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 Mary Lou in a Stew

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PostSubject: Mary Lou in a Stew   Mon Jan 26, 2009 7:47 pm

From yesterday's Turbine.

This is a real quandary for SF. Mary Lou is already selected as the candidate for the Dublin constituency for the European Parliament elections. If, as expected, the DNC by-election to replace Tony Gregory is held on the same day, how can she credibly stand for both posts? If she sticks to the Euro ticket then who will SF run instead? Will that candidate be expected to stand aside again at the next General election? Doing that would likely expose Mary Lou to similar issues that hampered her last time out.

I'm sure the plan was to run and win the European election, setting her up nicely for a Dáil run next time, but then Gregory gave one last 'Up Yours' to the Provies. Impeccable timing as ever, Mr. Gregoory! Very Happy

My own view is that there is almost certainly an SF seat in DNC in Gregory's absence but I couldn't see her winning it in a by-election. The Euro seat is winnable, so she should take that and worry about the complications caused by running someone else in the by-election at the next General Election (which will be before the end of the year anyway, in my opinion). Running her in both just threatens the Euro seat as an obvious charge would be that she is not taking the MEP role seriously. No-one else from SF can seriously challenge for the MEP seat. Maybe SF should not bother running anyone in the by-election. One plan might be to run whoever she names as an alternate in the Dublin seat, so that they could take over the MEP role and she could run for the next Dáil election. Could Nicky Kehoe be tempted out of retirement, or would this reek of stroke pulling?

The Politics Gods have dealt SF a shitty hand though, there's no denying that. What would you do if you were an SF strategist here?
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PostSubject: Re: Mary Lou in a Stew   Mon Jan 26, 2009 7:55 pm

Fine Gael outpolled Mary Lou last time around so I would imagine they are also fairly confident of picking up that seat. Labour will also be confident of taking a percentage of Gregory's votes as will anyone from Gregory's organisation if they decide to field a candidate. You must remember this is a byelection, not a General Election. Whilst Sinn Féin may be in the running for a seat in that constituency when all four seats are up for grabs, when Bertie has also left the stage, topping the constituency as they would need to do in a byelection is an entirely different matter.
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PostSubject: Re: Mary Lou in a Stew   Mon Jan 26, 2009 7:58 pm

Yes, I agree she cannot win the by-election, but running someone else who then has to stand aside at the next General Election will cause the same problems she had when she replaced Nicky Kehoe. That is the SF dilemma. I'm sure they'd appreciate our input ;-)
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PostSubject: Re: Mary Lou in a Stew   Mon Jan 26, 2009 8:52 pm

She has a stronger hand in the Euro elections after her high-profile performance over Lisbon. She should stick with the MEP post as her Lisbon stint is unlikely to carry her to a Dáil seat.

To be honest they are unlikely to win the seat. I imagine both FG and Lab will be fighting pretty hard for the seat, as the current government's unpopularity and economic instability may lead to a feeling that we are nearing some kind of paradigm shift (I know there is a better term, I just can't think of it) and both opposition parties will want to be in as strong a position as possible for when this happens.
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PostSubject: Re: Mary Lou in a Stew   Mon Jan 26, 2009 9:06 pm

What FF should do here is not stand at all and ask their supporters to vote for whoever is standing in Tony's stead.
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PostSubject: Re: Mary Lou in a Stew   Tue Jan 27, 2009 1:16 am

Is that even remotely possible tonys? It might be a strategy for SF to help Mary Lou avoid this landmine of a quandary, but I can't imagine FF doing it. That said, if you can work within the party to convince FF never to stand in any election ever again, I will be very happy.
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PostSubject: Re: Mary Lou in a Stew   Tue Jan 27, 2009 1:28 am

coc wrote:
Is that even remotely possible tonys? It might be a strategy for SF to help Mary Lou avoid this landmine of a quandary, but I can't imagine FF doing it. That said, if you can work within the party to convince FF never to stand in any election ever again, I will be very happy.
Would winning an election by default not leave a sour taste or wouldn’t you notice?
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