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 Prime Time Heckle - The widening hole in the public accounts - carers, ideascampaign.ie

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PostSubject: Re: Prime Time Heckle - The widening hole in the public accounts - carers, ideascampaign.ie   Thu Mar 05, 2009 2:02 pm

I've always wondered the fascination of new builds. Give me an 1880s redbrick with character any day.
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PostSubject: Re: Prime Time Heckle - The widening hole in the public accounts - carers, ideascampaign.ie   Thu Mar 05, 2009 2:45 pm

candide wrote:
Stamp duty was the means of damaging the second-hand house market. First time buyer's grants were a subvention to builders and drove up the prices of new houses.

The ultimate value of a home is measured in how many years in the nursing home it will pay for, and at €60,000 a year currently, that's not many. Perhaps house price estimates now should be in NHYs, like say 5 or 6. That might focus the mind a little. And for the little old ladies whose savings from the sale of their home are now dwindling at the rate of €60,000 a year, and who probably don't even realise that fewer than two NHY equivalents are now guaranteed by the state indemnification of the banks, I would not like to see DIRT increased for them.

I'm kinda wondering why didn't someone calculate the sustainability of all the debt that was starting to accumulate in terms of the projected demand and production etc.? Surely this isn't overly complicated economics - don't they have an equation for all these things? Maybe someone has worked it out and we'll survive but just by the skin of our teeth - you know, like some people who live life to the visa max and wing it from paypacket to paypacket - Mr. and Mrs. "There's a lot of month left at the end of the money" and their long-fingered children.

The ECB are making an announcement at 12:45 today - it should come as a relief to some although if they are relying on 50 quid to ease their pain where are you?

If there is €300 billion worth of mortgage debt and if every 100k creates a drop of €100 when there is a 1% drop then a 0.5% drop will generate €50 which is €1.5 million a month is it? That's not as good as the penny on the text messages ... Crying or Very sad
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PostSubject: Re: Prime Time Heckle - The widening hole in the public accounts - carers, ideascampaign.ie   Thu Mar 05, 2009 3:25 pm

These are some of my predictions of what will cuts and charges will be introduced over the next two years. Note, stating this is what I think will happen does not mean that they are cuts or charges that I would necessarily support - merely what I think will happen.

Cuts
- Means testing Child Benefit
- Reduction in Social Welfare (in line with reduction in cost of living)
- Introduction of Third Level Fees
- Further cut backs in some educational supports

Taxation
- Increase in the higher and standard rate of tax
- Creation of a third tax band (at the upper level)
- Broadening of the tax net to catch more people on lower incomes

Charges
- Water charges
- Increase in duty on petrol / alcohol / cigarettes
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PostSubject: Re: Prime Time Heckle - The widening hole in the public accounts - carers, ideascampaign.ie   Thu Mar 05, 2009 3:30 pm

http://www.efip.co.uk/index.php?page=news.art&article=180
Quote :
The Bank of Ireland 's annual "Wealth of the Nation" report estimated that there are more than 33,000 millionaires in Ireland, a country of 4.2 million people, which represents an increase of 10% from 2005.
Some verification please? Are they net millionaires or debt millionaires? How much is property? Did Dan McLaughlin make this "estimate"?
Quote :
The report said the past 13 years of rapid economic growth, known as the Celtic Tiger, has been a boon for Ireland's wealthiest people, as the top 1% of people now hold 20% of the nation's wealth, and the top 5% own about 40% of Ireland’s wealth. According to Pat O'Sullivan, senior economist at the bank's Private Banking unit, the surge in individual net wealth is mainly due to a 20% growth in the value of residential and buy-to-let property.
That 20% has now evaporated leaving these people worth less than zero. This means the percentages are totally unreliable. If it is mainly attributable to property then how much of the rest is attributable to shares?
Quote :

The value of property accounted for as much as 72% of average household wealth in 2006.
Nobody can get their hands on what is left of such wealth becasue it is impossible to sell property.
Quote :
On top of this, the Irish are saving more money than the majority of the world putting aside 14% of disposable incomes.
Aaaa-bullshit-choooo
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PostSubject: Re: Prime Time Heckle - The widening hole in the public accounts - carers, ideascampaign.ie   Thu Mar 05, 2009 3:31 pm

They are all certain to happen. I really don't like the means test unless it is something blunt like
Quote :
anyone paying tax at the top rate doesn't get the child benefit
The idea of having an army of pencil pushers in there sifting though my bank statements to see if I'm entitled to child benefit or not is madly wasteful.
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PostSubject: Re: Prime Time Heckle - The widening hole in the public accounts - carers, ideascampaign.ie   Thu Mar 05, 2009 3:32 pm

Never mind.


