Poll: Will this Dáil see a full term? - Support for FF falls 15% (Joe Behan Resigns from the Party)

Guest

Ard-Taoiseach wrote:

cactus flower wrote:

My source is here -
Link

Quote :: The Report says that the pace and intensity of housing investment have arguably been amplified by monetary stimulus, through low interest rates. The strong expansion in the construction sector and the high market valuation of real estate clearly point to the risk of a significant reversal, which could amplify the contractionary effects of real appreciation once a downturn starts.

In 2005, the construction sector in Ireland accounted for approximately 20 percent of the country’s GDP and employed more than 10 percent of the labour force.

Well that source is wrong and I remember freedomlover taking it apart on P.ie. You see, the authors of the report make one critical mistake, they fail to adjust for the value-added of the construction sector. They have not made that adjustment so therefore their calculations are skewed. They fail to understand the construction sector consumes the goods and services of the other industries in Ireland and this brings its contribution to the Irish economy down to 8.3%. The building sector, at its very height, accounted for about 11%. It never accounted for 20%.

It's like buying a house for €200,000. That doesn't add €200,000 to national income. This is because you have to adjust for the cost of the land, building materials, labour, legal fees and so on. This means that the profit margin of, say, €25,000 which the developer pockets when you buy the house is the value-add and it is this €25,000 which is counted in this activity, not the €200,000. The CSO understands that the €25,000 is the correct figure because to count the €200,000 they would be double-counting and distorting the national income statistics. The CSO are the official statistics-gatherers of the State and they bring a far greater rigour to their statistical adjustments than that report and it is for this reason that I believe their figures over that report.

Dan Mclaughlin here has the housing sector at over 9.2% of GDP in 2008. These leaves out road and other infrastructure, schools, other NDP projects and commercial development. Freedomlover or Dan is wrong, but my money is on Dan.

http://www.bankofireland.com/press_room/latest_releases/2008/General_Content_1000241.html

Guest

GusherING wrote:

WorldbyStorm wrote:: GusherING, I find some of what you say regarding a new approach very interesting indeed. I also think you're right. Whoever came in in 2007 would have faced precisely these issues at this point in time. But without ignoring those issues I'm still unsure what people think will be the motive force that would, for example as regards budgets, rip the coalition apart at a vote. I genuinely can't see Lowry or McGrath going - particular not after what the latter has put up with over the past year or so. The FF gene pool Indo's are rock solid. The Green Party has no reason to go, indeed arguably the demographics of the contemporary situation suits them well. With at least one byelection on the horizon and with the opposition potentially able to win at least one of them their centrality to government stability increases. The Green Party TDs look, touch wood, reasonably healthy. Can the same be said for the FF ranks? Which suggests that the GP might be well able to call the shots. There are other issues, despite the down turn it is possible as the Business Post did some weeks back to identify areas to reduce government expenditure without too much general pain.After all big capital projects deferred is somewhat easier than cutting expenditure on health or whatever. That said reduced expenditure, for example in third level is causing pain but generally within institutions and this hasn't yet carried over to students, etc. If the situation worsens radically...

Thanks for the kind words! Smile

You have a point in terms of electoral arithmetic though. It does seem likely that they'll last till 2012 though it won't be easy. My concern is with changing the government. The key is for the opposition not to seize on populism (all of the time) but to articulate a grand vision for the future/critique of the status quo. If they (particularly Labour) fail to do this, well then they're just never going to get into government. And that's a shame in my book. If they do succeed in promoting a genuine alternative (and not in the Mullingar electoral strategy sense), then perhaps they'll turn Cowen into Gordon Brown. But Cowen won't turn into Gordon Brown himself, even if the economy tanks. It requires an alternative narrative to shape the discourse. (End postmodernist lingo here!)

Ah, now had I realised you had a vested interest in their fall ... Smile

But look, I'm torn in terms of the government. I think the GP is probably doing the best job it can under the circumstances, that FF is doing a pretty awful job. I want people in government who will articulate, however limited, a strong view on climate change, etc. But. I'd vastly prefer some components of the opposition to coalesce in a loose alliance, and I wish the GP could be brought onside, then there'd be at least a shot at a left led government. But, in the meantime... well, I'm ignoring the economy and looking at the politics. I agree, if Labour don't make it in 2012 they're in serious trouble with the prospect of SF eventually supplanting them, or even FG if the current shift towards a depoliticisation occurs. Knowing though FF I'd lay good money on them being in power post-2012.

