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 The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond /

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PostSubject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond /   Thu Jan 08, 2009 4:51 pm

youngdan wrote:
They are trying to screw us
If you start me up I'll never stop on this one.

It is interesting what the lad said though - everyone getting their bit of free net porn is starting to kill the industry off perhaps. Or is it the amateurs doing it or what that is potentially killing it off ? Might not be a very palatable subject but worth talking about as a model for other industries. Does it mean less money for Seymour Butts or less money for the girls and boys he films ? Does it mean less American porn in the future and more imported stuff? (oh damn we won't be able to understand what the foreigners are saying now)

Thus the net can have a powerful effect on such industries and I wouldn't be at all surprised if it'll get big time regulated sometime soon. First the short sellers and now the porn downloaders will be blamed for causing an economic depression. Next it'll be the broadsheet newspapers and TV programmes going the same way. We've already had it with the music industry devastation.

Brave New World of commercial intercourse a head of us ?
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PostSubject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond /   Thu Jan 08, 2009 5:00 pm

All I can say is at one time I was known as Youngdong
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PostSubject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond /   Thu Jan 08, 2009 5:10 pm

youngdan wrote:
All I can say is at one time I was known as Youngdong

Very Happy
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PostSubject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond /   Thu Jan 08, 2009 5:18 pm

Do you know Lou Dobbs youngdong? Here he is saying on a 2 minute CNN report that America could go bankrupt. Do not adjust your sets.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JfGGMOIWaMk
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PostSubject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond /   Thu Jan 08, 2009 5:24 pm

7% of GDP ?
What is the Irish equivalent?
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PostSubject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond /   Thu Jan 08, 2009 5:27 pm

cactus flower wrote:
7% of GDP ?
What is the Irish equivalent?
About 12 billion out of GDP of 160 billion ... that's ... close to 7% too I suppose
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PostSubject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond /   Thu Jan 08, 2009 5:40 pm

Not including any call from the Banks Guarantee...
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PostSubject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond /   Thu Jan 08, 2009 5:46 pm

According to the CIA Factbook, which appears to use a differing measure and is available on Wiki has Zimbabwe as the most indebted State on earth with total public debt at 218.20% of GDP. On their measure Italy is the highest placed European State at 104% of GDP. The USA comes in at 60.80% of GDP with Ireland at 24.90% of GDP, between the Czech Republic and Saudi Arabia.

There are however alot of other factors at work such as the longterm viability of economies. Ireland may only be down at 24.90% but that means nothing if lenders believe the economy is in terminal decline. In such a situation they are more likely to lend to an economy with a much higher ratio if they believe it is on the way up. Ireland will also be significantly higher on the list with the money we are currently or about to borrow. I think, though I couldn't be sure, I heard that we are heading up towards 40% which is about where the UK was prior to the start of this crisis.
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PostSubject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond /   Thu Jan 08, 2009 7:41 pm

Dobbs is right we are bust.

The biggest problem is Obama. As can be seen from the clip he is as dumb as a brick. Reading his little cue cards just does not cut it I am afraid
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PostSubject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond /   Fri Jan 09, 2009 12:03 am

http://www.rte.ie/business/2009/0108/ntma.html

Getting any information on that bond sale is harder than getting the 3rd secret of Fatima.

Everything on the RTE site should be taken with a grain of salt because usually they don't fully understand how markets work. Reading between the lines here and elsewhere it points to a situation where some quick decisions were made and if this was indeed what happened then these lads deserve great praise and I am not one to praise.

The origonal plan was to sell 3 billion of 10 year bonds which would be the duration most ideal for the government. It was realised that this would not have been sucessfull and it was decided to try for 5 years instead. Buyers would have preferred 5 years and maybe even some money went to the Irish 5 year instead of the German 10 year.

After this good decision it was seen that demand was decent so someone made the decision to grab 6 billion instead of 3 while the going was good. That extra 3 will give a bit more to play around with. The yield that I saw elsewhere was 4.15%. That is high but I feel that it won't be long until it will look like a bargain.

All in all things could not have gone better. They were able to borrow 6 billion which was the amount the
Germans were borrowing
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PostSubject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond /   Fri Jan 09, 2009 12:54 am

6 billion - that's pretty good isn't it. Only another 14 more to go... Why are we suddenly in need of raising twenty flaming billion ??? Will we be able to issue bonds again next year ??

