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 Foreign Exchange Watch

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PostSubject: Re: Foreign Exchange Watch   Tue Dec 23, 2008 7:39 pm

In short you are betting that sterling will rise
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PostSubject: Re: Foreign Exchange Watch   Wed Dec 24, 2008 11:00 am

youngdan wrote:
Coughlin and Odea in Texas to talk to the billionaire. I would wager that he would rather kiss a pig's ass than listen to these two lugs for an hour. Did nobody tell them that they are the reason he is going to Poland at a not inconsiderable expense.

I was not at the meeting, but I trust that he did tell them.
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PostSubject: Re: Foreign Exchange Watch   Wed Dec 24, 2008 11:54 am

expat girl wrote:
I am always amused at the Irish inferiority complex. What makes us think our Government is worse than everyone else's? There's STIFF competition out there at the moment. Anglo may have been a fiasco, but here's a list to make you think

Lehman Bros, Northern Rock, Fortis, Jerome Kerviel, Bernard Madoff, HBOS, RBS, Deutsche Bank (which has just really upset the bond market), Rod Blagojevitch, BAE systems and the alleged billion to Prince Bandar, the Iraq war, David Kelly, GEORGE W BUSH, ffs. Angela Merkel (now known as Darth Merkel to the greenies after performing a spectacular U turn on environmental issues in order to prop up the car/coal industry)....the Spanish property market, the riots in Greece, the droughts in Australia (we were told they needed to do something about their water back in the 80s), Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac. Afghanistan. India and Pakistan. Zimbabwe. Cash for honours. Gordon Brown and his divorce from Prudence. The fact that 10% of UK property is at risk of flooding. The response to Hurricane Katrina.

Are we that badly off here?? I rest my case

Merry Christmas all
Easy now Girl, you’ll tire yourself out swimming against the tide.

Everyone just knows and it’s become accepted scientific fact that Irish politicians are worse than all other politicians, probably put together. Are there not surveys and lists available on every subject under the Sun to prove that apart from being “happy” we are down there with Zimbabwe on all important measures. We even have special derogatory names for our leading politicians to prove how incompetent they are, we would not have such names if our politicians were anywhere near as good as the other superior class of politician they seem to have elsewhere.

One thing that gets my Goat is posters who say “Good post” when what they really mean is “I agree with that” or more likely “your post agrees with me”.

expat Girl, yours was a good post.
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PostSubject: Re: Foreign Exchange Watch   Wed Dec 24, 2008 12:00 pm

Good posts guys and Happy Christmas.

Like you, I don't think our politicians in office are worse than every other country's.

Unfortunately, that is not the standard they need to meet though, is it?
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PostSubject: Re: Foreign Exchange Watch   Wed Dec 24, 2008 12:17 pm

Helium Three wrote:
Good posts guys and Happy Christmas.

Like you, I don't think our politicians in office are worse than every other country's.

Unfortunately, that is not the standard they need to meet though, is it?
How true.

On the other hand, it has to be admitted that growing a third eye in your arse, no matter how ample that arse might otherwise be and walking on water to “everyone’s” satisfaction are not easily acquired skills.
There was I believe one such, a couple of thousand years ago,(even then, not a drop of true Irish blood in him) it is said, but since then, it’s been a no show.
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PostSubject: Re: Foreign Exchange Watch   Wed Dec 24, 2008 5:24 pm

I had a look through this thread for all the Irish government-bashing posts and didn't find any at all - not surprising, as its a foreign exchange thread. Its the British that get the bashing here.

That is not to say that you wouldn't find them on other threads. Of course Irish people are focused on Ireland. The issue is, could our politicians be doing better, and if so, how.
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PostSubject: Re: Foreign Exchange Watch   Wed Dec 31, 2008 8:30 am

cactus flower wrote:
I had a look through this thread for all the Irish government-bashing posts and didn't find any at all - not surprising, as its a foreign exchange thread. Its the British that get the bashing here.

That is not to say that you wouldn't find them on other threads. Of course Irish people are focused on Ireland. The issue is, could our politicians be doing better, and if so, how.

That this government is woefully inept is almost beyond question but this is a thread about foreign exchange so, since foreign exchange is thankfully beyond the control of any government, this is not the forum to comment on the uselessness of Coughlan and Hanafin, the mendacity and deviousness of Harney and the comical nonsense of Cullen and Dillie O' Wee. There are other threads where the cretinous clowning of this government can receive ample comment.