Guest

I was reading thru the previous posts (all well thought out btw) and I was trying to figure out why the governmnet might fall before its next due election date.

There are two scenarios that come to mind;

1. A major party in Government leaves to the opposition benchs.

2. Cowan calls it early.

In option 1, only the Green Party can make a difference. The Indos and the Progressive Democrats are not significant enough.
As has been argued out in previous posts, The Green Party are likely to stay put until they have a real tangible result by way of policy acheivement.

That leaves Cowen. From what I know of his personality, it would seem that he is quite capable of calling an early election if he thinks there is a chance of damaging FG. To damage FG would be the key. He knows that without an increase in FG seats, they will not make a government possable.
FF can pick labour, Greens or even Sinn Fein plus indo's after the next election. Cowen is sitting pretty.
Kenny is not the most inspiring lad in the leadership role. At some point in the next 2-3 years there will be a push on his leadership. Thats when they will be most vulnerable.
If FG select a new leader this year or early next year, Cowen wont move.
If FG wait until 2010/2011, I reckon Cowen will call a GE before they can settle down.

Guest

That's a good point Johnny and makes a lot of sense (although I guess the obvious caveat that Cowen won't go if the broader polling numbers look very poor even if FG goes for someone new in 2010-11). The Phoenix seemed to suggest problems for Kenny in the next six months. Do you think that's too soon?

Guest

WorldbyStorm wrote:: That's a good point Johnny and makes a lot of sense (although I guess the obvious caveat that Cowen won't go if the broader polling numbers look very poor even if FG goes for someone new in 2010-11). The Phoenix seemed to suggest problems for Kenny in the next six months. Do you think that's too soon?

I dont. I would say that FG insider know the writing is on the wall for Kenny. He made a seriously bad judgement error on the Lisbon treaty. Almost 50% of his people voted against and he did not tap into that that. I think he is isolated. Bruton is a great right-hand man and loyal to the bone but I think the political reality is that they need at least 5 more seats and Kenny wont deliver that.
I genuinly hope he stands down soon and allows a leadership "debate" to take place rather that an ignominius "coup" from the back-room boys. I like him because he is genuine but we Irish dont go for the honest and the genuine political leaders. We like our leaders to have a whiff of sulphur about them.

As for polling numbers, I'm not 100% sure FF give a shite about them, Their core support is phenomonal. Their machine is incredible. Their ability to motivate their supporters to vote is unequaled.

I was canvassing last summer in Malahide with Tom Morrissey. We started on a street and within 30 minutes a car pulled up, out got four FF canvassers, and begun to canvass the same street five doors in front of us.
And we were on the same fking side as them.

Guest

cactus flower wrote:: Dan Mclaughlin here has the housing sector at over 9.2% of GDP in 2008. These leaves out road and other infrastructure, schools, other NDP projects and commercial development. Freedomlover or Dan is wrong, but my money is on Dan.

http://www.bankofireland.com/press_room/latest_releases/2008/General_Content_1000241.html

Well I go by what the CSO says since it's their job to actually go and find out these things. They say the building industry accounts for 8.3% of the Irish economy and that is good enough for me. If they say it, it must be true. I'd say we'll be on about 7% by year-end and at about 5% by 2010 by which time the next boom can begin.

Guest

Johnny Keogh wrote:: I was canvassing last summer in Malahide with Tom Morrissey. We started on a street and within 30 minutes a car pulled up, out got four FF canvassers, and begun to canvass the same street five doors in front of us.
And we were on the same fking side as them.

Well, to be fair, Michael McDowell's shilly-shallying hardly endeared the PDs to the Fianna Fáil grass-roots.

Guest

Johnny Keogh wrote:

WorldbyStorm wrote:: That's a good point Johnny and makes a lot of sense (although I guess the obvious caveat that Cowen won't go if the broader polling numbers look very poor even if FG goes for someone new in 2010-11). The Phoenix seemed to suggest problems for Kenny in the next six months. Do you think that's too soon?

