Re: ISEQ trading between 4000 and 5000

by youngdan on Tue Apr 01, 2008 6:24 pm

The Independent of Britain reckons we are in a depression. I agree. I see merck is even up a shade today but it would not surprise me if it is down by the end of the day. What does concern me is the fall in metal prices. If this continues it will be another sign of deflation which few expect but with house prices falling so fast who knows.

by **Ard-Taoiseach** on Tue Apr 01, 2008 8:02 pm

youngdan wrote:The Independent of Britain reckons we are in a depression. I agree. I see merck is even up a shade today but it would not surprise me if it is down by the end of the day. What does concern me is the fall in metal prices. If this continues it will be another sign of deflation which few expect but with house prices falling so fast who knows.

Depression? With the World Bank predicting 4.1% growth in the world economy this year, how could that be correct? The Brics aren't going anywhere near depression, Australia is a strong performer, Ireland will continue to out-perform the European average of slow growth and Britain will enter a cyclical slowdown. The US is un-doubtedly in recession now, but depression still looks far away for me.

In other news(and back on topic!), the ISEQ also comfortably out-performed the FTSE and the DAX today by several percentage points.

by youngdan on Tue Apr 01, 2008 8:14 pm

They were referring to the US and the topic included the fact that there were something like 26 million on food stamps which I will be on myself soon enough with the way things are going.

by **Ard-Taoiseach** on Tue Apr 01, 2008 8:19 pm

youngdan wrote:They were referring to the US and the topic included the fact that there were something like 26 million on food stamps which I will be on myself soon enough with the way things are going.

26 million? That's 9% of the whole population of the US! What was the figure when Bill Clinton came to power? Perhaps the percentage was the same then.

by youngdan on Tue Apr 01, 2008 8:48 pm

queue_21938a Thats me tying my hood queue_21938a[1]

by youngdan on Wed Apr 02, 2008 5:24 pm

Here is an article that describes the situation well http://depression2.tv/d2/node/73

by Auditor #9 on Wed Apr 02, 2008 5:42 pm

youngdan wrote:queue_21938a Thats me tying my hood queue_21938a[1]

This queue dan?

Disadvantaged Americans queue for aid in New York.

Do you normally get money in America when you're on the dole? Is that changing now - do they want to give out more food stamps etc. ? I assume you can only get food with them and American food is probably cheaper - is the rationale to not aggravate the disadvantageous balance of payments position America is in?

by youngdan on Wed Apr 02, 2008 6:32 pm

That is me right there in the white jacket. You can tell by my countanence that I had not yet heard about the travails of Chief Yellow Jacket. When you are laid off here you get 6 months dole and then you are done. After that you must convince them that you are a nut-case and then you get more assistance. These payments are fondly referred to as Cuckoo Checks. Nowadays foodstamps are given through a debit card system to eliminate their sale for money at a discount to be used for other purposes. This was a day of great mourning for tavern owners.

by Auditor #9 on Wed Apr 02, 2008 6:38 pm

You look rough. Why don't you move to San Francisco where the weather is less inclement for sleeping outside all year round?

Does it stretch people to get the cuckoo cheques? And can you have them for long before they stick the wires in your brain?

by youngdan on Wed Apr 02, 2008 6:59 pm

That is an excellent plan Auditor. When I suggested this to the missus this was her reply OK studmuffin

by **Ard-Taoiseach** on Mon Apr 07, 2008 10:14 am

The ISEQ is up strongly in morning trade by more than 100 points.

by youngdan on Wed Apr 09, 2008 6:16 pm

Time to repeat my predictios of 9 months ago. I expect this market to drop at least 90% from it's high which would bring it down to about 1000. If the globalists are successfull then the standard of living in Mayo will equal that of Malawi. The Euro heros want Waterford and Warsaw at the same level. Why it would not surprise me if Waterford glass became Warsaw glass. They will try to debase the currency to disguise what is being done and that is why 100 dollar silver is a certainty. The non believers can watch as the economy falls apart. I would now ask for a moments silence for poor Saratoga who wanted to buy Bear Sterns stock at 104.

