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 Dept of Finance - Inability to Project Tax Take

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PostSubject: Dept of Finance - Inability to Project Tax Take   Thu Dec 18, 2008 2:27 pm

The officials in the Dept of Finance were consistently billion out with their predicted tax take during boom times. Now they are again billions out with their predicted tax take during recessionary times.

Has any one other European finance dept been as inaccurate over the last ten years?

How can we prepare a budget at all with such inaccuracy? How can such a Dept suggest a credible recovery plan?
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PostSubject: Re: Dept of Finance - Inability to Project Tax Take   Thu Dec 18, 2008 2:38 pm

Good question. I think we would find that predictions on P.ie and here have consistently been far more accurate than the Department of Finance or ESRI.

Wishful thinking linked to spin seems to predominate.

As we saw yesterday with the HSE fiasco, it makes budgeting impossible.

We are now in a downward spiral, and it is increasingly difficult to predict.
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PostSubject: Re: Dept of Finance - Inability to Project Tax Take   Mon Jan 05, 2009 11:37 pm

Lenihan: "Tax Revenues at €40,777 million were €8.1 billion below profile. The further deterioration in tax receipts since Budget day reflects the worsening economic circumstances over the last number of months."

€8.1 billion out giving an effective error margin of 20%. Could they actually do worse? I remember there being serious pessimism around this time last year. An €8.1 billion shortfall cannot be an acceptable prediction error. Lehman brothers didn't collapse until September. What was their worst case scenario? I suggest that we either replace these "forecasters" or we abandon predicting tax take alogether.
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