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 Foreign Exchange Watch

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PostSubject: Foreign Exchange Watch   Fri Oct 24, 2008 1:46 pm

I'm opening this simply because there is no designated thread to observe the movements in the forex market. Today is as good a time as any to do it because we are seeing a massive piling into the yen.

€/$ 1/1.26
$/Yen 92 down 5.5 yen
£/$ 1/1.55 down 7 cents
£/yen 142.8 down 16.8 yen
€/CHF 1/1.445 down 5 rappen
CHF/Yen 79.3 down 5 yen
£/CHF 1/1.787 down 10 rappen

Basically, there is a massive move out of the "Anglo" currencies to the yen and to a much lesser extent the Swiss Franc. This has been building up for a long time but to see it move so much on a Friday is odd. The US forex market slowly opening up now so if the sell off continues the Euro could see 1.20 today.
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PostSubject: Re: Foreign Exchange Watch   Fri Oct 24, 2008 2:03 pm

Unless I have some sterling in my pocket, I never pay attention to currencies. I can see why people are piling into Yen but I can't see why the Euro is doing so badly at the moment. I suppose that Japan has been in such a prolonged deflationary period that the Yen is solid at this moment whereas the expectation for deflation in the Eurozone is just beginning.

Then again, I don't see why there was such a large sell off on the European bourses today. There's absolutely no fundamental news that us outsiders could possibly link to the selling today. Sure, my cat knows that the major economies of the world are in recession, so all this talk about corp earnings and GDP declines is pure nonsense at this stage.
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PostSubject: Re: Foreign Exchange Watch   Fri Oct 24, 2008 2:22 pm

Could it just be that the old fight and flight juices have kicked in? Are the markets ever irrational?
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PostSubject: Re: Foreign Exchange Watch   Fri Oct 24, 2008 2:34 pm

cactus flower wrote:
Could it just be that the old fight and flight juices have kicked in? Are the markets ever irrational?

Some bourses were down nearly 10% this morning. You might have a point but I can't believe that it's just an emotional response after the turmoil we've recently experienced. At this point all the small players and even many big players have been forced out of the markets. A recession, while bad in and of itelf, wouldn't stop the "expert" pundits from making predictions about turning corners and all such nonsense. Usually they'd have some fools buying the "expert" analysis. Noboby's buying what anyone is saying right now. I'm not suggesting that there is a big news item lurking to explode, but that the market makers themselves seem to believe that the whole financial market is severly holed below the water line. The pumps are working at full steam but the boat's still listing to one side. The panic, imo, will subside but there's more happening on the ground than the bloombergs of this world are telling the public.

Right now I'm working on Dow charts since the turn of the 20th century to see how other downturns have occured. It will be interesting to see if the recent crisis in terms of falls in such a short time span occured in yester-years.
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PostSubject: Re: Foreign Exchange Watch   Fri Oct 24, 2008 3:52 pm

rockyracoon wrote:
cactus flower wrote:
Could it just be that the old fight and flight juices have kicked in? Are the markets ever irrational?

Some bourses were down nearly 10% this morning. You might have a point but I can't believe that it's just an emotional response after the turmoil we've recently experienced. At this point all the small players and even many big players have been forced out of the markets. A recession, while bad in and of itelf, wouldn't stop the "expert" pundits from making predictions about turning corners and all such nonsense. Usually they'd have some fools buying the "expert" analysis. Noboby's buying what anyone is saying right now. I'm not suggesting that there is a big news item lurking to explode, but that the market makers themselves seem to believe that the whole financial market is severly holed below the water line. The pumps are working at full steam but the boat's still listing to one side. The panic, imo, will subside but there's more happening on the ground than the bloombergs of this world are telling the public.

Right now I'm working on Dow charts since the turn of the 20th century to see how other downturns have occured. It will be interesting to see if the recent crisis in terms of falls in such a short time span occured in yester-years.

That sounds very interesting. The higher they go, imo the harder they fall. My guess is that what is happening now is unprecedented. I find the media comparisons with the 1980s as toxic and misleading as the former mantra of "Ireland is the richest country in the world".

