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 Euro rocked, Cowen denies IMF Statement

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PostSubject: Re: Euro rocked, Cowen denies IMF Statement   Wed Jan 14, 2009 5:46 pm

cactus flower wrote:
I'm claiming a result - although there's more to come on this one:

Quote :
Strains on the Euro with weaker economies wanting to join and stronger currencies having the horrors about the likes of Ireland.

The Euro dropped yesterday as a result of Brian Cowen's statement in Japan that the IMF was liable to find its way to Ireland.

LONDON, Jan 14 (Reuters) - The euro stabilised from early losses on Wednesday after Ireland denied reports that its prime minister had said he may ask the International Monetary Fund for help if the economic downturn worsens.

But Irish Prime Minister Brian Cowen, speaking in an interview with Irish broadcaster RTE, endorsed the view of the country's unions that public finances are unsustainable [ID:nDUB000777]. The Irish Embassy in Tokyo, where Cowen is visiting, denied earlier reports that he said he may call in the IMF if the economic situation deteriorates [ID:nTKU003243].
Well if it's true then lets call an election tomorrow. I'll have Kenny with his military pacts over Cowen and the IMF.
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PostSubject: Re: Euro rocked, Cowen denies IMF Statement   Wed Jan 14, 2009 5:53 pm

There was an initial retraction that said that Cowen did not say he was going to call the IMF in, but coulndnt rule it out in future and then
RTE reported lunchtime that nothing, according to the Trade Union source, had been said at all.

We can make of that what we will.
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PostSubject: Re: Euro rocked, Cowen denies IMF Statement   Wed Jan 14, 2009 6:10 pm

http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1015679.shtml

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2009/0114/breaking11.htm

The Embassy denies it all

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSTKU00324320090114

Quote :
TOKYO, Jan 14 (Reuters) - A media report quoting Irish Prime Minister Brian Cowen saying his country may need to call on the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is "completely false", the Irish embassy in Tokyo said on Wednesday.

"That's complete false," said a press officer at the Irish embassy in Tokyo, where Cowen is on a trade mission. "He outlined the policies the Irish government is taking to ensure that we overcome the economic difficulties." Irish public broadcaster RTE said on its website (www.rte.ie) that Cowen had confirmed while in Tokyo that the IMF could be called in if the economy continued to worsen. The broadcaster also quoted Cowen as saying people had to 'get real' about the sharpness of the downturn. (Reporting by Chisa Fujioka; Editing by Rodney Joyce)
http://www.forbes.com/reuters/feeds/reuters/2009/01/14/2009-01-14T113211Z_01_LE156855_RTRIDST_0_IRELAND-COWEN-UPDATE-2.html

Quote :
The spokesperson stressed Mr Cowen never referred to the IMF in his comments to journalists, but had responded to recent IMF references by the General Secretary of the Public Services' Executive, Dan Murphy
.
Quote :
However, Mr Murphy today confirmed that the Taoiseach did not mention the IMF and said he had concluded himself that the IMF could be called in under certain circumstances.
http://news.ie.msn.com/article.aspx?cp-documentid=12773506

Cowen on the IMF, 2005

Quote :
Statement by the Minister for Finance, Mr Brian Cowen, TD, on the IMF 2005 Review of the Irish Economy

I wish to welcome the latest assessment by the Board of the International Monetary Fund of the Irish economy’s performance and prospects. I am pleased that the IMF has commented favourably on the continuing impressive performance of Ireland’s economy which it states is based on maintaining sound economic policies. The IMF forecast growth of 4.5% in GNP and GDP in Ireland this year. For 2006 they forecast GNP and GDP growth will rise to 4.9%.

The IMF forecasts are broadly in line with my Department’s Economic Review and Outlook published in August. These forecasts are high by international standards. My Department will, as usual, publish updated forecasts in the forthcoming Budget on December 7th. I agree with the IMF that a prudent taxation policy is a pillar of sustainable economic growth. I note the IMF’s concerns about the erosion of competitiveness, reflecting a combination of relatively high growth in wages and prices in Ireland over the last number of years. These are risks that I have frequently referred to myself. Regaining competitiveness is vital if Ireland is to maintain its economic growth going forward.

