Latest IT/ mrbi Poll - FF in Third Place! Labour up 10!

FG 32%
Lab 24%
FF 22%
SF 9%
Gr 4%

I would be happier if Labour was outperforming FG. Gilmore is doing a far better job than Edna

expat girl wrote:

I would be happier if Labour was outperforming FG. Gilmore is doing a far better job than Edna

I infer from this that you'd rather see FG whacked than FF.

Part of me is glad that FG is staying centre-right even if it will alienate some voters - the amount that might be needed to break 35%. On the other hand they should try at least to appear radical and dynamic in at least some aspects - not always staid and boring - though the latter is what we really need and not the demagogue theatrics employed by the left.

People keep making the mistake that charasmatic politicians make great leaders, and by the converse of that Enda is crap. The truth is that history has always proven the opposite.

expat girl wrote:

I would be happier if Labour was outperforming FG. Gilmore is doing a far better job than Edna

Labour is in the process of cannibalising the FF vote, disconnecting urban trade union and public service workers who, but for our whacked-out political history, would normally follow a party of the centre-Left. That is why this collapse in FF support is so dangerous for them. If this level of support is sustained for Labour over the near term then we may be able to claim that we are witnessing a paradigm-shift in Irish politics. And such shifts have effects that last for several generations.

Has this ever happened before? I mean Labour polling ahead of FF

Nope, never. FG hadn't polled ahead of them until a month ago either.

Desmond O'Toole wrote:

expat girl wrote:

I would be happier if Labour was outperforming FG. Gilmore is doing a far better job than Edna

Labour is in the process of cannibalising the FF vote, disconnecting urban trade union and public service workers who, but for our whacked-out political history, would normally follow a party of the centre-Left. That is why this collapse in FF support is so dangerous for them. If this level of support is sustained for Labour over the near term then we may be able to claim that we are witnessing a paradigm-shift in Irish politics. And such shifts have effects that last for several generations.

Is the fall in this poll a lot down to what's happening to the civil service pensions ?

This disconnection of urban trade union and ps workers - do you mean they'll support Labour now or ... ?

Auditor #9 wrote:

Desmond O'Toole wrote:

expat girl wrote:

I would be happier if Labour was outperforming FG. Gilmore is doing a far better job than Edna

Labour is in the process of cannibalising the FF vote, disconnecting urban trade union and public service workers who, but for our whacked-out political history, would normally follow a party of the centre-Left. That is why this collapse in FF support is so dangerous for them. If this level of support is sustained for Labour over the near term then we may be able to claim that we are witnessing a paradigm-shift in Irish politics. And such shifts have effects that last for several generations.

Is the fall in this poll a lot down to what's happening to the civil service pensions ?

This disconnection of urban trade union and ps workers - do you mean they'll support Labour now or ... ?

The fall in this poll is entirely down to the public service workers having a strop, it went straight to Labour, they wouldn't touch FG with a barge pole. I would think FF wouldn't be overly worried or surprised by it, it's only a poll, people can afford to be stropy.

Auditor #9 wrote:

Desmond O'Toole wrote:

expat girl wrote:

I would be happier if Labour was outperforming FG. Gilmore is doing a far better job than Edna

Labour is in the process of cannibalising the FF vote, disconnecting urban trade union and public service workers who, but for our whacked-out political history, would normally follow a party of the centre-Left. That is why this collapse in FF support is so dangerous for them. If this level of support is sustained for Labour over the near term then we may be able to claim that we are witnessing a paradigm-shift in Irish politics. And such shifts have effects that last for several generations.

Is the fall in this poll a lot down to what's happening to the civil service pensions ?

This disconnection of urban trade union and ps workers - do you mean they'll support Labour now or ... ?