The anger in a farmers meeting on the radio' yesterday was I think much greater than the pensioners. Their whole lives and their sons/daughters in some cases have been built and organised for years around the farm retirement scheme that has just been pulled. A farmer was yelling that there was no work in America and no work in Europe, and now they were killing off agriculture.

Ýour Titanic image is thought-provoking.
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PostSubject: Re: Foreign Exchange Watch   Fri Oct 24, 2008 4:43 pm

Antipodean currencies getting a hammering on the spot forex market. Aussie dollar down 9% v the USD and CHF. 14% v Yen. down 7% v €. NZD down 13% v Yen. British pound at 0.81 v €, down 5% v CHF, 15% v Yen and 5% v USD. This is a massive move into the Yen with no real explanation for it. € v Yen down 8%. Strange stuff indeed.


BTW, cactus flower, your reference to the "Ireland is the richest country in the world" mantra brought a smile to my face. Really, anybody who, for a nanosecond, believed that tosh, should seek psychiatric treatment immediately.
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PostSubject: Re: Foreign Exchange Watch   Fri Oct 24, 2008 5:00 pm

Slim Buddha wrote:
Antipodean currencies getting a hammering on the spot forex market. Aussie dollar down 9% v the USD and CHF. 14% v Yen. down 7% v €. NZD down 13% v Yen. British pound at 0.81 v €, down 5% v CHF, 15% v Yen and 5% v USD. This is a massive move into the Yen with no real explanation for it. € v Yen down 8%. Strange stuff indeed.


BTW, cactus flower, your reference to the "Ireland is the richest country in the world" mantra brought a smile to my face. Really, anybody who, for a nanosecond, believed that tosh, should seek psychiatric treatment immediately.

95% of Irish journos? geek Mad
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PostSubject: Re: Foreign Exchange Watch   Fri Oct 24, 2008 5:23 pm

cactus flower wrote:
Slim Buddha wrote:
Antipodean currencies getting a hammering on the spot forex market. Aussie dollar down 9% v the USD and CHF. 14% v Yen. down 7% v €. NZD down 13% v Yen. British pound at 0.81 v €, down 5% v CHF, 15% v Yen and 5% v USD. This is a massive move into the Yen with no real explanation for it. € v Yen down 8%. Strange stuff indeed.


BTW, cactus flower, your reference to the "Ireland is the richest country in the world" mantra brought a smile to my face. Really, anybody who, for a nanosecond, believed that tosh, should seek psychiatric treatment immediately.

95% of Irish journos? geek Mad

The muckspreaders of the 21st century
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PostSubject: Re: Foreign Exchange Watch   Fri Oct 24, 2008 6:39 pm

Slim Buddha wrote:
cactus flower wrote:
Slim Buddha wrote:
Antipodean currencies getting a hammering on the spot forex market. Aussie dollar down 9% v the USD and CHF. 14% v Yen. down 7% v €. NZD down 13% v Yen. British pound at 0.81 v €, down 5% v CHF, 15% v Yen and 5% v USD. This is a massive move into the Yen with no real explanation for it. € v Yen down 8%. Strange stuff indeed.


BTW, cactus flower, your reference to the "Ireland is the richest country in the world" mantra brought a smile to my face. Really, anybody who, for a nanosecond, believed that tosh, should seek psychiatric treatment immediately.

95% of Irish journos? geek Mad

The muckspreaders of the 21st century

But not our Kate P queen
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PostSubject: Re: Foreign Exchange Watch   Mon Oct 27, 2008 5:04 pm

Anybody looking for excitement in the financial markets in the near future (as if we didn't have enough already) could do worse than to look at the forex market for fireworks. Well, that is if this is to be believed.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/3260052/Europe-on-the-brink-of-currency-crisis-meltdown.html
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PostSubject: Re: Foreign Exchange Watch   Mon Oct 27, 2008 7:01 pm

Slim Buddha wrote:
Anybody looking for excitement in the financial markets in the near future (as if we didn't have enough already) could do worse than to look at the forex market for fireworks. Well, that is if this is to be believed.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/3260052/Europe-on-the-brink-of-currency-crisis-meltdown.html

Quote :
Austria’s bank exposure to emerging markets is equal to 85pc of GDP – with a heavy concentration in Hungary, Ukraine, and Serbia – all now queuing up (with Belarus) for rescue packages from the International Monetary Fund.