I dont. I would say that FG insider know the writing is on the wall for Kenny. He made a seriously bad judgement error on the Lisbon treaty. Almost 50% of his people voted against and he did not tap into that that. I think he is isolated. Bruton is a great right-hand man and loyal to the bone but I think the political reality is that they need at least 5 more seats and Kenny wont deliver that.
I genuinly hope he stands down soon and allows a leadership "debate" to take place rather that an ignominius "coup" from the back-room boys. I like him because he is genuine but we Irish dont go for the honest and the genuine political leaders. We like our leaders to have a whiff of sulphur about them.

As for polling numbers, I'm not 100% sure FF give a shite about them, Their core support is phenomonal. Their machine is incredible. Their ability to motivate their supporters to vote is unequaled.

I was canvassing last summer in Malahide with Tom Morrissey. We started on a street and within 30 minutes a car pulled up, out got four FF canvassers, and begun to canvass the same street five doors in front of us.
And we were on the same fking side as them.

I thought FF and the PDs fought the 2002 election as an outgoing government seeking re-election as a government and that in 2007, they were contesting as two individual parties? I am open to correction on this but if that was the case, the FF crowd probably assumed the gloves were off and behaved as you described because they were told to canvass in this manner.

Guest

Ard-Taoiseach wrote:

cactus flower wrote:: Dan Mclaughlin here has the housing sector at over 9.2% of GDP in 2008. These leaves out road and other infrastructure, schools, other NDP projects and commercial development. Freedomlover or Dan is wrong, but my money is on Dan.

http://www.bankofireland.com/press_room/latest_releases/2008/General_Content_1000241.html

Well I go by what the CSO says since it's their job to actually go and find out these things. They say the building industry accounts for 8.3% of the Irish economy and that is good enough for me. If they say it, it must be true. I'd say we'll be on about 7% by year-end and at about 5% by 2010 by which time the next boom can begin.

This 2007 Forfas study, which states its based on CSO figures, gives construction-related employment at 13%-14%. It is full of lovely graphs and well worth a look, so I am going to post in in the Irish Economy thread as well. I'm going to take another look at your link at see if I can work out if these figures are conflicting, or if there is another explanation.

Forfas study 2007 As this is a bit off topic I'll take anything else on this over to the economy thread, if that's all right with you Ard-Taoiseach Surprised

Guest

I'm sorry to all the decent FF people who want the best for the country, but I have to say that imo this government has disastrously mismanaged the economy, infrastucture, environment and society for reasons of pure self-interest, fecklessness and greed.

Time to go.

Guest

cactus flower wrote:: I'm sorry to all the decent FF people who want the best for the country, but I have to say that imo this government has disastrously mismanaged the economy, infrastucture, environment and society for reasons of pure self-interest, fecklessness and greed.

Time to go.

It's becoming more disastrous daily. It has been time for them to go for a long time - it is time for them to go now for a long time..

Infrastructurally we're in almost a third world condition looking at that water thing last night; that's not all - I think Dublin was allowed to expand in such a way as to become a tumourous growth on the east coast which is now about to invade further in which could have an effect on the west coast eventually. Maybe not though. Time to call a halt to development in Dublin I think if nature hasn't already done that - the Beacon maternity extension cannot be built because of lack of water resources ... I think Dublin might have been allowed to expand for reasons of greed as you say and that has eaten into the natural world around it not to mention the heritage nearby at Tara, affecting people's lives in a way that dehumanises them, making them mortgage slaves and commuting aliens in older communities ( Most commuters not involved in community ).

We won't learn though will we in fairness. Old structures will have to be swept away - the "best of a bad lot" mentality is very strong and the complacency and arrogance of anyone with authority is sickening A cosy office for the Ceann Comhairle at only €100,000 - there exists structures which allow this messing to go on and it's high time that a blitzing went on at a national scale. This is an example of the creativity that the ruling mafia have stood over in their time

Quote :: "Ireland has stifled innovation by creating a legal environment where education through the HEA, HETAC, FETAC, FAS, CAO and the NCCA, and innovation through the IRCHSS, IRCSET, SFI, IDA, HRB, Enterprise Ireland and Forfas, are controlled by obscure agencies. This does not encourage entrepreneurs or innovators, rather it encourages rent-seekers who "work the system", above all other objectives."