It's the only viable option. FF have traditionally been very good for the public sector, and I don't mean that in a negative way (I'm not talking about any of this "jobs for the boys" or vested interest conspiracy theory stuff). Probably because they have been in government more than any other party, they seem to recognize more than any other party that public sector workers do very good and very important work. For this reason the public sector would traditionally have gone FF in elections. However, the pension levy is simply unacceptable for many, if not most, public workers who will be placed in serious financial trouble by the measure. If this is taken as a sign that a panicked FF government is going to bend to private sector pressure and scapegoat the public sector workers, many of them will seek an alternative out of necessity. The choice is really between Labour and Fine Gael. I don't know how Kenny and FG are reacting to the pension levy,. I'm sure they're quick to express their outrage at the move and their support for the public sector workers. But remember not so long ago around budget time FG were effectively calling for the sacking of up to 5,000 public sector workers. The positive relationship that has traditionally existed between FF and the public sector has driven FG to be quite anti-public sector at times, and public sector workers are not so stupid as to forget this. Labour have really been the other pro-public sector worker party in Ireland, being a pro-worker party in general. While the traditional view has been that this works to Labour's disadvantage because FF have generally been seen as a pro-worker and pro-trade union party and thus took a lot of Labour's potential vote, Labour are now ideally positioned to enjoy maximum gain from FF's loss.

Desmond O'Toole wrote:

expat girl wrote:

I would be happier if Labour was outperforming FG. Gilmore is doing a far better job than Edna

Labour is in the process of cannibalising the FF vote,

Will ya stop. Labour couldn't cannibalise yourself if they were given salt, pepper, two potatoes and a pot, they don't have the organisation on the ground to hold on to any kind of increased support.

tonys wrote:

Auditor #9 wrote:

Desmond O'Toole wrote:

expat girl wrote:

I would be happier if Labour was outperforming FG. Gilmore is doing a far better job than Edna

Labour is in the process of cannibalising the FF vote, disconnecting urban trade union and public service workers who, but for our whacked-out political history, would normally follow a party of the centre-Left. That is why this collapse in FF support is so dangerous for them. If this level of support is sustained for Labour over the near term then we may be able to claim that we are witnessing a paradigm-shift in Irish politics. And such shifts have effects that last for several generations.

Is the fall in this poll a lot down to what's happening to the civil service pensions ?

This disconnection of urban trade union and ps workers - do you mean they'll support Labour now or ... ?

The fall in this poll is entirely down to the public service workers having a strop, it went straight to Labour, they wouldn't touch FG with a barge pole. I would think FF wouldn't be overly worried or surprised by it, it's only a poll, people can afford to be stropy.

This was a lot of soother-rattling then? A lot of rattles got thrown from prams the last few polls ?

Has there been polls like this back during the eighties or is this the worst poll for FF since polling began ..... in 1992 ?

Auditor #9 wrote:

tonys wrote:

Auditor #9 wrote:

Desmond O'Toole wrote:

expat girl wrote:

I would be happier if Labour was outperforming FG. Gilmore is doing a far better job than Edna

Labour is in the process of cannibalising the FF vote, disconnecting urban trade union and public service workers who, but for our whacked-out political history, would normally follow a party of the centre-Left. That is why this collapse in FF support is so dangerous for them. If this level of support is sustained for Labour over the near term then we may be able to claim that we are witnessing a paradigm-shift in Irish politics. And such shifts have effects that last for several generations.

Is the fall in this poll a lot down to what's happening to the civil service pensions ?

This disconnection of urban trade union and ps workers - do you mean they'll support Labour now or ... ?

The fall in this poll is entirely down to the public service workers having a strop, it went straight to Labour, they wouldn't touch FG with a barge pole. I would think FF wouldn't be overly worried or surprised by it, it's only a poll, people can afford to be stropy.

This was a lot of soother-rattling then? A lot of rattles got thrown from prams the last few polls ?

Has there been polls like this back during the eighties or is this the worst poll for FF since polling began ..... in 1992 ?

Of course people are not happy, the negative news has been relentless for the past few months, but FF were down to 32% weeks before the last election, for no real reason at all, but on the day they came in with just short of 42%. There is no real relationship between polls and elections in Ireland.

At the moment my guess would be that if there were an election in 3/4 weeks time FF would come in between 33% and 37%, Labour would gain 2/3%, the greens 1/2%, SF 1/2% and FG would gain most of the PD vote, such as it was and that would be about the size of it.