In the light of this, wage moderation is needed in the upcoming national pay talks. Any pay increases will, sooner or later, result in job losses unless they are offset by higher productivity. Creating and maintaining jobs is the Government’s highest priority. 17 October , 2005

THe best report here:

Quote :
Euro stabilises after initial fall
Ireland says debt low, taking action on deficit

By Andras Gergely and Yoko Nishikawa

DUBLIN/TOKYO, Jan 14 (Reuters) - Irish Prime Minister Brian Cowen denied reports on Wednesday he planned to call on the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to help the country's ailing economy, after a report suggesting he would knocked the euro. The euro fell more than than a cent against the dollar on Wednesday morning after Irish public broadcaster RTE reported Cowen had said Ireland may need IMF help if its economic prospects continue to deteriorate. RTE initially said on its Web site: "Brian Cowen has confirmed that the International Monetary Fund could be called in if the economy continues to worsen".

The Irish Embassy in Japan, where Cowen is on a visit, Cowen's office in Ireland and Cowen himself, moved swiftly to deny the report which was picked up by other media outlets.
"I have never said that," Cowen told Reuters in Tokyo when asked about the report. "We are a member of the euro area and we have the best-performing economy in the last 10 years in the European Union," he said before attending a reception at a Tokyo hotel.

The euro stabilised from early losses after the denials. The furore over what it called "inaccurate reports" led Ireland's finance ministry to issue a statement stressing its net debt position was relatively low by global comparison. The ministry also reiterated it was determined to cut the country's budget deficit to ensure the stability and sustainability of public finances.
"In assessing Ireland's ability to address the challenges ahead it is important to note that Ireland's net debt position of 20 percent of GDP at end 2008 is relatively low," a spokesman said in a statement. The former "Celtic Tiger" has suffered a stunning reversal of fortune as a domestic property crash and global slump plunged it into recession, forcing the state to bail out the three largest banks and borrow heavily to fund spending.

Ratings agency Standard & Poor's warned on Friday it may cut Ireland's AAA sovereign debt rating due to worsening public finances [ID:nL9497790]

NOT IN NEED

Cowen's office in Dublin said that any discussion of the IMF in recent talks with trade unions had referred to the 1980s when Ireland was one of the poorest countries in western Europe.
Analysts said Ireland was far off needing IMF help. "There is no indication that there is a lack of appetite from investors to buy Irish government bonds," said Oliver Mangan, Chief Bond Economist at AIB Global Treasury. "Contrast that with the 1980s when we had a debt to GDP ratio of 120 percent here, with frequent currency devaluations ... The situation was far, far, far worse then, and we managed to get out of it, (there is) no comparison." Irish 10-year government bonds underperformed benchmark German Bunds on Wednesday, sending the yield spread to a fresh historic wide on worries about further deterioration in the country's public finances.

The IMF has already provided support to countries including Iceland, and European Union members Hungary and Latvia to help them deal with the consequences of a global economic downturn. [ID:nLG289182]
(Writing by Paul Hoskins and Jodie Ginsberg; editing by Patrick Graham)

This article points out that both the Standard and Poors view and the underperformance of Irish government bonds created a situation in which the markets were well ready to believe the IMF was on its way.
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PostSubject: Re: Euro rocked, Cowen denies IMF Statement   Wed Jan 14, 2009 7:02 pm

I don't know whetehr to laugh or cry at all this. Whoever is to blame, RT(bleedin' useless)É or an Taoiseach, it is truly staggering the level of incompetence and plain stupidity in government circles at this time.

It is time we, the people, got to pass judgement on this joke of a government. It's time for a general election, now.
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PostSubject: Re: Euro rocked, Cowen denies IMF Statement   Wed Jan 14, 2009 7:44 pm

I don't think one can designate RTE journalists as being within Government circles.

