Lisbon II And the Government (split from Legal Challenge to First Legal Treaty)

hmmm

I guess the legal eagles here are technically right -there is no constitutional bar against holding a second referendum - but for pure publicity value I think Patricia will probably go ahead and challenge it - no need to worry about legal costs - some of her fellow travellers have very deep pockets. It will fail - but it doesnt get around the fact that reholding the referendum is, IMO, on thin ice politically speaking.

the fact of the matter is that 53% of the electorate who bothered to turn out for the referendum last year voted no - doesn't matter why they did, or the mad reasons they did so - they voted No - period.

While the Dail may appear to be solidly pro-lisbon in its make up currently - in light of the referendum - its political legitimacy to decide to have another go is seriously in question - IMO It has no mandate to rerun the Lisbon Treaty by the Irish electorate again while the current Dail still sits.

While I can understand the current Govs' desperate scramble around to try and get the treaty passed - I understand the negative implications for this country if we do not pass this treaty - Its a pity they didn't show such urgency in the fucking first place - and that goes to the nub of whole issue IMO.

At this moment in time - the country wants this current Government gone - with the greatest of respect to Tonys, Zhou and Baldur etc etc - The electorate in general at this moment in time wouldn't trust the current government to boil an egg properly - they would manage to screw that up as well - their modus operandi has been brutally exposed over the last year - ie there is no real plan bar getting past the winning post at the next election and there is no longer the cover of throwing money to cover up the issues - thus the managerial incompetence,indecision,u-turns and the plain and simple fact that they really haven't a clue what they are at - is now there for all to see.

Now look at the whole Lisbon Fandango - The other 26 are prepared to wait for us - that's generous of them - have no idea why they should be bothered -we are in no position to look at this treaty objectively - this whole country should be quarantined and a big sign that can be read from space should be erected saying "Nation undergoing treatment - severe mental breakdown underway - leave a message after the beep" - FF are doing their usual stunt of trying to patch something together on the back of a fag packet to get the treaty passed - The "guarantees" they got in relation to Lisbon at the last summit - Whats the fucking point? - the issues they relate to are/are not in treaty anyway - does the Government think we are that thick that we cant read the treaty (Well they may have a point here in all fairness) - It doesn't get around the fact that the government have lost the trust of the people and IMO are incapable of getting this treaty passed- as they are incapable of anything that might require a bit of sophistication and explaining and talking about a long term picture.

So - I believe a General Election is now essential before we should go anywhere near Lisbon - there is no mandate to rerun this treaty at this moment in time - If a dail is re-elected with enough pro-lisbon deputies to allow a rerun - fair enough - there is no democratic deficit argument to be made then. If not - we should be honest and say to our European Partners - "Lads we're simply not a position to make a final decision as to the Lisbon Treaty - count us out for the moment - if ye want to go ahead with it or something similar - well fair enough and we might catch up yis in a few years or so"(don't worry about the rest of the EU -we didn't vote No for them) and bite the bullet and face up to the consequences of the No vote - we voted for it - now we have to take it - I know its totally against the ethos of Fianna Fail to take anything except financial donations - but maybe a bit of time out of the mainstream and out in the long grass might be exactly what we need in this country at the moment - IMO and the last year has proved me right in so many ways - The Irish electorate, in general is about as pro-active as an ameoba - we need the stimulus of real pain to get off our asses to get up and start addressing our problems in a sane logical manner.

Well said Edo.

I don't want a general election yet though. This government has a whole lot more shite that they're capable of doling out. Maybe then folks in general will get the message?

Good points Edo, but it is hard for FG to call for a General Election when their putative coalition partners, Labour have indicated their clear opposition to re-running of the Lisbon referendum. Perhaps Labour should reverse this position to heap on the pressure.

Either way, Lisbon is shaping up as Cowen's Waterloo and that very fact may contribute to its failure. Possible scenarios are as follows:

1. Pre Lisbon polls are dire and Cowen resigns. FF stay on.
2. Lisbon fails and Cowen resigns. FF stay on or Greens say a General election is necessary or FF backbenchers and independents fall into disarray.
3. Lisbon succeeds and Government struggle on.