Pat Carey and Ruairi Quinn on Morning Ireland about this now - Quinn said FF put themselves into this by not listening to the 'doomsayers' and instead suggesting they 'commit suicide'. Carey said that financial decisions were tested against sound models and that not one penny was spent in a profligate manner.

He forgot John O'Donoghue's 54k toilet.

Yeah I heard Quinn alright. He mentioned the EVMs and then Pat Carey
admonished him for interrupting him. I'd have loved Quinn to tell Pat
Carey to shut his lying beak and list off (in no particular order of profligacy:

• PPARS
  
• FÁS
  
• eGovernment
  
• Section 23 Hotels
  
• Cullen goes to China
  
• Garda Pulse
  

Maybe next time.

evercloserunion wrote:

Auditor #9 wrote:

Desmond O'Toole wrote:

expat girl wrote:

I would be happier if Labour was outperforming FG. Gilmore is doing a far better job than Edna

Labour is in the process of cannibalising the FF vote, disconnecting urban trade union and public service workers who, but for our whacked-out political history, would normally follow a party of the centre-Left. That is why this collapse in FF support is so dangerous for them. If this level of support is sustained for Labour over the near term then we may be able to claim that we are witnessing a paradigm-shift in Irish politics. And such shifts have effects that last for several generations.

Is the fall in this poll a lot down to what's happening to the civil service pensions ?

This disconnection of urban trade union and ps workers - do you mean they'll support Labour now or ... ?

It's the only viable option. FF have traditionally been very good for the public sector, and I don't mean that in a negative way (I'm not talking about any of this "jobs for the boys" or vested interest conspiracy theory stuff). Probably because they have been in government more than any other party, they seem to recognize more than any other party that public sector workers do very good and very important work. For this reason the public sector would traditionally have gone FF in elections. However, the pension levy is simply unacceptable for many, if not most, public workers who will be placed in serious financial trouble by the measure. If this is taken as a sign that a panicked FF government is going to bend to private sector pressure and scapegoat the public sector workers, many of them will seek an alternative out of necessity. The choice is really between Labour and Fine Gael. I don't know how Kenny and FG are reacting to the pension levy,. I'm sure they're quick to express their outrage at the move and their support for the public sector workers. But remember not so long ago around budget time FG were effectively calling for the sacking of up to 5,000 public sector workers. The positive relationship that has traditionally existed between FF and the public sector has driven FG to be quite anti-public sector at times, and public sector workers are not so stupid as to forget this. Labour have really been the other pro-public sector worker party in Ireland, being a pro-worker party in general. While the traditional view has been that this works to Labour's disadvantage because FF have generally been seen as a pro-worker and pro-trade union party and thus took a lot of Labour's potential vote, Labour are now ideally positioned to enjoy maximum gain from FF's loss.

That's a pretty good description. Fianna Fail just don't have the money any more to be all things to all people, and they have cast their lot with the rich.

Back in the MN crystal ball at the beginning of the year I forecast -

Quote :

[size=12]3. Stagflation and a continued shuddering from one new low economic benchmark to the next. A trend to protectionism. Strains on the Euro with weaker economies wanting to join and stronger currencies having the horrors about the likes of Ireland.

4. A likelihood that the IMF will arrive in Ireland, but the IMF experiencing financial shortfall itself

5. Unemployment in Ireland over 15% - virtual wipe-out of FF in the local and European elections. Splits in/from Fianna Fail.

6. Emergence of new parties internationally, and move of marginal parties to the mainstream. Gains by the far right and regrouping on the left. Mass resistance to destruction of public services and false flag incidents to attempt to discredit it. Big increase in political discussion, study and theorising.

I remain of the view that the economic shift we are seeing will finally blow away the old civil war politics and class interests will reshape them.

Its interesting to note as well that Labour's rise in the polls coincided with Gilmore's firm statement that Labour wanted to form a government. This statement was in the week that the executive voted to cut the ties between the Labour Party and the trade unions. If anyone thinks Labour proposesto offer a real socialist alternative I think they will be disappointed. The Labour Party's leadership is looking to take the party into the New Labour so called "middle ground" with the prospect of forming a government that gets its votes from the working and middle classes.