Exposure is 50pc of GDP for Switzerland, 25pc for Sweden, 24pc for the UK, and 23pc for Spain. The US figure is just 4pc. America is the staid old lady in this drama
.

That's scary stuff Slimbuddha. It sounds like a firestorm.
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PostSubject: Re: Foreign Exchange Watch   Mon Oct 27, 2008 10:43 pm

cactus flower wrote:
Slim Buddha wrote:
Anybody looking for excitement in the financial markets in the near future (as if we didn't have enough already) could do worse than to look at the forex market for fireworks. Well, that is if this is to be believed.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/3260052/Europe-on-the-brink-of-currency-crisis-meltdown.html

Quote :
Austria’s bank exposure to emerging markets is equal to 85pc of GDP – with a heavy concentration in Hungary, Ukraine, and Serbia – all now queuing up (with Belarus) for rescue packages from the International Monetary Fund.

Exposure is 50pc of GDP for Switzerland, 25pc for Sweden, 24pc for the UK, and 23pc for Spain. The US figure is just 4pc. America is the staid old lady in this drama
.

That's scary stuff Slimbuddha. It sounds like a firestorm.

Well, cactus flower, with the Swiss exposure at 50% and UBS being hauled over the coals daily in the press for continuing to pay bonuses after receiving CHF 68 billion of taxpayers money, it is a cause for concern (if you live in Switzerland, of course!)But the wider ramifications are scary. The Euro could get severely tested before Christmas.
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PostSubject: Re: Foreign Exchange Watch   Tue Oct 28, 2008 1:54 am

Has anyone ever used one of those big coin counting machines in Supervalu? I know they charge you commission but I literally have a bucket of coins and I am not bothered counting them. Do you know if you can tip a bucket of coins into them or will it sort of break if I pour that many in?
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PostSubject: Re: Foreign Exchange Watch   Tue Oct 28, 2008 2:08 am

johnfás wrote:
Has anyone ever used one of those big coin counting machines in Supervalu? I know they charge you commission but I literally have a bucket of coins and I am not bothered counting them. Do you know if you can tip a bucket of coins into them or will it sort of break if I pour that many in?
They charge you 9.4% in the ones I saw. You put in a hundred euros in change and it gives you ninety. No way hozay. Those robots are the the evil machines johnfás stay away from them.

I'll put a permanent link to this thread in the 'Teaconomics' section of the portal Slim so you can find it there if it needs updating.


Last edited by Auditor #9 on Tue Oct 28, 2008 2:10 am; edited 1 time in total
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PostSubject: Re: Foreign Exchange Watch   Tue Oct 28, 2008 2:10 am

Auditor #9 wrote:
johnfás wrote:
Has anyone ever used one of those big coin counting machines in Supervalu? I know they charge you commission but I literally have a bucket of coins and I am not bothered counting them. Do you know if you can tip a bucket of coins into them or will it sort of break if I pour that many in?
They charge you 9.4% in the ones I saw. You put in a hundred euros in change and it gives you ninety. No way hozay. Those robots are the the evil machines johnfás stay away from them.

I've a much better idea. Put it all in a fruit machine somewhere. The risk is higher that 1-9, but it would be a lot more fun.
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PostSubject: Re: Foreign Exchange Watch   Tue Oct 28, 2008 2:15 am

Can you put 1c coins in fruit machines? I know the parking meters in Dublin won't take less than 10c coins Evil or Very Mad
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PostSubject: Re: Foreign Exchange Watch   Tue Oct 28, 2008 2:39 am

johnfás wrote:
Can you put 1c coins in fruit machines? I know the parking meters in Dublin won't take less than 10c coins Evil or Very Mad

1c? You might have to pay to take them away. Or hold on to them until the scrap is worth more than the face value? Shocked
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PostSubject: Re: Foreign Exchange Watch   Tue Oct 28, 2008 3:04 am

They're all 1c, 2c and 5c, the majority would be 1c and 2c. But there must be a fair amount there, you only need 20 x 5c to get a euro.
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PostSubject: Re: Foreign Exchange Watch   Tue Oct 28, 2008 12:14 pm

johnfás wrote:
They're all 1c, 2c and 5c, the majority would be 1c and 2c. But there must be a fair amount there, you only need 20 x 5c to get a euro.