Back to forex. It seems to me that the dollar and sterling are starting to decouple. £/$ down at 1.4444 and heading south. € v $ at 1.40ish and going down and €/£ at .9750 and lunging towards parity. The £ is strongly bearish technically v everything so I expect € v £ to get stronger and breach parity before retracing. € interest rates really need to come down and I am surprised that the Germans are not insisting on this since theirs is the most export driven economy in the Eurozone.
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PostSubject: Re: Foreign Exchange Watch   Thu Jan 01, 2009 8:19 pm

when is the next ECB meeting?? I suspect we may have our answer then as to whether the Eurozone fears overpriced exports more than it fears inflation. This side of the water, fear of inflation appears to trump all else. My feeling is that we will wait until March for anything spectacular.... many of the German car factories are mothballed and they're clearing inventory till Feb. If that inventory aint gone at the end of Feb....we will see the ECB capitulate, I think.

What would be the consequences be if the US/UK were to print like bejaysus and the ECB refuses an invite to the "quantitative monetary easing" party?? One euro suddenly worth $2/ 2 quid??
Any economics heads out there with a crystal ball??

Perhaps this is a topic for another thread; but point me to any country right now that does NOT have an inept government?? I suppose Sarkosy is in the good books right now for handling the EU presidency well, but France has its own legion of economic problems...
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PostSubject: Re: Foreign Exchange Watch   Thu Jan 01, 2009 10:36 pm

expat girl wrote:
when is the next ECB meeting?? I suspect we may have our answer then as to whether the Eurozone fears overpriced exports more than it fears inflation. This side of the water, fear of inflation appears to trump all else. My feeling is that we will wait until March for anything spectacular.... many of the German car factories are mothballed and they're clearing inventory till Feb. If that inventory aint gone at the end of Feb....we will see the ECB capitulate, I think.

What would be the consequences be if the US/UK were to print like bejaysus and the ECB refuses an invite to the "quantitative monetary easing" party?? One euro suddenly worth $2/ 2 quid??
Any economics heads out there with a crystal ball??

Perhaps this is a topic for another thread; but point me to any country right now that does NOT have an inept government?? I suppose Sarkosy is in the good books right now for handling the EU presidency well, but France has its own legion of economic problems...

Suddenly, when bull changes to bear, all the geniuses suddenly become dunces, I remember Galbraith saying that in relation to the 1929 crash. There is a systemic failure going on right across the world. Good, bad or indifferent, any government would flounder. They simply don't have solutions, and there is no precedent.
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PostSubject: Re: Foreign Exchange Watch   Fri Jan 02, 2009 8:58 am

cactus flower wrote:
expat girl wrote:
when is the next ECB meeting?? I suspect we may have our answer then as to whether the Eurozone fears overpriced exports more than it fears inflation. This side of the water, fear of inflation appears to trump all else. My feeling is that we will wait until March for anything spectacular.... many of the German car factories are mothballed and they're clearing inventory till Feb. If that inventory aint gone at the end of Feb....we will see the ECB capitulate, I think.

What would be the consequences be if the US/UK were to print like bejaysus and the ECB refuses an invite to the "quantitative monetary easing" party?? One euro suddenly worth $2/ 2 quid??
Any economics heads out there with a crystal ball??

Perhaps this is a topic for another thread; but point me to any country right now that does NOT have an inept government?? I suppose Sarkosy is in the good books right now for handling the EU presidency well, but France has its own legion of economic problems...

Suddenly, when bull changes to bear, all the geniuses suddenly become dunces, I remember Galbraith saying that in relation to the 1929 crash. There is a systemic failure going on right across the world. Good, bad or indifferent, any government would flounder. They simply don't have solutions, and there is no precedent.

I am struck by the assumption that, because of the nature of this global economic downturn, no government can perform well. The system of government and those at the top of it in my country of residence have performed well, or as well as could be expected, under the circumstances. I have no doubt that corruption of some sort exists in Switzerland, but the politicians are largely free from blame due to the transparency of the system. Mind you, such a strange system could only work in Switzerland where people have to vote a minimum of 4 times a year. (They do not legally have to vote, but it is seen as very bad form if one doesn't). It certainly beats the kleptocracy which allows Beverly Cooper-Flynn receive €40,000 a year until 2012 as an "Independent" despite her returning to Fianna Fail and allows Mary Coughlan instruct that €47,000 of taxpayers money be literally pissed away in providing her with a new toilet and shower in her department. But this mindless waste is probably best addressed in another thread.
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PostSubject: Re: Foreign Exchange Watch   Fri Jan 02, 2009 2:19 pm

Slim Buddha wrote:
cactus flower wrote:
expat girl wrote:
when is the next ECB meeting?? I suspect we may have our answer then as to whether the Eurozone fears overpriced exports more than it fears inflation. This side of the water, fear of inflation appears to trump all else. My feeling is that we will wait until March for anything spectacular.... many of the German car factories are mothballed and they're clearing inventory till Feb. If that inventory aint gone at the end of Feb....we will see the ECB capitulate, I think.