Also, I think that the Government moved quickly and decisively to quell the angst and the markets reflect this.
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PostSubject: Re: Euro rocked, Cowen denies IMF Statement   Wed Jan 14, 2009 7:56 pm

Desmond O'Toole wrote:
I don't know whetehr to laugh or cry at all this. Whoever is to blame, RT(bleedin' useless)É or an Taoiseach, it is truly staggering the level of incompetence and plain stupidity in government circles at this time.

It is time we, the people, got to pass judgement on this joke of a government. It's time for a general election, now.
You got your now 18 months ago and you'll get your next one when they decide to give it to you or in 3 years plus, whichever.
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PostSubject: Re: Euro rocked, Cowen denies IMF Statement   Wed Jan 14, 2009 8:00 pm

Now we know how the Americans felt for the last 10 years with a crap government and a know nothing leader who is only there because of his family name. But we cant do anything about it for another 3 years.
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PostSubject: Re: Euro rocked, Cowen denies IMF Statement   Wed Jan 14, 2009 8:05 pm

tonys wrote:
Desmond O'Toole wrote:
I don't know whetehr to laugh or cry at all this. Whoever is to blame, RT(bleedin' useless)É or an Taoiseach, it is truly staggering the level of incompetence and plain stupidity in government circles at this time.

It is time we, the people, got to pass judgement on this joke of a government. It's time for a general election, now.
You got your now 18 months ago and you'll get your next one when they decide to give it to you or in 3 years plus, whichever.

Albert might have said that too (and as it happens I had a degree of sympathy for Albert and little for Dick Spring), and look where it would have got him.

The old trick of four years of agony and then drop a pill in the drinking water the night before the election may not work this time.
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PostSubject: Re: Euro rocked, Cowen denies IMF Statement   Wed Jan 14, 2009 8:43 pm

Zhou_Enlai wrote:
I don't think one can designate RTE journalists as being within Government circles.

Also, I think that the Government moved quickly and decisively to quell the angst and the markets reflect this.

RTÉ journos aren't, of course, but I hold the government responsible for this sort of p*ss-poor media management. The issue of the State's finances and what this means for borrowing, taxation and spending is far too important to allow this sort of scare to propagate through the international media.

The news skills of RTÉ's journos are not exactly the sort that would impress most people and that organisation must shoulder some of the blame for this incompetence. But managing messages about the State's finances and the impact these may have on currency markets is emphatically the goernment's job. The fact that the government moved quickly to correct the record does not excuse the fact that they allowed this scare to develop because of sloppy briefings.
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PostSubject: Re: Euro rocked, Cowen denies IMF Statement   Wed Jan 14, 2009 8:45 pm

The assumption being that if its true we shouldn't mention it not to frighten the horses?
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PostSubject: Re: Euro rocked, Cowen denies IMF Statement   Wed Jan 14, 2009 8:49 pm

Art wrote:
Now we know how the Americans felt for the last 10 years with a crap government and a know nothing leader who is only there because of his family name. But we cant do anything about it for another 3 years.

Whoever thought that when one village idiot left the White House another would enter Tithe an Rialtais. We can't afford to wait another three years to throw these clowns out. That's why we need a GE now.

We shall wait and see what the next few months bring when the government's kite-flying on slashing public sector pay and jobs meets the reality of stiff union resistance and when a know-nothing government flails helplessly in the face of the economic catastrophe their own decisions have brought down upon us.
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PostSubject: Re: Euro rocked, Cowen denies IMF Statement   Wed Jan 14, 2009 8:53 pm

cactus flower wrote:
The assumption being that if its true we shouldn't mention it not to frighten the horses?

I take your point, CF, but in this situation of profound economic crisis preremptory or speculative comments are the last thing you should be doing. There is currently no risk at all of the shortfall in government recepits provoking a call to the IMF. Raising the prospect of such a call in a the loose and badly-managed way the government has is astonishingly poor judgement and dreadful leadership.
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PostSubject: Re: Euro rocked, Cowen denies IMF Statement   Wed Jan 14, 2009 9:05 pm

Desmond O'Toole wrote:
cactus flower wrote:
The assumption being that if its true we shouldn't mention it not to frighten the horses?