I can't help but attribute the dramatic shift in Labour support being put down to the new "shifting" voting populace that are mainly concentrated about the so-called commuter belts. We were told by the Irish media (so credibility is an issue with this observation) that many of the communter belt types were concerned about the value of their properties, and by extension jobs to pay for the mortgages, so they opted for the safe management abilities of FF on election day during the last GE. I can only surmise that many of these voters believe that Labour will somehow protect their "investments" better than the current govt. I don't think many of these voters see themselves as traditional wage-earners but as the new dynamic consumer class; many who've bought the belief that a few letters after their name entitles them to more than other people in society.

As for Labour, they seem to be styling themselves (given their move away from unions) into the UK type New Labour. New Labour's economic track record has out maggied Maggie Thatcher, hence the inability of the Tories to win elections. Therefore Irish New Labour's stance just might be the ticket to woo away these voters from FF for the time being, and if they can get their keesters in govt they've a good chance to hold onto power for a long time.

Given their govt partners of choice, it seems we will have all three main parties solidly positioned right of centre. The post civil war will have changed if this comes to pass. Business interests will prevail to the detriment of all other social considerations. As for wage earners, they can look to a new period of indebtitude. Consumer's choice it final.

Gilmore sees it as a shift towards wanting a fair and more equal society.

http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/mhsnididmhgb/

It is certainly a shift towards becoming a party of government.

Perhaps some of New Labour's supporters are people who want Old Fianna Fail.

I think that Labour is drawing support from people who are disillusioned with the market driven economic driven economic and social policies that now look disastrous world wide. Some of these would be traditional working class Labour supporters, some working class former FF voters and the rest most likely disaffected middle class voters, many of whom now fear losing their homes aka "investments".

Tony Blair so far as I can see managed to get changes through in Britain that Thatcher would have struggled with.

Gl to New Labour á la Irish style. Many of the same words and slogans that New Irish Labour are espousing now are the old mantra of the UK New Labour. Will the effects be the same whereby wage earner's standard of living is deteriorating in the UK? I hope not but I have very little hope for anything in Irish politics - or politics of any type.

At least the Irish Labour party has copped onto the fact that the majority of voters don't see themselves as old type wage earners anymore. Most workers seem to believe that the few letters of the alphabet tagged onto their names has moved them up on the world, and way beyond social politics. They have more in common with their employers than with dem auld factory workers - until a wee recession comes along.

I suppose a Labour/FG govt won't be any worse. However, they need to get their ice skates on remove the present govt by any hook or crook necessary. The recovery, such as it will be, should appear right before the next GE. The presiding govt has to be removed or so weakened that they don't have a look-in. Whoever gets into govt next time should have about a 10 year run before the next economic hiccup.

The Labour Party are modernising and injecting some much-needed life into an organisation that is on life-support in many constituencies. The party are reforming the selection process, internal structures and breaking ties with a group of people who didn't vote for them anyway. All this talk of the party moving in the same direction as New Labour in the UK is total rubbish. Where are the Tony Blairs or Peter Mandelsons in the Irish Labour Party? The party will not shift substantially from what it has been for decades; middle of the road, socially liberal pragmatists who get their day in the sun once ever fifteen years thanks to disconnect with the big two. There's no big change afoot, other than badly needed and entirely welcome orgainsational reform.

rockyracoon wrote:

Gl to New Labour á la Irish style. Many of the same words and slogans that New Irish Labour are espousing now are the old mantra of the UK New Labour.

So what? They're also clearly trying to copy Obama's web strategy but no sensible person is comparing Gilmore to Obama. They're copying successful political communication models from other jurisdictions, it means nothing other than the fact that they've finally got their act together.

unaligned wrote:

The Labour Party are modernising and injecting some much-needed life into an organisation that is on life-support in many constituencies. The party are reforming the selection process, internal structures and breaking ties with a group of people who didn't vote for them anyway. All this talk of the party moving in the same direction as New Labour in the UK is total rubbish. Where are the Tony Blairs or Peter Mandelsons in the Irish Labour Party? The party will not shift substantially from what it has been for decades; middle of the road, socially liberal pragmatists who get their day in the sun once ever fifteen years thanks to disconnect with the big two. There's no big change afoot, other than badly needed and entirely welcome orgainsational reform.

