The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond /

Guest

That one is easy Audi. If one group holds a large percentage of the available gold then they could set the price at anything they liked. Clearly over 100000 dollars an ounce. But we don't know who bought all the gold.

Guest

youngdan wrote:: If the number of sea shells were finite then shells would be fine. Anything would be fine as long asmoney could not be printed by a clique. Why should a clique have the power to print a trillion dollars and screw the rest of us

I totally agree with that, but I think that the money supply should be able to grow in line with growth in the economy. Gold can't do that and that is where I have problems with its use. It is also a commodity and is subject to speculation and that could damage economies that are otherwise performing normally.

If an economy was growing at say 10% and gold supply at 2% then year on year the value of gold against assets is increasing by 8%. Why should anyone sitting on a pile of gold increase their purchasing power by doing nothing whatsoever? In reverse if the economy is in decline say -3% and gold supply increases at 2% then the purchasing power of gold decreases. The quantity of gold is not a reflection of the total assets.

I think the problem is firstly defining what is growth in an economy. I think we need to look at that in a more stock taking manner rather than just measuring activity, that is the equivalent of measuring sales but forgetting the purchase side. If we solve that then we need to consider how to tie money supply to the changing amounts of assets in the economy. Do that and problem solved. As for the clique who merely print the sooner that ends the better.

It would be a very different world with much less credit and leveraging. I don't think there is an easy, simple solution.

Guest

Why would you want the money supply to grow or fall regardless of what shape the economy is in. Money is just a medium of exchange.

If the volume of dollars were set by an act of God then we would not need the gold standard. The price of say and automobile should be lower than it was years ago to reflect advances in productivity

Guest

What if the quantity of goods and services rises and falls youngdan

Guest

youngdan wrote:: Why would you want the money supply to grow or fall regardless of what shape the economy is in.

No that is the opposite to what I said, money supply needs to mirror the worth of the economy or money will rise and fall in value against assets. There is no possibility of doing this with gold.

EDIT

SORRY see it is Audi you are addressing.

Guest

I was addressing you, what harm would it be if the money increased in value or vice versa against an asset obeying the law of supply and demand

Guest

Simple unearned gain and unjustified loss.

EDIT

Basically I don't like the idea of a currency backed by a commodity that is open to speculation. Image in the last year an oil based currency. It would result in chaos. Mind you we have chaos as it is.

Guest

How about new markets and products youngdan - how would a static currency trade in those unless it was to stop trade in another area? For example the mobile phone industry. You'd think that the gold used for landlines would gradually be transferred to the mobile market and the landline market gold would stop. But lots of people have both set ups - landline and mobile.

How would money be expanded for research into new industries ? Private investment I suppose but then when the product appears how is the money expanded so people can buy it ?

Guest

tonys wrote:

youngdan wrote:: Did you read that story on the indo about the fools that are taking a serious bath from property they bought in Florida. They must never have heard of the Florida Land bubble of the mid twenties. Anyone who bought here are screwed with property tax killing them. They may be saved if the dollar crashs before the euro.

I imagine very few people own their homes in Ireland, they don't own them till they are paid for. God help them.

I have declared over yonder that all debt in Ireland should be defaulted on and a new currency introduced. Doubtless you will think this crazy like that fool Hiding a Poster's Behind. He must be a FG hack, they are the dimmest.

Relatively speaking, very few people here invested in American property, Holiday property was mostly Europe and largely Spain, Portugal & France with commercial property in the UK & Germany.

Not so, the large majority owe nothing or very little on their homes, either way it doesn’t matter, the point is when putting a spotlight on the level of personal debt in Ireland it should be a basic requirement to mention the offsetting assets, this never happens Dan, the doomongers are off the leash and normal rules don’t apply.

I don’t believe default is the way to go and talk of a new currency is for the moment “nuts”

If you think I’m a fool Dan, just come out and say it, I won’t die of shock and in return I might have something to say about it myself.

Why would I think anything of the sort. I think that you are a FF man and you are doing a very good job playing a hand of cards that is getting weaker by the day.