I take your point, CF, but in this situation of profound economic crisis preremptory or speculative comments are the last thing you should be doing. There is currently no risk at all of the shortfall in government recepits provoking a call to the IMF. Raising the prospect of such a call in a the loose and badly-managed way the government has is astonishingly poor judgement and dreadful leadership.

You wouldn’t care to explain at all how the Government might go about media managing something they didn’t say.
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PostSubject: Re: Euro rocked, Cowen denies IMF Statement   Wed Jan 14, 2009 9:25 pm

tonys wrote:

You wouldn’t care to explain at all how the Government might go about media managing something they didn’t say.

By getting on and talking with the social partners rather than allowing them to be drawn into discussions where off the cuff remarks are more likely to be said. I've heard that Cowen will be meeting with the social partners since December - why doesn't he get on an do it. Everything in this system takes far far far too long to get going and then vital decisions are made far far far too quickly.
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PostSubject: Re: Euro rocked, Cowen denies IMF Statement   Wed Jan 14, 2009 9:43 pm

johnfás wrote:
tonys wrote:

You wouldn’t care to explain at all how the Government might go about media managing something they didn’t say.

By getting on and talking with the social partners rather than allowing them to be drawn into discussions where off the cuff remarks are more likely to be said. I've heard that Cowen will be meeting with the social partners since December - why doesn't he get on an do it. Everything in this system takes far far far too long to get going and then vital decisions are made far far far too quickly.
He has been meeting them since December and he's right to take his time getting all his ducks in a row before making his move. We will probably only get one shot at getting this right, it's worth spending time on.
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PostSubject: Re: Euro rocked, Cowen denies IMF Statement   Wed Jan 14, 2009 10:13 pm

Compare and contrast-

Reuters:
Quote :
The euro stabilised from early
losses on Wednesday after Ireland denied reports that its prime
minister had said he may ask the International Monetary Fund for
help if the economic downturn worsens.


But Irish Prime Minister Brian Cowen, speaking in an
interview with Irish broadcaster RTE, endorsed the view of the
country's unions that public finances are unsustainable

RTE:
Quote :
The euro fell more than a cent against the dollar this morning.
While some have attributed this to the RTÉ report, market sources say
it would not have a material effect on the foreign currency market.
Instead analysts believe this morning's drop was due to poor German
economic figures and expectations that the ECB may cut interest rates
tomorrow.

You can almost feel the squirming embarrassment of RTE as they try to absolve themselves of blame!
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PostSubject: Re: Euro rocked, Cowen denies IMF Statement   Wed Jan 14, 2009 10:16 pm

tonys wrote:
Desmond O'Toole wrote:
cactus flower wrote:
The assumption being that if its true we shouldn't mention it not to frighten the horses?

I take your point, CF, but in this situation of profound economic crisis preremptory or speculative comments are the last thing you should be doing. There is currently no risk at all of the shortfall in government recepits provoking a call to the IMF. Raising the prospect of such a call in a the loose and badly-managed way the government has is astonishingly poor judgement and dreadful leadership.

You wouldn’t care to explain at all how the Government might go about media managing something they didn’t say.

Stop playing the innocent, Tony. You know right well. If an error like that is broadcast where were the government monitors? The government spends millions every year monitoring every spoken word on every radio and television station. The second it was made it should have been spotted, and a phone call put in to the producer on duty saying 'get that corrected this instant. It could do untold economic damage'. FF used to be so good at it they once got the running order on a news bulletin changed while the titles were running, to get a story critical of FF buried late in the bulletin rather than as the lead story. The bulletin was pulled off the air for 3 minutes with supposed 'technical difficulties' and then came back with an entirely different lead story to the one that had led the opening credits.

