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 The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond /

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PostSubject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond /   Sat Dec 20, 2008 4:13 am

I'm putting this guy's weekly youtube here as he'sl good for analysing or at least aggregating the economic news of the week. He's a Californian businessman who seems to have done quite well for himself and is very popular on youtube among the finance geeks. Last week he reported from his new home in the country where he was waiting on the chicken-coop delivery man. I'd have them too if I had the space for them. He calls it the Depression but he's not too depressing sounding. Here he is talking about the ups and downs of the dollar this week and the auto bailout among other stuff. 16 mins.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9bcmapVmQpo
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PostSubject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond /   Sat Dec 20, 2008 1:55 pm

Some of the views from the video -

Dollar had its biggest one-day decline on Tuesday against the Euro
- 4% in a day -

The dollar's appeal as a safe haven evaporated with the reduction of interest rates to just over zero.

Some US stores Christmas sales 50% down from last year. Shoppers are broke. "69% changing their gift giving traditions".

600 billion bail out in China - they have the resources and can spend it.

He thinks "Obama is President Bush's Third Term without all the Democrats bitching".

THe video maker is a "free marketeer". He acknowledges that the economy would have collapsed without bailout and will collapse anyway - 10-15 years of hard times. Market intervention he things will just extend the downturn. The Depression ended with the war, not the New Deal (this I think is correct).

The curse of a high valued currency is a part of what has brought the US to where it is. This is now being passed to the Euro, not at a good time.
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PostSubject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond /   Fri Dec 26, 2008 1:03 pm

GMAC becomes a bank - this lad below sees this move - GM Gets Boost as GMAC Bank Approval Helps Preserve Loan Access - Bloomberg- as opening up a line between the TARP funds and GM.

Japan's exports down 8% (doesn't specify when)

January 8th - important information day when retailers in America declare their business to end of year.

U.S. retail sales believed to have fallen 4% this year.

from 25th December

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hm1WkC-1ilo
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PostSubject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond /   Sat Dec 27, 2008 2:05 am

Visionvictory - economic analysis or Y2K-like hysteria ? He quotes a volley of consumer-spending stats among other figures - an anecdotal story about electricity companies performing a record number of disconnections, presumably in California where he lives. From stats on the extent of shoplifting to the amount of money refinanced on homes in 2005/6 as opposed to today, he is fully sure this is a Depression and will get much worse with violence and civil unrest on the horizon.

Part I - The Matrix is breaking down, no dream lasts forever ..


Part II
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q2riKJB7C3Y
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PostSubject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond /   Wed Jan 07, 2009 6:05 pm

Feck is there a recovery brewing already or is the recent gain a 'bear trap'?? Some stockmarkets seem to have gained in the last few days - the Dow below doesn't look too healthy but had gone into the 9000s yesterday. Good positive video below where even the Arch Bear Peter Schiff has to admit there's plenty of value to be had in the stockmarket ...


http://www.bloomberg.com/index_eu.html

Market Movers Video from yesterday. They discuss the trillion dollar deficit that Obama has to take on and his spending approach to it. Schiff doesn't agree with this but it's the textbook Keynesian tactic to try to glide out of a recession. Another guy reckons it's the best time for Government to borrow - Treasury Bonds have never been so cheap to issue and he reckons there should be a 100 year bond ...


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PAvUAIuguV8
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PostSubject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond /   Wed Jan 07, 2009 9:39 pm

You may have noticed that Anorakphobia last year said he closed out his positions. He knows that with the printing of money markets will rise even as companies go bankrupt left right and center. The name for this is called A Crack Up Boom because it is a disastor disguised as a rising market.

Now is, if not past, the time to issue bonds to borrow cash and it won't last long
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PostSubject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond /   Wed Jan 07, 2009 10:26 pm

What happens if the bonds don't sell???

Interesting article here.
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PostSubject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond /   Wed Jan 07, 2009 10:59 pm

Johnny Keogh wrote:
What happens if the bonds don't sell???

Interesting article here.

Investors shunned one of the most liquid and safest assets in the world on Wednesday as a German bond auction failed in a warning for governments seeking to raise record amounts of debt to stimulate their slowing economies.

It is the first eurozone bond auction of the year and an ominous sign of potential trouble ahead for governments around the world, with an estimated $3,000bn expected to be issued in sovereign debt this year – three times more than in 2008.


Shunning the German bonds for what? Investors are buying American and UK ones instead, could be. If they buy them with a certain interest rate then does that interest rate going up or down apply to the bond over time? There's a dividend per year out of that bond too isn't there?
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PostSubject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond /   Wed Jan 07, 2009 11:14 pm

They shun them because they are losing money
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PostSubject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond /   Wed Jan 07, 2009 11:30 pm

youngdan wrote:
They shun them because they are losing money
What's the story - the American ones are being bought and the coupon interest is close to zero - or am I not understanding it all properly? Isn't the Bond issued with some interest value that MUST be paid by the state issuing the bond? Fair enough later on the bond can be traded at different interest rates on the bond market but the original interest doesn't change does it?

It looks bad though. As someone on p.ie said - if the Germans can't get 6 billion, what chance do we have of getting 12 ?