Last edited by coc on Thu Mar 05, 2009 4:06 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : shouting has stopped)
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PostSubject: Re: Prime Time Heckle - The widening hole in the public accounts - carers, ideascampaign.ie   Thu Mar 05, 2009 3:34 pm

Zhou_Enlai wrote:
http://www.efip.co.uk/index.php?page=news.art&article=180
Quote :
The Bank of Ireland 's annual "Wealth of the Nation" report estimated that there are more than 33,000 millionaires in Ireland, a country of 4.2 million people, which represents an increase of 10% from 2005.
Some verification please? Are they net millionaires or debt millionaires? How much is property? Did Dan McLaughlin make this "estimate"?
Quote :
The report said the past 13 years of rapid economic growth, known as the Celtic Tiger, has been a boon for Ireland's wealthiest people, as the top 1% of people now hold 20% of the nation's wealth, and the top 5% own about 40% of Ireland’s wealth. According to Pat O'Sullivan, senior economist at the bank's Private Banking unit, the surge in individual net wealth is mainly due to a 20% growth in the value of residential and buy-to-let property.
That 20% has now evaporated leaving these people worth less than zero. This means the percentages are totally unreliable. If it is mainly attributable to property then how much of the rest is attributable to shares?
Quote :

The value of property accounted for as much as 72% of average household wealth in 2006.
Nobody can get their hands on what is left of such wealth becasue it is impossible to sell property.
Quote :
On top of this, the Irish are saving more money than the majority of the world putting aside 14% of disposable incomes.
Aaaa-bullshit-choooo

Has anyone got any better figures on wealth ownership in Ireland ?
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PostSubject: Re: Prime Time Heckle - The widening hole in the public accounts - carers, ideascampaign.ie   Thu Mar 05, 2009 3:51 pm

I wouldn't think so... how are you going to gauge wealth ownership when we're in a state of complete flux? If you had your wealth in Bank of Ireland shares you are now half as wealthy as you were last week and you might be three times as wealthy next week depending on Government policy.

That report is flawed, the one thing it does show is the folly that Irish society whipped itself into, commissioning reports to massage the nation's ego that it was now the "wealthiest" on the planet, all the time ignoring the eroding foundations on which it was built and its inevitable demise.

As our good Lord Jesus Christ said - build your house on solid rock, not sand.
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PostSubject: Re: Prime Time Heckle - The widening hole in the public accounts - carers, ideascampaign.ie   Thu Mar 05, 2009 4:15 pm

So what are they going to tax next month ? What can we go and stock up on big style in order to get a break of a month or two.

Will fags be seriously taxed
petrol upped by much
chocolate
drink

all the good things of life.
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PostSubject: Re: Prime Time Heckle - The widening hole in the public accounts - carers, ideascampaign.ie   Thu Mar 05, 2009 4:17 pm

Auditor #9 wrote:
So what are they going to tax next month ? What can we go and stock up on big style in order to get a break of a month or two.

Will fags be seriously taxed
petrol upped by much
chocolate
drink

all the good things of life.
Relax, they'll never tax the women.
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PostSubject: Re: Prime Time Heckle - The widening hole in the public accounts - carers, ideascampaign.ie   Thu Mar 05, 2009 4:24 pm

tonys wrote:
Relax, they'll never tax the women.

Could be a good money earner. Glad to see you are thinking outside the box, tonys.
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PostSubject: Re: Prime Time Heckle - The widening hole in the public accounts - carers, ideascampaign.ie   Thu Mar 05, 2009 4:26 pm

johnfás wrote:
tonys wrote:
Relax, they'll never tax the women.

Could be a good money earner. Glad to see you are thinking outside the box, tonys.
That's below the belt.
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PostSubject: Re: Prime Time Heckle - The widening hole in the public accounts - carers, ideascampaign.ie   Thu Mar 05, 2009 4:31 pm

Soc on the Pin has these kind of suggestions :

Quote :
Off the top of my head and in no particular order

1) Get rid of the early childcare allowance and then set up vastly reduced cost state sponsored childcare with state insurance. Creates more disposable income for families while generating revenue for the state.

2) Benchmark pay in the PS against other Eurozone countries.

3) Slash the HSE - as a body it's shit and couldn't be any more inefficient

4) Property tax for all properties other than your primary residence

5) Force a clearing price for unsold new housing stock - you own a the main builders bank for fucks sake so bloody use that and stop taking shit from your bent builder mates

6) Bring in a water charge - start with flat rate and work towards metering over time

7) Abolish the ridiculous situation of allowing developers tax breaks for land that has reduced in value since purchasing - you invested, there are risks, you lost so tough shit

8.) Abolish all tax shelters for the wealthy - if you don't like it then f**k off to another country

9) Cap politician salaries - the idea that fucking idiots like Daragh O'Brien are earning 100k+ is a farce - guys like him aren't fit to polish my shoes let alone talk shit on some shitty quango.