RTE fucked up, but that happens in broadcasting. The job of a competent government is to spot any errors that could do economic damage and let the broadcaster know there is a catastrophic and very dangerous error that needs to be instantly corrected. The media management team in Dublin should have been on to Tokyo instantly to the government press secretary and have him issue a denial within 5 minutes, if necessary getting Cowen to go on the radio show straight away. Yet him out of his bed, his bath, the toilet or wherever and denying denying denying. And then you have your team contact Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, AP at management level (not journalists) to inform them that if their stringer in Dublin phoned in or emailed a story based on the RTE error, they would know not to use it. The stringer reacts instantly, often turning down the radio while you do your copy, so may not hear the denial. So you go to the key sources to warn them that any story they receive is due to an RTE error, has been corrected, but if repeated without a basis could create a crisis where one didn't exist.

It is basic news management - get facts correctly quickly. Get catastrophic errors corrected instantly by every and all means.

Just how incompetent is the government when they cannot even handle a mistake in a news bulletin effectively? Who the hell is in government these days, Basil Fawlty?
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PostSubject: Re: Euro rocked, Cowen denies IMF Statement   Wed Jan 14, 2009 10:30 pm

Papal Knight wrote:
tonys wrote:
Desmond O'Toole wrote:
cactus flower wrote:
The assumption being that if its true we shouldn't mention it not to frighten the horses?

I take your point, CF, but in this situation of profound economic crisis preremptory or speculative comments are the last thing you should be doing. There is currently no risk at all of the shortfall in government recepits provoking a call to the IMF. Raising the prospect of such a call in a the loose and badly-managed way the government has is astonishingly poor judgement and dreadful leadership.

You wouldn’t care to explain at all how the Government might go about media managing something they didn’t say.

Stop playing the innocent, Tony. You know right well. If an error like that is broadcast where were the government monitors? The government spends millions every year monitoring every spoken word on every radio and television station. The second it was made it should have been spotted, and a phone call put in to the producer on duty saying 'get that corrected this instant. It could do untold economic damage'. FF used to be so good at it they once got the running order on a news bulletin changed while the titles were running, to get a story critical of FF buried late in the bulletin rather than as the lead story. The bulletin was pulled off the air for 3 minutes with supposed 'technical difficulties' and then came back with an entirely different lead story to the one that had led the opening credits.

RTE fucked up, but that happens in broadcasting. The job of a competent government is to spot any errors that could do economic damage and let the broadcaster know there is a catastrophic and very dangerous error that needs to be instantly corrected. The media management team in Dublin should have been on to Tokyo instantly to the government press secretary and have him issue a denial within 5 minutes, if necessary getting Cowen to go on the radio show straight away. Yet him out of his bed, his bath, the toilet or wherever and denying denying denying. And then you have your team contact Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, AP at management level (not journalists) to inform them that if their stringer in Dublin phoned in or emailed a story based on the RTE error, they would know not to use it. The stringer reacts instantly, often turning down the radio while you do your copy, so may not hear the denial. So you go to the key sources to warn them that any story they receive is due to an RTE error, has been corrected, but if repeated without a basis could create a crisis where one didn't exist.

It is basic news management - get facts correctly quickly. Get catastrophic errors corrected instantly by every and all means.

Just how incompetent is the government when they cannot even handle a mistake in a news bulletin effectively? Who the hell is in government these days, Basil Fawlty?
That has got to be just about the weakest argument I've ever heard.

If Basil is in government, he's some man for double jobbing. I heard him today say only public sector workers earning above 100,000 a year should have a pay cut and would the rest mind very much if they didn't get a raise until the end of 2010, he wasn't sure how much that would help but he thought he should say something.
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PostSubject: Re: Euro rocked, Cowen denies IMF Statement   Wed Jan 14, 2009 11:39 pm

I 'ate to sound like a conspiracy theorist.... but would a little bit of a plummet in the euro exchange rate really do us that much harm??

Ireland is a small country; I suspect the drop may have more to do with the ECB rate cuts.

Given that the US banks among others seem to be queuing up for more money again, are we really so much worse than everyone else?? Or is it just that, unlike the US and MAYBE the UK, we are not too large to be allowed to fail??