4% as yield sounds high enough but you're saying it will have to go a lot higher before more bonds can be sold in future? Presumably German bonds were yielding less? The 4.15% will increase with more bonds going on sale, is that right?
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PostSubject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond /   Fri Jan 09, 2009 1:20 am

The 4.15 stays the same but next time I figure they will have to pay a higher rate. As this bond is resold between traders an indication of what they will pay next time will be seen in whether this bond rises or fall in price.

They need to borrow 20 billion because they intend to spend 20 billion more than they have
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PostSubject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond /   Sat Jan 10, 2009 2:44 am

Some good news for a change



News below found on the popular Don Harrold vlog
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GigFYZZJT0w

Quote :
WASHINGTON – Consumers cut back on their borrowing by a record amount in dollar terms in November, another sign of trouble for the rapidly weakening economy.

The Federal Reserve reported Thursday that borrowing on credit cards, and for such things as auto loans, dropped at an annual rate of $7.94 billion in November, the biggest decline in 65 years of record keeping. That also was much larger than the $500 million decline economists expected, and left total consumer credit outstanding at $2.57 trillion.

The drop represented a decline of 3.7 percent from October, which was the biggest fall in percentage terms since a 4.3 percent plunge in January 1998.

Analysts are worried the economy's troubles could trigger a major retrenchment by consumers that will make the current recession, already the longest in a quarter-century, even worse. Consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of total economic output.

The 3.7 percent drop in total borrowing in November followed a 1.3 percent decline in October.

The weakness in November was led by a 3.9 percent plunge in the category that includes auto loans. Borrowing in the category that includes credit cards was down by 3.4 percent.

Consumer borrowing is unlikely to rebound anytime soon. The major automakers reported earlier this week that auto sales plunged by 36 percent in December as huge rebates and zero-percent loans couldn't persuade Americans to buy a new car.

Every major automaker reported drops of more than 30 percent in December. Chrysler LLC said its sales were down a whopping 53 percent, while General Motors Corp., the other auto company that received emergency government loans last month, saw sales fall by 31 percent.

The Fed's report on consumer credit does not cover mortgage loans or other borrowing secured by real estate such as home equity loans.
Yahoo - AP

I wonder how many cars are bought and sold each month in the states ???
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PostSubject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond /   Sat Jan 10, 2009 12:30 pm

http://www.independent.ie/business/stocks-markets/early-market-visit-gives-government-83646bn-boost-1596413.html

Finally the Indo has the story. As I figured it was not an auction but a private placement. As I assumed they grabbed an extra 3 billion but offering a higher interest rate.

They paid 0.31% more than what similiar Irish bonds are paying. A good deal.

Had this been an auction they would have stayed at 3 billion. If demand was slack they might have lets say got 1.8 billion sold at a reasonable rate but to sell the rest they would befacing higher rates so the final average rate could be higher than what they moved the 6 billion for.


What happened to the Germans was they had an interest rate in their minds that they did not want to pay higher than, this being the rate their old bonds were trading at in the secondary market. . The auction went ahead and 5.2 billion was sold at that price or better. They had to buy the .8 billion remaining themselves or otherwise the interest rate would be higher, that is the price lower, than they wanted.

You could say they had a minimum reserve price and 0.8 billion did not get a bid that reached that price,

So the Irish ended up paying and extra 18 million a year interest but they brought home 6 billion
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PostSubject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond /   Sat Jan 10, 2009 1:01 pm

Fair play for spotting that youngdan - I think EVM was asking about bonds before and I keep doing that so it's nice to have a real situation happening at home and in such circumstances too. Do we issue bonds all the time do you know or are we just getting into this now ? The interest is slightly higher than the average - as I'm understanding from that article - so that means we'll have to pay more than others who auctioned theirs? You said that interest rate would look like a bargain in a while - does that mean you think bonds will be harder to sell later?

Presumably the interest coupon payable to the 140 lads who bought it will turn up as a debit somewhere in our national balance sheets - I wonder where I could find this figure. Hardly in the Estimates.

Some quotes from the indo link you included in your last post which I don't really understand about debt in the 80s and liquidity

Quote :
"That adds to the €20bn which we have raised in short-term debt. But we found in the 1980s that the risk is not the size of the debt but lack of liquidity from not having enough bonds which can be traded on the market," Dr Somers said.

"The short-term debt lacks liquidity because it has to be replaced regularly. So we never let ourselves get into that situation where we are we don't have enough liquidity," he said.
I'll figure that out yet...

Quote :
"We would plan to auction €750m to €1bn each month in two or three different bonds. That is normally cheaper than direct placings but there may be another one of those further down the road. It strengthens our hand to have done this one," Dr Somers said.