Irish Times Innovation Supplement, Charles Larkin and Jacco Thijssen.

But would any other crowd do it differently? Maybe it's time to just vote YES to the next Lisbon.

Fourth Master: Growth Number of posts : 4226 Registration date : 2008-03-11

cactus flower wrote:: I'm sorry to all the decent FF people who want the best for the country, but I have to say that imo this government has disastrously mismanaged the economy, infrastucture, environment and society for reasons of pure self-interest, fecklessness and greed.

Time to go.

Hear Hear.

Guest

On a point of order, I've voted three times in this poll so far...

Guest

evercloserunion wrote:: On a point of order, I've voted three times in this poll so far...

How?

Fourth Master: Growth Number of posts : 4226 Registration date : 2008-03-11

evercloserunion wrote:: On a point of order, I've voted three times in this poll so far...

It's an open poll, votes accepted when not logged in / anonymous.

Did you vote the same way 3 times ?

Guest

EvotingMachine0197 wrote:

evercloserunion wrote:: On a point of order, I've voted three times in this poll so far...

It's an open poll, votes accepted when not logged in / anonymous.

Did you vote the same way 3 times ?

Ah, sure isn't evercloserunion keeping true to the most sacred of democratic institutions in this country, that of voting early and voting often?

Guest

A FF Deputy, Joe Behan, has resigned from the Party having heard Noel Dempsey defend the budget on Morning Ireland.

He was a Councillor for twenty years.
He is a Head Teacher. He says he can't understand how they came to these decisions - cutting services for - medical card decision will have to be reversed.

He mentioned ABA schools, the Firemen in Bray as votes where he had gone against his principles, but had voted with the Party.

Now he will vote on a case by case basis.

Guest

Presumably this will be like the last resignation of a Fianna Fáiler - he will still vote with the Government and will rejoin the party a few weeks later.

Guest

johnfás wrote:: Presumably this will be like the last resignation of a Fianna Fáiler - he will still vote with the Government and will rejoin the party a few weeks later.

I wouldn't be so sure in this case. He sounds as if he is thoroughly p*d off with the Party leadership.

Guest

johnfás wrote:: Presumably this will be like the last resignation of a Fianna Fáiler - he will still vote with the Government and will rejoin the party a few weeks later.

I'm going to predict the threshold will be raised, he'll vote for, and rejoin.
Maybe I'm wrong, and he'll vote against, and rejoin in the new year.

Guest

eoinmn wrote:

johnfás wrote:: Presumably this will be like the last resignation of a Fianna Fáiler - he will still vote with the Government and will rejoin the party a few weeks later.

I'm going to predict the threshold will be raised, he'll vote for, and rejoin.
Maybe I'm wrong, and he'll vote against, and rejoin in the new year.

I'm going to predict a major schism within the Party.

You can listen to Joe Behan here: (about ten past 5)

http://www.rte.ie/radio1/drivetime/

Guest

Nothing better than Fianna Fáilers at each other's throats.

Maybe the Greens will put us all out of our misery and open the trap on the gallows.

Guest

johnfás wrote:: Maybe the Greens will put us all out of our misery and open the trap on the gallows.

It's looking likely. It'd be nice to have a General Election before Christmas. This Government is looking rather unstable the last week. Between Finian McGrath, backbenchers falling out and the Greens feeling uncomfortable - this Government ain't the sure thing it was last year.

Guest

Ard-Taoiseach wrote:

johnfás wrote:: Maybe the Greens will put us all out of our misery and open the trap on the gallows.

It's looking likely. It'd be nice to have a General Election before Christmas. This Government is looking rather unstable the last week. Between Finian McGrath, backbenchers falling out and the Greens feeling uncomfortable - this Government ain't the sure thing it was last year.

Someone would have to chop off their fingers before they would let go of their grip on Power. What a Face

Guest

johnfás wrote:: Nothing better than Fianna Fáilers at each other's throats.

They've always played the role of their own opposition well, and to their benefit.

» New poll sees government satisfaction down to 10% /New Red C Poll
» The Situation in Iceland - Icelandic Government Falls
» How Many People Can Our Planet Support?