The application of uneven standards....
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PostSubject: Re: Euro rocked, Cowen denies IMF Statement   Wed Jan 14, 2009 11:48 pm

expat girl wrote:
I 'ate to sound like a conspiracy theorist.... but would a little bit of a plummet in the euro exchange rate really do us that much harm??

Ireland is a small country; I suspect the drop may have more to do with the ECB rate cuts.

Given that the US banks among others seem to be queuing up for more money again, are we really so much worse than everyone else?? Or is it just that, unlike the US and MAYBE the UK, we are not too large to be allowed to fail??

The application of uneven standards....

There's a lot in that post !

Ireland and the IMF rocking the Euro currency ? As someone said, what's going to happen when Spain and Italy start mentioning the IMF so?
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PostSubject: Re: Euro rocked, Cowen denies IMF Statement   Thu Jan 15, 2009 4:50 pm

Auditor #9 wrote:
expat girl wrote:
I 'ate to sound like a conspiracy theorist.... but would a little bit of a plummet in the euro exchange rate really do us that much harm??

Ireland is a small country; I suspect the drop may have more to do with the ECB rate cuts.

Given that the US banks among others seem to be queuing up for more money again, are we really so much worse than everyone else?? Or is it just that, unlike the US and MAYBE the UK, we are not too large to be allowed to fail??

The application of uneven standards....

There's a lot in that post !

Ireland and the IMF rocking the Euro currency ? As someone said, what's going to happen when Spain and Italy start mentioning the IMF so?


The ECB took 0.5% off the base rate. As expected. No real effect in the forex market as this had been priced in. Biffo can move the Euro around more effectively than the ECB.
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PostSubject: Re: Euro rocked, Cowen denies IMF Statement   Thu Jan 15, 2009 5:17 pm

johnfás wrote:
tonys wrote:

You wouldn’t care to explain at all how the Government might go about media managing something they didn’t say.

By getting on and talking with the social partners rather than allowing them to be drawn into discussions where off the cuff remarks are more likely to be said. I've heard that Cowen will be meeting with the social partners since December - why doesn't he get on an do it. Everything in this system takes far far far too long to get going and then vital decisions are made far far far too quickly.

Well johnfás - the problem is, they had. The conversation went something like this....


DAN MURPHY " So, Biffo, if we don't roll over and let you cut wages, jobs and pensions, the IMF will ?

BIFFO: "Yes."


(or, in journalese):
Quote :
The spokesperson stressed Mr Cowen never referred to the IMF in his comments to journalists, but had responded to recent IMF references by the General Secretary of the Public Services' Executive, Dan Murphy...
However, Mr Murphy today confirmed that the Taoiseach did not mention the IMF and said he had concluded himself that the IMF could be called in under certain circumstances.
http://news.ie.msn.com/article.aspx?cp-documentid=12773506
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PostSubject: Re: Euro rocked, Cowen denies IMF Statement   Thu Jan 15, 2009 5:22 pm

Slim Buddha wrote:
The ECB took 0.5% off the base rate. As expected. No real effect in the forex market as this had been priced in. Biffo can move the Euro around more effectively than the ECB.
Very Happy

It could have been RTE's fault though, according to the Star today
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PostSubject: Re: Euro rocked, Cowen denies IMF Statement   Thu Jan 15, 2009 5:26 pm

"Errrhmm...
Quote :
The spokesperson stressed Mr Cowen never referred to the IMF in his comments to journalists, but had responded to recent IMF references by the General Secretary of the Public Services' Executive, Dan Murphy
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PostSubject: Re: Euro rocked, Cowen denies IMF Statement   Thu Jan 15, 2009 5:33 pm

Willie O'Dea sounded pretty convincing last night on the News when he said we're extremely far away from the situation where the IMF will come in and loot what's left.

I think he's right and I hope this drives us a bit closer to Europe now. The ECB is our daddy now and hopefully will start printing soon. As long as we create good public jobs here, they shouldn't stop shovelling us over some moolah while there still is a shovel to lift.
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