10) Cut social welfare payments 10%

11) Introduce a US style requirement that all recipients of social welfare for more than 6 months have to prove they are actively looking for a job

12) Alternatively insist that long term recipients of social welfare, i.e. 6 months+ have to do community based work before they receive any dole payments

13) Increase the current low tax rate to 22%

14) Increase the current high tax rate to 43%

15) Establish a new lower tax band for those on lower incomes (say 15k - 20k) and set hte rate at 12%.

16) Establish a new higher tax band for those earning 100k+ (single income assessment NOT joint) and set the rate at 46%
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PostSubject: Re: Prime Time Heckle - The widening hole in the public accounts - carers, ideascampaign.ie   Thu Mar 05, 2009 4:57 pm

johnfás wrote:
tonys wrote:
Relax, they'll never tax the women.

Could be a good money earner. Glad to see you are thinking outside the box, tonys.
Since we're thinking outside the, ahem, box, here's a few more ideas.
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PostSubject: Re: Prime Time Heckle - The widening hole in the public accounts - carers, ideascampaign.ie   Thu Mar 05, 2009 4:59 pm

Fintan O'Toole (I think) was on prime time on Monday and was saying that cutting Govt subsidies for private sector pensions would save a good few billion... anyone else got any facts on that one??

Pensions bloodbath is nigh, anyway. Wouldn't be surprised to see those of us in the public sector paying the full cost of our pensions by the end of all this.

As for taxing women..... or men for that matter.... what is the likely effect of all this on the birthrate?? I would have expected it to plummet, until I got to thinking about what happens when people decide to go easy on the contraceptives to "save money"???
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PostSubject: Re: Prime Time Heckle - The widening hole in the public accounts - carers, ideascampaign.ie   Thu Mar 05, 2009 5:13 pm

I can see them putting a limit on the contributions to a private pension scheme for which you can claim tax relief. However, I can't seem them abolishing the scheme in any sense. Private pensions have been absolutely wiped out so we do need to still encourage people to invest money into them.... we'll just end up with more people reliant on the state otherwise.

Declining birthrates would be a terrible thing for our economy... on the one hand less people can afford children at the moment but on the other I'd say couples who are both unemployed will be having a whole lot more sex Very Happy.
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PostSubject: Re: Prime Time Heckle - The widening hole in the public accounts - carers, ideascampaign.ie   Thu Mar 05, 2009 5:26 pm

O'Toole suggested this on air first on Prime Time Tuesday and he's talking about emergency measures applicable for two to three years which would be abandoned once we're back on our feet he says.

He reckons it will raise nearly 3 billion.

He had a right belter about it with Moore McDowell yesterday on Pat Kenny - McDowell postively rubbishing the whole thing and Pat coming around to some tolerance of the idea once O'Toole said it could be tweaked to not punish the lower-paid who are also contributing to a pension.

Seriously - someone earning 100k-300k-500k-800k a year - are they really the kinds of people who are worrying about what the future might be holding for their pension values ???? (shouldn't we be thinking of starting to provide a decent future for everyone from now on after this latest meltdown) I think this is well worth thinking about as a suggestion.

Have a listen and see how you feel:

http://www.rte.ie/radio1/player_av.html?0,null,200,http://dynamic.rte.ie/quickaxs/209-rte-todaywithpatkenny-Wednesday.smil



Quote :
Draconian new April budget will aim to raise €4.5bn

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/frontpage/2009/0305/1224242305529.html

The new budget will come on top of the €2 billion pension levy announced last month and the €2 billion package of savings and tax measures contained in the 2009 budget announced last October.

The Opposition parties were briefed on the scale of the problem by Department of Finance officials yesterday and have been invited by Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan to make their own suggestions about what should be in the budget.

Fine Gael, the Labour Party and Sinn Féin have indicated that they intend to take up the offer to make budget submissions, which will be costed by Finance officials.

The budget developments came on a day when the latest unemployment figures showed another dramatic jump of 26,700. The total now stands at almost 353,000, bringing the unemployment rate to 10.4 per cent of the workforce.
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PostSubject: Re: Prime Time Heckle - The widening hole in the public accounts - carers, ideascampaign.ie   Thu Mar 05, 2009 6:41 pm

Water tax - extremely unlikely - political suicide. Reduce ESB and gas bills and then impose water charges? People have a misplaced philosophical objection to paying for water. A novel idea might be to have drainage rates!

Doestic Rates - possibly in the future as part of Local Authority reform. Local Authorities will face huge problems. Defaults on commercial rates and levies are increasing. Recycling is becoming more expensive. Commercial rates are an anti-employment tax soa lternatives must be found.