How is the selection process going to be changed? Certainly, a younger age profile in Labour could only be to the good. What is the reason given for ending the Trade Union connection?

Most of the people in the British Labour Party were there before Blair and Mandelson's day and all but a tiny few like Robin Cook went with the flow. I wouldn't argue with your description of the Labour leaders as socially liberal pragmatists. That is after all what New Labour was made up of. It is imo not a good enough foundation for dealing with the type of social and economic upheaval we are going into. I would be voting for them long before I voted for any of the other mainstream parties, but I wouldn't be holding out hopes for any major radical social change as a result.

unaligned wrote:

rockyracoon wrote:

Gl to New Labour á la Irish style. Many of the same words and slogans that New Irish Labour are espousing now are the old mantra of the UK New Labour.

So what? They're also clearly trying to copy Obama's web strategy but no sensible person is comparing Gilmore to Obama. They're copying successful political communication models from other jurisdictions, it means nothing other than the fact that they've finally got their act together.

Calm down. I'm not that interested about Labour too much anyway. If they get in, as I suggested in the last paragraph of the post, then more power to their elbow.

I also suggested that Labour had wised up to the demographic change in thinking by many wage earners. Your reinteration is much appreciated though.

I don't, however, put the surge in the poll rating down to mere organisation. That which I do know of Irish Labour sounds alot like the UK new Labour's old message which might be just ringing the right bells for some wage earners given the current economic climate. If they eventually follow the UK Labour Party model, and given their choosen governmental partners, that could be a possibility, they'll essentially be another right of centre party whatever their motus operandi or method of communication.

So be it. Only time will tell if they get the chance.

You'll find details of the reformed selection procedures here: http://www.labour.ie/download/pdf/21stcenturycommission.pdf. It's a very readable document. The primary reason given for diluting the link with the Trade Unions:

The focus of many modern reforms within the Labour Party have been towards empowering individual members to make the most important decision within the Party, including selecting candidates as well as electing the Leader and Deputy Leader. In this context it is clear that the concept of group membership has become less relevant within a modern political party...

The root of the issue:

It is in our view incompatible with the objectives of a modern progressive political party that votes are cast at a Party Conference based not on the number of Party members a delegate represents but on the number of members of that delegate’s own organisation – when the bulk of those affiliated members are not Party members, Party supporters or even Party voters.

rockyracoon wrote:

unaligned wrote:

rockyracoon wrote:

Gl to New Labour á la Irish style. Many of the same words and slogans that New Irish Labour are espousing now are the old mantra of the UK New Labour.

So what? They're also clearly trying to copy Obama's web strategy but no sensible person is comparing Gilmore to Obama. They're copying successful political communication models from other jurisdictions, it means nothing other than the fact that they've finally got their act together.

Calm down. I'm not that interested about Labour too much anyway. If they get in, as I suggested in the last paragraph of the post, then more power to their elbow.

I also suggested that Labour had wised up to the demographic change in thinking by many wage earners. Your reinteration is much appreciated though.

I don't, however, put the surge in the poll rating down to mere organisation. That which I do know of Irish Labour sounds alot like the UK new Labour's old message which might be just ringing the right bells for some wage earners given the current economic climate. If they eventually follow the UK Labour Party model, and given their choose governmental partners, that could be a possibility, they'll essentially be another right of centre party whatever their motus operandi or method of communication.

So be it. Only time will tell if they get the chance.

Apologies, I didn't mean to be agressive there at all. I'm actually very calm as it's Friday, got a new job yesterday and I'm off to spend the weekend by the sea.

Nice - new job and a weekend by the sea. I dare yee to go into for a dip. I did one time during the winter at Glencolumbkille and nearly had heart failure, but felt strangely better for it afterwards. Mind you, the hot whiskey and turf fire helped in the revival process.