Yesterday, the NTMA was being praised for getting in "before the rush", with both governments and government-guaranteed banks looking for huge quantities of loans this year. The US Treasury alone is expected to borrow over $1 trillion.

European governments will issue about €20bn of bonds every week during the first quarter of 2009, up from €10bn to €15bn a week during the past two years, according to Societe Generale.
There was some suggestion on the Pin that the ECB would print and buy these bonds in return for some positive GDP figures for example - is that possible? The Bundesbank bought the German bonds but it used banked money to do so I presume. Why didn't it just use that banked money in first place.
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PostSubject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond /   Sat Jan 10, 2009 11:00 pm

This is all new to most people except fools like me who have had an interest in the subject all their lives. You are getting a decent understanding now of what is involved so on to the questions.

Do we issue bonds all the time?. Bonds are just a fancy name for a loan so the government issues them when they need a loan of a few bob to pay the bills because it's income is not enough. An Outstandind Bond is the fancy name for a loan which has yet to be repaid. The Date Of Maturity is the fancy name for the unhappy date when the loan must be repaid. The Duration/Maturity is the lenght of time until the day of repayment. Selling bonds just means borrowing cash

All the money owed by the government is gotten by adding up all the unpaid IOUs tosee what you owe. The fancy way of saying this is.. The National Debt is the total of outstanding sovereign bonds issued by the Irish Government.

Last year they sold 6 billion and earlier in the year I think 3 billion but because they need/would like more cash they will try to sell much more this year. They said about 750 million each month. Back in the days when the money was rolling in to the government then did not need to borrow and when old loans came due for repayment they could just pay them off and the national debt dropped.

The interest is slightly higher than the average? This means that before the sale they looked at what traders were buying and selling the last set of similiar Irish bonds that were initially sold by the government some time ago to see the price being paid in the marketplace. The price at the time was equivalent to an interest rate of about 3.7%. This was the exact value of the bonds on the day where they were selling the new bonds. The sellers acting for the government looked at the situation and figured that there was not enough buyers around to buy all the 3 billion they wanted to sell at that price. This meant that they had to drop the price to attract buyers. Because the buyers could buy identical bonds cheaper it meant that the real interest rate they would be getting was higher.

This is the crucial thing to grasp.

So they dropped the price by an amount that raised the interest rate by 0.3% and enough buyers jumped at it to buy not only 3 billion but 6 billion which the sellers gladly sold them
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PostSubject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond /   Sat Jan 10, 2009 11:08 pm

Very clear, thanks for that youngdan.
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PostSubject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond /   Sat Jan 10, 2009 11:18 pm

To be honest, I think we'll be allright this year. It is next year I am worried about....humdinger of a budget this autumn, if not before....
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PostSubject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond /   Sat Jan 10, 2009 11:38 pm

more than others who auctioned their?

The average does not refer to the bonds of the other countries. Irish interest rates on the bonds will be different. Because they all use the euro the difference depends solely on the risk of not getting repaid. The risk of Ireland not paying is greater than the risk of Germany not paying so the Irish will pay a higher interest rate.

The bonds will be most likely harder to sell later. The price will fall which means the rate will rise

The interest will be a debit and it's size is known and won't change

What Somers is saying is just horseshythe. Unfortunate nobody is rude enough to to say "So you think it would be easier to borrow if we borrowed more"

Lads like this should be put ploughing with a horse.

What he is saying is that back in the 80s ireland had to frequently go cap in hand and borrow money short term to keep the show on the road. Borrowing short term is bad because it indicates that nobody is willing to lend to you long term because they reckon that you are going broke. By lack of liquidity he refers to the fact that there were not to many buyers of this short term debt. He says if there were more bonds there would be more buyers. This is stupid beyond belief. I have refered to borrowing every month, this is a bad method and hopfully it is only in Sumers head. If Linehan is listening to the likes of Sumers then ye can kiss yeer ass goodbye



The Germans only used 0.8 billion to buy the stuff the investors did not buy. So at the end of the day they ended up with 5.2 billion new cash. I assume the 0.8 billion was real cash the bundesbank had on hand. Thewre would be no point in the bundesbank buying the 6 billion bond as it would be lending to itself. I do not know what the bundesbank is allowed to do but lets look at what the English situation is. They realise that investors will not buy their bonds at a price the want. To intice them to buy they would have to lower the price which would increase the rate. What they have decided is that the bank of england will just print money and buy them at a high price. This is outright inflating and is called Quantative Easing.