What would be the consequences be if the US/UK were to print like bejaysus and the ECB refuses an invite to the "quantitative monetary easing" party?? One euro suddenly worth $2/ 2 quid??
Any economics heads out there with a crystal ball??

Perhaps this is a topic for another thread; but point me to any country right now that does NOT have an inept government?? I suppose Sarkosy is in the good books right now for handling the EU presidency well, but France has its own legion of economic problems...

Suddenly, when bull changes to bear, all the geniuses suddenly become dunces, I remember Galbraith saying that in relation to the 1929 crash. There is a systemic failure going on right across the world. Good, bad or indifferent, any government would flounder. They simply don't have solutions, and there is no precedent.

I am struck by the assumption that, because of the nature of this global economic downturn, no government can perform well. The system of government and those at the top of it in my country of residence have performed well, or as well as could be expected, under the circumstances. I have no doubt that corruption of some sort exists in Switzerland, but the politicians are largely free from blame due to the transparency of the system. Mind you, such a strange system could only work in Switzerland where people have to vote a minimum of 4 times a year. (They do not legally have to vote, but it is seen as very bad form if one doesn't). It certainly beats the kleptocracy which allows Beverly Cooper-Flynn receive €40,000 a year until 2012 as an "Independent" despite her returning to Fianna Fail and allows Mary Coughlan instruct that €47,000 of taxpayers money be literally pissed away in providing her with a new toilet and shower in her department. But this mindless waste is probably best addressed in another thread.

There is a "Good Government" thread just started here. I'd love to ask you some questions about Swiss government on it Surprised
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PostSubject: Re: Foreign Exchange Watch   Sat Jan 03, 2009 6:52 am

Back in the world of forex, yesterdays range-trading and book-straightening was simply getting the runners and riders ready for Monday morning.

€/$ at 1.3918
€/£ at 0.9569
$/Y at 91.81
$/CHF at 1.0794
£/$ at 1.4545

On the technicals, the € v $ and CHF is strongly bullish, and bullish v £ looking to move back above 96 and beyond 97 again. Next week, volume returns to the market and while we may see some significant moves to Thursday, the unemployment figure on Friday in the US will dominate developments. Expect Friday afternoon to be busy.
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PostSubject: Re: Foreign Exchange Watch   Sat Jan 03, 2009 11:30 am

There is plenty of news coming up. Negative for the dollar will be the auto sales if they have collapsed as I expect. Then the bottomless pit will be recognised as it is. The states are now asking for a trillion as well as the Obama trillion as well as a trillion for miscellanious. If the real estate collapses add a trillion for Fanny.

That will detonate the bond market for sure
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PostSubject: Re: Foreign Exchange Watch   Sat Jan 03, 2009 12:53 pm

If what you are saying comes to pass, youngdan, the bond market is in serious trouble. Got stung in bonds so I stick to forex "where there is always a bull market". Sometimes the knack is in finding it when it's staring you in the face. Shocked
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PostSubject: Re: Foreign Exchange Watch   Sat Jan 03, 2009 1:44 pm

Well the collapse of the bond market would collapse the dollar.

I never traded either or indeed any futures market. I play the options market as a limit to ones losses is the most important thing for me.

It is no surprise that you were stung in the bond market. There has been a crazy jump this past while. I was sure when the 10 year hit 3% the the yield had hit bottom and said so on P.ie and now it is touching 2%. It will be viewed as a once in a lifetime sell from possible Monday as it really is incredible.
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PostSubject: Re: Foreign Exchange Watch   Sat Jan 03, 2009 6:47 pm

youngdan wrote:
Well the collapse of the bond market would collapse the dollar.

I never traded either or indeed any futures market. I play the options market as a limit to ones losses is the most important thing for me.