Pensions - there is already a limit in place. This may be decreased. Beyond that, our pension deficit problem is real and serious and the economic emergency has not yet changed that. If anything, it has exacerbated it.

Tax on property? Should have been done during the bubble to calm things down. Doing it now makes no sense. Not only would you be kicking people when they are down, increasing rates of default to creditors, encouraging fire sales and trying to get money out of illiquid assets, you would also cause further devaluation of the banks' loan books. Will we have roofless houses littered aroun the country-side again?

Obligation to do community dased work for dole and social welfare recipients? I think there is a great opportunity to allow people to use their skill sets. Their skills are part of the wealth of the nation. The desks and computers in the country are another asset going to waste. We should be able to do better than going down the route of follies. There is a real opportunity and necessity to help people who want to work keep their dignity and self respect. It will take hard work and innovative thinking and planning. People should be asked to volunteer to help in the planning now.

BTW, there is no tax break for land devaluation. You are taxed on gains. Taxing people on false gains by ignoring losses is not feasible. You cannot get blood out of a rock.
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PostSubject: Re: Prime Time Heckle - The widening hole in the public accounts - carers, ideascampaign.ie   Thu Mar 05, 2009 7:01 pm

Zhou I think it's a bit creepy that we are talking of introducing ideas like water rates and house tax at this point .... it's transfusion stuff at this stage and sounds ominous. I'd agree with you on the water charges - base rate free then the more you use the more you pay. Have you got a neighbour who spends so much time and so much water washing his new Ford Focus that he alone would reverse the town deficit if he had money to be charged.

This kind of a project would be long term or intermediate term though and might entail using voluntary labour like you say, to fix the pipes that are leaking. It's a bit aspirational though but worth thinking about.

What do you think of O'Toole's idea with the pensions ..... ?
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PostSubject: Re: Prime Time Heckle - The widening hole in the public accounts - carers, ideascampaign.ie   Thu Mar 05, 2009 7:06 pm

)

I agreed with a lot of what Tom O'Connor had to say this morning on Morning Ireland. http://www.rte.ie/news/morningireland/index.html

[Specific article
http://www.rte.ie/news/2009/0305/morningireland_av.html?2501707,null,209 ] (Audi)

Amongst other things, he said is was madness to be considering spending 13 billion on the Luas and Metro North. Imo, one billion on new buses and bus infrastructure would be more cost effective by far.

He pointed out that as against that, and vast motorway spending, only 276 million was earmarked in the NDP for renewable energy.

He was the first person I have heard who was thinking strategically rather than just hacking about the place randomly.
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PostSubject: Re: Prime Time Heckle - The widening hole in the public accounts - carers, ideascampaign.ie   Thu Mar 05, 2009 7:13 pm

johnfás wrote:
I've always wondered the fascination of new builds. Give me an 1880s redbrick with character any day.
Yeah they're great - except for the rising damp, dry rot, mould, leaking roof, crumbling walls, draughty windows and floors, warped doors, faulty wiring, backed up plumbing, no central heating and insulation. But apart from those things you can't beat an old house. 
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PostSubject: Re: Prime Time Heckle - The widening hole in the public accounts - carers, ideascampaign.ie   Thu Mar 05, 2009 7:27 pm

Can't listen to the clip. What exactly is F.O'T. proposing? Does he want to retrospectively tax my pension contribution from the last number for years or something ridiculous like that?
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PostSubject: Re: Prime Time Heckle - The widening hole in the public accounts - carers, ideascampaign.ie   Thu Mar 05, 2009 7:37 pm

Zhou_Enlai wrote:
Can't listen to the clip. What exactly is F.O'T. proposing? Does he want to retrospectively tax my pension contribution from the last number for years or something ridiculous like that?

I cant listen to the Tom O'Connor one either. I'll listen later and post a more coherent list of what he said.
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PostSubject: Re: Prime Time Heckle - The widening hole in the public accounts - carers, ideascampaign.ie   Thu Mar 05, 2009 7:54 pm

imokyrok wrote:
johnfás wrote:
I've always wondered the fascination of new builds. Give me an 1880s redbrick with character any day.
Yeah they're great - except for the rising damp, dry rot, mould, leaking roof, crumbling walls, draughty windows and floors, warped doors, faulty wiring, backed up plumbing, no central heating and insulation. But apart from those things you can't beat an old house.

As opposed to poorly built new builds with as many internal problems owing to the fact that they weren't built with any attention to quality, on half finished estates where you pay a couple of grand a year on a management charge... not my cup of tea.
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PostSubject: Re: Prime Time Heckle - The widening hole in the public accounts - carers, ideascampaign.ie   Thu Mar 05, 2009 7:56 pm

My husband, knowing I have a liking for older houses, built me a new house with many of the faults an old one might have - slightly wonky walls, draughty windows, creaky floors...

Surprised
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