Spurred by the recent spate of predictions - and not at all put off by one of them being discredited already - I’ve decided to raw up a list of forthcoming elections in the wide world. Here’s a great website for gathering info on this sort of thing: link
Anyway, here’s a list of elections I think are important, for one reason or another, and how I think they’ll go.
Afghanistan – Presidential: September.
Very hard to say, apparently the only one to announce he’s running is the current president: Hamid Karzai. He has strong international backing, though is becoming unpopular at home as strife continues. My money’s on him being re-elected.
Bolivia – Constitutional Referendum: 25 January.
Bolivia was meant to have this referendum ages ago, but the current date is for the end of this month. It will decide whether the various changes to the constitution will become law. Issues like indigenous rights and state ownership of resources are in question. I predict that the referendum will pass, though not without an awful amount of trouble and plenty of allegations of foul play.
EU – EU parliament elections: 4-7th June.
Couldn’t say what will happen there.
India – Parliamentary: April.
This is an interesting one. The current government has come under a lot of criticism, from their main rivals the Hindu Nationalist group BJP, about the recent terrorist attacks. But it is questionable whether terrorism is that big an issue to the masses. Things like crime are a bigger issue there, but the government’s been takes to task on such issues as well. I have a dislike of the BJP but I suspect they will win the election, or get very close. Then youngdan will have a field day.
Israel - Parliamentary: 10th February.
The ruling Kadima party against the more hawkish Likud party. I hope and pray that Kadima hang in there; bad as they are, they’re more dovish than the Likud boyos. Polls generally put Likud slightly ahead, but these are turbulent times. It has been argued that the current conflict in the region is part of a ploy by Kadima to show they’re not as wimpy as Likud make them out to be. Either way, the war might help their chances of a re-election. It could mess it up altogether though if the fighting goes wrong somehow.
Iran – Presidential: 12th June.
Very hard to say what’s going on there. Presidential candidates are picked by the Ayatollah’s council of guardians, but I don’t know if they’ve approved or disapproved of anyone yet. Wiki has produced a list of potential candidates: wiki Generally it falls between a conservative fellow, like Ahmadinejad, and a more moderate figure. Ahmadinejad has become more unpopular as the economy has gone down the drain and the sanctions are starting to bite. I can’t better this analysis: link
I suspect Ahmedinejad will be kicked out. He’s become something of a clown and Iranians are not going to want a clown in charge. I think they will not be happy with the isolationist direction he’s taken the country. God knows how effective a moderate/reformer will be though.
Overall, here’s an interesting article on this years elections: link