Cowen is playing Russian Roulette at this stage but even resignation or a General Election may not substantially increase the chances of the referendum being passed.

Edo wrote:

At this moment in time - the country wants this current Government gone - with the greatest of respect to Tonys, Zhou and Baldur etc etc - The electorate in general at this moment in time wouldn't trust the current government to boil an egg properly - they would manage to screw that up as well - their modus operandi has been brutally exposed over the last year - ie there is no real plan bar getting past the winning post at the next election and there is no longer the cover of throwing money to cover up the issues - thus the managerial incompetence,indecision,u-turns and the plain and simple fact that they really haven't a clue what they are at - is now there for all to see..

Can’t agree there, I think if there was a general election in the next three/four weeks the Government as is would stand a better than even chance of being re-elected, now that may only be because there doesn’t seem to be any viable or certainly any inspirational alternative on offer, but in the few weeks before Christmas and since, the main complaint I hear about the Government would be that they have been too slow to dish out the pain that everyone knows is coming.
I am not being partisan here, that is genuinely what I’ve been hearing from non political Joe & Josephine.

For Lisbon, we’ll have to be much closer to the date to know what the influences might be.

PS. With the greatest & all due respect, please take all references to FF and financial donations and shove them where the sun don’t shine.

Lots of love and all the best for now.

It seems to me that FG have run out of steam. Varadker and Reilly have no digested their Christmas pud. Bruton is dishing it out but he will probably be contradicted by Kenny the next time a party policy is set. Also, his calls for immediate recapitalisation weeks ago and then criticising the detail of recapitalisation when it happens makes him look like a flip-flopper. The inconsistencies on targets and redundancies in the public sector also inspires no confidence. On the other hand, I think that Labour have been consistent and smart.

Perhaps this could be split to another thread entitled "Lisbon II and the Government" starting with Edo's post. I think the suggestion that it may be illegal to have a second referendum has been comprehensively dealt with and should not occupy any further bandwidth.

[mod] Split from Legal Challenge to Second Lisbon Treaty Thread at This Post [mod]

Should have asked ye are ye all agreed I should split the thread .. oops. Easy enough to glue it back together if ye're not in agreement there.

So this portion will be about how the Government or Dáil will approach the Second Lisbon Referendum or something else ? Is it beyond a shadow of a doubt now that there will be no successful challenge to a Second Referendum ? If so the first thread is over alright.

Zhou_Enlai wrote:

Good points Edo, but it is hard for FG to call for a General Election when their putative coalition partners, Labour have indicated their clear opposition to re-running of the Lisbon referendum. Perhaps Labour should reverse this position to heap on the pressure.

I'm not so sure that Labour has "indicated their clear opposition to re-running of the Lisbon referendum." At the time of the last European Council meeting and the publication of the government's "plans" for Lisbon II, Joe Costello, Labour's spokesperson on European Affairs, expressed serious concerns at the government's de-emphasising of the workers' rights elements of the Lisbon Treaty. He said: (Irish Times 15th December 2008)

Quote :

Joe Costello, speaking at a conference in Dublin, gave the first firm indication that, at this moment in time, the Government cannot rely on Labour supporting the second Lisbon referendum. He referred to party leader Eamon Gilmore's comments following the referendum result in June that Labour will oppose a second referendum unless there are significant advances and amendments in the new proposals that will be put to the Irish people.

"As it stands, we are not satisfied that there are significant advances to this area of greatest concern to us," he said.
He continued that the party had yet to receive full details and confirmation from Taoiseach Brian Cowen as to what had been agreed at the Brussels summit last week as regards workers' rights.

"We have not got a final answer. We need to get confirmation from the Taoiseach as to what has been agreed," he said.
"If there's no progress in [securing] assurances and guarantees to workers rights and services, then we do not see the value in having a second referendum," he said.

Notwithstanding these coments Labour continue to stand over its arguments that the Lisbon Treaty represents a significant advance for European solidarity, effectiveness and democratisation.

Last time out the Government had a big problem with the message. It was defensive, confusing and patronising. Next time, communicating the message will be complicated further by problems with the messenger itself. If the Government want to make a serious effort to secure a yes vote then they need to recognise their own frailty and empower other groups to communicate the benefits (if there are any) to their members and affiliates in a targeted, customised way. A one-size fits all approach just won't work and the Government proved last time out that they are incapable of running a coherent campaign.