It is no surprise that you were stung in the bond market. There has been a crazy jump this past while. I was sure when the 10 year hit 3% the the yield had hit bottom and said so on P.ie and now it is touching 2%. It will be viewed as a once in a lifetime sell from possible Monday as it really is incredible.

As all the majors look horrible in the forex market when one assesses current fundamental factors, the interest rate differential is working for the Euro and, in my opinion, will continue to do so for as long as it remains at its current level. Of course, these fundamental factors will change but as the east European exposures become known and defaults kick in, the Euro will look a lot shakier as interest rates come into line. "Quantative easing" will hit sterling and that is something being hotly debated by the Swiss National Bank right now (behind closed doors, of course). I still think, Dan, that the dollar, far from getting crushed, will appreciate given the global necessity to hold the greenback to buy almost any commodity wholesale and also to transport it anywhere by sea. And as long as energy is priced in dollars, the dollar is needed. Its basic stuff, I know, but will always provide a floor of sorts which other currencies don't have. I am interested to see if this year we find markets which in the past have operated relationally beginning to decouple. You alluded to the bond and the dollar above. Maybe these could break the cause and consequence relationship and move independently of each other this year. Let's face it, anything is possible.
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PostSubject: Re: Foreign Exchange Watch   Sat Jan 03, 2009 10:08 pm

Well anything is possible indeed and throw in rule changes on top to further increase the likelyhood of loss. Who knows, a week from now the middle east could be a total war.

When I talk about the bond market I expect a complete panic crash resulting in a dollar panic. A small fall with just a few % rise in interest rates would strenghten the dollar but I don't expect smooth sailing like that
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PostSubject: Re: Foreign Exchange Watch   Mon Jan 05, 2009 11:36 am

Dollar on the way up. € v $ at 1.3680, $ v Y at 92.91, $ v $ at 1.4450, $ v CHF at 1.0950. Big buying of the $ against all the majors. € v £ at 0.9450.

All in all, an interesting start. As Dan said, the bond market will be one to watch, as will the figure on Friday. But so far, all the action is in the dollar, with the crosses quiet by comparison.
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PostSubject: Re: Foreign Exchange Watch   Mon Jan 05, 2009 1:37 pm

€ dipped below 0.9400 briefly v £, $ above 93 v Y and above 1.1000 v CHF. Big, big dollar buying.
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PostSubject: Re: Foreign Exchange Watch   Mon Jan 05, 2009 6:19 pm

What a start sure enough, just when I thought the days of dollar buying for safety were over
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PostSubject: Re: Foreign Exchange Watch   Mon Jan 05, 2009 6:21 pm

youngdan wrote:
What a start sure enough, just when I thought the days of dollar buying for safety were over

Can't see the bond market at the moment, Dan. Anything happening there to support the dollar bid action we're seeing or is this all safety and rebalancing?
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PostSubject: Re: Foreign Exchange Watch   Mon Jan 05, 2009 11:17 pm

I doubt the days of dollar buying for safety will be over any time soon. Logically, they should be, but depressions aint logical
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PostSubject: Re: Foreign Exchange Watch   Tue Jan 06, 2009 12:45 pm

Sterling making something of a comeback on the back of a major dollar move to the upside. Now at 0.9132 v €. $ v € at 1.3434 having gone below 1.3400. $ v CHF at 1.1185 having gone above 1.1200.

Hard to say what is actually driving this apart from technical trading since no serious figure out yet to justify this magnitude of move over 48 hours. Fridays US unemployment figure is the only biggie out this week but FFS this is Tuesday!
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PostSubject: Re: Foreign Exchange Watch   Wed Jan 07, 2009 5:49 pm

After two days of selling Euros, the forex market is having an inside day and the Euro trending upwards against the dollar, and is trading now at 1.3684. It is trading against the pound at 0.9065 having gone down to 0.9016. If this stays below 0.9135, I see a move down to 0.8710 and then lower. However if it goes above 0.9135 and expecially if it goes beyond 0.9380, then the bear trend is broken.
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PostSubject: Re: Foreign Exchange Watch   Wed Jan 07, 2009 5:51 pm

Slim Buddha wrote:
After two days of selling Euros, the forex market is having an inside day and the Euro trending upwards against the dollar, and is trading now at 1.3684. It is trading against the pound at 0.9065 having gone down to 0.9016. If this stays below 0.9135, I see a move down to 0.8710 and then lower. However if it goes above 0.9135 and expecially if it goes beyond 0.9380, then the bear trend is broken.

Any idea why sterling is going up in relation to the euro?
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