by youngdan on Fri Apr 11, 2008 4:11 pm

Everyday brings more bad news and while this market has held for a long time, reality will eventually bite. Nervous investors will want to sell before the index goes below 6000. That stock that Atticus was asking about is up 7% on the week and my one Hecla is up 4%. They can be tracked on yahoo finance which I think is the best. The symbols are kaz.l and hl

by Auditor #9 on Fri Apr 11, 2008 9:37 pm

Auditor #9 wrote:The dive is on here - see it live

http://www.ise.ie/app/popup_graph.asp?INDEX_TYPE=

again

by youngdan on Fri Apr 11, 2008 10:05 pm

Today was an interesting day with general electric down 13%, Next week will give retail sales which everything depends on and a lot of prominant companies reporting earnings. There is a lot of pain coming. GM for example has I believe 260 billion borrowed ie bonds outstanding and need a huge cashflow to service this. There will be earth moving bankruptsies that will change political thought here and I presume the same there.

by **Ard-Taoiseach** on Mon Apr 14, 2008 9:43 pm

The ISEQ closed below 6,000 today at 5989 down almost 110 points.

by youngdan on Mon Apr 14, 2008 10:23 pm

Ard-Taoiseach. I am tired of your constant pessimism. It has really been a mystery to me how this market has held up so well for the last year or so. What finally burst the bubble was the hiatus in the real estate market caused by uncertainty over stamp duty in the leadup to the election. Construction which was 16% of the economy seems to be now finished. There are another 400 jobs gone in Waterford it seems. Are the government revenue figures released each month because I would like to mark it on my calender. I have no doubt that this leg down will break 5000. I am sticking to my prediction of a more than 90% fall.

by **Ard-Taoiseach** on Mon Apr 14, 2008 10:33 pm

youngdan wrote:Ard-Taoiseach. I am tired of your constant pessimism. It has really been a mystery to me how this market has held up so well for the last year or so. What finally burst the bubble was the hiatus in the real estate market caused by uncertainty over stamp duty in the leadup to the election. Construction which was 16% of the economy seems to be now finished. There are another 400 jobs gone in Waterford it seems. Are the government revenue figures released each month because I would like to mark it on my calender. I have no doubt that this leg down will break 5000. I am sticking to my prediction of a more than 90% fall.

That's actually quite wrong. If you examine this document, you will see that building accounts for about 9% of GNP and 8% of GDP.

I'm very dubious about your view of a 90% retracement in the ISEQ. That's below virtually all the ISEQ's component's break-up values. It's, frankly, an impossibility imo. What about P/E ratios? What about dividends? What about company cash reserves?

by youngdan on Mon Apr 14, 2008 10:52 pm

What is the p/e of a company that is losing money. Whatever percentage it was it is going to be zero percentage soon

by **Ard-Taoiseach** on Mon Apr 14, 2008 11:00 pm

youngdan wrote:What is the p/e of a company that is losing money. Whatever percentage it was it is going to be zero percentage soon

There's few companies in loss on the ISEQ. The banks, the building firms and many of the other firms are in healthy profit and have strong growth prospects for many years to come.

by youngdan on Mon Apr 14, 2008 11:37 pm

Well if the building firms are looking forward to years of profit then I can look forward to The Tooth Fairy coming.

by **Ard-Taoiseach** on Mon Apr 21, 2008 10:41 pm

The ISEQ is holding some margin above 6,000 the past few days. It closed slightly lower(30 points) this evening.

ISEQ 3 month chart

Looking at this chart, it seems to have hit off a resistance point around 6,000 and has rallied from there. Here's hoping it continues to re-trace its losses and get back up to 7,000. So far it has avoided youngdan's 90% fall.

by youngdan on Tue Apr 22, 2008 1:03 am

Well correct me if I am wrong in the figures but my understanding is that we are down almost 40% from the high already. I am surprised that it has held up so well for so long. I just ask myself what will it take to rattle it. If I had been told that oil would be 117.53 by the onset of the driving season I would be even more baffled.

by **Ard-Taoiseach** on Tue Apr 22, 2008 9:10 pm

youngdan wrote:Well correct me if I am wrong in the figures but my understanding is that we are down almost 40% from the high already. I am surprised that it has held up so well for so long. I just ask myself what will it take to rattle it. If I had been told that oil would be 117.53 by the onset of the driving season I would be even more baffled.

So, when do you see the ISEQ at 1000? By December? Will the FTSE, Dax, Cac and Dow all be equally traduced? How can you put the ISEQ at 1000 since that is far below the break-up value of many of the companies listed on the ISEQ? Kerry, élan, CRH and Glanbia are all worthy stocks as are many other on the ISEQ which would suggest an ISEQ at 1000 being beyond the realms of sense.

by Auditor #9 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 9:34 pm

Auditor #9 wrote:
Auditor #9 wrote:The dive is on here - see it live

http://www.ise.ie/app/popup_graph.asp?INDEX_TYPE=

again