Ok then

Well to answer both Zhou and Tonys -

The Rubicon has been crossed in the peoples minds as to this governments competence - the one thing they had going for them and the one doubt that won them the last general election was the appearance of economic competence and their ability to paint FG and Labour as a "Tax and spend" lot ( total and utter hypocrisy I know - but Im not going down that road now).

This has been well and truly shattered over the last 8 months - I dont see how they can recover from it - especially when even the Taoiseach is optimistically looking at 2011 before there is any recovery - the recapitalisation of the banks was well and truly botched - they'll be back looking for more by the time March is out - I guarantee it - Bruton was well within his rights to state so and every other economic commentator agreed with him. It is like when the doctor tells you that your infection is bad enough that it will require a run of antibiotics and when you get the prescription you go to the pharmacists and tell them to cut the dosage by 65% because you're too tight to pay for the full course and anyway you think you're starting to feel better anyway - complete and utter waste of time.

No FF have had their Tory 1992 moment - they have lost the one thing that kept them in power - the economic card - throw in weariness with the same old faces, the usual blundering which you could get away with before - the appearance of being up shit creek without a paddle ( the projected tax deficit was 3 billion in October,4.5 billion in November, 5.5 billion by the beginning of Dec, 6.5 billion the second week of December, 7 Billon by Christmas and now finally 8 billion on new years day!! - FFS lads) - the confidence is gone - its like when a football team finally lose confidence in the manager - he might have the ability to get them out of the fix - but the players just dont believe it anymore and want a change at the top - thats what FF are facing - The fear of change is gone - in fact there is a real hunger for change there - things couldn't possibly get anyworse under a new set of characters.

Sad but true and thats why I feel FG should oppose the rerunning of the Lisbon treaty in the absence of a General election - its the right thing to do and also the politically savvy thing to do to - Europe will always be there - and there is no point now that we are finally putting some clear blue water between us and FF on a growing number of issues to tie ourselves to that sinking ship and allow FF as usual to paint all parties as the same as themselves.

Labour's position may bemore nuanced now. That was not the case previously.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2008/0613/eulisbonreax.html
"'The Lisbon Treaty is now dead' was the stark assessment by Labour leader Eamon Gilmore."

http://www.labour.ie/lisbonreformtreaty/press/listing/1213799322442485.html
Joe Costelloe - Wednesday 18 June, 2008:
"A high turnout of the electorate and a substantial margin of victory mean that the Treaty of Lisbon is dead.....
Finally, Leas Ceann Comhairle we cannot re-run Lisbon. Let us reflect and move on."

http://www.labour.ie/youth/policy/index/122701895725560.html
Labour Youth Conference Motions Passed:
"Conference believes:
- That the Lisbon Treaty is dead
- That the democratic will of the people should be accepted and that no re-run of this referendum should occur in any form.
....
Conference agrees with the Party Leader:
That this Treaty is now dead."

Edo wrote:

Ok then

Well to answer both Zhou and Tonys -

The Rubicon has been crossed in the peoples minds as to this governments competence - the one thing they had going for them and the one doubt that won them the last general election was the appearance of economic competence and their ability to paint FG and Labour as a "Tax and spend" lot ( total and utter hypocrisy I know - but Im not going down that road now).

This has been well and truly shattered over the last 8 months - I dont see how they can recover from it - especially when even the Taoiseach is optimistically looking at 2011 before there is any recovery - the recapitalisation of the banks was well and truly botched - they'll be back looking for more by the time March is out - I guarantee it - Bruton was well within his rights to state so and every other economic commentator agreed with him. It is like when the doctor tells you that your infection is bad enough that it will require a run of antibiotics and when you get the prescription you go to the pharmacists and tell them to cut the dosage by 65% because you're too tight to pay for the full course and anyway you think you're starting to feel better anyway - complete and utter waste of time.