The ECB presumable could print money as well and buy the Irish bonds but I have not studied the ECB. The Irish could still have to pay the ECB back

If the Irish had not given up their own central bank they could buy their own bonds in a crunch but more importantly they could reliquidify the banks. This would not be an ideal solution but it would be better than what is likely to happen.
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PostSubject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond /   Sun Jan 11, 2009 1:19 am

youngdan wrote:
more than others who auctioned their?

The average does not refer to the bonds of the other countries. Irish interest rates on the bonds will be different. Because they all use the euro the difference depends solely on the risk of not getting repaid. The risk of Ireland not paying is greater than the risk of Germany not paying so the Irish will pay a higher interest rate.

The bonds will be most likely harder to sell later. The price will fall which means the rate will rise

The interest will be a debit and it's size is known and won't change

What Somers is saying is just horseshythe. Unfortunate nobody is rude enough to to say "So you think it would be easier to borrow if we borrowed more"

Lads like this should be put ploughing with a horse.

What he is saying is that back in the 80s ireland had to frequently go cap in hand and borrow money short term to keep the show on the road. Borrowing short term is bad because it indicates that nobody is willing to lend to you long term because they reckon that you are going broke. By lack of liquidity he refers to the fact that there were not to many buyers of this short term debt. He says if there were more bonds there would be more buyers. This is stupid beyond belief. I have refered to borrowing every month, this is a bad method and hopfully it is only in Sumers head. If Linehan is listening to the likes of Sumers then ye can kiss yeer ass goodbye



The Germans only used 0.8 billion to buy the stuff the investors did not buy. So at the end of the day they ended up with 5.2 billion new cash. I assume the 0.8 billion was real cash the bundesbank had on hand. Thewre would be no point in the bundesbank buying the 6 billion bond as it would be lending to itself. I do not know what the bundesbank is allowed to do but lets look at what the English situation is. They realise that investors will not buy their bonds at a price the want. To intice them to buy they would have to lower the price which would increase the rate. What they have decided is that the bank of england will just print money and buy them at a high price. This is outright inflating and is called Quantative Easing.

The ECB presumable could print money as well and buy the Irish bonds but I have not studied the ECB. The Irish could still have to pay the ECB back

If the Irish had not given up their own central bank they could buy their own bonds in a crunch but more importantly they could reliquidify the banks. This would not be an ideal solution but it would be better than what is likely to happen.

..........we would have a currency which would be reaching par with the Moldovan luncheon voucher. We would have been eaten alive at this stage.
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PostSubject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond /   Sun Jan 11, 2009 2:00 am

youngdan wrote:
more than others who auctioned their?

The average does not refer to the bonds of the other countries. Irish interest rates on the bonds will be different. Because they all use the euro the difference depends solely on the risk of not getting repaid. The risk of Ireland not paying is greater than the risk of Germany not paying so the Irish will pay a higher interest rate.

The bonds will be most likely harder to sell later. The price will fall which means the rate will rise

The interest will be a debit and it's size is known and won't change

What Somers is saying is just horseshythe. Unfortunate nobody is rude enough to to say "So you think it would be easier to borrow if we borrowed more"

Lads like this should be put ploughing with a horse.

What he is saying is that back in the 80s ireland had to frequently go cap in hand and borrow money short term to keep the show on the road. Borrowing short term is bad because it indicates that nobody is willing to lend to you long term because they reckon that you are going broke. By lack of liquidity he refers to the fact that there were not to many buyers of this short term debt. He says if there were more bonds there would be more buyers. This is stupid beyond belief. I have refered to borrowing every month, this is a bad method and hopfully it is only in Sumers head. If Linehan is listening to the likes of Sumers then ye can kiss yeer ass goodbye



The Germans only used 0.8 billion to buy the stuff the investors did not buy. So at the end of the day they ended up with 5.2 billion new cash. I assume the 0.8 billion was real cash the bundesbank had on hand. Thewre would be no point in the bundesbank buying the 6 billion bond as it would be lending to itself. I do not know what the bundesbank is allowed to do but lets look at what the English situation is. They realise that investors will not buy their bonds at a price the want. To intice them to buy they would have to lower the price which would increase the rate. What they have decided is that the bank of england will just print money and buy them at a high price. This is outright inflating and is called Quantative Easing.

The ECB presumable could print money as well and buy the Irish bonds but I have not studied the ECB. The Irish could still have to pay the ECB back

If the Irish had not given up their own central bank they could buy their own bonds in a crunch but more importantly they could reliquidify the banks. This would not be an ideal solution but it would be better than what is likely to happen.