Now that everyone is slamming FF it is time I stopped at least here. It is foolish in the extreme thinking that FG would have constrained the tiger when the property bubble taxes were streaming in. Gilmore will be like Obama just promise roses with absolutely no plan whatsoever except trivialites.

I assumed that you would think my plan foolish because in normal trimes it would be foolish.Also most politicians are owned by the money men and they don't want to be shafted.yet the attractiveness of a deliberate shafting or the inevitability of an unavoidable shafting(in which case the money men will demand a bailout for them)

There is no doubt backbench FF people beginning to secretly ponder a masterstroke, A rump independent FF group vowing to put the people ahead of the banksters. A huge gamble but a huge reward as well. What do you think, there appears little to lose

Guest

If gold was tied to a fixed dollar amount there would be no speulation as they would be the same. It would be like expecting speculators to bet that shillings would change against pounds.

Audi. Money does not need to expand. Before 1933 things worked nice and dandy. Everyone knew what a dollar was and knew that it was not going to be 90 cents in 5 years

Guest

youngdan wrote:

tonys wrote:

youngdan wrote:: Did you read that story on the indo about the fools that are taking a serious bath from property they bought in Florida. They must never have heard of the Florida Land bubble of the mid twenties. Anyone who bought here are screwed with property tax killing them. They may be saved if the dollar crashs before the euro.

I imagine very few people own their homes in Ireland, they don't own them till they are paid for. God help them.

I have declared over yonder that all debt in Ireland should be defaulted on and a new currency introduced. Doubtless you will think this crazy like that fool Hiding a Poster's Behind. He must be a FG hack, they are the dimmest.

Relatively speaking, very few people here invested in American property, Holiday property was mostly Europe and largely Spain, Portugal & France with commercial property in the UK & Germany.

Not so, the large majority owe nothing or very little on their homes, either way it doesn’t matter, the point is when putting a spotlight on the level of personal debt in Ireland it should be a basic requirement to mention the offsetting assets, this never happens Dan, the doomongers are off the leash and normal rules don’t apply.

I don’t believe default is the way to go and talk of a new currency is for the moment “nuts”

If you think I’m a fool Dan, just come out and say it, I won’t die of shock and in return I might have something to say about it myself.

Why would I think anything of the sort. I think that you are a FF man and you are doing a very good job playing a hand of cards that is getting weaker by the day.

Now that everyone is slamming FF it is time I stopped at least here. It is foolish in the extreme thinking that FG would have constrained the tiger when the property bubble taxes were streaming in. Gilmore will be like Obama just promise roses with absolutely no plan whatsoever except trivialites.

I assumed that you would think my plan foolish because in normal trimes it would be foolish.Also most politicians are owned by the money men and they don't want to be shafted.yet the attractiveness of a deliberate shafting or the inevitability of an unavoidable shafting(in which case the money men will demand a bailout for them)

There is no doubt backbench FF people beginning to secretly ponder a masterstroke, A rump independent FF group vowing to put the people ahead of the banksters. A huge gamble but a huge reward as well. What do you think, there appears little to lose

I think those who are still playing political games, including the opposition parties, are more than a little behind the game. At this stage the cabinet at least clearly understand what’s at stake and are desperately trying to make the right decisions at the right time, including the hard & difficult decisions which they know will lead to them being slaughtered at the polls, but that they are determined to do anyway, they have no choice, they know that.

Whether they will be successful in domestic terms is down to a whether everyone is prepared to do their bit or are determined to bang dustbin lids until they find someone who says they will do it for them, they’ll be lying of course, but by the time they find that out it’ll be too late to matter anyway.

In international terms it’s out of our hands, whatever will be, will be, all we can and should do is prepare for the worst and hope it doesn’t happen.

Guest

youngdan wrote:: If gold was tied to a fixed dollar amount there would be no speulation as they would be the same. It would be like expecting speculators to bet that shillings would change against pounds.

Audi. Money does not need to expand. Before 1933 things worked nice and dandy. Everyone knew what a dollar was and knew that it was not going to be 90 cents in 5 years

Yes I've seen those graphs of the money supply only hockey-sticking since 1971 - as far as I know, the First Great Depression and other speculative bubbles happened when there was a gold-backed currency ...