No FF have had their Tory 1992 moment - they have lost the one thing that kept them in power - the economic card - throw in weariness with the same old faces, the usual blundering which you could get away with before - the appearance of being up shit creek without a paddle ( the projected tax deficit was 3 billion in October,4.5 billion in November, 5.5 billion by the beginning of Dec, 6.5 billion the second week of December, 7 Billon by Christmas and now finally 8 billion on new years day!! - FFS lads) - the confidence is gone - its like when a football team finally lose confidence in the manager - he might have the ability to get them out of the fix - but the players just dont believe it anymore and want a change at the top - thats what FF are facing - The fear of change is gone - in fact there is a real hunger for change there - things couldn't possibly get anyworse under a new set of characters.

Sad but true and thats why I feel FG should oppose the rerunning of the Lisbon treaty in the absence of a General election - its the right thing to do and also the politically savvy thing to do to - Europe will always be there - and there is no point now that we are finally putting some clear blue water between us and FF on a growing number of issues to tie ourselves to that sinking ship and allow FF as usual to paint all parties as the same as themselves.

We all have our opinion and yours is as good as anyboby's, which is to say if it doesn't agree with mine, it's not worth shit.
On your post I will say only this, if FF EVER paint themselves the same as FG, myself & all my troops are off.

I don't know whether the "hunger for change" really affects that many, though, as yet. A GE that returned an even lamer version of the current government wouldn't be any improvement. I can see a certain logic in the idea of FG opposing a second referendum without a GE, but I will say that would lose them a lot of brownie points they gained for their campaign last June, and make them look like yet another bunch of opportunists using Lisbon to their own advantage.

My own view is that FG shouldn't have to handle this bit of the curve. The news will get steadily worse for a good while - let FF handle it, and see what can be done about a Rainbow in time to put the country back on an upward curve.

lisbon is not the correct vehicle to pass judgment on the current administration.

nor will the homosexual abortionists draft your sons into a superarmy which will steal irish cod.

zakalwe wrote:

lisbon is not the correct vehicle to pass judgment on the current administration.

nor will the homosexual abortionists draft your sons into a superarmy which will steal irish cod.

No. The cod is already gone.

Zhou_Enlai wrote:

Labour's position may bemore nuanced now. That was not the case previously.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2008/0613/eulisbonreax.html
"'The Lisbon Treaty is now dead' was the stark assessment by Labour leader Eamon Gilmore."

http://www.labour.ie/lisbonreformtreaty/press/listing/1213799322442485.html
Joe Costelloe - Wednesday 18 June, 2008:
"A high turnout of the electorate and a substantial margin of victory mean that the Treaty of Lisbon is dead.....
Finally, Leas Ceann Comhairle we cannot re-run Lisbon. Let us reflect and move on."

http://www.labour.ie/youth/policy/index/122701895725560.html
Labour Youth Conference Motions Passed:
"Conference believes:
- That the Lisbon Treaty is dead
- That the democratic will of the people should be accepted and that no re-run of this referendum should occur in any form.
....
Conference agrees with the Party Leader:
That this Treaty is now dead."

Gilmore must be mighty sour he backed the wrong horse.

evercloserunion wrote:

Zhou_Enlai wrote:

Labour's position may bemore nuanced now. That was not the case previously.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2008/0613/eulisbonreax.html
"'The Lisbon Treaty is now dead' was the stark assessment by Labour leader Eamon Gilmore."

http://www.labour.ie/lisbonreformtreaty/press/listing/1213799322442485.html
Joe Costelloe - Wednesday 18 June, 2008:
"A high turnout of the electorate and a substantial margin of victory mean that the Treaty of Lisbon is dead.....
Finally, Leas Ceann Comhairle we cannot re-run Lisbon. Let us reflect and move on."

http://www.labour.ie/youth/policy/index/122701895725560.html
Labour Youth Conference Motions Passed:
"Conference believes:
- That the Lisbon Treaty is dead
- That the democratic will of the people should be accepted and that no re-run of this referendum should occur in any form.
....
Conference agrees with the Party Leader:
That this Treaty is now dead."

Gilmore must be mighty sour he backed the wrong horse.

He showed political naivety as much as anything else.

I'm getting the feeling that Lisbon II will be passed in a landslide.

The way things are going there has to be a fear that other countries might get cold feet about Lisbon if the economic crisis in the EU and in the Eurozone increases. Does Mary Lou still think we will get a better deal in a renegotiation?