You're not a lecturer by any chance???

If my reading of you analysis is correct, the Irish bond sellers have made an important decision; They have decided that discounting is the only way they can sell the bonds.

If I'm correct, the Germans did not discount.

From a sales point of view, discounting is considered a real no-no. As with high street goods today, once you discount , the chances are that your potential customers will come to expect it in future, ie you will have to discount again and again and again.

Our Bond issue will have progressively higher rates with each new issue.

This is unsustainable. As was pointed out above, we may have winged for 2009 but subsequent years will not produce any takers

unless...

There is a turnaround in the economy.

Given the bloodbath that is Ireland Inc. its unlikely that a turnaround is in sight for 12-20 months.


What might work for 2010-2013 could be a bonds issue fron the European Central Bank.
Has this ever happened?

If the ECB issues bonds at lower rates and then purchases individual states bonds at those lower rates, then its possable the high lending could be sustainable for a few years.
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PostSubject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond /   Sun Jan 11, 2009 9:21 am

Slim. The Irish did not have a bad currency when they had the pound and it's value would depend on the government not continually deficit spending. There are some examples of what might be considered banana currencies which has strenghtened against the dollar I believe.

If in a disastor situation like the banks are in now I said that printing and recapitalizing would not be the ideal solution but it is better than what is likely to happen

I am not a lecturer Johnny but I am interested in the subject.

First the turnaround.

A turnround should it come would have 3 important impacts on bonds. 1. There would be more income for the government and therefore less bonds issued as less cash needed to be borrowed.
2. The risk of default would be less so the interest on the bond would be less.
3. A Europeanwide turnaround would bring increased expectations of inflation in the euro zone so this would raise the interest rates on new bonds. If the turnaround was just in Ireland then the bonds would not be affected.

So a localised turnround would increase the prices paid by dealers of all the Irish bonds that are out there. The prices of new Irish bonds would be similiar and the interest rates would be lower. The Germans could end up having to pay a higher inerest rate than Ireland.

The amount extra in interest one country ends up paying compared to another country is called The Risk Premium.

One could say that the Germans did not discount indeed. However they were left with some of their goods unsold and they bought them themselves. They had cash and they were not desperate. The Irish in my opinion made a smart move, which as time goes on will appear super smart, they discounted the price thereby raising the interest rate by .3% but they not only sold their goods but as much again out of the back of the van when they saw a gaggle of buyers. The price may not have been top notch but they got a lot of selling done.

It will always be the demand from the buyers which determines the price. As the amount of supply is gauranteed to grow the expectation is the demand at these prices will not be there. For demand to equal supply as it must then it is the price that must fall to bring out more buyers. So if you want your carpets sold then they have no choice but to discount. The price is not determined by the sellers.


The market will determine the interest rates on even ECB bonds. The ECB can not just say sell 5 year bonds at 2% because nobody will buy them.

When the ECB or Bank of England or Federal Reserve decide to buy their own bonds because there are not enough buyers then we are into a whole new ballgame. This is the Quantative Easing that Britain has begun. They are then just outright printing funny money and Zinbabwee is the outcome. The government steals everything from the people by this thievery that most people don't have a clear understanding of. Nobody seems to understand inflation at say 10% but everyone understands it when it is say 30%. At 300% everyone and their mother understands it
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PostSubject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond /   Sun Jan 11, 2009 3:37 pm

Possibly youngdan, but if we were on our own now, the sharks would finish us. We have no real choice but to remain in the Euro, if we can.
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PostSubject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond /   Sun Jan 11, 2009 6:52 pm

youngdan wrote:

The market will determine the interest rates on even ECB bonds. The ECB can not just say sell 5 year bonds at 2% because nobody will buy them.


This is what I'm trying to determine. Have the ECB ever issued Bonds on their own behalf? I cant seem to find anything on it in the tinterweb.
I assume the ECB does not issue bonds as it is not considered "sovereign".

Is there a case for creating "Sovereign EU Bonds".
This ,of course, would warm the cockles of my black, federalist heart. pirat
It would also be a great way of progressing the great European Federalist Agenda. MUHAHAHA......
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PostSubject: Re: The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond /   Sun Jan 11, 2009 10:15 pm

That is why ye are at 2% in the latest poll you scoundral. The early Americans wanted to be federalists too and now they have a King


I do not know whether the ECB ever issued it's own bonds. It would not surprise me what they get up to.
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