But I kinda see what you're saying although Squire has already brought it up - you won't create new industries until new gold or silver appear which is kinda in line with nature and slow growth which is not a bad thing overall maybe. But what if your economy is going to grow at 10% or rather your neighbours is cause they have fiat and you don't. It might be better for you in the long run to stick with gold but you'd probably feel like getting in the race.

So it seems using gold doesn't easily lend itself to economic growth in quantity and quality. But there was loads of growth in the 20th Century all the same when there was a gold standard in it .... scratch

Guest

tonys wrote:

youngdan wrote:

tonys wrote:

youngdan wrote:: Did you read that story on the indo about the fools that are taking a serious bath from property they bought in Florida. They must never have heard of the Florida Land bubble of the mid twenties. Anyone who bought here are screwed with property tax killing them. They may be saved if the dollar crashs before the euro.

I imagine very few people own their homes in Ireland, they don't own them till they are paid for. God help them.

I have declared over yonder that all debt in Ireland should be defaulted on and a new currency introduced. Doubtless you will think this crazy like that fool Hiding a Poster's Behind. He must be a FG hack, they are the dimmest.

Relatively speaking, very few people here invested in American property, Holiday property was mostly Europe and largely Spain, Portugal & France with commercial property in the UK & Germany.

Not so, the large majority owe nothing or very little on their homes, either way it doesn’t matter, the point is when putting a spotlight on the level of personal debt in Ireland it should be a basic requirement to mention the offsetting assets, this never happens Dan, the doomongers are off the leash and normal rules don’t apply.

I don’t believe default is the way to go and talk of a new currency is for the moment “nuts”

If you think I’m a fool Dan, just come out and say it, I won’t die of shock and in return I might have something to say about it myself.

Why would I think anything of the sort. I think that you are a FF man and you are doing a very good job playing a hand of cards that is getting weaker by the day.

Now that everyone is slamming FF it is time I stopped at least here. It is foolish in the extreme thinking that FG would have constrained the tiger when the property bubble taxes were streaming in. Gilmore will be like Obama just promise roses with absolutely no plan whatsoever except trivialites.

I assumed that you would think my plan foolish because in normal trimes it would be foolish.Also most politicians are owned by the money men and they don't want to be shafted.yet the attractiveness of a deliberate shafting or the inevitability of an unavoidable shafting(in which case the money men will demand a bailout for them)

There is no doubt backbench FF people beginning to secretly ponder a masterstroke, A rump independent FF group vowing to put the people ahead of the banksters. A huge gamble but a huge reward as well. What do you think, there appears little to lose

I think those who are still playing political games, including the opposition parties, are more than a little behind the game. At this stage the cabinet at least clearly understand what’s at stake and are desperately trying to make the right decisions at the right time, including the hard & difficult decisions which they know will lead to them being slaughtered at the polls, but that they are determined to do anyway, they have no choice, they know that.

Whether they will be successful in domestic terms is down to a whether everyone is prepared to do their bit or are determined to bang dustbin lids until they find someone who says they will do it for them, they’ll be lying of course, but by the time they find that out it’ll be too late to matter anyway.

In international terms it’s out of our hands, whatever will be, will be, all we can and should do is prepare for the worst and hope it doesn’t happen.

It is a given that there will be plenty of dustbin can beating. Nobody wants to sacrifice.

There are a few questions that should be asked leaving aside the possibility of the euro itself collapsing which would be a Godsend to anyone in debt. That would be nearly everyone it seems with the State owing 90 billion or 50 billion as I have seen quoted elsewhere.

The most important question is can default be avoided. I don't think so and the indo article is hinting that I could be right. The story about the 350 million loss in cigerette tax revenue is just more confirmation to me that the Irish people are just taxed out. I have said that it does not matter what new taxes they think up the tax take is still going to be lower. They should actually lower the tax on fags by 3 euros and the tax take would go up twice. Once when they buy the smokes this side of the border and twice when they spend the saved 3 euro on something else. FF actually have an oppurtuinity of sorts. They could come up with some radical ideas and rightly point out that the opposition have no ideas except promises.