If you put them in little plastic bags (the bank should give them to you) by denomination, the bank should then be able to weigh them, instead of counting them, and put the total amount into your account.
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PostSubject: Re: Foreign Exchange Watch   Tue Oct 28, 2008 1:30 pm

The dollar seems to be retaining recent strength in the forex market across the board with MAs, stochastics and RSI analysis all indicating that this is set to continue. On a fundamental level, I think there are a couple of logical reasons for this.

1. All the wholesale prices for mojor world agricultural and mining commodities including oil are priced in dollars and
2. there is a major unwinding of hedge fund positions and CDS/CDO interbank positions occurring for which dollars are needed.

Anybody else got any views on this?
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PostSubject: Re: Foreign Exchange Watch   Tue Oct 28, 2008 2:25 pm

Yoinked the coin counting machine from Church for an hour, bagged and exchanged for cash in the bank. There was €56.03 in coppers.
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PostSubject: Re: Foreign Exchange Watch   Tue Oct 28, 2008 3:19 pm

johnfás wrote:
Yoinked the coin counting machine from Church for an hour, bagged and exchanged for cash in the bank. There was €56.03 in coppers.

did you render onto caesar what was caesar's?
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PostSubject: Re: Foreign Exchange Watch   Tue Oct 28, 2008 3:41 pm

Slim Buddha wrote:
The dollar seems to be retaining recent strength in the forex market across the board with MAs, stochastics and RSI analysis all indicating that this is set to continue. On a fundamental level, I think there are a couple of logical reasons for this.

1. All the wholesale prices for major world agricultural and mining commodities including oil are priced in dollars and
2. there is a major unwinding of hedge fund positions and CDS/CDO interbank positions occurring for which dollars are needed.

Anybody else got any views on this?

I'm out of my depth in the detail of this, but is there a feeling that the talk of a new Bretton Woods may come to nothing ? Talking about it is one thing, but doing it quite another. It might be the sort of thing to happen step by step, or else if there was a complete collapse of the dollar. The euro is not looking perky at the moment because of the E.European and Latin American loans.
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PostSubject: Re: Foreign Exchange Watch   Tue Oct 28, 2008 3:55 pm

zakalwe wrote:
johnfás wrote:
Yoinked the coin counting machine from Church for an hour, bagged and exchanged for cash in the bank. There was €56.03 in coppers.

did you render onto caesar what was caesar's?

Well the money was already mine so I had nothing to render unto Caesar Very Happy. That said I will put a portion of it back into the Church on the Sunday Collection plate, but the Church is not Caesar... when it seeks to become him, that is where the problem starts.
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PostSubject: Re: Foreign Exchange Watch   Tue Oct 28, 2008 4:09 pm

cactus flower wrote:
Slim Buddha wrote:
The dollar seems to be retaining recent strength in the forex market across the board with MAs, stochastics and RSI analysis all indicating that this is set to continue. On a fundamental level, I think there are a couple of logical reasons for this.

1. All the wholesale prices for major world agricultural and mining commodities including oil are priced in dollars and
2. there is a major unwinding of hedge fund positions and CDS/CDO interbank positions occurring for which dollars are needed.

Anybody else got any views on this?

I'm out of my depth in the detail of this, but is there a feeling that the talk of a new Bretton Woods may come to nothing ? Talking about it is one thing, but doing it quite another. It might be the sort of thing to happen step by step, or else if there was a complete collapse of the dollar. The euro is not looking perky at the moment because of the E.European and Latin American loans.

No doubt about it, Bretton Woods needs updating. No longer relevant to todays environment. But asking Dick Cheney to voluntarily give up a piece of American power is the ultimate asking of a turkey to vote for Christmas. It won't happen. The dollar is not going to collapse for a while but, like youngdan, I see it as a long term sell. For the reasons I outlined above, I think it will remain bid short term. Yen and, to a lesser extent, Swiss Franc, safe havens at the moment.
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