, walked.

So no, they did not walk over the Duggan case. And they did not walk over Whelehan. They walked because by then they had concluded that FF were a shower or twofaced backstabbing SOBs who could not be trusted. FF's antics and Duggan and Whelehan just were the straw that broke the camel's back - they showed that FF was still as arrogant, two-faced and untrustworthy as ever. And without trust a government cannot function.


Last edited by Papal_knight Two on Fri Feb 20, 2009 11:22 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : removing offensive word)
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PostSubject: Re: General Election in 2009? Paddy Power Obviously Thinks So   Thu Feb 19, 2009 4:57 am

If the greens do go, what are the chances that the government can survive with independant (inc ex PD) support?
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PostSubject: Re: General Election in 2009? Paddy Power Obviously Thinks So   Thu Feb 19, 2009 5:06 am

shutuplaura wrote:
If the greens do go, what are the chances that the government can survive with independant (inc ex PD) support?
None at all I'd say. If political parties can't take the pressure it would be unrealistic to expect independents to in the present circumstances. Having said that I don't think the greens are going anywhere, not yet anyway.
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PostSubject: Re: General Election in 2009? Paddy Power Obviously Thinks So   Thu Feb 19, 2009 5:44 am

tonys wrote:
shutuplaura wrote:
If the greens do go, what are the chances that the government can survive with independant (inc ex PD) support?
None at all I'd say. If political parties can't take the pressure it would be unrealistic to expect independents to in the present circumstances. Having said that I don't think the greens are going anywhere, not yet anyway.

With the green conferance in a month I'd agree that they probably won't make any decision til then at least.
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PostSubject: Re: General Election in 2009? Paddy Power Obviously Thinks So   Thu Feb 19, 2009 5:53 am

The Greens have been missing from the Dail for the last two days. Anyone know why?
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PostSubject: Re: General Election in 2009? Paddy Power Obviously Thinks So   Thu Feb 19, 2009 1:31 pm

shutuplaura wrote:
tonys wrote:
shutuplaura wrote:
If the greens do go, what are the chances that the government can survive with independant (inc ex PD) support?
None at all I'd say. If political parties can't take the pressure it would be unrealistic to expect independents to in the present circumstances. Having said that I don't think the greens are going anywhere, not yet anyway.

With the green conferance in a month I'd agree that they probably won't make any decision til then at least.
Current numbers stack up as follows:
Gov: FF 75 PD 2 Ind 2 (JHR, ML) GP 6 = 85
CC: 1 (JO'D)
Ind: 2 (JB & JMcD)
Opp: FG: 51 Lab 20, SF 4, Ind 1 (FMcG) = 76

Without the 6 GP votes the Gov side are down to 79 and even if McD in 99% certain to support the Gov an all non-vaccine related issues that makes 80. Joe Behan blows hot and cold so they can't rely on him. If, as expected, the opposition win the two by-elections that takes them up to 78 at which point poaching the GP becomes an option for Kenny & Gilmore. Similarly a GP walkout might see Cowen love bombing (ahem) the Shinners, and while it is impossible to think they'd fail to see the madness of succumbing to such advances, it does make me wonder what it would take to buy their votes. So, based on the numbers, the Government cannot survive without the Greens. Sadly for them, nor can the Greens survive without the Government, but they made their decision 2 years ago and will now have to live with the consequences. The sooner they take their medicine the easier it will be for them in the long run. If they attempt to sit it out for another 3 years there will never be a Green elected to so much as a residents association for the forseeable future.
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PostSubject: Re: General Election in 2009? Paddy Power Obviously Thinks So   Thu Feb 19, 2009 1:40 pm

A FF/SF Government would mean a bit of a policy shift, but how much of one? Would it be correct to say from their performance in the North, they are not in principle averse to cuts in services?
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PostSubject: Re: General Election in 2009? Paddy Power Obviously Thinks So   Thu Feb 19, 2009 1:55 pm

I don't think anyone can be averse to cuts in the current climate. All that matters now is that the cuts be seen to be fairly applied. Hitting the low paid, children, people with disabilities is not fair. Simple as. The point has been made here and elsewhere that there is no point having an election now as any new government will have to slash and burn anyway. The key for me is that any new government will have told the electorate up front what they are going to slash and burn and will have a mandate to do so. If I was FG, Lab or SF I'd be looking for 20billion alternative cuts and for starters I'd be leaving front line services alone. I'd be cutting back on civil service salaries (no-one on the public payroll should be earning 6 figure sums) I'd be cutting back on goldplated pension schemes. I'd be taxing the shit out of the kleptocratic classes and I'd be gutting the top 2 or 3 layers of the civil service. Then I'd start looking down the line until I hit 20 billion. People are ready to suffer, as long as those who can afford to, suffer their share.

Let's for once have an election where we all make decisions with our eyes wide open and are not bribed with our own money like a bunch of halfwits.
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PostSubject: Re: General Election in 2009? Paddy Power Obviously Thinks So   Fri Feb 20, 2009 11:30 pm

First of all, apologies if my post earlier offended people. I used a rather strong word out of anger with the state of the country. To say I am bitterly angry is an understatement. In the process I phrased one sentence in a way that in particular I probably should not have done, purely out of extreme anger at the government. No offensiveness was intended.

Secondly, the government's Dáil crisis seems to be mounting. The newspapers today quoted Jackie Healy Rae as demanding that low paid public servants be removed from the levy. If so that suggests Jackie is beginning to break ranks. Either that or the government is engineering a climb down and Jackie is getting in first to claim credit.

It also appears Michael Lowry is gone from the government side.
With Finian McGrath gone too, and Seamus Brennan deceased the Dáil arithmetic is moving against them.
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PostSubject: Re: General Election in 2009? Paddy Power Obviously Thinks So   Fri Feb 20, 2009 11:33 pm

Does FG want the job ?
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PostSubject: Re: General Election in 2009? Paddy Power Obviously Thinks So   Fri Feb 20, 2009 11:37 pm

Very interesting. It seems to me that it will become more and more difficult for Fianna Fail to hold together. One end of the party is clearly operating as an arm of the banks and the other end must be progressively be being hammered by their voters. Whether it will be by attrition, or a more fundamental split, is hard to say at this stage.

Who will we be demonstrating against in six months time?
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PostSubject: Re: General Election in 2009? Paddy Power Obviously Thinks So   Fri Feb 20, 2009 11:43 pm

Is there a link on Lowry getting shifty? He's probably just reading the writing on the wall and shoring up his position. I can't see the Government lasting till June. Their coyness around the 10 men is inept to say the least.

Quote :
The names of his brave comrades,
And other things they wished to know.
"Turn informer and we'll spare you"
Brian Cowen answered, "no".

Another martyr for old Ireland;
Bloody murder for poor Cowen,
Those brutal laws to crush the Bankers,
Could not keep their spirit down.
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PostSubject: Re: General Election in 2009? Paddy Power Obviously Thinks So   Fri Feb 20, 2009 11:49 pm

coc wrote:
Is there a link on Lowry getting shifty? He's probably just reading the writing on the wall and shoring up his position. I can't see the Government lasting till June. Their coyness around the 10 men is inept to say the least.

Quote :
The names of his brave comrades,
And other things they wished to know.
"Turn informer and we'll spare you"
Brian Cowen answered, "no".

Another martyr for old Ireland;
Bloody murder for poor Cowen,
Those brutal laws to crush the Bankers,
Could not keep their spirit down.

Stirring stuff coc.

I'm not too bothered about the 10. I want to know who the six Cabinet Ministers are who have not clarified that they have not had Anglo Irish loans. Why don't they all clear this up once and for all?
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