If the electorate fall for promises from Labour then let them suffer the consequences.

They should set up a free enterprise zone. Let companies set up shop with zero corporate tax and zero payroll tax if they give unemployed workers a job. Unless there is innovative thinking the deflation death spiral will continue. It is too late though I believe kK

Letting in the IMF or some other debt masters is treason in the extreme. Even the South American countries are getting rid of these leechs. Instead of bailing out the banks they should be closed up and every ones mortage should be forgiven. If theyare broke well they might as well be fully broke. Those with money on deposit would be well glad to give it up to pay off their mortage. Those will actual positive balances could be paid in the new currency. Foreign depositors could be told that they should have kept their money in their own countries and not be greedy so screw. The bond holders could be told nothing because they could read in the Financial Times.

A radical solution but is it not a radical problem

Guest

If anyone wants to destroy the economy of the country go to the IMF. They generally;
1 believe that a strong currency is necessary even though a revaluation down is needed to readjust after run away inflation
2 will arrange more loans.
3 will insist on a zero deficit policy so the loans are repaid.
4 privatise everything, sell of assets.

Their cure usually results in a shrinking economy, higher unemployment and in many countries it just does not work and often causes severe unrest.

In Argentina they advised on pegging the peso to the dollar. As the dollar went up so did the peso making Argentina important exports uncompetitive and imports cheap. Better than that everyone knew that the peso was over valued so it then required higher and higher interest rates to support it. The IMF's arranged massive amounts of loans (I think $40 billion) to support the Argentine peso. Complete and utter waste of money. Argentina would have been better to devalue and in Ireland it would have been better to let the banks hit hard earth. You don't try to break the fall of a person falling from the 10th floor by standing beneath them.

Enterprise zones are a good idea, may as well make it country wide. Don't tax employment, and wealth creation, tax consumption.

There should be nothing dishonourable about going bankrupt, it happens to individuals often enough so why not a country? It has happened before, China is a pertinent example. The countries seem to recover better than the ones the IMF help.

Guest

It is time for left wingers to start listening to right wingers and vice versa.

First priority is to recognise truth. People in Europe are not our "FRIENDS" they are out to eat their part of the pie.

The IMF are not coming to "SAVE" us. They are what would be known as Repo Men. They work for the people who set them up.

Guest

Squire wrote:: ... Enterprise zones are a good idea, may as well make it country wide. Don't tax employment, and wealth creation, tax consumption. ...

So cut corporation tax and raise VAT? Would not the EU stop us from doing either?

Guest

coc wrote:

Squire wrote:: ... Enterprise zones are a good idea, may as well make it country wide. Don't tax employment, and wealth creation, tax consumption. ...

So cut corporation tax and raise VAT? Would not the EU stop us from doing either?

Yes flat line it for local businesses. If you want jobs do it. The priority should be to create jobs and build up business. You can raise VAT, stamp duty etc etc but do not tax job creation. You also need a way of keeping business profits into this jurisdiction. Some sort of off set deferred tax would do the trick. If you put your money into business you get tax relief, if you want a Scandinavian style heated out door tub (never seen too many in Scandinavia) then you weep at the price, or a BMW, or garden gnomes, wide screen plasma TVs etc. THe wealth in the country needs to go into creating a vibrant business sector that creates wealth. A decade of severe austerity would do wonders.

While we are at it remember that taxes are for paying for the government and services. Don't want to pay then the other side of the equation is to cut expenditure. You can't have services unless there is a viable wealth creating sector.

Guest

Squire, it is different here: VAT is already very high - 21.5 % on top of the price of the job for my clients. It is a tax on work, rather than consumption.

A swathe of people here on very high incomes have been paying no income tax, or very little. They could well afford to pay more. All those excess earnings fuelled property speculation.

Graduated income tax in the present circumstances is the only fair tax, as it is paid according to ability to pay. All these government levies that hit the lower paid are very unfair, and this is causing unrest.

Guest

I'm not disagreeing with you in principle Squire, but am concerned at the regressive nature of consumption taxes like VAT. If life's essentials were excluded it might be fair. Surely all this is moot though - the EU won't allow us rework our VAT rates and I'm fairly sure we'd be invaded if we dropped corporation tax.