I nearly typed 'bong' in place of 'bond' more than once in this post ...
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PostSubject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond /   Thu Jan 08, 2009 12:53 am

Correct. The interest payment in dollars does not change. If later the price of the bond changes it means the interest
rate the new buyer gets is different.

The interest rate is near zero only for short duration bonds of months and these are just bought to park cash. The 10 year pays 2.5% and the buyers are saying it is not enough and won't buy.

This is all easily foreseen and lads are talking about it on P.ie as if it is a mystery. All this has been predicted months ago on the iseq thread.
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PostSubject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond /   Thu Jan 08, 2009 1:20 am

2.5.% is too little for ten years .. ? How much is the German one paying do you know ? Did I see somewhere it was around 3% ?

Now, everything is deflating - I think 2.5.% will look good in six to nine months.
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PostSubject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond /   Thu Jan 08, 2009 2:47 am

Anyone know what the outcome was for the Irish Government bond sale today.
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PostSubject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond /   Thu Jan 08, 2009 3:09 am

tonys wrote:
Anyone know what the outcome was for the Irish Government bond sale today.

Maybe there's some news here http://www.ntma.ie/home.php
If you can find it there or elsewhere please bring it back here but it doesn't look like it has been published yet.
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PostSubject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond /   Thu Jan 08, 2009 3:16 am

Auditor #9 wrote:
tonys wrote:
Anyone know what the outcome was for the Irish Government bond sale today.

Maybe there's some news here http://www.ntma.ie/home.php
If you can find it there or elsewhere please bring it back here but it doesn't look like it has been published yet.
Yes, already tried that, no luck. Thanks anyway.
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PostSubject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond /   Thu Jan 08, 2009 4:23 am

Was that sale an auction?
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PostSubject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond /   Thu Jan 08, 2009 4:28 am

youngdan wrote:
Was that sale an auction?



What else could it be ?
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PostSubject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond /   Thu Jan 08, 2009 4:31 am

It could have been a private deal
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PostSubject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond /   Thu Jan 08, 2009 4:41 am

youngdan wrote:
Was that sale an auction?
Yes, as far as I know. It was mentioned on Newstalk business news at about 6.00pm this evening as taking place about then.
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PostSubject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond /   Thu Jan 08, 2009 5:11 am

The last 6 billion sale months ago was an auction and all things considered went OK and gave no indications that Ireland would have difficulty borrowing. Might end up paying a bit more percentage wise but no big deal because these interest rates are at the moment rock bottom. Things are not improving so borrowing even if not immediately needed should have been done.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/feedarticle/8200380

This indicates that the Irish deal was going to be some sort of private deal. There was definately no public auction Wednesday.

I am not familiar with the mechanism of a private deal but if a deal was signed before the german news hit it would be a lucky break. Thursday there are 2 auctions which will tell the tale. France and Spain are to auction 6 and 6.5 billion and we await the demand that will decide the interest rate.

There is a developing story on Drudge about the Chinese not buying anymore US debt.

This could be the prick that will pop the US debt bubble
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PostSubject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond /   Thu Jan 08, 2009 5:18 am

youngdan wrote:
The last 6 billion sale months ago was an auction and all things considered went OK and gave no indications that Ireland would have difficulty borrowing. Might end up paying a bit more percentage wise but no big deal because these interest rates are at the moment rock bottom. Things are not improving so borrowing even if not immediately needed should have been done.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/feedarticle/8200380

This indicates that the Irish deal was going to be some sort of private deal. There was definately no public auction Wednesday.

I am not familiar with the mechanism of a private deal but if a deal was signed before the german news hit it would be a lucky break. Thursday there are 2 auctions which will tell the tale. France and Spain are to auction 6 and 6.5 billion and we await the demand that will decide the interest rate.

There is a developing story on Drudge about the Chinese not buying anymore US debt.

This could be the prick that will pop the US debt bubble
OK Thanks for that.

The only mention I could find was on Bloomberg, saying it was for today (Wednesday) and it was for 5 year bonds.
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PostSubject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond /   Thu Jan 08, 2009 6:15 am

With luck it was today and the deal was done. A private, or syndicated deal would have results announced later. If this is the case then someone earned their pay.

One bit of good news amidst a torrent of bad.
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PostSubject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond /   Thu Jan 08, 2009 3:12 pm

According to figures this young man below is reading out, American budget deficit is now 1.1 TRILLION dollars before all the bailouts are factored in.

Employment figures say the US lost 693,000 jobs in the private sector in December

Retail figures due out today, January 8th and official unemployment figures out tomorrow, friday 9th.

Possibly 1 million jobs will be lost in one month in the very near future.

Alcoa, Time Warner, Intel all have bad news of jobs going, profits and sales down.

Comments on EU and Gazprom - EU produces 40% of own gas, 25% comes from Russia he says.

Info on teen pregnancies (?) in Louisiana (?)

and more .. The PORN industry needs some fiscal relief too apparently - he blames it on the free porn sites now available Laughing

We'll see him again later for the retail figures..


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vyqzbSb4TKo
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PostSubject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond /   Thu Jan 08, 2009 3:27 pm

Yes, I noticed on CNN last night that the porn industry in the US is asking for a federal bail out.
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PostSubject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond /   Thu Jan 08, 2009 4:17 pm

They are trying to screw us
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