Guest

cactus flower wrote:: Squire, it is different here: VAT is already very high - 21.5 % on top of the price of the job for my clients. It is a tax on work, rather than consumption.

A swathe of people here on very high incomes have been paying no income tax, or very little. They could well afford to pay more. All those excess earnings fuelled property speculation.

Graduated income tax in the present circumstances is the only fair tax, as it is paid according to ability to pay. All these government levies that hit the lower paid are very unfair, and this is causing unrest.

I was thinking VAT on goods sold rather than the whole nonsense that is VAT. It is a hateful tax. It may be easy for the revenue to collect but causes everyone else endless paper work. Person at quarry charges vat to his customer who makes concrete. Person making concrete reclaims the VAT paid and charges VAT to builder, builder then reclaims VAT paid and charges VAT on to Developer .......... It may vary from one jurisdiction to another as some sectors are exempt, but the person paying the VAT is the one at the end of the chain. The rest is pointless paperwork. There has to be a better way of collecting money.

I am not adverse to people paying income tax, it is either that or pay for Education and Health directly and that is plainly unfair. As long as it is made attractive to invest rather than consume, I have no problem with it, but once you start taxing people ridiculous percentages they find residence elsewhere. Tax generally would need considerable thought on how to change the emphasis and also how to simplify.

COC

It is the sort of subject that would need serious consideration and not my glib oh cut, cut ,cut. Really, for me it is about two objectives, the first is about creating a fairly austere but fair society that enables people and gives fair access to resources to all. The second is about creating an efficient society. What is the most efficient way to provide health care, drinking water etc as well as building a strong and dynamic commercial base. Another question that needs to be asked is to do with local tax raising powers for local services and the the devolution of power and responsibility. People don't trust Brussels, I wonder why they think Dublin is any better?

Guest

Squire wrote:: COC

It is the sort of subject that would need serious consideration and not my glib oh cut, cut ,cut. Really, for me it is about two objectives, the first is about creating a fairly austere but fair society that enables people and gives fair access to resources to all. The second is about creating an efficient society. What is the most efficient way to provide health care, drinking water etc as well as building a strong and dynamic commercial base. Another question that needs to be asked is to do with local tax raising powers for local services and the the devolution of power and responsibility. People don't trust Brussels, I wonder why they think Dublin is any better?

So we're discussing the best way to tax stuff - isn't a Cap and Share the most equitable? I don't know if some regime of tax can emulate a direct implementation of it but it seems to me to be some way equitable. Alfred Bartlett the Exponential Growth Mathematician estimated that there are two litres per day of oil per person on the planet and I think it's desperately unfair that Americans need twice as much and get it for half the price as other societies. That's an international example but there are similar examples of it here in terms of other consumables. If you were King of the World wouldn't you put a cap on what people can use per day ? Similarly with any other essentials or with stuff like houses; you 've said it before Squire - people have started to treat houses not as homes but as assets to be traded, auctioned, capitalised on.

Maybe there is something inherently wrong in a society which wholesale treats homes as commodities on such a scale ...?

But is there any system that can tax excess satisfactorily ? Could it be an energy or carbon tax and could those things be implemented locally or will a decent tax system only work if it's global?

Guest

"Man of Truth" gives a breathless 6 minute rundown of recent economic events/news/history and he includes the news upto today when we find out that weak financial systems in Eastern Europe are leaning on weakening financial systems in Western Europe.

He reckons there will be a world central bank soon ... Ambrose Evans Pritchard believes the IMF will start printing soon - telegraph - and he isn't at all sure what gold and other precious metals are doing now - it depends on whether Barack and Tim unleash another 700bn stimulus on everyone ...

Dow down 250 to 7500 odd and the Big Three Automakers getting ready to ask for more moolah...

His big thing at the end is to short the 30-year Treasury Bond, make a fortune and buy chicken feed.

He says Donald Trump would be better off building sustainable communities and populating them with intelligent people.. Sounds like something out of Moonraker Neutral